Of the ten years of blogging this has been one of the busiest, most interesting days. And so much yet to do.
Selling these ...
... at the USPS one at a time for exact change only would solve two problems immediately:
Just saying.
Just noting that permit / file number #37792 does not exist over among the scout tickets. For the archives.
Updates
Later, 12:09 a.m., August 19, 2020: for additional computations see the first comment which I've brought up here:
I looked up the cost of the battery plant Tesla is building at Moss Landing (on the site of an existing power plant to use the tranmission infrastructure) and the cost per MWH works out to $110K (80million/730MWH).
That's 4 hours @ 182MW.
Tesla has the lowest battery costs of basically anyone. So ... if California needs 4000MW x 4 hours = 16000 MWH of capacity that would be $1.8Bn. @JoeBiden would write them that check...
And Elon Musk would love to endorse it.
Original Post
From an earlier post either last night or early this morning:
A reader has done the math. With a little editing:
Well, there is one little problem. Below you see the math for 1000 MW storage. Just multiple by 4 = $28.8 billion.
Even the most optimistic (lying through their green teeth) battery storage promoters shouldn’t be taken seriously when projecting Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) at less than $200/KWh.
$200,000/MWh, $200 Million/1000 MWh.
Getting through the 3 PM – 9 PM peak requires $200 million X 6 hrs for every 1,000 MW of demand = $1.2 billion. (I have no idea what current real world prices are for storage, but my hunch is that it’s about $600/KWh. = $7.2 billion for 6 hours of 1,000 MW demand….give it up).
If there are errors in the editing, blame me but the point is well taken.
Record IPs in the Bakken, FAQ #9. Until tonight before the MRO wells were added, #25272 (below) was the most recent Bakken well to be added as perhaps one of the "record IP" wells in the Bakken:
So, what now? Well, look at this. In today's daily activity report, CLR hs three new permits.
And .. drum roll ... located in the same section, SESE 26-147-96:
The CLR Carson Peak / Morris wells are tracked here.
I have to pause to take a breath; slow down. This is becoming overwhelming.
First: I've solved the mystery of the EIA natural gas fill rate. No one may agree with me, but I know I'm correct. We all have our worldviews, and I have mine. Focus on Fracking probably solved the problem weeks ago. LOL. As noted years ago, I've never understood natural gas, but I think I'm getting a bit closer. I might come back to that graph later. The graph is quite educational.
Second: A reader sent me a huge spreadsheet with the number of wells drilled, completed, and drilled/completed (DUCs) since 2013 in the shale basins across the earlier this evening. I posted a smaller version of that spreadsheet and will come back to it later. It's the first time I've had that much data for something I've talked about for quite some time but based on anecdotal data. I need to come back and re-iterate some points I've been making for years, but I won't get back to it for a few days.
Third: the S&P 500 hit an all-time closing record today. Of the three major indices, the S&P is #1 among equals. I don't care how the analysts spin it, that was a big, big deal. And futures suggest there is more room to run.
I better put in the disclaimer now.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Fourth: in today's NDIC daily activity report MRO reported four huge completed DUCs, and when one looked a bit more closely, there was actually a fifth monster well. See this post. It's now the featured post, linked at the sidebar at the right.
All I can say now is "thank goodness" for YouTube. I began with one of my favorite songs and now, non-stop, YouTube is playing a playlist that could be "my greatest hits" playlist. LOL.
Slow down, take a breath. This is only Tuesday.
First:
Second:
So many story lines, but I've run out of superlatives for the Bakken.
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed by MRO, August 18, 2020:
****************************************
A Closer Look
36659, drl/A, MRO, Sunwall USA 41-17H, API: 33-061-04518, Reunion Bay, SESE 8-151-93, t--; cum 177K 4.5 months; a 60K month; fracked 1/21/20 - 1/31/20; 7.7 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 89% water by mass;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 6-2020 | 29 | 20683 | 20762 | 11700 | 41271 | 16015 | 23941 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2020 | 31 | 34588 | 34963 | 19299 | 60096 | 20488 | 37477 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 57288 | 56834 | 34183 | 82979 | 17611 | 61958 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 29 | 36275 | 36647 | 42768 | 39796 | 6954 | 30678 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 11 | 28387 | 27728 | 41788 | 26100 | 1810 | 22596 |
36660, drl/A, MRO, Shortall USA 14-9H, API: 33-061-04519, Reunion Bay. SESE 8-151-93, t--; cum 241K 4.5 months; two 60K months; fracked 1/21/20 - 1/31/20; 7.1 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 88.6% water by mass;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 6-2020 | 29 | 29580 | 29537 | 14273 | 52530 | 28263 | 22458 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2020 | 31 | 41378 | 41408 | 20976 | 64515 | 26792 | 35252 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 63143 | 63436 | 28331 | 79258 | 17534 | 58061 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 30 | 61507 | 61382 | 41139 | 76504 | 13366 | 59572 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 14 | 44942 | 44330 | 27594 | 52692 | 3211 | 46936 |
36798, drl/A, MRO, Walsh USA 11-16TFH, API: 33-061-04550, Reunion Bay, SESE 8-51-93, t--; cum 141K 4 months; one 45K month; fracked 1/21/20 - 1/31/20; 7.8 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 89.1% water by mass;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 6-2020 | 29 | 24658 | 24654 | 19837 | 43874 | 16919 | 25411 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2020 | 31 | 31912 | 31982 | 24359 | 43226 | 14609 | 26699 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 31562 | 31513 | 33249 | 40452 | 8229 | 30366 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 29 | 45277 | 45097 | 51569 | 53036 | 8786 | 41546 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 4 | 7695 | 7516 | 9747 | 7893 | 0 | 7470 |
Graphics for the above three wells:
****************************************
36859, drl/A, MRO, Rock Woman USA 41-4TFH, API: 33-053-09177, Sanish-Antelope, t--; cum 209K over three months; a whopping 97K month; fracked 2/24/20 - 3/6/20; 8.0 million gallons of water (moderate frack); proppant composition not provided;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 6-2020 | 29 | 54387 | 54355 | 19176 | 105096 | 73666 | 28239 |
| SANISH | 5-2020 | 24 | 57748 | 57507 | 22053 | 94067 | 74938 | 15730 |
| SANISH | 4-2020 | 28 | 96941 | 96781 | 47283 | 60659 | 0 | 55094 |
| SANISH | 3-2020 | 2 | 318 | 0 | 46 | 1947 | 0 | 1930 |
Graphics for this well:
What about the sister well to #36859?
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 6-2020 | 30 | 46883 | 46758 | 17360 | 96072 | 67979 | 25330 |
| SANISH | 5-2020 | 23 | 41978 | 41888 | 15805 | 70865 | 56979 | 11408 |
| SANISH | 4-2020 | 30 | 87489 | 87057 | 37429 | 19230 | 0 | 14261 |
| SANISH | 3-2020 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1027 | 262 | 0 | 262 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 6-2020 | 30 | 3388 | 3418 | 5916 | 5744 | 3811 | 1736 |
| SANISH | 5-2020 | 27 | 6171 | 6094 | 4993 | 6730 | 4966 | 1410 |
| SANISH | 4-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 3-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 2-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 1-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 12-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 11-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 10-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 9-2019 | 23 | 3184 | 3285 | 979 | 5758 | 0 | 5444 |
| SANISH | 8-2019 | 19 | 1985 | 2520 | 668 | 3631 | 0 | 3408 |
| SANISH | 7-2019 | 31 | 3050 | 2795 | 843 | 5574 | 25 | 5190 |
| SANISH | 6-2019 | 30 | 3032 | 3112 | 653 | 5926 | 1642 | 3928 |
| SANISH | 5-2019 | 31 | 3096 | 3021 | 665 | 6099 | 2506 | 3251 |
| SANISH | 4-2019 | 30 | 3598 | 3816 | 897 | 7282 | 3249 | 3649 |
Active rigs:
| $42.60 | 8/18/2020 | 08/18/2019 | 08/18/2018 | 08/18/2017 | 08/18/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 12 | 61 | 59 | 53 | 33 |
Three new oil and gas permits: #37793 - #37795, inclusive --
Five permits renewed:
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
A reader sent me a spreadsheet of the number of wells drilled, completed, and drilled/not completed (DUCs) on a monthly basis from December, 2013, through July, 2020, and including six oil and gas shale basins and one region in the continental US.
His analysis:
It was not feasible to post the entire spreadsheet of all six basins and one region on the blog, but I have produced the data for the two basins that interest me the most: the Bakken and the Permian. Note: in the spreadsheet below, the gap between the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. As usual, there may be typographical and/or content errors. If I find them, I will correct them later:
|
|
Permian |
Permian |
Permian |
Bakken |
Bakken |
Bakken |
|
|
Drilled |
Completed |
DUCs |
Drilled |
Completed |
DUCs |
|
Dec 13 |
|
|
659 |
|
|
570 |
|
Jan 14 |
581 |
590 |
650 |
178 |
143 |
605 |
|
July 14 |
613 |
601 |
813 |
250 |
243 |
709 |
|
Dec 14 |
634 |
577 |
1042 |
226 |
207 |
728 |
|
Jan 17 |
352 |
259 |
1299 |
63 |
52 |
811 |
|
July 17 |
414 |
313 |
1711 |
96 |
103 |
765 |
|
Dec 17 |
474 |
382 |
2037 |
79 |
65 |
774 |
|
Jan 18 |
489 |
403 |
2123 |
107 |
72 |
809 |
|
Jul 18 |
568 |
512 |
2468 |
135 |
155 |
781 |
|
Dec 18 |
538 |
416 |
2951 |
109 |
70 |
793 |
|
Jan 19 |
585 |
469 |
3067 |
121 |
71 |
843 |
|
Jul 19 |
546 |
515 |
3500 |
117 |
124 |
869 |
|
Dec 19 |
449 |
453 |
3351 |
95 |
86 |
866 |
|
Jan 20 |
449 |
438 |
3362 |
100 |
86 |
880 |
|
July 20 |
138 |
98 |
3520 |
19 |
13 |
902 |
There are so many story lines here.
It is quite interesting, the timing of this report, the spreadsheet above, that it arrived just as I completed a reply to a comment concerning this data.
See comment and my long reply at this post.
I'll come back to this later tonight, but right now I'm spending time with Sophia.
Re-posting:
Homebuilder sentiment: jumps to record high. Highest in 35-year history; matches record set in 1998.
Builder confidence in the newly built, single-family home market jumped 6 points to 78 in August on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment.
The index is now at the highest level in the 35-year history of the monthly series and matches the record set in December 1998. Builder sentiment plunged to 30 in April, when the coronavirus pandemic shut down the U.S. economy, but it recovered quickly as consumers suddenly sought more space in less urban areas.
******************************
Miscellaneous
Air travel: in June, 70% said flying was somewhat or very unsafe.
Escape from NYC: snowball turning into a boulder -- Fox's Charles Payne (a "snowball" analogy in the middle of a heat wave less than clever)
Gin sale: Ryan Reynolds' Aviation gin sells to Diageo for $610 million. Aviation gin known for sharing profits with military. Diageo also bought George Clooney's tequila brand Casamigos in 2017. I've long since followed Diageo but it's a giant, owning spirits like Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff.
Gin's global renaissance has taken off in the states in recent years. I went though my martini phase a couple of years ago, and Aviation gin was one I favored, for various reasons. For the record, I no longer drink martinis.
Coronavirus: Chicago's "$66-million coronavirus hospital" treated only 38 patients.
Cornavius vaccine: will be available long after Covid-19 is a thing. Expect to see widespread availability of the vaccine no sooner than late 2021. Barron's.
Calpers: California state panel to investigate complaints of investment conflict. Well, duh. The WSJ.
Kids back in school. Sort of "back to school" this year. But they are not at the swimming pool during the day. I generally have the entire pool to myself when I go out there at 10:00 a.m. I try to get in three two-hour sessions every day. I'm not in the pool actually swimming all that times, but enjoy reading poolside when not swimming. 10:00 to noon, for sure. 4:00 to 6:00 (often with Sophia). 8:00 to 10:00. Generally I only get in three hours total but the goal is six. Some days I only get two sessions. The season will end soon.
I can't blog at the pool or do much surfing on the net. The manager's business office, which has free wi-fi, barely reaches to the far side of the pool where I like to hang out, and is very, very, very slow.
I'll finish Out of Africa this week. Not sure what I'll go to next.
First things first: bankruptcy court approves Whiting's reorganization plans, The Williston Herald.
Under the plan approved by the Southern District of Texas Bankruptcy Court, Whiting will shed $2.4 billion of its debts, in a $3.4 billion bankruptcy reorganization that will leave 97 percent of its ownership in the hands of private equity firms and investors and 3 percent with existing stockholders.
- revolving fund's credit limit will be $1.5 billion
- target date: September 1; until then, changes possible
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Homebuilder sentiment: jumps to record high.
Builder confidence in the newly built, single-family home market jumped 6 points to 78 in August on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment.
The index is now at the highest level in the 35-year history of the monthly series and matches the record set in December 1998. Builder sentiment plunged to 30 in April, when the coronavirus pandemic shut down the U.S. economy, but it recovered quickly as consumers suddenly sought more space in less urban areas.
Home depot: smashes 2Q20 earnings forecasts.
Walmart: earnings soar, led by nearly 100% surge in e-commerce;
ISO California (and later, see this note):
Record demand, record prices: Permian supply concerns push Southern California winter gas prices toward record highs. Link here.
OPEC basket, link here: $44.94.
******************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $42.68 | 8/18/2020 | 08/18/2019 | 08/18/2018 | 08/18/2017 | 08/18/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 12 | 61 | 59 | 53 | 33 |
Only one well coming off confidential list --Tuesday, August 18, 2020: 55 for the month; 126 for the quarter, 572 for the year:
RBN Energy: is New England's on-and-off-embrace of gas-fired power headed for a fall?
The U.S. power sector’s shift to natural gas over the past few years has been a boon to gas producers across the Lower 48, especially in the Northeast. Scores of new gas-fired power plants have been built there during the Shale Era, and a number of coal-fired, oil-fired, and nuclear plants have been taken offline. New England is a case in point; gas-fired power now accounts for about half of the installed generating capacity in the six-state region (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine) — three times what it was 20 years ago. But New Englanders have a love-hate relationship with natural gas, and with renewables and energy storage on the rise, gas’s role in the land of the Red Sox, hard-to-understand accents, and lobsta’ rolls may well have peaked. Today, we discuss recent developments on the natural gas and power generation fronts in the northeastern corner of the U.S.