A Zavanna Nelson Well In Long Creek Will Go Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative Before The End Of The Year -- October 17, 2021

 This page won't be updated. This well is followed elsewhere.

This well will go over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative by the end of the year.

• 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 1H, Long Creek, 35 stages; 3.8 million lbs; t8/12; cum 471K 1/20; off-line many months; see much more about this well as this post; back on line, doing very well; cum 494K 8/21; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1596	1608	2849	29144	28682	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1598	1245	3356	29874	29380	32
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1799	1742	2891	28637	27815	375
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1194	1204	2992	28587	28088	37
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	1084	1077	3668	27175	26551	177
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1914	1844	3582	29189	28726	1
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	1922	1862	3254	26263	25846	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	1957	1888	3014	27852	27390	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	2307	2199	4005	29001	28537	2
BAKKEN	11-2020	29	2679	2654	4280	27220	26786	2

Oasis Nikolai Federal Wells Starting To Report Production -- October 17, 2021

This page will not be updated. These wells are tracked elsewhere.  

The wells still being reported as confidential but now have production:

The NDIC is beginning to report production from several wells on this pad. 

• 35486, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolaw Federal 5397 42-33 2B, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 28K 6/21;
  
• 35485, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, A. Johnson/Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 3T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 8/21;
• 35483, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 5T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 7/21;
• 35482, PNC, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 6B, Banks,
• 35481, PNC, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 7T, Banks,
• 35730, 276, Oasis, A. Johnson/Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 6T, Banks, first production 6/20; t6/20; cum 90K 1/21; a 24K month; cum 119K 8/21;
  
• 35729, 670, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 42-33 7B, Banks, first production, 6/20; t6/20; cum190K 1/21; cum 236K 8/21;

The wells still being reported as confidential but now have production:

• 35486, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 2B, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 28K 6/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	24135	80743
7-2021	27012	82939
6-2021	27616	79445
5-2021	11954	43355

• 35485, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, A. Johnson/Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 3T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 8/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	29699	95650
7-2021	29490	81709
6-2021	28484	72672
5-2021	13662	31727

• 35483, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 5T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 7/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	27489	86538
7-2021	30111	80772
6-2021	26391	67770
5-2021	2722	7412

Yes, The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- The Oasis Wold Federal Well -- October 17, 2021

We start with the Oasis Wold Federal well here. At that link, note the very small production for that well as of July, 2020, only about 800 bbls / month.

These wells are now tracked here. 

Note the huge jump in production of the Oasis Wold Federal well, #20266, at this post, where that well and the neighboring wells are tracked.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	14	1511	1807	18391	6327	5518	384
BAKKEN	7-2021	16	3154	3067	7664	8827	8316	287
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	5474	5133	19015	4406	2966	1140
BAKKEN	5-2021	13	1200	942	5800	3185	2966	99
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	479	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	933	718	730	2860	2547	3
BAKKEN	2-2021	25	622	495	350	2460	2207	3
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	738	733	440	2803	2491	2
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	744	942	460	2841	2525	6
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	786	700	520	2775	2473	2
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	656	712	310	2656	2278	68
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	732	481	560	2908	2604	4
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	805	940	640	3057	2727	30
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	821	1170	670	3117	2796	11

Note the jump in production from 800 bbls / month to 5,500 bbls / month. 

So, now we will go back and update the wells at the first link above.

DRUbit Or Dilbit -- DRUbit-By-Rail -- DBR -- Game-Changer -- October 17, 2021

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.  

A reader alerted me to the story. Thank you.

Elections have consequences: this would not be a story had Resident Biden not canceled the Keystone XL. But here we go again. Assuming Biden's regulators don't stop the merger, and assuming the merger goes through, there will be a "new pipeline" running from western Canada to the US gulf coast.

The "new pipeline" will be above ground and run on two rails.

DBR, not CBR.

From The Star Tribune via Yahoo!Finance:

• the "new pipeline": Canadian Pacific - Kansas City Southern (one of many links here)
• new venture: USD Partners -- processes heavy oil with diluent and then loads it on rail tank cars;
  
• the "pipeline" bisects the Twin Cities
• could add as many as 15 to 20 oil trains through Minnesota each month
• would begin as early as 3Q21
• destination: Port Arthur, TX
• I don't know where this stands with regard to approval by US regulators, but it seems it would be difficult to halt the deal when Resident Biden said his administration is looking for additional ways to move "energy" around the nation -- LOL -- in addition:
  
• while remaining the smallest of six U.S. Class 1 railroads by revenue, the combined company will be a much larger and more competitive network, operating approximately 20,000 miles of rail, employing close to 20,000 people and generating total revenues of approximately $8.7 billion based on 2020 actual revenues. 
• so we'll see
• CP is already the largest rail shipper of oil in the state
• volume varies considerably: anywhere from five to nineteen "hazardous" trains per month
• but get this:The new oil trains running from USD's terminal aren't likely to be tallied in those state counts. USD said the oil is not hazardous cargo as defined under U.S. and Canadian transportation regulations.
• folks can correct me but this is my understanding:
• Houston-based USD Partners will process / load the diluent-bitumen at their facilities in Hardisty, east-central Alberta, Canada unto the CP-KCS railroad
• the diluent - bitumen slurry is abbreviated to "dilbit" but DB Partners refers to this as DRUbit-by-rail (DBR) 
• the DRU facility in Hardisty is, apparently near completion, if not already completed
  

Folks will argue about this for quite some time, but one wonders whether DBR through the Twin Cities would even be an issue if the Keystone XL had not been canceled and had other pipelines not been delayed, deferred, or canceled (see Liberty Pipeline).

Let's Go Brandon! October 17, 2021

 

So, "Batman, riddle me this. If there's a five-million-bopd overhang" (Harold Hamm) and we now have fifteen to twenty more unit trains each month carrying oil from western Canada to Texas starting by the end of the year (see this note), why is crude oil continuing to increase in price? -- The Riddler.

October 17, 2021, 8:23 p.m. CT: WTI trading at $83.41. Remember: Jim Cramer called the top at $81 - $82 about a week ago. Later, $83.57 at 10:00 p.m. CT.

So, far Jim Cramer is wrong on the trend -- WTI is going the wrong way. However, one can argue $83 is is same trading "range" as $81 - $82. So, we'll see.

Let's Go Brandon! The Sports Page -- October 17, 2021

NASCAR: first of three races for the "group of eight."

NFL: Dallas, later afternoon game.  Later: how about them Cowboys?

• Kansas City Chiefs will win today
• Green Bay clobbers Chicago Cubs
  
• Sunday night football: Seahawks vs Steelers (yawn) -- sorry! I know I will get a note from my one Seattle Seahawks fan. Sorry.
  

Advice to networks:

• do not cut away for commercials. Use "side-by-side" if commercials must be shown;
• as soon as a commercial hits, I move to another game, race, or tournament (PGA); I don't have time to waste on commercials
• once I switch I tend not to move on, unless the game, race, or tournament is really, really boring 
• next best thing: AI to immediately move to another sports venue when commercial comes on
  

Same with paywalls. 

Why Earth is not ready for EVs. Nothing new here. Link to Felicity Bradstock.

Apple TV: Steve Jobs tried for years to get solve the problem. Two things he needed:

• content: getting there;
• one remote: Jobs / Apple, Inc failed; but Hulu streaming + Amazon Firestick succeeeded -- one remote. Incredible. Hulu + Amazon Firestick seems to work off iTunes format -- something Steve Jobs wanted; could never achieve in his lifetime
  

Energy Notes -- Part 11 -- October 17, 2021

See this post.

It seems that story is being reported / repeated more and more. That post linked to Simon Watkins.

Now, this from Alex Kimani: how much oil can OPEC realistically add? For Alex:

• Only 5 producers in the OPEC+ alliance are able to significantly boost output in the short term

• Africa's oil giants Nigeria and Angola are the hardest hit, with the pair having pumped an average of 276kbpd below their quotas for more than a year now

• U.S. shale cannot be expected to fill the supply gap

China and LNG: link to Tsvetana Paraskova -- China seeks long-term US LNG supply amid energy crisis. 

Several Chinese energy giants have intensified discussions with U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters to secure long-term supply deals in light of record spot prices in Asia, rising demand, and the specter of power shortages. 

China and many other energy importers in Asia are scrambling to procure gas and coal supplies ahead of the winter amid a global energy crunch. The higher demand after the pandemic and the muted supply response have sent China’s coal futures and Asia’s LNG spot prices to record highs in recent days. 

Threatened with power outages, China is now looking to secure long-term U.S. LNG supplies, despite the tense bilateral relations and the trade spat. Long-term deals would also protect buyers from spikes in spot LNG prices, which the market is seeing these days. 

At least five major Chinese energy firms, including China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and Sinopec, are in advanced discussions for long-term LNG deliveries with American suppliers including Cheniere Energy and Venture Global.

Hey, Greta: coal generation in UK jumps as wind speed drops. Link to Charles Kennedy.

Coal met some 3 percent of the UK’s electricity demand on Friday morning, reaching its highest level of Britain’s power generation in one month, amid lower wind speeds this week and an outage at a gas-powered plant.

The last time the UK generated 3 percent of its electricity from coal was in early September when low wind generation reduced renewable power supply and triggered the massive spikes in UK wholesale electricity prices.

Utility Uniper fired up its coal-powered plant in Ratcliffe early on Friday, while the gas-fired plant in Pembroke, Wales, operated by RWE, suffered an unplanned outage.

Over the past week, gas has consistently accounted for the largest share of the UK’s electricity generation, according to data from National Grid ESO. For example, on Wednesday, gas produced 44.8 percent of Britain’s electricity, more than wind with 19.2 percent and nuclear with 12.6 percent.

Surging natural gas prices and warm and still weather in September forced the UK to fire up an old coal plant that was on standby in order to meet its electricity demand.

Germany: new administration says Germany will exit coal in 2030, eight years earlier than expected. US LNG companies will bank money.  Link here. 

Space poll:

• which billionaire will win the space race? The results surprised me:
• Jeff Bezos: 13%
• Elon Musk: 56%
• that other guy: 31%

New poll: when we last posted WTI it was trading above $82. Jim Cramer said WTI has peaked. Quick poll: will WTI trend lower (by at least a dollar) on Monday?

Quick: A Pop Quiz With Answers -- October 17, 2021

Comparing June 14, 2017, with October 14, 2021.

• Quick: what was the price of WTI on June 14, 2017? Answer here. $46.04.

• Quick: how much crude oil was in storage in the US that week? Answer here. 511.5 million bbls.

• Quick: how much crude oil is currently in storage in the US right now? About 427 million bbls.

• Quick: how much crude oil was in storage in the US based on days of supply on June 14, 2017? Answer here. 29.5 days.

• Quick: how much crude oil was in storage in the US based on days of supply right now? About 27 days. 

• Quick: as an investor, were you doing better in 2017 or 2021?
  

Whip Inflation Now! Pop It! October 17, 2021

Inflation: link to The Wall Street Journal. 

The consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 5.4% in September from a year earlier. 

Rising energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and an increase in spending have led to higher inflation across the country. 

While prices rose across the board for the year ended last month, the degree of change varied among different geographic regions and populations. 

Among the metropolitan areas surveyed, the largest and most urban places had some of the lowest price increases. Chicago saw an increase of 4.5%, and in the New York City area there was a 3.8% increase. The Northeast region’s rate was nearly a percentage point below the overall national level.

Rural consumers’ mean expenditures on gasoline and used cars and trucks were well above those of urban-area consumers in 2020.

Households outside urban areas spent 37% more than the U.S. average on used cars and trucks, while spending in central cities was 9% lower than the average. The spending category saw one of the largest price increases in September’s CPI, up 24.4% compared with a year earlier.

On the other hand, rent, a heavyweight in central-city consumers’ budgets, saw some of the smallest price increases in September.

Spend some time on this graphic. It speaks volumes:

Inflation if one "takes out" used cars?

• gasoline: it's always been inexpensive in the big scheme of things; we've done the math several times on the blog
• giving up Starbucks completely and one sushi dinner / month more than pays for gasoline
  
• folks tell their insurance companies they drive 12,000 miles per year
• new cars average at least 35 mpg (buying pick-up trucks, high-guzzling SUVs, etc, is a choice)
• 12,000 / 35 = 350 gallons / year
• $4/gallon = $1,400 / year
• Starbucks: daily average, $3 / visit
• 300 visits x $3 = $900 
• sushi dinner for two = $50
• once a month = $600
  

Dining out vs eating at home:

• generally speaking, a couple can eat at home for less money than the tip when dining out at a fancy sushi restaurant. 
• if you doubt me, do the math
  

A toy, link here. 

 
A most interesting story: invented in 1975 by classmates of Anne Frank. Yes, that Anne Frank.

• invented in 1975
• too expensive to manufacture until ... 2009
• Canadian-based company looking for the next pet rock
• exclusive agreement with Target in 2019
• and the rest, as they say, is history.

**********************************
Sophia's New Work Area

Reason #2 Why I Love To Blog -- October 17, 2021

See these posts:

• October 15, 2021: Slim Chickens goes vertical; photo posted.
• September 22, 2021: announced.

I have never been to a Slim Chickens, but I will go soon. 

Slim Chickens, wiki:

Slim Chickens is a fast-casual restaurant chain which specializes in chicken tenders, wings, sandwiches, salads, wraps, chicken & waffles, and other items. 

It was founded in 2003 by Greg Smart and Tom Gordon.

The first location opened in 2003 at 2120 N. College Avenue in Fayetteville, Arkansas, inside a building formerly home to a sushi restaurant. 

In 2005, the second location opened in the nearby city of Rogers. 

The chain's expansion accelerated in 2008 with five more company-owned locations opening in Arkansas and Oklahoma. 

In 2013, the first franchise location was opened in Texarkana by businessman Greg McKay.

The next year, six regional franchise deals were made. The company has since expanded with more than 100 locations in 19 states, with international locations in the UK and Kuwait. The 100th location officially opened at 16105 Chenal Parkway in Little Rock on Dec. 18, 2020. 

Founders: link here. 

Some random comments:

• does anyone notice a peculiar theme regarding geographic locations?
• talk about perfect timing: new location in Williston, ND, at same time Trenton, ND, wins the $2.8 billion lottery;
• these guys are smart; where do most of the oil workers in Norht Dakota come from?
• founded in 2003 -- less than twenty years later;
• we have several locations in DFW metropolitan area; whoo-hoo!

The graphics:

The Zabolotny Wells -- Update -- October 17, 2021

This page will not be updated; these wells are tracked elsewhere.

Coming off confidential this week:

• 37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife, this is very, very exciting for at least one reader; a reader notified me of this permit some time ago; permitted November 20, 2020; and, now its producing oil; the Zabolotny wells are tracked here;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	12394	11385
7-2021	458	25

Let's update the others:

The wells :

• 37987, a new permit, November 20, 2020, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife,
• 35629, 755, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-3H, Little Knife, t7/19; cum 7K over 11 days; cum 145K 8/21; not taken off line;
  
• 35628, 649, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H, Little Knife, t7/19; cum 38K 8/19; cum 131K 8/21; not taken off line;
  
• 21534, 783, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3A-10-1H, Little Knife, t5/12; cum 781 bbls 5/12; cum 202K 8/21; was off line 4/21 - 7/21; back on line 8/21; no halo effect;
  
• 15934, PA/82, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 4D-4-2H, Little Knife, t5/06; cum 13K 3/14;
• 15046, 11, Petro-Hunt/Flying J Oil & Gas, Zabolotny 8-4, a Duperow well, Little Knife, this was a Red River well that produced 65K, completed back in 2001; now it's a Duperow well; cum 18K 8/21;
  
• 6225, 1,392, Petro-Hunt/Gulf Oil, Zabolotny 2-3-3-C, Little Knife field, Madison Pool, t12/77; cum 3.0321 million bbls 6/17 and still producing 1,000 bbls/month; 6/17; on the monster well list; see this post; cum 3.078941 million bbls; still producing 1,000 bbls/month;

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- October 17, 2021

The wells:

• 36928, conf,  Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, I haven't tracked the FBIR Guyblackhawk wells so far but will start doing that later today;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	74347	41869
7-2021	4011	1513

• 36917, conf,  Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35HU, Robinson Lake, see recent post regarding the Satterthwaite wells;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	20514	6761
7-2021	14926	9202
6-2021	5363	0
5-2021	4826	0

• 36065, conf,  Enerplus, Obsidian 147-93-16B-21H-TF, Moccasin Creek; the Enerplus "Igneous Rock" pad is tracked here;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	14305	9498
7-2021	11941	8123
6-2021	11712	7911
5-2021	798	311
4-2021	2948	1569

• 37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6, Manitou; the EN-Joyce wells are tracked here; the Manitou oil field is tracked here but needs to be updated;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	14705	20260
7-2021	17104	20791
6-2021	19891	26554
5-2021	51160	58241
4-2021	18287	25524

• 36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	11237	11355
7-2021	14290	9173
6-2021	5054	9661
5-2021	20062	37150
4-2021	4516	6796

• 38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW, Westberg, how fast can the Bakken swing? See this post. This well was permitted March 4, 2021, and was producing oil less than five months later.
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	20823	44816

• 37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, Bully; at least four different oil fields in the Bakken have Sorenson wells; at least four different operators have Sorenson wells; the Bully oil field is tracked here but has not been updated since 2015;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	12580	21155
7-2021	17102	25807
6-2021	18947	36790
5-2021	15850	25009
4-2021	10135	18838

• 37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife, this is very, very exciting for at least one reader; a reader notified me of this permit some time ago; permitted November 20, 2020; and, now its producing oil; the Zabolotny wells are tracked here;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	12394	11385
7-2021	458	25

• 36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	17123	16661
7-2021	25187	22145
6-2021	26807	51363
5-2021	36186	64053
4-2021	15885	24973

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 17, 2021

Monday, October 25, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 244 for the year:
36928, conf,  Rimrock, FBIR Guybalckhawk 24X-27D,
36917, conf,  Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35HU,
36065, conf,  Enerplus, Obsidian 147-93-16B-21H-TF,

Sunday, October 24, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 241 for the year:
37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6,
36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10,

Saturday, October 23, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
None.

Friday, October 22, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW,

Thursday, October 21, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H,

Wednesday, October 20, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, October 19, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:
37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H,
36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10,

Monday, October 18, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Sunday, October 17, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Saturday, October 16, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

TSMC Update: 2 NM Chips In Development -- October 17, 2021

Link to April 26, 2021, update. TSMC update: 2nm in development, 3nm and 4nm on track for 2022. 

TSMC was the first company to start high volume manufacturing (HVM) of chips using its N5 (5 nm) process technology in mid-2020.

Initially, the node was used solely for TSMC's alpha customers — Apple and HiSilicon. Shipments to the latter ceased on September 14, which left all of the leading-edge capacity to Apple.

By now, more customers are ready with their N5 designs, so the adoption of this node is growing. Meanwhile, TSMC says more customers are planning to use N5 family of technologies (including N5, N5P, and N4) than it expected just several months ago.

For blog entry noting this development, see this link.

Semiconductor chips are tracked at this post at the blog. 

I don't know how thick the average Pringles chip is but traditional potato chips are made by slcing raw potatoes into pieces that are between 0.035 and 0.070 inches thick.

0.050 inch = 1,270,000 nm. 

Keywords: Pringles, TSMC, OMG.

CLR: 2Q21 -- Anticipating 3Q21 -- October 17, 2021

In a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

CLR is tracked here.

CLR is scheduled to report 3Q21 earnings, November 1, 2021.

EPS: previous two quarters:

• estimate, both quarters: 55 cents:
• actual, both quarters: 91 cents

EPS: 3Q21, forecast: $1.17

This might be a good time to remind folks of CLR's 2Q21 earnings call. Transcript here.

Some highlights, facts and comments interspersed; hard to tell the difference:

• earnings call focused mostly on the Bakken;
• no mention of the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale; watch for that in the 3Q21 earnings call; my hunch: won't be mentioned
• significant free cash flow being returned to shareholders
• quarterly dividend increased to 15 cents per share; previous 11 cents
  
• opted for $1 billion share buyback vs larger dividend
• record-breaking $634 million free cash flow
• reduced net debt by $284 million; 2Q21 debt: $4.59 billion
• $284 million / $4.59 billion = at this rate, only 16 quarters to go, or four years -- in the big scheme of things, that seems pretty amazing;
• ytd: $1.34 billion in free cash flow
• most recent quarter accounted for 21%; straight-line: 25%
• exceeded production guidance; currently delivering 167,000 boepd
• hedging
• unhedged on crude oil
• natural gas: 50% of CLR's volume currently hedged
• but no hedging whatsoever in 2022
• free cash flow
• as of the end of 2Q21, CLR had already generated free cash flow forecast for the entirety of 2021
• free cash flow potential this year: $2.4 billion; that would be at a slightly fast rater than first half 2021;
• CAPEX: has not changed; reinvestment rate is trending toward 35%
• debt outlook looks great at $50 - $55 WTI
• production forecast, for 2021:
• 900,000 to one million bcf/day (that needs to be fact checked; transcript error)
• reminder: new futures contract to start trading by end of year: the Midland WTI American Gulf Coast
• task force led by Harold Hamm; along with efforts by Magellan and EPD
• operations
• brought on 108 gross operated wells: 70 - Bakken; 38 - Oklahoma
• Bakken type curves right on track
• 45% more boe per $1,000 spent in the first twelve months than CLR did in 2018
• DAPL: 1.6 million bopd; Bakken produced on average 1.1 million bopd in May, 2021
• Long Creek Unit: eleven completions in 2Q21; costing $6.1 million / well
• most interesting: CLR feels there is an excess of five million bbls/day crude oil production on a global basis;
  

Elon Musk, Electricity, And Road To California -- October 17, 2021

Elon Musk: I guess because this story posted over the weekend a lot of folks will miss it. It will be interesting if this is covered on CNBC Monday? The Daily Star is reporting that Elon Musk's wealth swelled to an astonishing $230 billion, following a share sale at SpaceX, making Musk richer than Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined. From the linked article:

Musk’s obscene personal fortune increased following a share sale at SpaceX as well the strong performance of Tesla stock.

Bezos had previously held the title as the world's richest person, with a boom at Amazon over the coronavirus pandemic seeing his net worth climb to $191 billion (£139 billion).

Musk is now richer than Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined, both of whom have previously held the title as the world's richest person.

Comment: so what's so "obscene" about that?

Road to California: link to The WSJ. This is another must-read story. California scrambles to find electricity to offset plant closures. State to struggle with coming loss of gas-fired power plants and its last remaining nuclear facility to transition to renewable energy.

• the nuclear plant provides nearly 10 percent of all electricity generated in the state
• the California Public Utilities Commission has ordered utilities to buy an unprecedented amount of renewable energy and battery storage as the state phases out four natural-gas-fired power plants and retires Diablo Canyon, the state’s last nuclear plant, starting in 2024;
• from where does one think those batteries will be coming? See previous note: Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world, surpassing Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined.
• it should be noted there is minimal EV penetration in California;

Not so fast: this story was published three days ago, so it's very current. It appears that ... well, I don't have time for this. If interested, go to the link. This is all I need to know:

It's the latest setback for the project, originally expected to cost $33 billion and be completed last year. Today the vision of shuttling passengers between Los Angeles and San Francisco in less than three hours is a distant dream. The first leg of rideable track, connecting two cities in the Central Valley, won't start until at least 2029, and the project's costs have ballooned to $98 billion.

Little political will seems to exist to either kill the project outright or to give it more resources, leaving construction to continue without a long-term plan.

At the center of the latest dispute is how soon to electrify the line, which rail officials say is a necessity to make the train high speed — the whole idea of the project that voters were sold on. They want to enter into a contract next year for a firm to design and construct an electrified track and system and to maintain it for 30 years, effectively locking in the state for the long haul.

Takeaway: Merced, CA, at center of boondoggle. Might be interesting to track politics in this district.

Bullet train is tracked here.

The original road to California: Route 66, New Mexico.This is a great link sent to me by a reader. One could spend all night on this one. And I did. LOL.