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Friday, February 25, 2022

Odds And Ends -- Really Late Night Edition -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

MRO: Folks following the Bakken are quite aware of MRO and the monster wells they consistently report in the Williston Basin.

Others have noticed. Link here

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Pipelines, link here. For the archives:

  • Trudeau killed the Trans Mountain pipeline that would have taken Canadian oil from Alberta to the west coast;
  • Biden killed the Keystone XL pipeline that would have taken Canadian oil from Alberta to the US gulf coast;
  • a federal judge killed the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline, West Virginia / Virginia
  • the US Supreme Court agreed with a lower court that the DAPL is operating without a legal permit;
  • Germany decided decades ago to commit to energy dependency on Russia with approval of Nord Stream 2; and, then killed it;
  • someday this is all going to look really, really stupid;
  • it appears "someday" has already come.

Covid-19: if you thought previous CDC guidelines were confusing, things just got a whole lot worse  today with the new guidelines. Biggest question: why are we still wearing masks in airplanes, perhaps the cleanest air in the world. I can sort of understand terminals except for the fact that crowd density was a whole lot worse at the Super Bowl and no one wore masks. And schools. Really?

Ukraine: has anyone else noticed that the only NATO country flying military missions in eastern Europe is the US, and maybe the UK. Earlier this week, US (and maybe UK) aircraft and drones were flying over the Ukraine. Now, nada, zilch, none. The closest they are getting is over Poland and now Romania. Link to Flightradar24. This appears to be a "strategic retreat."

Odds And Ends -- Late Evening -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

Market

US Supreme Court nominee:

  • president interviews three African-American women; makes choice;
  • seems that would give cover to those institutions that use gender, race to legitimize affirmative action;
    • I'm not being facetious; I honestly don't understand how the President of the United States can flagrantly use race and gender in such a manner
  • which, of course, assuming this nominee is confirmed, will she support affirmative action cases that come before her?

International:

  • citizens of Finland, for sure, and possibly Sweden, may want to start learning Russian; and, fast.
    • suggestion, free version of Duolingo, or ad-free Duolingo for ~ $89 / year 
    • I'm not being facetious; I love Duolingo, and if you don't need to learn Russian, all other languages come at no extra cost.

Book recommendation for Kamala Harris: To the Finland Station: A Study in the Writing and Acting of History (1940). I'm sure Bernie Sanders has a copy. I've read the book; it's worth reading:

A book by American critic and historian Edmund Wilson. The work presents the history of revolutionary thought and the birth of socialism, from the French Revolution through the collaboration of Marx and Engels to the arrival of Lenin at the Finlyandsky Rail Terminal in St. Petersburg in 1917.

AP style: when did y'all start spelling the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv? There's much more to this than recent history, but most millennials have no interest going back more than a few years:

Kyiv is the romanized official Ukrainian name for the city, and it is used for legislative and official acts, Kiev is the traditional English name for the city, but because of its historical derivation from the Russian name, Kiev became disfavored in many Western media outlets after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War (began in 2014). 
"Many Western media outlets" is a euphemism for The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Los Angeles Times. And just like the name was changed.
The tea leaves suggest a lot of folks are going to have to change the spelling again.

********************************
A Musical Interlude

Nine Million Bicycles, Katie Melua


Questionable, The Mona Lisa Twins

Week 8: February 20, 2022 -- February 26, 2022

Top story of the week:

  • Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

Wells:

Fracking:

  • We've run out of sand.

Pipelines:

Natural gas:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Europe's Energy Bill Is Staggering -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

Maybe I'm missing something but this seems so incredible, it's hard to believe even Greta isn't amazed. After all, to a great extent, "she did this," as they say. 

From Citigroup's estimates as cited by Bloomberg and reported at the oilprice link above, so I suppose something could be lost in translation ... but I doubt it.

According to Citi, their analysts suggest that "Europe's energy bill was just $300 billion for the entire calendar year, 2021.

But, for 2022, this year, the estimates are that "Europe's energy bill" will surge to $1.2 trillion.

I can't get my arms around those numbers, but maybe this well help.

Just one month ago, the 2022 estimate was for $1 trillion -- in one month -- in just one month -- the estimate has grown by $200 billion, in the same ballpark as the entire bill ($300 billion) for full year, 2021. And 2021 was expensive.

The 2022 estimate now exceeds the previous all-time high spending on energy from 2008. 

But most folks doubt the estimates have quit rising. From the linked article:

Europe was grappling with high energy bills even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sent oil and gas prices soaring again on Thursday amid fears of disruption of supplies. Oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since the summer of 2014, while Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices surged by over 60% on Thursday, after the Russian attack on Ukraine.

Europe imports from Russia more than one-third of the natural gas and more than one-quarter of the crude oil it consumes. Russia accounted for 26.9 percent of European Union crude oil imports and 41.1 percent of the natural gas imports in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, Eurostat data shows. Russia is the single largest supplier of oil, the fuel most used in the EU’s final energy consumption.

The latest Western sanctions against Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine spared the energy sector and bank transactions related to the flow of energy commodities out of Russia.

Welcome to Greta's world. 

By the way, "Europe" has doubled, tripled, quadrupled down, suggesting they will solve the problem with more renewable energy in the form of solar panels and windmills. Good luck. 

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Elon Musk re-considers that gigafactory being built near Berlin.

Zavanna With One New Permit; Enerplus Renews Six Permits; Petroshale Reports One Completed DUC -- Palindromic Friday - 2-25-22

Wow, wow, wow, more to follow as details come in, but there's going to be a huge shift in energy flows over the next six months.

  • first, Bloomberg is now reporting a huge plunge in Mexico's crude oil exports for January, 2022, as it tries to maintain refinery operations at max capacity;
  • three weeks ago, Mexico said it was pretty much going to cease sending oil to India;
  • today, a report that India is looking for other sources to make up the shortfall (see "India" below);
  • China said today it won't go along with Biden's push for global SPR releases; could be a political decision, or China could be short oil (I'm thinking the latter but both probably in play);
  • Apache announced it will sell non-core assets in the Permian for almost one billion dollars; more details below; and, finally,
  • the EU energy crisis this winter: this is quite unbelievable -- details need to be fact-checked to make sure we're comparing apples to apples, but oilprice is reporting that the EU energy bill this year will be $1.2 trillion; this compares to previous year expense of ... drum roll ... only $200 billion; and,
    • then, of course, Russia spokesperson says if Nord Stream 2 is buried empty at the bottom of the ocean, Europe can expect upwards of 5x more in energy costs, again, specifics need to be fact-checked, but,
  • things are moving rapidly.

India:

  • Russia is producing 10.164 million bopd
  • expects to export 4.176 million bopd
  • Indian has stepped in to buy 6 million bbls of Urals (most in three years)
  • Urals and other Russia grades are not being purchased by others

Apache: multiple sources; other scan fact-check me on this; posting in a hurry; family errands to run:

  • link here;
  • earnings call;
  • gross acreage position in the Permian: 4.9 million acres
  • Apache has 1.8 million net mineral Permian acres (1.8 / 4.9 = 37%)
  • to sell 70,000 acres non-core Permian -- see reader's note below -- apparently just selling minerals in this non-core area, not the whole enchilada ...
  • production consists of 7,000 boepd, 44% oil
    • in round numbers, it look like APA produces about 240,000 boepd in the US
  • $805 million deal to close by end of February
  • Apache has 1.8 million net mineral Permian acres
  • back-of-the-envelope:
    • $850 million / 70,000 acres = $12,000 / acre
    • $850 million / 7,000 boepd = $120,000 / boepd
    • the numbers seem "bizarre"; someone else can fact check them but this is based on the linked article;
  • later, from a reader who knows this a whole better than I do -- They are selling their minerals rights only - not their operated wells and acreage. Some of the conventional metrics when valuing operated acreage will seem out of whack here. Comment: that's a big help. Thank you. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$91.59
2/25/202202/25/202102/25/202002/25/201902/25/2018
Active Rigs3215496657

One new permit, $38798:

  • Operator: Zavanna
  • Field: Stockyard Creek (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Zavanna has a permit for a Galloway well in SESE 18-154-99;
    •  to be sited 742 FSL and 1089 FEL;

Six permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: five LK-Olson permits in Dunn County; and one Storhaug permit in Williams County; I assume these were all acquired from Hess; certainly the LK-Olson wells were; not sure about the Storhaug well in Dublin oil field;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 36619, 574, Petroshale, Anderson South 3MBH, Croff, NDIC scout ticket shows this as PNC/A.

Holy Mackerel! SRE Up $7/Share Today; Up Over 5%; This $125 Stock Trading At $141 -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

SRE. Wow, wow, wow, link here:

  • EPS of $2.16; beats by sixteen cents;
  • revenue of $3.84 billion beats by  $320 million
  • and look at this, holy mackerel, SRE raises dividend by 4%; 
  • $1.145 / share quarterly vs previous of $1.10; whoo-hoo. 
  • in 2015, SRE was paying 70 cents / share / quarterly
  • earnings call, SeekingAlpha;
  • press release;
  • holy mackerel: SRE up 5.4% at the close; up $7.21 / share today; closed at $141.44; still not an all-time high, but are you kidding me!

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

I will have to take a look at the market over the weekend.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- Late Afternoon -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Warren: say what you want, but that Warren Buffett is either very, very smart, or very, very lucky. 

My father always said he would rather be lucky than be smart, but I digress. It was recently noted that Berkshire Hathaway made a significant buy of CVX in its most recent 13F filings. Today: CVX hit an an-all time high I believe, of $140, 18, up almost 4%; up over $5/share, paying 4.05%. 

The letter: Warren's annual letter is scheduled to be release tomorrow. 

How oil is taxed in California: speaking of CVX, this is how oil is taxed in California. Time for Chevonr to musk-locate to Houston.


CNRL policy: if you answer "yes" to any questions on Covid forms you are fired no matter what your symptoms are. The oil patch is back.

North American oil patch: "We are out of sand." Link here.

Golden era, link here:

  • energy sector has entered a golden era of free cash flow
  • debt free next year
  • 15 years of drilling inventory average; for some operators, much more than that;
    • every operator in the Williston Basin has more than ten years inventory based on current rig count
  • the tsunami of free cash flow can only go one place: shareholders
  • epic dividends and buybacks ahead + valuations near generational lows

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Ukraine

Europe natural gas prices: prices halted a record-breaking rally, as Russian flows to the continent ramped up. Say what? Germany financing Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Of all the NATO countries, Germany has been least helpful resisting Russia, helping Ukraine.

Russian natural gas flows through Ukraine actually increased substantially the past couple of days. Key word? Substantially. Germany is financing Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Link here.

Agriculture, oh-oh or whoo-hoo?

  • Ukraine's grain and oilseed markets halted. Link here.
  • cancellations expected for Ukraine grain contracts. Link here.
  • beneficiaries:
    • North Dakota farms (soybean and wheat)
    • Deere

China: boosts oil reserves. Ignores US push for global release of strategic reserves. Link here.

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The Apple Page

Subscribers: iOS users spent $13.5 billion on top 100 subscription apps in 2021, up 31% year-on-year. And look how they did it. Someone knows price points, carrots and sticks.

iPhone 13: the iPhone 13 lineup let global smartphone revenues to record high in 2021. Link here. And, apparently the supply chain shortages and obstacles are a thing of the past.

Meta: being killed by Apple. Link to SeekingAlpha

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Why Are The Markets So Strong Today -- Pop Quiz -- Palindromic Friday - 2-25-22

So much more to blog today but still running behind, so additional blogging will be delayed, but a reader sent me screen shots of the markets' advances today. I couldn't resist.

At that moment, the advances in the US markets are quite remarkable. 

Question, what's driving the market? Should be easy, huh? But, in fact, there are at least seven line items, and one can guess which is most important for investors. The first six:

  • all countries involved are now reaching out diplomatically to end hostilities;
  • hostilities seem to have peaked and may now be reaching steady state;
  • the nuclear option for sanctions (SWIFT denial) has not yet materialized;
  • all that talk of $200 oil has now settled down, and in fact, both WTI and Brent are coming down a bit;
  • sector rotation;
  • US economic data is particularly strong (new housing starts; low number receiving unemployment cash; gasoline demand);

There are probably others I'm forgetting or missing but there is one that I have not forgotten and for investors, it's the most important. 

The answer is at the very bottom of this post: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2022/02/clearing-out-in-box-opening-overnight.html.

Cathie Never Fails To Brighten My Day -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

Much more to blog today, but I am taking a break. I will leave you with this which has been previously posted but it always brightens my day.

From Cathie Wood, and this is not a parody, but it's really from "the real" Cathie Wood, said to have been the best fund manager in 2020, from twitter, July 15, 2020:

Oil demand probably hit a secular peak last year and, thanks to EVs, now is in secular "decline." Though ARK has no formal forecast, I believe that oil prices are on their way back to $12, the level reached after the 1973 oil cartel crisis, or lower, now that EVs are taking off."

Several observations:

  • why in the world did she put "decline" in quotes?
  • whenever you hear an analyst use the word "secular" be prepared for some bullshit
  • I don't know whether EVS are "taking off," but I do know they are burning out of control in the middle of the Atlantic, as well as almost anywhere they might be parked.

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Pediatric Deaths: Seasonal Flu and Covid-19

Link here

Either the graphic below includes Covid-19 or it doesn't and/or no one really knows. Regardless, it hardly matters.

Factually, "seasonal flu" is known to be particularly serious/dangerous for those less than four years of age compared to adults, as recorded frequently prior to 2019, prior to any knowledge of Covid-19.

On the other hand, just the opposite, Covid-19 for those under the age of four seems to be a lot less concerning than for adults.

And what do we see here? This is absolutely stunning. Direct quotes from the CDC:

  • One influenza-associated pediatric death occurring during the 2021 - 2022 season was reported to the CDC during week 7 (most recent week for reporting).
  • A total of six influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2021 - 2022 season have been reported. 

The current season is not yet over.

  • Last season, 2020 - 2021, arguably during the worst season for Covid-19, there was one pediatric death attributed to "influenza." 
    • One. In the entire United States, for the 2020 - 2021 influenza season, there was one pediatric death related to influenza.
  • For the season prior to the outbreak of Covid-19 (remember, the lock downs began in March, 2020, the total number of pediatric deaths attributed to influenza: 199.

The season prior to that, 2018 -2019, 144 pediatric deaths.

By the way, this is in line with what the Danes are seeing in their own country according to a reader who recently replied to the blog, posted earlier.

It will be most interesting to see what 2022 - 2023 "flu" season brings.

Updating A Not-Atypical-Bakken Well -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

The well:

  • 20236, IA/824, WPX, Packineau 15-32H, Heart Butte, t6/11; cum 337K 10/21; 

Full production here.

This was never a particularly interesting well:

  • note the low IP
  • note the low production from the very beginning
  • quickly leveled off to 1,000 bbls/month
  • then a bit of a jump in production in early 2019, but again, not remarkable
  • but now, ten years after it was first drilled, jumps from a 1,000 bbls / month to 6,000 bbls / month, before taken off line due to extensive fracking by Enerplus in the local area
  • memo to self: come back to look at this well when neighboring wells are fracked and this well brought back on line. 

Clearing Out The In-Box -- Opening The Overnight Mail -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. This page has not been proofread. Most common typographical error: typing "now" for "not" or vice versa. 

Flightradar24: I'm not aware if most folks are aware that Russia took down this site yesterday for a few hours. It was back up by the end of the day. 

I haven't checked today. Link here. I noted it was taken down at 4:00 a.m. CT yesterday, February 24, 2022, at the time Russia invaded Ukraine. 
My first attempt to access the site was at 4:00 a.m.CT. Clicking on the bookmark returned a message that due to "server overload," I would be placed in queue and would have access later, wait time was estimated to be 31 minutes at that time. About ten minutes later, I tried again, and then got a very Russian-esque "warning" telling me that because I abused the site, I was now blocked from accessing the site. Period. Dot. I can guarantee you -- or at least bet you a Starbucks coffee -- that "Flightradar24" didn't post that warning. Based on comments at the link, no one was able to access the site, not even those who paid for the service.

First access at 4:00 a.m.CT: I was thinking about that today when I checked in on Twitter at 3:30 a.m. this morning.

I get by on amazingly little sleep. I've been fortunate in that regard my entire life, but perhaps most noticeable when we were stationed in Turkey, back in the early 90s' (1990s, not 1890s -- I'm old, but not that old). I had a weekly routine. I went into work at 4:00 a.m. on Monday morning and each day through Thursday went in one hour / morning later, so that by Thursday I was going in at 7:00 a.m. I slept in on Sunday morning, banking the hours of sleep I would need for the next week. I seldom went to bed before midnight and often got called in (pediatric emergency, emergency room emergency, commander-related issues, or my boss -- a brigadier general -- would call me at 2:00 a.m. to ask me a question that could have waited until later that day, if not later that week. 
Little sleep: I think I've told this story before. 

During my third year of medical school, during my general surgery rotation, I once remember being awakened by the nurse to examine a new admission. Turned out to be a young male with acute appendicitis (female?, I forget -- it seems the patient was a 19-year-old woman but acute appendicitis is more common in young males than young women). Anyway, I remember doing the entire history -- about thirty minutes -- and complete physical in another 20 minutes -- with my eyes closed, literally sleep-walking through the entire process. I remember that distinctly because when I was all done and putting things away the patient asked me if I always did histories and physicals standing up with my eyes closed. I never lost my sense of humor but I do not remember my reply.
Appendicitis: I think I've told this story before, also. I did not learn until many years later but it's now considered malpractice not have a patient diagnosed with appendicitis in the operating room within four hours of the diagnosis being made, which usually occurs in an emergency room. 

The standard was set by the JCAHO back in the 70s I suppose, and I suppose malpractice lawyers have done well with this. Having said that, acute appendicitis does not have to be surgically treated; it can be managed medically but no one in their right mind would do that except in extenuating circumstances. US submariners are an exception: they are in their right mind but once underway, any submariner unfortunate enough to be diagnosed with acute appendicitis is treated medically. At least that's my understanding. Again I digress. I trained at Los Angeles County hospital and because "knife-and-gun club" casualties took precedence over acute appendicitis cases, the rule for getting a patient with the latter diagnosis to the O.R. was within 24 hours, and that was mostly so that the admitting surgical team would/could have the surgical opportunity. Heaven forbid we would led the oncoming team get the case.

Duolingo: $80 / year subscription for ad-free, but can get it for free. Best $80 I've ever spent. I now have 519 days consecutive, having never missed one day of studying Spanish on Duolingo since I subscribed. Sophia and I study together. 

Elon Musk, Gene Wilder, and Gildner Radner: best link today. At The WSJ, so a paywall, sorry. This one story is worth the annual digital subscription rate. I would subscribe to the hard copy, which I used to do, but delivery was very hit-and-miss. 

Most incredible public health story ever? Seasonal flu. Eradicated in two years? Link here. See below, below "the fold."

196 and other Lychrel numbers. Link here. I put Lychrel numbers among other "spooky" numbers.

An 8-second soundbite that some suggest will "live in infamy." Link here. So many story lines here. Loop this for sixty seconds and let this sink in.

Days of supply: warms the cockles of my heart. The blog was one of the few sites that actually tracked crude oil days of supply. Now, we have another individual who tracks that data. Link here. Absolutely stunning. Or ... scary? The gray line is trending toward zero.

Unemployment: when the market gets this volatile I do not follow the mainstream media news, and I do not watch CNBC. I haven't watched CNBC in weeks; I have selectively gone back to The WSJ (mostly the book review section); very little PowerLine; almost no Drudge Report, so I was quite surprised to come across this data point: fewest Americans ever collecting unemployment insurance. Link here. Okay, not "forever," just since 1970, which seems like "forever." I guess it helped that after ten months the XOM refinery workers finally signed their contract. But can you imagine that: fewest Americans collecting unemployment insurance since 1970? Maybe others see it differently, but I'm completely blown away by this. Listening to / reading anti-establishment news sites suggested that things were a lot worse.

Soul-searching: sometime down the road -- maybe a year or so -- and then decades from now, the historians -- will do a lot of soul-searching and analysis to explain how Germany (and the EU in general) got to this point that they were energy-powerless against their arch-enemy, Russia. 

I only see the world through "networks," connecting the dots. The two networks that fascinate me mostly are information (communication, telecommunication) and energy. I can't recall if I've mentioned that on the blog before, but in 1984 when I made my first stock trade (BNSF/BNI) followed closely by San Diego Gas & Electric I commented somewhere -- perhaps in my journals -- that the "future" will be in communications and energy. My investments have mirrored those thoughts over the years. But I digress. Sometime down the road -- maybe a year or so -- and then decades from now, the historians -- will do a lot of soul-searching and analysis to try to understand how German (and the EU in general) were forced to capitulate to their arch-enemy without the latter (Germany and the EU) firing a shot. 

Through my "energy lens" I trace it back to one thing: energy. Shortly after I started the blog, I posted the note that Europe would become the first continent (other than Antarctica) and perhaps the only continent to become totally dependent upon imported energy. Wow, I think I wrote that in 2013. I could find it if I wanted but not worth the effort. 

But, wow, if that doesn't come full circle, that in 1984 I wrote down somewhere that "the future" would not be plastics, it would be "communication networks" and "energy."

Price of gasoline: my wife remarked that when she went to fill up her car the other day, the previous customer had a purchase -- according to the pump -- in excess of $100. 

She said she would have "died" had her bill been that much. Here, hold the nozzle. LOL. But seriously, if the previous customer was using a vehicle for business, that $100 was probably "covered" within one or two hours of wages or salary. If it was for personal driving, one would hope that one doesn't have to fill-up more than once every five days. If so, that $100 works out to $20/day which is an incredible bargain in my book. McDonald's for two for lunch will run that much these days. At least at the Portland, OR, airport. 

McDonald's: speaking of which. I haven't been to a McDonald's in two years (?). Probably a bit of hyperbole but it's been a long time. Sophia and I went regularly until the pandemic, March, 2020 -- almost two years ago, and I used to go there for coffee several times/week as an alternative to Starbucks. Haven't been to either for coffee in almost two years, except when passing through the DFW and/or PDX airports. 

Haircuts: that reminds me. I haven't not been to a barbershop since February, 2020. And doing just fine, thank you, very much. Sophia used to cut my hair, not so much any more, so I do it myself. And use Rogaine to keep it full and luxurious. LOL. Yeah, right. 

ISO NE: a reader just asked "how much oil is New England burning during the current winter storm." My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:


It all depends on the wind. For the past week or so, the wind has been great and ISO NE has been doing very, very well.

Today, their prices only spiked to $120 / MWh. Energy use early this morning is a pretty significant 15,845 MW -- not record-setting but high. I was surprised to see the fuel mix:
  • oil burning, very, very high: contributing 7% of energy needs
  • coal: unusual to see coal at all, but today, 3% of energy needs
  • renewables at a respectable 8% and wind at 34%.
  • ISO NE is in great shape when renewables go over 10% and wind accounts for more than 50% of supply; so 85 and 34% today is pretty mediocre
  • hydro is very expensive and it is being used to fill in the gaps, contributing 9%.

So, a mixed picture today but burning a lot of oil. I don't know if folks were aware of this but a few weeks ago during the worse storms, ISO NE actually ran out of both coal and oil and had to resort to lots of expensive hydro from Canada to keep the lights on.

US migration: this is from a "Paid" ad placement for Forbes. I have no idea when it was first published; the article seems to be undated. The US states from which people are fleeing and where they are headed. I was surprised to see North Dakota on on one list, and California on neither list. I personally think these lists are worthless, but for some reason, like most folks, we like lists and we like numbers. Our brains must be pre-wired for such things. Oldest "book" with lists and numbers (the book even has a chapter called "Numbers"): the Bible.

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Pediatric Deaths: Seasonal Flu and Covid-19

Link here

Either the graphic below includes Covid-19 or it doesn't and/or no one really knows. Regardless, it hardly matters.

Factually, "seasonal flu" is known to be particularly serious/dangerous for those less than four years of age compared to adults, as recorded frequently prior to 2019, prior to any knowledge of Covid-19.

On the other hand, just the opposite, Covid-19 for those under the age of four seems to be a lot less concerning than for adults.

And what do we see here? This is absolutely stunning. Direct quotes from the CDC:

  • One influenza-associated pediatric death occurring during the 2021 - 2022 season was reported to the CDC during week 7 (most recent week for reporting).
  • A total of six influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2021 - 2022 season have been reported. 

The current season is not yet over.

  • Last season, 2020 - 2021, arguably during the worst season for Covid-19, there was one pediatric death attributed to "influenza." 
    • One. In the entire United States, for the 2020 - 2021 influenza season, there was one pediatric death related to influenza.
  • For the season prior to the outbreak of Covid-19 (remember, the lock downs began in March, 2020, the total number of pediatric deaths attributed to influenza: 199.

The season prior to that, 2018 -2019, 144 pediatric deaths.

By the way, this is in line with what the Danes are seeing in their own country according to a reader who recently replied to the blog, posted earlier.

It will be most interesting to see what 2022 - 2023 "flu" season brings.


********************
Answer To Pop Quiz 

Pop quiz here.

Q: What is the reason for the incredibly strong US equity markets today?

Answer
: Investors are betting Jay Powell is too spooked to raise rates at the next FOMC meeting. In this environment, is the Fed likely to raise rates 50 basis points or more at the next meeting? No. The most that will happen, a Fed rate of 25 basis points if any change at all.

CLR To Report One Well; SRE Beats, RBN On $100-Oil -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

Wow, a great day for blogging. Lots of good stuff coming your way today. Much will be delayed but we will eventually get to everything.

First off, SRE. Wow, wow, wow, link here:

  • EPS of $2.16; beats by sixteen cents;
  • revenue of $3.84 billion beats by  $320 million
  • and look at this, holy mackerel, SRE raises dividend by 4%; 
  • $1.145 / share quarterly vs previous of $1.10; whoo-hoo. 
  • in 2015, SRE was paying 70 cents / share / quarterly
  • earnings call, SeekingAlpha;
  • press release;
  • holy mackerel: SRE up 5.4% at the close; up $7.21 / share today; closed at $141.44; still not an all-time high, but are you kidding me!

BWXT: increased its quarterly dividend, not by much, but still an increase. 

Slowly, but surely, it's amazing how dividends grow. BWXT is a "nothing" in the big scheme of things, and yet in just a few years its dividend has doubled. So, if one was getting $10,000 annually in dividends from BWXT just a few years ago, one is now getting $20,000 annually.

Later today: US Supreme Court nominee.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$93.27
2/25/202202/25/202102/25/202002/25/201902/25/2018
Active Rigs3215496657

Friday, February 25, 2022: 45 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 100 for the year

  • 38151, conf, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 16-5HSL,

RBN Energy: $100 / bbl crude oil is back. What does it mean? Will it last?

Well, it took a hot war in Europe, constrained capital spending by U.S. producers, continued restrictions in OPEC+ production, and ongoing economic recovery from a global pandemic, but it’s finally happened: Brent shot past $100 and even $105/bbl Thursday before dropping in the last hour of trading to settle a hair above $99. Even WTI touched $100/bbl briefly. The market has been buzzing about the prospects for the breach of this threshold since October, coming along with waves of speculative trades, a dozen false starts, and countless pundit predictions. Now that it has happened, what does it mean — other than higher gasoline prices, of course? In the good ole days, high prices would spur production growth that would help bring prices back down — eventually. But this time, things are different. Which begs the #1 question: Will triple-digit oil prices last? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll consider these issues in the context of historical price behavior and what we might expect this time around.