Clearing Out The In-Box -- Opening The Overnight Mail -- Palindromic Friday -- 2-25-22

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. This page has not been proofread. Most common typographical error: typing "now" for "not" or vice versa. 

Flightradar24: I'm not aware if most folks are aware that Russia took down this site yesterday for a few hours. It was back up by the end of the day. 

I haven't checked today. Link here. I noted it was taken down at 4:00 a.m. CT yesterday, February 24, 2022, at the time Russia invaded Ukraine. 

My first attempt to access the site was at 4:00 a.m.CT. Clicking on the bookmark returned a message that due to "server overload," I would be placed in queue and would have access later, wait time was estimated to be 31 minutes at that time. About ten minutes later, I tried again, and then got a very Russian-esque "warning" telling me that because I abused the site, I was now blocked from accessing the site. Period. Dot. I can guarantee you -- or at least bet you a Starbucks coffee -- that "Flightradar24" didn't post that warning. Based on comments at the link, no one was able to access the site, not even those who paid for the service.

First access at 4:00 a.m.CT: I was thinking about that today when I checked in on Twitter at 3:30 a.m. this morning.

I get by on amazingly little sleep. I've been fortunate in that regard my entire life, but perhaps most noticeable when we were stationed in Turkey, back in the early 90s' (1990s, not 1890s -- I'm old, but not that old). I had a weekly routine. I went into work at 4:00 a.m. on Monday morning and each day through Thursday went in one hour / morning later, so that by Thursday I was going in at 7:00 a.m. I slept in on Sunday morning, banking the hours of sleep I would need for the next week. I seldom went to bed before midnight and often got called in (pediatric emergency, emergency room emergency, commander-related issues, or my boss -- a brigadier general -- would call me at 2:00 a.m. to ask me a question that could have waited until later that day, if not later that week. 

Little sleep: I think I've told this story before. 

During my third year of medical school, during my general surgery rotation, I once remember being awakened by the nurse to examine a new admission. Turned out to be a young male with acute appendicitis (female?, I forget -- it seems the patient was a 19-year-old woman but acute appendicitis is more common in young males than young women). Anyway, I remember doing the entire history -- about thirty minutes -- and complete physical in another 20 minutes -- with my eyes closed, literally sleep-walking through the entire process. I remember that distinctly because when I was all done and putting things away the patient asked me if I always did histories and physicals standing up with my eyes closed. I never lost my sense of humor but I do not remember my reply.

Appendicitis: I think I've told this story before, also. I did not learn until many years later but it's now considered malpractice not have a patient diagnosed with appendicitis in the operating room within four hours of the diagnosis being made, which usually occurs in an emergency room. 

The standard was set by the JCAHO back in the 70s I suppose, and I suppose malpractice lawyers have done well with this. Having said that, acute appendicitis does not have to be surgically treated; it can be managed medically but no one in their right mind would do that except in extenuating circumstances. US submariners are an exception: they are in their right mind but once underway, any submariner unfortunate enough to be diagnosed with acute appendicitis is treated medically. At least that's my understanding. Again I digress. I trained at Los Angeles County hospital and because "knife-and-gun club" casualties took precedence over acute appendicitis cases, the rule for getting a patient with the latter diagnosis to the O.R. was within 24 hours, and that was mostly so that the admitting surgical team would/could have the surgical opportunity. Heaven forbid we would led the oncoming team get the case.

Duolingo: $80 / year subscription for ad-free, but can get it for free. Best $80 I've ever spent. I now have 519 days consecutive, having never missed one day of studying Spanish on Duolingo since I subscribed. Sophia and I study together. 

Elon Musk, Gene Wilder, and Gildner Radner: best link today. At The WSJ, so a paywall, sorry. This one story is worth the annual digital subscription rate. I would subscribe to the hard copy, which I used to do, but delivery was very hit-and-miss. 

Most incredible public health story ever? Seasonal flu. Eradicated in two years? Link here. See below, below "the fold."

196 and other Lychrel numbers. Link here. I put Lychrel numbers among other "spooky" numbers.

An 8-second soundbite that some suggest will "live in infamy." Link here. So many story lines here. Loop this for sixty seconds and let this sink in.

Days of supply: warms the cockles of my heart. The blog was one of the few sites that actually tracked crude oil days of supply. Now, we have another individual who tracks that data. Link here. Absolutely stunning. Or ... scary? The gray line is trending toward zero.

Unemployment: when the market gets this volatile I do not follow the mainstream media news, and I do not watch CNBC. I haven't watched CNBC in weeks; I have selectively gone back to The WSJ (mostly the book review section); very little PowerLine; almost no Drudge Report, so I was quite surprised to come across this data point: fewest Americans ever collecting unemployment insurance. Link here. Okay, not "forever," just since 1970, which seems like "forever." I guess it helped that after ten months the XOM refinery workers finally signed their contract. But can you imagine that: fewest Americans collecting unemployment insurance since 1970? Maybe others see it differently, but I'm completely blown away by this. Listening to / reading anti-establishment news sites suggested that things were a lot worse.

Soul-searching: sometime down the road -- maybe a year or so -- and then decades from now, the historians -- will do a lot of soul-searching and analysis to explain how Germany (and the EU in general) got to this point that they were energy-powerless against their arch-enemy, Russia. 

I only see the world through "networks," connecting the dots. The two networks that fascinate me mostly are information (communication, telecommunication) and energy. I can't recall if I've mentioned that on the blog before, but in 1984 when I made my first stock trade (BNSF/BNI) followed closely by San Diego Gas & Electric I commented somewhere -- perhaps in my journals -- that the "future" will be in communications and energy. My investments have mirrored those thoughts over the years. But I digress. Sometime down the road -- maybe a year or so -- and then decades from now, the historians -- will do a lot of soul-searching and analysis to try to understand how German (and the EU in general) were forced to capitulate to their arch-enemy without the latter (Germany and the EU) firing a shot. 

Through my "energy lens" I trace it back to one thing: energy. Shortly after I started the blog, I posted the note that Europe would become the first continent (other than Antarctica) and perhaps the only continent to become totally dependent upon imported energy. Wow, I think I wrote that in 2013. I could find it if I wanted but not worth the effort. 

But, wow, if that doesn't come full circle, that in 1984 I wrote down somewhere that "the future" would not be plastics, it would be "communication networks" and "energy."

Price of gasoline: my wife remarked that when she went to fill up her car the other day, the previous customer had a purchase -- according to the pump -- in excess of $100. 

She said she would have "died" had her bill been that much. Here, hold the nozzle. LOL. But seriously, if the previous customer was using a vehicle for business, that $100 was probably "covered" within one or two hours of wages or salary. If it was for personal driving, one would hope that one doesn't have to fill-up more than once every five days. If so, that $100 works out to $20/day which is an incredible bargain in my book. McDonald's for two for lunch will run that much these days. At least at the Portland, OR, airport. 

McDonald's: speaking of which. I haven't been to a McDonald's in two years (?). Probably a bit of hyperbole but it's been a long time. Sophia and I went regularly until the pandemic, March, 2020 -- almost two years ago, and I used to go there for coffee several times/week as an alternative to Starbucks. Haven't been to either for coffee in almost two years, except when passing through the DFW and/or PDX airports. 

Haircuts: that reminds me. I haven't not been to a barbershop since February, 2020. And doing just fine, thank you, very much. Sophia used to cut my hair, not so much any more, so I do it myself. And use Rogaine to keep it full and luxurious. LOL. Yeah, right. 

ISO NE: a reader just asked "how much oil is New England burning during the current winter storm." My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

ISO NE: https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts

It all depends on the wind. For the past week or so, the wind has been great and ISO NE has been doing very, very well.

Today, their prices only spiked to $120 / MWh. Energy use early this morning is a pretty significant 15,845 MW -- not record-setting but high. I was surprised to see the fuel mix:

• oil burning, very, very high: contributing 7% of energy needs
• coal: unusual to see coal at all, but today, 3% of energy needs
• renewables at a respectable 8% and wind at 34%.
• ISO NE is in great shape when renewables go over 10% and wind accounts for more than 50% of supply; so 85 and 34% today is pretty mediocre
• hydro is very expensive and it is being used to fill in the gaps, contributing 9%.

So, a mixed picture today but burning a lot of oil. I don't know if folks were aware of this but a few weeks ago during the worse storms, ISO NE actually ran out of both coal and oil and had to resort to lots of expensive hydro from Canada to keep the lights on.

US migration: this is from a "Paid" ad placement for Forbes. I have no idea when it was first published; the article seems to be undated. The US states from which people are fleeing and where they are headed. I was surprised to see North Dakota on on one list, and California on neither list. I personally think these lists are worthless, but for some reason, like most folks, we like lists and we like numbers. Our brains must be pre-wired for such things. Oldest "book" with lists and numbers (the book even has a chapter called "Numbers"): the Bible.

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Pediatric Deaths: Seasonal Flu and Covid-19

Link here. 

Either the graphic below includes Covid-19 or it doesn't and/or no one really knows. Regardless, it hardly matters.

Factually, "seasonal flu" is known to be particularly serious/dangerous for those less than four years of age compared to adults, as recorded frequently prior to 2019, prior to any knowledge of Covid-19.

On the other hand, just the opposite, Covid-19 for those under the age of four seems to be a lot less concerning than for adults.

And what do we see here? This is absolutely stunning. Direct quotes from the CDC:

• One influenza-associated pediatric death occurring during the 2021 - 2022 season was reported to the CDC during week 7 (most recent week for reporting).
• A total of six influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2021 - 2022 season have been reported. 

The current season is not yet over.

• Last season, 2020 - 2021, arguably during the worst season for Covid-19, there was one pediatric death attributed to "influenza." 
• One. In the entire United States, for the 2020 - 2021 influenza season, there was one pediatric death related to influenza.
  
• For the season prior to the outbreak of Covid-19 (remember, the lock downs began in March, 2020, the total number of pediatric deaths attributed to influenza: 199.

The season prior to that, 2018 -2019, 144 pediatric deaths.

By the way, this is in line with what the Danes are seeing in their own country according to a reader who recently replied to the blog, posted earlier.

It will be most interesting to see what 2022 - 2023 "flu" season brings.

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Answer To Pop Quiz 

Pop quiz here.

Q: What is the reason for the incredibly strong US equity markets today?

Answer: Investors are betting Jay Powell is too spooked to raise rates at the next FOMC meeting. In this environment, is the Fed likely to raise rates 50 basis points or more at the next meeting? No. The most that will happen, a Fed rate of 25 basis points if any change at all.