We've Jumped The Shark: DOE With "Low Confidence" Says Covid Was A Lab Escape; Only US Agency To Go That Far; Now Nord Stream Explosion Carried Out By Zelensky -- March 8, 202

Jobs: US private payrolls rise by 242,000. Better than expected. Forecast: 205,000. In January, 2023, 119,000, and that was a revision upward from 206,000. From where are all there workers coming? Wage growth declined slightly. On Friday the government expects to report 225,000 new jobs. The US economy is on fire. In a good way. The Russian economy is on fire, also, but mostly due to drones. 

JPow: Congress in shock! "Higher, sooner, longer."

AAPL: link here. "Easily the most popular." "Easily. Most. Popular."

Japan: egg crisis worse than ever.

Sweden: in deep recession; projected to last until 2025.

France: even by French standards, this is a pretty severe work action.

• issue: Macron wants to raise retirement age from 62 years of age to 64 years of age.
• but look at this: to be eligible for pension, must contribute for 31 years
• full pension available only after 67 years of age
• eligible for pension after ten years of work / contribution
• this suggests to me (and Peter Zeihan has addressed this) this is not simply a pension funding problem; the bigger issue is the decreasing labor force over time -- that may be the bigger issue
• how many Americans would qualify for social security if the 31-year rule were in effect; most spouses would not qualify for their own pension

Britain: energy issues in France (work action / strikes) will spill over into Britain.

India: facing brown-outs and black-outs this summer.

Headline (my reaction: LOL): 

JPow on his way to the US Senate:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $77.38.

Natural gas: $2.627.

Thursday, March 9, 2023: 34 for the month; 196 for the quarter, 196 for the year
39142, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 4-20H
39136, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 5-5HH,

Wednesday, March 8, 2023: 32 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 194 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: supply / demand imbalances will make the USA a leading exporter of RD and SAF.

U.S. production of renewable diesel (RD) is rising fast and production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will soon follow suit, driven largely by federal and state incentives.

But U.S. demand for both RD and SAF is growing at a more measured pace, mostly because they are throttled by a number of other governmental policies, including the level of blending mandates set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

As we see it, the net effect of this disconnect between domestic supply and demand will be the U.S. becoming a net exporter of RD this year and a net exporter of SAF in 2025 — but only after a spike in SAF imports in 2023-24. Yes, it’s complicated, but with public-sector policies impacting both sides of the supply/demand scale, did you really expect it wouldn’t be? In today’s RBN blog, we look at two more energy products the U.S. will be exporting.

This is the fourth blog in our series about crude oil and product exports, where we’re looking at what’s driving the increased flows of U.S.-sourced hydrocarbons to export terminals and overseas markets. The first three episodes focused on crude oil exports, which have been ramping up since the long-standing ban on most crude exports was lifted more than seven years ago. Way back then, RD and SAF weren’t really on anyone’s radar — but they sure are now.

Before we dive into what’s ahead for RD and SAF imports and exports, let’s do a quick-as-we-can review of what RD and SAF are, how they’re produced, and what’s driving their fast-increasing production. (If you’re familiar with all that, skip ahead to the “RD and SAF Imports and Exports” subhead a few paragraphs below.)