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Friday, March 4, 2022

Idle Rambling -- March 4, 2022

When were sanctions first imposed on Iran? 1979. Have they worked? 

A reader presented me with some CIA Fact Book country data. The data came from another source, but for all intents and purposes, it was CIA Fact Book country data. The reader asked me if sanctions will work with regard to Russia.

Great, great question. I assume most folks just have an "emotional" response, quickly answering, "yes" or "no" or "how would I know?" LOL. 

But, not-ready-for-prime-time, I went through the logic. Mr Spock  -- of Star Trek, not of child development, fame -- would have been proud. If Mr Spock were asked that question he would work through it logically and even though he and I might take different logical "trails" we would both come to the same conclusion. 

I won't post my "not-ready-for-prime-time" thought process -- I don't need all the push back. 

But bottom line:

  • for Iran, sanctions won't work.
  • for Russia, sanctions will work.

But that doesn't mean sanctions are or aren't the answer. Even if sanctions work or don't work, it doesn't mean we won't see the same outcome for both situations, Iran and Russia. 

So, that means there are two questions, not one.

The first question: will sanctions work in either Iran or Russia?

The second question: is the first question relevant? 

End of rambling. Part 1.

Part II. More rambling.

Has the appropriate western agency or agencies asked these two questions? 

One agency that has certainly asked these two questions and worked through the logic is the US CIA. One of the many core competencies the CIA has is its psychological analysis of world leaders. 

Although Mr Spock, the CIA, and I most likely went through different pathways, different steps, my hunch is we all came to the same conclusion, because we are all logical. I'm no Mr Spock (LOL) and although I've ... well, let's not go there ... I don't have the expertise or the heavy duty computers the CIA has, the logic is very, very straightforward.

If you use logic to answer the two questions, you should be very, very concerned. As I'm sure the CIA is.  

It helps explain why President Biden is responding the way he is.

End of rambling. Part II.

Part III. More rambling.

The better part of valor tells me I should stop with Part II. But I can't resist. This one is really, really easy, and I assume we would all come to the same answer. With whom is the psychological analysis more difficult: the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenie, or Vladimir Putin? 

End of rambling. No more parts.

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Can't Resist

I mentioned that regardless of whether sanctions will or won't work, the outcome may be the same. 

There is however a huge, huge difference, and why the two situations (Iran and Russia) are so different.

I'm not going to explain. Again, I don't need the push back.

But I will provide a hint.

Of all the things one associates with Albert Einstein, what is the "one thing" most associated with Albert Einstein? One "thing." It's not "relativity." Something more basic and more easily understood.

If you answer correctly, it all fits.

Week 9: February 27, 2022 -- March 5, 2022

Top story of the week:

  • Joe Biden is still president.
  • Joe Biden will put Kamala Harris in charge of the US response to Russia-Ukraine conflict 

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

  • Natural gas.
  • A mechanized division won't take Kiev; it will take tens of thousands of pairs of boots on the ground to take Kiev.
  • Crude oil surges in prices as White House considers ban on importing Russian oil.  
  • More and more evidence there is no spare crude oil capacity.
  • Pemex loses more money.
  • Another global SPR release.

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

Wells:

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Natural gas

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Oh My Goodness: Oil Surges At The Close, Going Into The Weekend; Seven New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed; Nice Halo Effect -- March 4, 2022

Covid-19: it's way too early to tell for sure, but the vaccine data released by the CDC this week suggests the vaccine "rollout" program in the US is quickly coming to an end. 

The numbers suggest folks that plan on being immunized are immunized and the only ones getting their booster shots. Those not planning on getting immunized will probably not get immunized unless their livelihoods (jobs) require it. 
The vaccine won't be mandated by the government (no vaccine passports; no "yellow" vaccine certificates); it will all be left up to employees and local jurisdictions.Theme parks will probably establish their own rules but will be quite flexible. Masks will be mandated in rare exceptions, e.g., airports and while flying (which, of course, in the latter case, is done all for show since air filtration system on commercial aircraft are second to none for filtering air).

Nothing is so bad that it can't get worse, see these headlines:

  • Europe turns to South Africa for coal as it shuns Russia (Greta's head is exploding);
  • energy crisis in Europe worsens as natural gas prices double in a week;
  • the UK has no credible plan for its energy transition (maybe Ms Granholm does)
  • US gasoline prices surge by 20 cents in a week (so why hasn't President Biden issued an executive order to life federal excise taxes on gasoline, already; if he did, Governor Newsom would follow suit in California)

Oil:

  • WTI: up 6.8%; up $7.33; closed at $115.00.
  • Brent: up 6.6%; up $7.31; closed at $117.80.

Headline: as I noted earlier today, Biden is leading from behind. 

Now we learn that the White House is considering ban on Russian oil imports, after pressure from the rest of the world, including Ukraine and Nancy Pelosi. My hunch: he called Jay Powell to find out how that would affect the fight on inflation. It's counterintuitive, but rising energy prices are, in fact, deflationary. Banning oil from Russia is a two-fer for the government:

    • it makes Jay Powell's job easier fighting inflation; and,
    • it allows President Biden to blame high gasoline prices on "doing the right thing," banning oil from Russian (and kowtowing to Nancy Pelosi, or calling her bluff -- she represents the state that will soon see $7-diesel and $6-gasoline).

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$115.00
3/4/202203/04/202103/04/202003/04/201903/04/2018
Active Rigs3115506859

Seven new permits, #38805 - #38811, inclusive:

  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Winner (Williams County)
  • Comments: 
    • CPEUSC has permits for seven wells in SESW 12-158-100; the wells will be sited 350 FSL and between 1520 FWL and 1695 FWL; 
    • the permits: three (3) DeFrance; four (4) Fantuz.

Six permits renewed:

  • SHD: three Buffalo permits; two Moose permits; and, one Rocky permit, all in McLean County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38047, 828, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH, Big Bend, minimal production,
  • 37676, 4,095, MRO, Copeland USA 34-31H, another huge MRO well, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 169K 1/22 
    • most neighboring wells still off line, but at least two with nice halo effect;

Production profile for the MRO DUC reported today:

  • 37676:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231268752665311561611854670
BAKKEN12-2021211287712972596326312258620
BAKKEN11-20213032104321431486352499514800
BAKKEN10-20213137831380511695350537493780
BAKKEN9-20212959811592603511468657668210
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-2021220013278078

Another Company Leaving California -- At Least Parts Of The Company -- March 4, 2022

Companies leaving California are tracked here

Now this: Florida's governor DeSantis announces that global shipping company, Sea-Lead Shipping, is moving part of their operations from California to Jacksonville. Link here

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MSFT

Darling of Wall Street late 2021. Then sold off early, 2022, with tech sell-off and oil surging.

March 4, 2022: market down today, but oil and oil companies did well; some surged (OXY up 17%).  UNP surged. MSFT sold off, dropping 2.6%; off $7.75, and trading at $288. "One hour ago": Boston Business Journal: Microsoft completes $20 billion acquisition of Nuance.

  • Burlington, MA-based
  • deal announced one year ago
    • just days ago, UK anti-trust regulators approved the deal, the last major step in the merger process;
    • received US approval last year;
  • Nuance: one of the largest software-development firms in Massachusetts
    • known for helping Apple build its Siri virtual assistant
    • incorporated in 1992 as Visioneer; changed its name to ScanSoft in 1999; became Nuance Communications in 2005.
    • revenue approx $1.5 billion in FY2020 with 62% coming from its healthcare segment
  • represents latest step in Microsoft's industry-specific cloud strategy;
  • second-largest deal may by MSFT after its purchase of LinkedIn fro $26 billion in 2016;
  • how Nuance fits MSFT's business strategy:

The company’s healthcare delivery solutions like Nuance electronic health record (EHR) services, Dragon Ambient eXperience (DAX), Dragon Medical Virtual Assistant, Dragon Medical One are expected to witness momentum amid and after the pandemic. Microsoft added that Nuance solutions are leveraged by nearly 77% of hospitals as well as used by more than 55% of physicians and 75% of radiologists in the United States.

MSFT:
  • total cash: $125 billion;
  • operating cash flow: $85 billion
  • no one is shorting MSFT

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Impossible To Keep Up With Blogging -- March 4, 2022

OXY: up 14%. Just saying. As of yesterday, I've been suggesting that whatever operators paid to get into the Permian two years ago was too little. Again, Warren Buffett, backing Vicki Hollub was brilliant. Meanwhile, EOG is up only 1.5%. Separating the wheat from the chaff.

Dow is down 400 points or something like; I forgot and not in the mood to re-look, and yet the portfolios of some folks are doing very, very well.

Shell: no moral compass. That's fine. Makes for a nice portfolio. Shell will buy Russian Urals for a $28.50 discount. Putin is leaving a lot of money on the table, as they say. I'm not sure he's playing chess any more, much less poker. If he is, he's losing to the house. What Shell is financing: https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1499761849302192132. Pretty sad. I think they're the same company that went "green" to save humanity, along with BP.

"As it should be": Shakespeare, did he say that? NYC won't reinstate fired unvaccinated public employees.

"Don't cry for me, California": did Madonna sing that? The US just saw the biggest one-day surge in gasoline since 2005.

Doomberg: earlier I mentioned that I was upset that Doomberg will now become a subscription service. Not to worry. Doomberg will be replaced by Common Sense. First up: the West's green delusions empowered Putin. I don't know if this is accurate but many are suggesting that. 

LNG: record high spot prices in Asia. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova.

SRE: all of a sudden, those three new LNG export terminals are looking very, very good. 

Is anyone paying attention? Going into the weekend:

Reason #4 Why I Love To Blog -- Readers Educate Me -- March 4, 2022

Updates

Later, 4:10 p.m. CT: UNP closed up $9.19 / share; closed at $265.65. Held the gain after hours. Whoo-hoo. I can buy Sophia a new pair of shoes. LOL.

Later, 12:28 p.m. CT: this is insane. How high will UNP surge today? It's up $8.11 / share now.

Original Post 

This was obvious to everyone but me ten years ago. I've long forgotten what I posted but a reader told me that "trucking" and "rails" compete. When things are bad for one, things are generally bad for the other.

I took that to heart.

Earlier today I posted that readers would do well to look at railroads.

Today, UNP:  


Last September (2021): $190.

Now, why is UNP doing so well. 

Two reasons:

  • US economy is surging; and
  • diesel is costing upwards of $6.00 / gallon

This Is What Putin Never Counted On -- March 4, 2022

Why Russian oil can't find buyers even as crude soars above $100 / bbl. Link here. Or direct to paywall at MarketWatch

Biden: leading from behind.

  • about the only US politician refusing to sanction Russian oil; even Pelosi says to sanction Russian oil;
  • but killed the Keystone XL first day in office;
  • keeps the leasing permitorium in place; but,
  • can't bring himself to sanction Russian oil.
  • but he will eventually come around. Leading from behind.

Stories on Russian economy: a race against time is tracked here.

************************
Something The Boston Marathon Bomber Never Counted On

Link here

US Supreme Court reimposes death sentence for Boston Marathon bomber. Now, let's schedule the execution and bring a bit of closure.

The Biden administration, like its permitorium on oil easing, has also ordered a moratorium on executions. 

Whatever.

Greta's Head Explodes; John Kerry Makes Symbolic Flight To Kyoto; US Secretary Energy Asking, "What's Biofuel"? March 4, 2022

Nope, none of that happened (as far as I know) but apparently this is happening, oh my goodness -- link here:

In one statement, Americans see the cost of biofuel (ethanol): higher price of gasoline and using corn for fuel. (Yes, I know.)

******************
Paul Ehrlich

Link here.

Update: Population -- US Cities And Metropolitan Statistical Areas -- 2020 Census

Wiki entry, metropolitan statistical areas.

US cities by population, wiki entry.

It makes little sense, for the things I am interested in, to track the population of cities. I learned that when I lived in San Antonio, TX, and worked in Wakefield, New Jersey.

What is important is population of metropolitan statistical areas. 

Having said that, looking at "cities," not MSAs:

  • among the states, cities:
    • Texas has the fourth largest city, Houston, behind Chicago, Los Angeles and some city on the east coast whose name escape me now;
    • of the top ten cities by population, two are in Texas; three are in California
    • but go to top eleven cities and both Texas and California each have three cities
    • going to top thirteen cities, Texas beats California, 4 - 3
    • we have to go all the way to the top seventeen cities before California and Texas are again equal;
    • although the eight cities may move around a bit, it's unlikely the 4 - 4 tie will ever change in my lifetime
  • For MSAs:
    • the top five change slightly;
    • now, two of the five MSAs are in Texas; only one in California
    • interestingly enough, among the top ten MSAs in the US, only one is in California
    • but move to the top twenty, and a number of California MSAs make the list
    • interestingly enough, as a city, Houston beats Dallas but as MSAs, Dallas-FtWorth-Arlington beats Houston-Woodlands-Sugar Land
    • San Antonio-New Braunfels comes in at #24 but, wow, California has a lot of MSAs in the top 25

Dumb and Dumber: Putin And Granholm -- March 4, 2022

Quality matters, link here:

  • some US Atlantic coast refiners will allow US crude to substitute for Urals; will cost them to make change;

Why Russian oil can't find buyers even as crude soars above $100 / bbl. Link here. Or direct to paywall at MarketWatch.

Stories on Russian economy: a race against time is tracked here.

  • Putin's fortress Russia is crumbling: this is probably the best article and the fact that it is in The Economist speaks volumes, a left wing magazine that generally favors Russia over US whenever it suits them.
  • Aljazeera: what's awaiting Russia may be much worse than the chaos of 1990s. If Putin does not change course -- and fast -- he has ten days -- the clock started ticking March 3, 2022 -- Russia may find itself in an economic catastrophe akin to that of 1918. What happened in 1918? Oh, yeah, that's right? Where did that revolution start? Need to re-read Dr Zhivago.
  • Did Putin just blink: "Russia has no ill intentions towards its neighbors." Calls for international cooperation to return, for relations to normalize. He needs to hire Jen Psaki.

Jen Psaki, looking pretty uncomfortable in this clip (play it without the sound):

  • building the Keystone XL pipeline would have taken too long, and would not have helped;
  • renewable energy -- that's the answer -- four million acres of solar panels; eight years instead

Dumb and dumber: link here

Demand destruction: this is a poorly written article, especially for Reuters. It reads as if the writer had a them -- demand destruction -- but then couldn't find corroboration.

High gasoline prices?  

The good news: diesel is no more expensive than highest grade gasoline out in Malibu, CA. Link here. A reader tells me gasoline is $6.55 / gallon in Los Angeles. What folks don't realize is this: Californians have very long commutes. It's not unusual to have to re-fuel three times weekly just for work.

Known all along: how cheap energy -- fracking -- was killed by Green lies and Russian propaganda. Link here

Britain has one of the richest and thickest seams of shale: the Bowland shale across Lancashire and Yorkshire contains many decades of supply. Fracking it would mean drilling small holes down about one mile, then cracking the rocks with millimetre-wide fractures and catching the gas as it flowed out over the next few decades. Experience in America showed this could be done without any risk of contaminating ground water, which is near the surface, or threatening buildings. The seismic tremors that have caused all the trouble are so slight they could not possibly do damage and were generally far smaller than those from mining, construction or transport. The well pads would be hundreds of times smaller than the concrete bases of wind farms producing comparable amounts of energy.

US Economy Is Surging -- March 4, 2022

Link here:

  • jobs rose a surprisingly strong 678,000.
  • unemployment edged lower: 3.8%.
  • wage inflation? What wage inflation? Wages flat.

Target, the retail store: hiking minimum wage to $24 / hour in some locations. Link here

Prior to the jobs report: Dow was running about 300 points in the red. 

After the jobs report: 302 points in the red, pre-market opening, 8:10 a.m. CT. Such a strong jobs report will "force" the Fed to raise rates. But only a 25 basis points. But any rise in interest rates will simply corroborate the strength of the US economy. Let's go, Brandon. Go get 'em.

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

Another week of not watching CNBC

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 4, 2022

$200: London-based hedge fund sees $200-oil if restrictions / sanctions are placed on Russian energy exports. $200-oil is unlikely -- already there is chatter that:

a) Europe can get through next winter without Russia's natural gas; and,
b) Russia is having trouble finding buyers for its oil

Forecast, not mine, other:

  • European recession is a given;
  • US must "crash" its own economy to save Europe:
    • US must do whatever it takes to get US production above 13.25 million bopd; and,
    • what it takes to get US refineries operating at max capacity to export refined products to Europe

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$110.403/4/202203/04/202103/04/202003/04/201903/04/2018
Active Rigs3115506859

Friday, March 4, 2022: 7 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year

  • 38488, conf, Eagle Operating, M Miller 29-9,
  • 38419, conf, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-20-17-7H,
  • 38124, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 4-8H,

RBN Energy: US midstream consolidation continues on many fronts, part 4

Amid all the energy-market excitement of the past few months — the soaring demand for LNG, the march to $100/bbl crude oil, sky-high propane prices, and the like — there also has been a continuing consolidation and repositioning in the U.S. midstream sector. While midstream M&A activity has been all over the map, literally and figuratively, it also has revealed discernible themes, chief among them a push to increase the scale and efficiency of gathering systems. Also evident is the desire to expand into growing production areas and, for some energy giants, to either buy out stakes held by joint venture partners or absorb midstream master limited partnerships they had spun off a few years ago. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss a variety of recent midstream deals and what they tell us about 2022’s energy market.

Just How Bad Is It If One's National Economy (GDP) Contracts By 35%? March 4, 2022

The imploding Russian economy is tracked here.  

Yesterday it was reported that Russia's economy was likely to contract by 35%, annualized. 

I didn't think much about that. The Russian economy is smaller than that of Texas, and the memes regarding Moscow's economy are mostly centered around babuschkas standing in line for bread. A contraction of 35% in such an economy didn't excite me.

I guess I was wrong.

From social media: Russian GDP to shrink 35% annualized? That's horrific. Makes the Great Depression fall of 12.9% in 1932 look like a cakewalk.

So, now, finally, that 35% contraction put in perspective. 

And some think that 35% contraction prediction is understated. 

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The Movie Page

TCM: their line-up is never random.

Today's feature: Cromwell. Oliver Cromwell, not royalty, helped overthrow the Stuart monarchy, and as lord protector (1653 - 1658), he raised England's status once more to that of a leading European power from the decline it had gone through since the death of Queen Elizabeth 1. He oversaw the beheading of Charles 1 and "ruled" England for four years (1654 - 1658). His health gave out in 1658, he contracted malaria, and died in London. Charles II was restored to the throne. 
Alec Guinness was an incredible "Cromwell." It was impossible to watch/hear Richard Harris as Rod Stewart. Sorry. 
At the 7th Moscow International Film Festival in 1971 it won the award for "Best Actor" (Richard Harris), and was nominated for the Golden Prize as Best Picture. 
My hunch: this movie is not showing in Moscow this week.

Following this movie, was a "short": The Declaration of Independence. Delaware was key.

***********************
Shipping

Holy mackerel: shipping lines Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and Ocean Network Express -- which together make up half of the world's container shipping capacity -- have suspended service to Russia

There was a lot of discussion the other day about Russian tankers transporting oil. 

It appears India has figured this out: India won't worry about day-rates for tankers; won't worry about insurance of tankers; won't worry about sanctions on Russia. When it comes to shipping, India is telling Russia: we'll negotiate the price when the ship shows up to port and is ready to unload. But, no, we aren't going to pay for shipping costs, insurance, or anything else connected with the actual transportation. 

*******************************
This Is Truly Scary

Remember, this comes out at the same time Phil Mickelson was promoting a Saudi Sand Golf Association because he was unhappy with his paltry earnings from the PGA, Callaway, KPMG, Workday, American Express.

From The Atlantic, "Absolute Power," by Graeme Wood, March, 2022, almost makes we want to renew my subscription to The Atlantic which I dropped during the Hillary Clinton-Trump race for presidency.

But I digress.

Asked about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, Mohammed bin Salman said, "If that's the way we did things, Khagshoggi would not even be among the top 1,000 people on the list." 

Think about that. 

Holy mackerel. 

A lot of bone saws.

Global Economy Coming Out Of Covid Lock Down -- If This Doesn't Get Your Attention, Nothing Will -- March 4, 2022

Reuters posted this two hours ago. 

I can't even get may brain around this 10-fold increase, year-on-year. We're gonna need a lot more sustainable aviation fuel. LOL.

From Reuters: Norwegian Air's February traffic rose ten-fold year-on-year.

Those Renewable Energy Predictions -- March 4, 2022

For whatever reason, and it did not make sense to me, all of a sudden overnight, there was a lot of chatter about failed renewable energy over the past decade. With all that is going on, this seemed a bit interesting to say the least. To wit:

  • another failed prediction; incredible graphic; I'll post it later;
    • this was from BP's statistical review of world energy, 2020 -- wow, how could they be so wrong?
  • the timeline appears to have slid to the right; another great graphic that I will post later;
    • if we're "sliding" to the right, it means we're still burning wood for energy;
    • if you look really, really hard you can see the impact of non-hyrdo renewable energy;
  • it turns out someone at The Washington Post is reading the blog
    • wind and solar increase the demand for natural gas; haven't we been saying this for years?
  • and finally, checking in on Jimmy Carter's "legacy": how did this turn out?
    • wow, Jimmy Carter -- 1978;
    • most of the Reddit crowd not even born in 1978
    • do they even know what a cardigan (sweater) is?
    • speaking of which, my maternal grandfather, German, passed down to me his favorite sweater; kept in impeccable shape which one would expect from a late 19th / early 20th century German.

Graphics for above stories:

BP's failed prediction:

Sliding to the right:

Jimmy Carter:

The Importance Of Permian Natural Gas On A Global Scale -- One Almost Wonders If Mineral Acres Were Bought Cheap Two Years Ago -- The Ukraine Incursion Changes Everything -- March 4, 2022

There are several story lines here:

  • why did Sempra surge this past week?
  • what's the status of Costa Azul?
  • what's going on in Louisiana?
  • what just happened in Mexico?
  • the Ukraine-Russian conflict changes everything; this is not transitory; global impact on fossil energy
  • all of a sudden those high prices paid for mineral acres in the Permian don't look so high any more
  • only five LNG sources?
    • US, Qatar, Iran, Russia, Australia? Others?

Germany's decision to go ahead with two new LNG import terminals which the Green Party has tried to delay / prevent since 2009 is considered a game changer. Think about that: for the past decade Germany has moved away from fossil fuel to renewable energy and everything I've read suggests it has been a huge failure. Now, a decade later, Germany says it will start work on those two LNG import terminals.

Meanwhile, it turns out, the LNG story much closer to home is absolutely fascinating. 

Back in 2020 Sempra's Costa Azul announcement was huge. So, I was curious, how is that coming along. 

Several linked articles:

  • one: previously posted, seems like a downer but put in context with all that is going on, a feel-good story: Sempra's Cameron LNG downsizes expansion plans, touts emissions benefits -- S&P Global, January 19, 2022 -- just a couple of months ago:
    • from 12 million mt/year of LNG, to 6.75
    • from a two-train expansion to a single liquefaction train expansion (CP22-41)
  • two: Sempra developing LNG exports plants in Louisiana, Mexico, Reuters, November 5, 2021 -- last fall;
    • Costa Azul LNG export plant in Mexico "on time and on budge";
      • to produce first LNG by end of 2024 -- about 18 months from now; 
      • 3.3 million tons per annum (MTPA)
    • meanwhile, Cameron LNG 
      • to develop a roughly 6-MTPA four liquefaction train and optimize operations at the existing 15-MTPA, three train facility in Louisiana (which reminds me, I need a cup of Cafe de Monde) 
    • Sempra is also developing the roughtly 4.0-MTPA Vista Pacifico LNG export plan on Mexico's Pacific Coast located next to its refined products terminal in Topolobampo -- great trivia for tonight's cocktail party in Midland
      • Vista Pacifico would be connected to two existing pipelines and wold source gas from the Permain basin in Texas and New Mexico for export to Asian markets, where LNG demand is growing fast
      • at that time, Sempra noted that Europe was interested in more LNG .... and this was before the war, and before the announcement that Germany was going to go ahead with two new LNG import terminals
  • three: from Natural Gas Intelligence, March 3, 2022 -- that's like yesterday, folks -- pipeline imports of US natural gas unhindered amid Russia-Ukraine panic -- 
    • this time was a manic time in natural gas markets globally, and Mexico was not without its share of drama
    • last Friday, February 25, 2022, just one week ago, Mexico's Cenagas declared a rare critical alert on the Sistangas national pipeline system which meant some users would see see natural gas restrictions
    • this must have gotten the attention of Mexico's leadership
    • problems related to a gas processing center and was an isolated event
    • the situation was brought under control quickly but folks started worrying about natural gas supply and security in light of the Ukraine-Russian conflict
    • this speaks volumes about the importance of Permian natural gas on a global scale 

So, Sempra has at least three major projects:

  • Cameron, Louisiana
  • Costa Azul, Mexico
  • Vista Pacifico, Mexico

Investors: time to re-look at the railroads ... no, that's not a typo, not Freudian, but three or four dots and one can connect the natural gas and US-Mexico rail. 

  • unfortunately, the only good one is/was KSU and it's merger with CN is under review by the anti-business Biden administration, and I won't invest in Canadian companies;
  • may have to hold my nose and consider Norfolk Southern