Idle Rambling -- March 4, 2022

When were sanctions first imposed on Iran? 1979. Have they worked? 

A reader presented me with some CIA Fact Book country data. The data came from another source, but for all intents and purposes, it was CIA Fact Book country data. The reader asked me if sanctions will work with regard to Russia.

Great, great question. I assume most folks just have an "emotional" response, quickly answering, "yes" or "no" or "how would I know?" LOL. 

But, not-ready-for-prime-time, I went through the logic. Mr Spock  -- of Star Trek, not of child development, fame -- would have been proud. If Mr Spock were asked that question he would work through it logically and even though he and I might take different logical "trails" we would both come to the same conclusion. 

I won't post my "not-ready-for-prime-time" thought process -- I don't need all the push back. 

But bottom line:

• for Iran, sanctions won't work.
• for Russia, sanctions will work.

But that doesn't mean sanctions are or aren't the answer. Even if sanctions work or don't work, it doesn't mean we won't see the same outcome for both situations, Iran and Russia. 

So, that means there are two questions, not one.

The first question: will sanctions work in either Iran or Russia?

The second question: is the first question relevant? 

End of rambling. Part 1.

Part II. More rambling.

Has the appropriate western agency or agencies asked these two questions? 

One agency that has certainly asked these two questions and worked through the logic is the US CIA. One of the many core competencies the CIA has is its psychological analysis of world leaders. 

Although Mr Spock, the CIA, and I most likely went through different pathways, different steps, my hunch is we all came to the same conclusion, because we are all logical. I'm no Mr Spock (LOL) and although I've ... well, let's not go there ... I don't have the expertise or the heavy duty computers the CIA has, the logic is very, very straightforward.

If you use logic to answer the two questions, you should be very, very concerned. As I'm sure the CIA is.  

It helps explain why President Biden is responding the way he is.

End of rambling. Part II.

Part III. More rambling.

The better part of valor tells me I should stop with Part II. But I can't resist. This one is really, really easy, and I assume we would all come to the same answer. With whom is the psychological analysis more difficult: the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenie, or Vladimir Putin? 

End of rambling. No more parts.

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Can't Resist

I mentioned that regardless of whether sanctions will or won't work, the outcome may be the same. 

There is however a huge, huge difference, and why the two situations (Iran and Russia) are so different.

I'm not going to explain. Again, I don't need the push back.

But I will provide a hint.

Of all the things one associates with Albert Einstein, what is the "one thing" most associated with Albert Einstein? One "thing." It's not "relativity." Something more basic and more easily understood.

If you answer correctly, it all fits.