So, tonight, while watching "Jason Bourne" for the umpteenth time, I wanted to update some Bakken wells.
I randomly chose 2Q12.
I went to the very first well at that site.
Here is the well:
21034, 3,499, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Bugs 27-22 1H, Poe, Bakken, t3/12; cum 278K 5/18; off-line as of 5/18; cum 375K 12/22; and, off line once again.
Here is recent production (I can't make this stuff up), 15K over 22 days extrapolates to 20K over 30 days:
My hunch: Warren Buffett has better "intel" than the Biden administration. LOL.
AXP: wow, wow, wow. American Express (AXP) just increased its dividend from 52 cents to 60 cents (that's a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend) -- Warren Buffett will sleep well tonight. LOL. Laser focused on dividends. Go ahead and invest in bonds; I'm sticking with equities. LOL. [Later: QCOM is also raising its quarterly dividend,]
Marketing: we need more "Boar's Head" commercials and fewer "woke" commercials.
Another hunch: 44,000 hours of "January 6" video was released to "Tucker" on one condition -- Tucker was to report "January 6" without bias -- if reported "with bias," McCarthy would release the 44,000 hours to ABC, CBS, and NBC. Fight's on.
Biden's tax proposals: I fully support.
Jason Bourne: one can never watch "Jason Bourne" too many times. LOL.
Alexa: knows exactly what I like.
******************* Summer Project
********************** For The Archives
If I had my life to live over again, I would have spent more time in England and Scotland.
US crude oil in storage decreased by 1.7 million bbls; at 478.5 million bbls, the amount of crude oil in storage is 7% above the five-year average; tell me again why we're worried about the SPR?
US crude oil in storage now out to 31.9 days, a "recent" record
if "push comes to shove" the frackers can re-fill the SPR in weeks
US crude oil imports: yawn.
US refiners operated at 86.0% of their operable capacity.
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 100,000 bbls last week; and remain 7% below the rive-year average;
jet fuel supplied was up 2.1% compared to the same four-week period last year.
Compare the graph above with the graph of December 18, 2019, just weeks before Covid-19 lockdowns:
Notice: July, 2019, we peaked out at about 9.7 million bpd. We're closing in on that number once again, and it's only March, and EVs have made record inroads.
AAPL: with the horde of cash that Apple, Inc, continues to build, a reader asked what Apple, Inc, is likely to buy / acquire in the future. I would have no idea; Apple tends to acquire relatively small tech companies that occupy a particular niche. Wiki provides a list of mergers and acquisitions by Apple.
******************************** Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 44.
WTI: $76.55.
Natural gas: $2.594.
Four new permits, #39704 - #39707, inclusive:
Operator: Oasis
Field: Deep Water Creek Bay (McLean County)
Comments:
Oasis has permits for foru MHA Moose wells inn SWSE 7-150-90,
to be sited 1008 FSL and between 2200 FEL and 2335 FEL
Two permits canceled:
Liberty Resources: two Elroy permits in Williams County, Temple oil field;
Nineteen permits renewed:
BR (11): Five Gorhman permits, Bailey oil field, Dunn County; three CCU Badger permits, Corral Creek, McKenzie County; two Saddle Butte permits, North Fork, McKenzie County; one Curtis permit, North Fork, McKenzie County;
Zavanna (6): six Shorthorn permits in Williams County, Stockyard Creek;
Petroshale (2): two Bear Chase North permits inn McKenzie County, Spotted Horn oil field;
Jobs: US private payrolls rise by 242,000. Better than expected. Forecast: 205,000. In January, 2023, 119,000, and that was a revision upward from 206,000. From where are all there workers coming? Wage growth declined slightly. On Friday the government expects to report 225,000 new jobs. The US economy is on fire. In a good way. The Russian economy is on fire, also, but mostly due to drones.
JPow:Congress in shock!"Higher, sooner, longer."
AAPL: link here. "Easily the most popular." "Easily. Most. Popular."
Japan: egg crisis worse than ever.
Sweden: in deep recession; projected to last until 2025.
France: even by French standards, this is a pretty severe work action.
issue: Macron wants to raise retirement age from 62 years of age to 64 years of age.
but look at this: to be eligible for pension, must contribute for 31 years
full pension available only after 67 years of age
eligible for pension after ten years of work / contribution
this suggests to me (and Peter Zeihan has addressed this) this is not simply a pension funding problem; the bigger issue is the decreasing labor force over time -- that may be the bigger issue
how many Americans would qualify for social security if the 31-year rule were in effect; most spouses would not qualify for their own pension
Britain: energy issues in France (work action / strikes) will spill over into Britain.
India: facing brown-outs and black-outs this summer.
Thursday, March 9, 2023: 34 for the month; 196 for the quarter, 196 for the year 39142, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 4-20H 39136, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 5-5HH,
Wednesday, March 8, 2023: 32 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 194 for the year None.
RBN Energy: supply / demand imbalances will make the USA a leading exporter of RD and SAF.
U.S. production of renewable diesel (RD) is rising fast and
production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will soon follow suit,
driven largely by federal and state incentives.
But U.S. demand for both
RD and SAF is growing at a more measured pace, mostly because they are
throttled by a number of other governmental policies, including the
level of blending mandates set by the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA).
As we see it, the net effect of this disconnect between domestic
supply and demand will be the U.S. becoming a net exporter of RD this
year and a net exporter of SAF in 2025 — but only after a spike in SAF
imports in 2023-24. Yes, it’s complicated, but with public-sector
policies impacting both sides of the supply/demand scale, did you really
expect it wouldn’t be? In today’s RBN blog, we look at two more energy
products the U.S. will be exporting.
This is the fourth blog in our series about crude oil and product
exports, where we’re looking at what’s driving the increased flows of
U.S.-sourced hydrocarbons to export terminals and overseas markets. The
first three episodes focused on crude oil exports, which have been ramping up since the
long-standing ban on most crude exports was lifted more than seven years
ago. Way back then, RD and SAF weren’t really on anyone’s radar — but
they sure are now.
Before we dive into what’s ahead for RD and SAF imports and exports,
let’s do a quick-as-we-can review of what RD and SAF are, how they’re
produced, and what’s driving their fast-increasing production. (If
you’re familiar with all that, skip ahead to the “RD and SAF Imports and
Exports” subhead a few paragraphs below.)
Before we get started: quick -- what is the list price of a new Rivian pick-up truck?
From a year ago, this certainly did not age well, with regard to EVs:
I suspect that six months from now the "dam will break" and there
will be such a huge supply of automobiles and trucks there will be no
problem finding the truck one wants. I'm not convinced prices will come
down all that much but the supply will be incredible. Folks doubt me, but
I know I'm correct. The tea leaves have told me that. And that also
means a lot of used cars will also end up on the market.
And
late 2022, and going into 2023, we're going to see the same thing with
EVs. No less than thirty-seven auto manufacturers will be bringing EVs
to market and they've all said they will start to bring those cars to
market NLT 2023. So, "NLT 2023" begins in 2022. Perhaps late 2022.
How fast things change:
The Fed's "higher, sooner, longer" policy will kill EVs. With free money -- zero percent interest -- a lot of folks could afford to dabble in hobbies and science experiments but with a fed rate of seven percent on the horizon, all of a sudden, things get serious.
We start with this headline and this story. Pay attention to what is buried at the very end of the article.
The fear of many investors regarding Rivian is becoming a reality.
For many months now, the automaker's struggles to ramp up production due to disruptions in its supply chain have raised concerns that the Irvine, California-based company may need to raise capital.
These fears were confirmed when Rivian announced on February 28, 2023, a drop in its cash position. Rivian had cash and cash equivalents of $12.1 billion on hand at the end of December, down from $13.8 billion at the end of the third quarter and $15.5 billion as of June 30.
Net cash used to fund its operations for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $1.45 billion, up compared to $1.1 billion million for the same period in 2021. For the year 2022, the company burned $5.05 billion, almost the double of the $2,62 billion it used during the previous year.
At the rate at which Rivian was burning cash, the question arises whether the firm will have to raise additional capital to finance its operations and expansion by the end of the year as the automaker is building a second plant in Eastern Georgia and plans to start production of a smaller, more affordable vehicle, the R2 series, in 2026.
CEO RJ Scaringe was not reassuring when he admitted that the company, which manufactures the R1S SUV, the R1T pickup truck and the EDV van at its Normal, Illinois, plant, may have a demand problem.
That story wwas only sixteen hours old, meaning it was posted March 7, 2023. But just one hour later this story was posted:
From the linked story:
According to the company’s Q4 earnings release on February 28, 2023, Rivian ended the quarter with over $12 billion in cash and equivalents after burning through $1.4 billion during the period.
The company said on its earnings call that followed:
We remain confident that our cash and cash equivalents can fund our operations through 2025.
Although the EV start-up isn’t in desperate need of cash (right now), Rivian does have a full plate this year as it ramps production of the R1 and RCV platforms while developing the next-generation R2 architecture slated to arrive in 2026.
Meanwhile, CEO RJ Scaringe says “equally important to ramping production” is Rivian’s drive toward profitability.
Rivian is losing money on each vehicle it produces (about three times as much), but this is to be expected as the EV maker works toward full production capabilities at its Normal, Illinois, factory.
Is anyone paying attention?
Rivian is losing money on each vehicle it produces (about three times as
much), but this is to be expected as the EV maker works toward full
production capabilities at its Normal, Illinois, factory.
