Parting Shot -- Matt Walsh, Twitter -- December 19, 2021

Link here.

"We are going to enter our third year of COVID with record numbers of cases but please remember that all of the measures we've taken to fight COVID have totally worked and we should keep doing the same thing indefinitely."

Einstein's definition of insanity.

Art Berman: Shale Companies Are Swimming In Cash -- December 19, 2021

Link here. Headline and story from Financial Times.

Two things to start: 

1. Au revoir, long-term European gas contracts. The European Commission has proposed banning deals between EU members and energy suppliers outside the bloc, such as Russia, that would last beyond 2049. That’s a long time away, but is the last year before the EU economy is supposed to have hit a net zero emissions target.
2. Remember peak oil consumption? US weekly oil demand soared last week, hitting a new record of almost 23.2m barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration, leaping by 17 per cent compared with a week earlier. The four-week average is not — yet — at a record high. 

That US demand number is startling. 

But Omicron seems certain now to decide whether the US — or indeed global — energy consumption continues to rise so quickly. 

OPEC remains sanguine about the variant, saying in its latest market report that the impact on demand “is expected to be mild and shortlived.”

The International Energy Agency was less confident, saying in its December oil-market report that Omicron “poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.”

Much, much on the robust free cash flow for shale operators. This from the linked article:

Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest shale player, described it to me in Houston last week as a new “contract” between the industry investors. In Pioneer’s case that means growing by no more than 5 per cent annually and distributing a hefty chunk of free cash flow back to investors. And this new model is here to stay, he told me: “There’s no way that the industry is going to change overnight and start growing again.”

Market caps:

• XOM: $256 billion
• COP: $90 billion
• EOG: $49 billion
• PDX: $42 billion
• DVN: $26 billion
• HES: $22 billion

Reminder: Focus on Fracking -- Weekly Edition Posted — December 19, 2021

 Link here.

The lede:

• total supplies at an 83-month low (almost seven years)
  
• SPR approaching a 19-year low;
• total demand at a record high;
• distillates demand at 18+ year high;
• global shortage at 1.2 million bopd -- that's per day, over one million bbl shortfall
• at relatively high prices -- some folks might remove the "relatively" and just say "high prices" -- OPEC output falls 563,000 bopd short of quote
• demand revisions now indicate oil shortage for all of 2021

Bakken-specific news: 

Pipeline:

North Dakota's Bakken production is lagging pre-pandemic levels, and Energy Transfer LP's Dakota Access Pipeline, which can carry about 570,000 bpd out of the region, is at about 77% of utilization, compared with nearly full utilization before the pandemic, Saxton said. However, Dakota Access' uncommitted tariff rate is $6.64 per barrel, above the around $6.28 per barrel before the pandemic, Saxton said. There are fewer pipes out of the Bakken than in the Permian.

Natural gas: Bakken production will continue to grow.

Capline Reversal -- Full Capacity -- January 11, 2021

Link here.

******************************************
EVs
Copper

Hydrogen, Carbon Capture, And Coal Creek -- ND On The Move -- December 19, 2021

Link here. 

Portland, Oregon, December 19, 2021:

NFL To End Mandatory Covid-19 Testing On Asymptomatic, Vaccinated Individuals -- December 19, 2021

Finally, a step in the right direction. 

NFL makes major change in Covid-19 testing protocol.

The NFL will stop mandating weekly COVID-19 tests for asymptomatic vaccinated players, according to memos distributed Saturday that described a major shift in the league's approach to the pandemic.

The new protocols, which take effect next week, could allow the virus to spread undetected through locker rooms, and could increase opportunities for infected but otherwise healthy players to participate in games.

This is a huge story. It will be interesting to see who follows the NFL.

*****************************
Merry Christmas From What-A-Burger

A Most Unusual Siting -- December 19, 2021

Recently completed Rimrock Oil & Gas wells, still on confidential list. Which way will the horizontal wells run?

The graphics:

So, let's check out those four wells noted above. None of the four were take off line?

• 24130,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	902	907	3157	368	137	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	24	767	759	2312	728	557	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1045	1119	1345	1118	888	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1162	1127	1378	1236	1005	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1074	1126	1180	1148	926	0

• 19696,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2639	2503	646	1618	1399	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	24	538	508	464	556	387	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	295	313	105	584	354	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	307	300	215	629	398	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	312	330	148	589	367	0

• 24131,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	27	1212	1204	1987	884	693	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	875	856	3241	741	533	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1003	1050	1496	1099	868	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	910	880	1361	987	762	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	816	842	1262	982	760	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	811	823	1414	827	827	0

• 24132,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	29	1222	1234	733	1108	898	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	1117	1061	729	1090	890	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	26	718	727	727	929	735	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	19	435	455	310	740	598	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	771	798	322	1035	813	0

FBIR Johnson Wells, Heart Butte, Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 19, 2021

The wells:

• 38279, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7H, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	34165	19089

• 38280, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7C, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	35957	20655

• 38282, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7B, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	35952	20292

• 38281, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7G, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	32817	18235

• 38283, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7F, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	35270	19727

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 19, 2021

The wells:

• 38379, conf, Rampart Energy, Coteau 1, Wildcat, SWSW 1-145-88;
• 36997, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 7-27H1, Long Creek, no production data,
• 36998, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 6-27H, Long Creek, no production data,
• 38279, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7H, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here; see this post for siting;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	34165	19089

• 38280, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7C, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here; see this post for siting;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	35957	20655

• 38282, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7B, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here; see this post for siting;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	35952	20292

• 38281, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7G, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here; see this post for siting;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	32817	18235

• 38301, conf, Armstrong, Fugere 31-23, South Camel Hump, no production data, 
• 38283, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7F, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here; see this post for siting;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	35270	19727

• 38185, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 7-21H, Baker, no production data, 
• 37189, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9HU, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 64K 10/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	17980	17895	16006	26481	21774	4707
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	21064	21191	20237	22208	17947	4261
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	18519	18425	28263	20117	11131	8986
BAKKEN	7-2021	9	6125	6032	9314	6810	1460	5350
BAKKEN	6-2021	8	190	0	13913	0	0	0

• 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 123K 10/21; the FB Belford wells are tracked here;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	30	18583	18622	10298	25842	22537	305
BAKKEN	9-2021	13	12880	12734	8257	14162	12223	146
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	31390	31346	36670	39998	37939	1241
BAKKEN	7-2021	29	40500	40541	40207	43835	42432	1403
BAKKEN	6-2021	11	19332	19016	21922	17927	16383	1209

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 19, 2021

Monday, December 27, 2021: 84 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 339 for the year:
38379, conf, rampart Energy, Coteau 1,

Sunday, December 26, 2021: 83 for the month, 112 for the quarter, 338 for the year:
36997, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 7-27H1,

Saturday, December 25, 2021: 82 for the month, 111 for the quarter, 337 for the year:
36998, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 6-27H,

Friday, December 24, 2021: 81 for the month, 110 for the quarter, 336 for the year:
38279, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7H,

Thursday, December 23, 2021: 80 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 335 for the year:
38280, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7C,

Wednesday, December 22, 2021: 79 for the month, 108 for the quarter, 334 for the year:
38282, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7B ,
38281, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7G,

Tuesday, December 21, 2021: 77 for the month, 106 for the quarter, 332 for the year:
38301, conf, Armstrong, Fugere 31-23,
38283, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7F,

Monday, December 20, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:
None.

Sunday, December 19, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:
38185, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 7-21H,
37189, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9HU,

Saturday, December 18, 2021: 73 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 328 for the year:
36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL,

US Crude Oil In Supply Slips to 27.3 Days -- December 19, 2021

Link here.

One month ago: 28.5 days.

Most recent week: 27.3 days.

Week 50: December 12, 2021 -- December 18, 2021

Top story of the week:

• Brandon is still president.
• Kamala Harris: administration did not see Omicron coming.
• Brandon's SecEnergy to oil companies: "drill, drill, drill."
• Elon Musk: Time's person of the year.
  

Top energy story of the week.

• Production per US rig has almost doubled since 2019.
• SPR release? Why?
  

Top international non-energy story:

• LIBOR goes away at the end of the year.

Top international energy story:

• Coal.
• Lock downs = energy policy.
• Spare capacity being questioned. And, here.

Top national non-energy story:

• NDSU advances to national football championship.
• Apple's AirPods revenue.
• Housing starts surge.
• Covid spurs biggest rise in life-insurance payouts in a century.
• Inflation spikes.

Top national energy story:

• Rig production has almost doubled since 2019.
  
• US crude oil demand hits all-tine record.
  
• Production per US rig has almost doubled since 2019.
• Gasoline demand with slight uptick?
• Rigs don't matter.
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story; 

Top North Dakota energy:

• Bruin's FB Belford wells rolling out Bakken 4.5.
  

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators: 

• MRO's three-rig Bailey oil field program.
• The bountiful Bailey.
• The incredible Slawson Submariner wells.
• And, here, OMG, what Slawson is doing in Big Bend.
• And, here, stronger than ever.
• Sinclair fracking with large amounts of water.

Operations:

• ND active rigs doubled year/year.
• So much work left to be done in the Bakken.
• That dreaded Bakken decline.

Wells:

• An incredible Bruin Fort Berthold well.
• An incredible Slawson Submariner Federal well.

Flaring:

• US onshore flaring at lowest level since 2012.

Fracking:

• Is Bruin doing a double frack for its FB Belford wells?

Pipelines:

• Enbridge Line 5 case back in federal court.

Bakken economy:

• Spiritwood soybean renewable diesel fuel;

LIBOR Is Going .... Going .... December 19, 2021

A few years ago, it seemed CNBC talking heads were mentioning "LIBOR" every day. Then, all of sudden, nothing. I haven't heard anyone over at CNBC mention LIBOR in .... like, forever. Of course, I haven't watched much CNBC in the past few weeks. 

Over at "Data Links":

• LIBOR: the most important number in the world.   

And now, LIBOR is going away.

• Link: the wiki entry. 
• LIBOR news. 
• American Banker;
  
• The WSJ: companies could get extended accounting relief.
• financial authorities in 2017 moved to phase out Libor, which underpins trillions of dollars in corporate loans, derivatives and home mortgages, after a manipulation scandal. Companies are in varying stages of selecting a replacement rate and updating their systems to accommodate the switch.
• relief could extend through 2024
  
• Financial Times: finance industry in last-minute sprint to switch away form Libor.
• Reuters. "Y2K" walk into a $265 trillion sunset.
  

  Bankers and regulators will be at their screens on New Year's Eve to see if what was once dubbed the world's most important number slips quietly into the history books.

  The London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, is finally being switched off, ending its role pricing derivatives and loans ranging from mortgages and student loans to business funding and credit cards, which totalled $265 trillion globally as of the start of 2021.
  

  The rate is being scrapped a decade after banks were caught trying to rig it in what will be the biggest shake-up to markets since the introduction of the euro in 1999.

So, there you have it.

It is amazing: when I first heard the term LIBOR and looked it up, I said to myself, "Self, wow, if there's any vehicle perfectly for manipulation , it's LIBOR."  Little did I know.