Pages

Sunday, December 19, 2021

Parting Shot -- Matt Walsh, Twitter -- December 19, 2021

Link here.

"We are going to enter our third year of COVID with record numbers of cases but please remember that all of the measures we've taken to fight COVID have totally worked and we should keep doing the same thing indefinitely."

Einstein's definition of insanity.

Art Berman: Shale Companies Are Swimming In Cash -- December 19, 2021

Link here. Headline and story from Financial Times.

Two things to start: 

1. Au revoir, long-term European gas contracts. The European Commission has proposed banning deals between EU members and energy suppliers outside the bloc, such as Russia, that would last beyond 2049. That’s a long time away, but is the last year before the EU economy is supposed to have hit a net zero emissions target.
2. Remember peak oil consumption? US weekly oil demand soared last week, hitting a new record of almost 23.2m barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration, leaping by 17 per cent compared with a week earlier. The four-week average is not — yet — at a record high. 

That US demand number is startling

But Omicron seems certain now to decide whether the US — or indeed global — energy consumption continues to rise so quickly. 

OPEC remains sanguine about the variant, saying in its latest market report that the impact on demand “is expected to be mild and shortlived.”

The International Energy Agency was less confident, saying in its December oil-market report that Omicron “poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.

Much, much on the robust free cash flow for shale operators. This from the linked article:

Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest shale player, described it to me in Houston last week as a new “contract” between the industry investors. In Pioneer’s case that means growing by no more than 5 per cent annually and distributing a hefty chunk of free cash flow back to investors. And this new model is here to stay, he told me: “There’s no way that the industry is going to change overnight and start growing again.”

Market caps:

  • XOM: $256 billion
  • COP: $90 billion
  • EOG: $49 billion
  • PDX: $42 billion
  • DVN: $26 billion
  • HES: $22 billion

Reminder: Focus on Fracking -- Weekly Edition Posted — December 19, 2021

 Link here.

The lede:

  • total supplies at an 83-month low (almost seven years)
  • SPR approaching a 19-year low;
  • total demand at a record high;
  • distillates demand at 18+ year high;
  • global shortage at 1.2 million bopd -- that's per day, over one million bbl shortfall
  • at relatively high prices -- some folks might remove the "relatively" and just say "high prices" -- OPEC output falls 563,000 bopd short of quote
  • demand revisions now indicate oil shortage for all of 2021

Bakken-specific news

Pipeline:

North Dakota's Bakken production is lagging pre-pandemic levels, and Energy Transfer LP's Dakota Access Pipeline, which can carry about 570,000 bpd out of the region, is at about 77% of utilization, compared with nearly full utilization before the pandemic, Saxton said. However, Dakota Access' uncommitted tariff rate is $6.64 per barrel, above the around $6.28 per barrel before the pandemic, Saxton said. There are fewer pipes out of the Bakken than in the Permian.

Natural gas: Bakken production will continue to grow.

Capline Reversal -- Full Capacity -- January 11, 2021

Link here.

******************************************
EVs
Copper

NFL To End Mandatory Covid-19 Testing On Asymptomatic, Vaccinated Individuals -- December 19, 2021

Finally, a step in the right direction. 

NFL makes major change in Covid-19 testing protocol.

The NFL will stop mandating weekly COVID-19 tests for asymptomatic vaccinated players, according to memos distributed Saturday that described a major shift in the league's approach to the pandemic.

The new protocols, which take effect next week, could allow the virus to spread undetected through locker rooms, and could increase opportunities for infected but otherwise healthy players to participate in games.

This is a huge story. It will be interesting to see who follows the NFL.

*****************************
Merry Christmas From What-A-Burger

A Most Unusual Siting -- December 19, 2021

Recently completed Rimrock Oil & Gas wells, still on confidential list. Which way will the horizontal wells run?

The graphics:



So, let's check out those four wells noted above. None of the four were take off line?

  • 24130,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213190290731573681370
BAKKEN9-20212476775923127285570
BAKKEN8-20213110451119134511188880
BAKKEN7-202131116211271378123610050
BAKKEN6-20213010741126118011489260
  • 19696,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213126392503646161813990
BAKKEN9-2021245385084645563870
BAKKEN8-2021312953131055843540
BAKKEN7-2021313073002156293980
BAKKEN6-2021303123301485893670
  • 24131,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2021271212120419878846930
BAKKEN9-20213087585632417415330
BAKKEN8-20213110031050149610998680
BAKKEN7-20213191088013619877620
BAKKEN6-20213081684212629827600
BAKKEN5-20213181182314148278270
  • 24132,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2021291222123473311088980
BAKKEN9-2021291117106172910908900
BAKKEN8-2021267187277279297350
BAKKEN7-2021194354553107405980
BAKKEN6-20213077179832210358130

FBIR Johnson Wells, Heart Butte, Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 19, 2021

The wells:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213416519089
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213595720655
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213595220292
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213281718235
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213527019727

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 19, 2021

The wells:

  • 38379, conf, Rampart Energy, Coteau 1, Wildcat, SWSW 1-145-88;
  • 36997, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 7-27H1, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 36998, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 6-27H, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 38279, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7H, Heart Butte, the FBIR Johnson wells are tracked here; see this post for siting;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213416519089
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213595720655
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213595220292
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213281718235
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20213527019727
  • 38185, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 7-21H, Baker, no production data, 
  • 37189, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9HU, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 64K 10/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213117980178951600626481217744707
BAKKEN9-20213021064211912023722208179474261
BAKKEN8-20213118519184252826320117111318986
BAKKEN7-20219612560329314681014605350
BAKKEN6-20218190013913000
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2021301858318622102982584222537305
BAKKEN9-202113128801273482571416212223146
BAKKEN8-20213131390313463667039998379391241
BAKKEN7-20212940500405414020743835424321403
BAKKEN6-20211119332190162192217927163831209

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 19, 2021

Monday, December 27, 2021: 84 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 339 for the year:
38379, conf, rampart Energy, Coteau 1,

Sunday, December 26, 2021: 83 for the month, 112 for the quarter, 338 for the year:
36997, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 7-27H1,

Saturday, December 25, 2021: 82 for the month, 111 for the quarter, 337 for the year:
36998, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 6-27H,

Friday, December 24, 2021: 81 for the month, 110 for the quarter, 336 for the year:
38279, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7H,

Thursday, December 23, 2021: 80 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 335 for the year:
38280, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7C,

Wednesday, December 22, 2021: 79 for the month, 108 for the quarter, 334 for the year:
38282, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7B ,
38281, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7G,

Tuesday, December 21, 2021: 77 for the month, 106 for the quarter, 332 for the year:
38301, conf, Armstrong, Fugere 31-23,
38283, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7F,

Monday, December 20, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:
None.

Sunday, December 19, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:
38185, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 7-21H,
37189, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9HU,

Saturday, December 18, 2021: 73 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 328 for the year:
36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL,

US Crude Oil In Supply Slips to 27.3 Days -- December 19, 2021

Link here.

One month ago: 28.5 days.

Most recent week: 27.3 days.

Week 50: December 12, 2021 -- December 18, 2021

Top story of the week:

Top energy story of the week.

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story; 

Top North Dakota energy:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators

Operations:

Wells:

Flaring:

Fracking:

Pipelines:

  • Enbridge Line 5 case back in federal court.

Bakken economy:

LIBOR Is Going .... Going .... December 19, 2021

A few years ago, it seemed CNBC talking heads were mentioning "LIBOR" every day. Then, all of sudden, nothing. I haven't heard anyone over at CNBC mention LIBOR in .... like, forever. Of course, I haven't watched much CNBC in the past few weeks. 

Over at "Data Links":

And now, LIBOR is going away.

  • Link: the wiki entry. 
  • LIBOR news
  • American Banker;
  • The WSJ: companies could get extended accounting relief.
    • financial authorities in 2017 moved to phase out Libor, which underpins trillions of dollars in corporate loans, derivatives and home mortgages, after a manipulation scandal. Companies are in varying stages of selecting a replacement rate and updating their systems to accommodate the switch.
    • relief could extend through 2024
  • Financial Times: finance industry in last-minute sprint to switch away form Libor.
  • Reuters. "Y2K" walk into a $265 trillion sunset.
    Bankers and regulators will be at their screens on New Year's Eve to see if what was once dubbed the world's most important number slips quietly into the history books.

    The London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, is finally being switched off, ending its role pricing derivatives and loans ranging from mortgages and student loans to business funding and credit cards, which totalled $265 trillion globally as of the start of 2021.

    The rate is being scrapped a decade after banks were caught trying to rig it in what will be the biggest shake-up to markets since the introduction of the euro in 1999.

So, there you have it.

It is amazing: when I first heard the term LIBOR and looked it up, I said to myself, "Self, wow, if there's any vehicle perfectly for manipulation , it's LIBOR."  Little did I know.