Focus On Fracking Posted -- June 21, 2020

Well, I thought my previous note was the last note of the night. Not to be.

The weekly edition of Focus on Fracking has been posted. Another incredible week.

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Please Don't Write Me On This One

I've read that the statue of Theodore Roosevelt will be removed from the Natural History Museum in NYC. Please don't write me on this one.  I find it hard to believe this statue was ever put up in the first place. What WERE they thinking?

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Don't Write Me On This One Either

John Bolton says he will vote for Joe Biden. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

Hess -- Crescent Point Energy -- June 21, 2020

Last note for the night. This is bugging me.

A reader wrote me sometime in the last four weeks that there was business activity involving Hess and Crescent Point Energy. I do remember the specifics of the note, but I couldn't find anything to verify what the reader sent me so I did not post it.

Earlier this week, the NDIC daily activity report reported that two Crescent Point Energy wells were transferred to Hess as the new operator.

Maybe others have noticed something or know something.

A fairly superficial google search was not helpful.

The NGI Shale Daily did have a story that looked promising, was dated June 19th, but for the year 2018.

Again, this is from 2018:

• Crescent Point Energy Corp. plans to sell some of its noncore assets in the Williston Basin for a total of C$280 million in a pair of transactions expected to close by the end of the month (June, 2018).
• Crescent Point in early May said it signed a nonbinding letter of intent to sell Williston assets for about C$225 million; a second transaction, valued at about C$55 million, has also been agreed to. Buyers were not named.
• Current operated and nonoperated production from the assets is about 4,800 boe/d.
• As a result of the dispositions, Crescent Point adjusted its 2018 average production guidance to 181,000 boe/d, weighted 90% to oil and natural gas liquids, and exit production guidance to 190,000 boe/d. Capital expenditures guidance for 2018 remains unchanged at C$1.78 billion. Proceeds of the deals are to go toward debt reduction and strengthening the balance sheet.
• Three years ago, Crescent Point scooped up 2,200 drilling locations on 422,000 acres of Williston acreage in North Dakota, Saskatchewan and Alberta, along with a Uinta Basin interest in Utah, in an all-corporate paper deal to take over Legacy Oil & Gas Inc.
• Crescent Point successfully completed its first stacked horizontal development in the Uinta Basin in 1Q2018, targeting the Castle Peak, Wasatch and Uteland Butte zones.

By the way, did anyone do the math?

422,000 acres / 2,200 drilling locations = 190 acres / drilling location.

Working backwards, 1280-acre drilling unit / 190 acres = 6.7 wells which is exactly what one would expect for the number of middle Bakken wells in Tier 1 locations in the Bakken.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Random Update, BR's CCU Audubon Well -- Corral Creek -- June 21, 2020

I last talked about this well on December 19, 2018. The well:

• 17319, 329, BR, CCU Audubon 41-27H, Corral Creek, t12/08; cum 340K 4/20; FracFocus, no re-frack; re-work, October, 2009;

For newbies: this is not an atypical well in the Bakken; it certainly is not an atypical well for BR; I find the production "ups" and "downs" entirely fascinating. This isn't supposed to happen but it happens all the time in the Bakken.

But think about this: this well was drilled back in 2008 -- is that almost twelve years ago? Wow. And it's still producing upwards of 6,000 bbls/month. 

Full production here.

This well was drilled back in 2008. Look at current production. 4,243 bbls over 23 days extrapolates to 5,534 bbls in a 30-day month:

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	23	4243	4454	1681	4239	3633	549
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	6250	6278	2620	5594	5351	166
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	6627	6653	2715	5738	5644	22
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	6389	6491	3050	5129	4880	172
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	4223	4255	3236	3483	2983	423
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	3924	3475	3349	3195	1584	1537
BAKKEN	10-2019	8	325	464	691	252	0	232
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	4	356	274	434	292	0	282
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	5	1204	1558	430	979	942	25
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	6189	6284	2752	5198	4398	726
BAKKEN	3-2019	28	3214	2824	2563	2449	508	1871
BAKKEN	2-2019	21	3336	3489	1952	2471	737	1682
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	7040	7318	3297	5619	5542	0

A Whiting Annala Well In The Sanish Trending Toward 600K Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil -- June 21, 2020

The well:

• 17776, 2,548, Whiting, Annala 12-33H, Sanish, t3/10; cum 572K 4/20;

A steady Eddy, nothing remarkable; drilled back in 2010 -- leveled off at about 2,000 bbls/month; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	2190	2216	518	2633	2573	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	2328	2339	643	2660	2598	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	2137	2128	562	2291	2233	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	2170	2181	653	2015	1953	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	1957	1914	539	1578	1516	0

 

An Old 2008 MRO With A 56-Fold Jump In Production Twelve Years Later -- So Typically Bakken -- June 21, 2020

Not sure why I didn't update this one.

Whatever.

See this post.

At that post, the well:

• 16909, 260, MRO, Lily Reiss 41-14H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 265K 4/20; 33-025-00688, re-fracked; came off line 2/19; remains off line 10/19; fracked 8/1/2019 - 8/9/2019; 5.7 million gallons water (moderate frack), 89.2% water by mass; sand, 10.3% by mass; original frack was an open hole completion in 2008; due to setback rules it was 655' FLS of section 23; MRO planned to extend this horizontal by approximately another 480 feet, approx 176' FSL of section 23, and will then plan for a 45-stage plug and perf style completion; scheduled to frack in June, 2019.Total drilling days: 34 days; for newbies -- note the number of drilling days; now, in 2019, the expectation is to drill these Bakken wells in seven (7) days. 92% in target zone; 100% in middle Bakken; no production since 3/19; remains off line 8/19; back on line 9/19;

Recent production, 23,673 over 25 days extrapolates to 28,408 bbls over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	24	8771	8801	7351	6585	5139	715
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	11897	11930	9560	9237	6758	1499
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	13265	13208	11302	10609	7910	1476
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	16891	17002	16233	13991	8179	4346
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	19056	19026	19128	14817	6691	6534
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	22977	22963	26814	17592	8001	7750
BAKKEN	10-2019	27	22070	21999	29530	13830	3059	10440
BAKKEN	9-2019	25	23673	23747	50992	17313	0	16964
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	442	401	125	378	9	178
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	503	515	71	432	42	174
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	484	504	79	439	42	182
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	547	468	79	433	0	220

Full production here.

A Nice Murex Rick Clair Well In The Stanley Oil Field -- June 21, 2020

The well:

• 16930, 1,407, Murex, Rick Clair 25-36H, a very nice well; a Monster Well; in Stanley oil field; need to follow up on this periodically, maybe annually; t3/08; cum 579K 4/20;

Full production here.

An EOG Parshall Wayzetta Well Goes Over 600K Cumulative Bbls Crude Oil -- June 21, 2020

The well:

• 16961, 1,064, EOG, Wayzetta 8-11H, Parshall; t4/08; cum 604K 4/20;

An EOG Parshall Hauge Well Hits 600K Cumulative BBls Crude Oil -- June 21, 2020

The well:

• 16965, 1,109, EOG, Hauge 1-01H, Parshall, t6/09; cum 598K 4/20;

Notes From All Over, Early Afternoon Edition -- June 21, 2020

Is this the sweet spot for the Williston Basin?

• WTI: $50
• active rig count: 40
• frack spreads: 10
• daily crude oil production: 1 million bopd

Covid-19 vaccine: an ethical path to a Covid vaccine. It appears this is not yet behind a paywall.

Author of essay: Carl Elliott. The New York Review of Books. I sped-read the essay. It seems well-balanced, considering the source and the author. There's a bit of anti-American sentiment in the article, but that's to be expected. Too much time spent on the past injustices. Okay, we get it. We're as bad as the Germans in the 1940s. Move on.

The big question: would I volunteer to a) be given an experimental Covid vaccine rushed into production for human testing; and, b) then be given an infectious dose of Covid-19 virus? Sure, why not? What could possibly go wrong?

This is referred to as a "challenge study." It's called a "challenge" study because researchers will be challenged to find any rational being willing to take this risk. LOL.

Covid-19: what is college worth? Jonathan Zimmerman in The New Review of Books. It begins:

Every fall I begin my freshman seminar on higher education by asking students to guess how many colleges in the United States admit fewer than 20 percent of their applicants. Estimates range from several hundred to a thousand.

The correct answer is forty-six.

[Turn that around: if you are a "legitimate/qualified college applicant, how many colleges in the entire US might be competitive for you? Forty-six.]

These schools represent between 1 and 2 percent of the roughly three thousand four-year higher-education institutions in the country. [At this point, I would like to know the number of four-year higher-education institutions the author would consider worthy of attending. Exhibit A: Auburn? It has a great name; a great football team. But is it a great school? If so, for what?]

But they include the colleges that I attended, as did my parents and my children; I imagine that many readers of these pages attended them as well. I would also wager that many of us went to college when we were around eighteen, lived on campus, majored in the arts and sciences rather than in preprofessional fields, and received our degrees in four years.

We’re the exception, not the rule. Of the roughly 70 percent of American high school graduates who enroll in college, 40 percent attend community college, which is almost never residential; more than a quarter of undergraduates are twenty-five or older; most major in business, the health sciences, or other preprofessional subjects; and they take an average of six years to complete college, if they finish it at all. Indeed, as David Kirp shows in The College Dropout Scandal, nearly 40 percent of undergraduates leave without a degree. Thirty-four million Americans—over a tenth of the nation’s population—have some college credits but dropped out before graduating. They are nearly twice as likely as college graduates to be unemployed and four times more likely to default on student loans.

That’s a scandal for the nation, not just for higher education. We like to imagine college as an egalitarian force, which reduces the gap between rich and poor. But over the past four decades it has mostly served to reinforce or even to widen that gap. During these years—and for the first time in American history—a college degree became the sine qua non of middle-class stability and self-sufficiency. Yet rising tuition and declining government assistance has put the degree out of reach for many Americans; others have had to borrow huge sums, saddling their families and futures with crippling debt.

The Swedish Meme Re-Surfaces -- June 21, 2020

From Breitbart today (link: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/21/former-nyt-reporter-alex-berenson-there-is-marginal-evidence-that-lockdowns-work/):

“You can’t just look at the U.S.. The U.S. is just one country. It’s impossible to get around the fact. If you look at countries that didn’t lock down at all — Japan, Sweden, and Bellarus — you really can’t distinguish the course of the epidemic from countries that locked down and countries that didn’t,” he continued.

So, let's look at Sweden ("no lock down") and Norway ("with lock down"):

From the data:

A screen shot of the full table is impossible. Go to the link to see the full table.

If you remove the top three countries, which are clearly outliers, then Sweden is ranked #4 in deaths per million people, at 500.

At the other end of the spectrum, the number of deaths per million, worldwide is 60.

Norway, pretty similar to Sweden in many respects is ranked 50th, with  a rate of 45 deaths per million people.

Now, look at the graphs of new deaths daily. Note the y axis on each graph:

Not only is Sweden's death rate 10x that of Norway, there are indications that Sweden's death rate is increasing once again. Norway's death rate is almost back to zero, although some recent increase in the number of deaths is concerning.

Sweden:

Norway:

Something tells me that the "Swedish meme" that Sweden's strategy was the best strategy will never go away.

So Typically Bakken --- A Second Jump In Production -- June 21, 2020

The well:

• 16988, 375, CLR, Colter 44-14H, Bear Creek; a huge well for CLR in Bear Creek; a big bump 9/13; a second bump in production, 3/19; see also #19616; t10/08; cum 535K 4/20;

Full production at this post.

Let's See If The Amber Renee Was A One-Hit Wonder -- June 21, 2020

Updates

January 7, 2021: reported as completed, neither FracFocus nor NDIC has frack data posted.

• 36888, drl/A, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 27K 11/20; geologist's report here;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	21568	21153	3861	13823	13823	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	10	5559	4447	2952	2054	1924	0

Original Post
June 21, 2020
status of wells and production may be updated

I don't know if anything will come of these two wells, but I'm really looking forward to the reports for two new Murex wells; they are scheduled to come off the confidential list this next week. I've followed them for many, many years. The wells on this 3-well pad:

• 36888, drl/A, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish, no data at FracFocus (January 7, 2021);
• 36887, drl/NC, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish, no data at FracFocus (January 7, 2021);
• 18408, the original Amber Renee, see below;

Other links:

• See this post from December 3, 2014: the Amber Renee, permitted for re-entry.
• See this post from August 21, 2019: permits to re-enter the Amber Renee; drill the Sophia Drake;
• Amber Renee: July 2, 2016;
• Sophia Drake, #30312, December 24, 2015;

And many more posts; if interested, google search the blog.

The "original" Amber Renee and Sophia Drake wells.

The Amber Renee was one of my favorite wells to watch from the very beginning. It was one of the first to make the "monster well" list.

Amber Renee:

• 18408, TA/1,945,  Amber Renee 25-36H, Sanish; one mile to the west of the Chandler James; t2/10; F ; 822K 8/14 -- 661K in about two years; no pump; still 9K/month 1/13; IA 1/14; still inactive 10/15; the most recent sundry form shows this well is scheduled for a "re-drill"; TA as of 3/16; cum 822K 3/16; no change since 9/18; produced from 2/10 to 12/13, just under four years; full production here;

Sophia Drake:

• 30312, PNC, Mjurex, Sophia Drake 25-36H, Sanish,  

The Sophia Drake is sited in the same section as the incredible Chandler James well:

• 17263, 3,124, Murex, Chandler James 25-36H, Sanish, t10/08; cum 1.161169 million bbls 4/20; still producing about 2,000 bbls crude oil per month

Of interest, the Murex well in the section to the south and running north to parallel the original Amber Renee for a short distance has been off line since 11/19, suggesting something was going on:

• 16839, 864, Murex, Jacob Daniel 25-36H-RE, Sanish, t1/08; cum 521K 11/19;

It is also of interest, but it probably means nothing, but several other Whiting wells to the west, in a completely different drilling unit, running perpendicular to the re-entered Murex wells (Amber Renee/Sophia Drake) and at least 500 feet (?) from the new Murex wells were also taken off line on/about 11/19.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 21, 2020

The wells:

• 37048, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, Elm Tree,
• 36888, conf, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish, 
• 36887, conf, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish, 
• 36785, conf, Kraken, Double Eagble 33-3 1H, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2020	17458	12068
3-2020	27494	2905
2-2020	29536	406
1-2020	24498	5757
12-2019	0	354

•   35666, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, Poe,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	17012	14752	17313	27999	27297	255
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	26146	23187	22440	49436	47920	1055
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	31473	27626	26566	52431	46868	5130
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	48720	43996	43146	79942	11925	67555
BAKKEN	12-2019	1	50	47	260	74	4	55
BAKKEN	11-2019	3	0	0	10392	45	0	0

• 37049, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 8-16H, Elm Tree, 
• 37050, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, Elm Tree, 
• 35673, conf, CLR, Boise 8-24H, Brooklyn,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2020	22773	50922
3-2020	37029	68960
12-2019	158	0

• 35658, conf, CLR, Addyson 10-23HSL1, Brooklyn,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2020	13669	33031
3-2020	25991	45286
2-2020	24298	48807
1-2020	10490	19356
12-2019	605	0

• 37051, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H, Elm Tree, 
• 26415, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B, -- look how old this permit is; Otter, 
• 37052, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, Elm Tree, 
• 36873, conf, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XW 1H, Alger, 
• 36791, conf, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, Lone Butte, 
• 37053, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 14-9HSL1, Elm Tree, 
• 26417, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-4B, -- look how old this permit is; Otter,
• 37202, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 10-9-4-157N-99W-LL TFH, Lone Tree Lake, 
• 36874, conf, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 XW 1H, Alger, 
• 37055, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 12-9H, Elm Tree,
• 37056, drl/drl, CLR, Angus Federal 11-9H2, Elm Tree,  
• 36875, drl/TASC, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 4H, Alger, 
• 35958, conf, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-3XH, Sanish,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	14	4587	4708	666	3211	3117	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	28	15175	15128	3108	10827	10540	23
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	22045	22319	6099	14771	14486	23
BAKKEN	1-2020	30	27139	26882	14799	16954	11897	4752
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	6059	5934	18241	3880	0	3685
BAKKEN	11-2019	16	0	0	6862	0	0	0

• 35676, SI/A, CLR, Boston 8-25H, Brooklyn,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	25	29992	30044	33764	67401	65571	1794
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	28245	28027	29279	38197	35843	2314
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	3	453	453	1683	292	0	268

• 37057, drl/drl, CLR, Angus Federal 10-9N, Elm Tree, no production data, 
• 36876, drl/TASC, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 9H, Alger, no production data, 
• 35668, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 4H, Poe, 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	17042	14777	15775	35779	35142	190
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	27953	24790	23985	28780	28091	227
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	39879	35005	30555	61056	55650	4974
BAKKEN	1-2020	26	33713	30444	30641	61976	1136	60453
BAKKEN	12-2019	15	20066	18876	24963	41697	2855	38618
BAKKEN	11-2019	1	0	0	2620	15	0	0

• 37058, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 9-9H, Elm Tree, no production data, 
• 35677, SI/A, CLR, Boston 9-25H1, Brooklyn,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	23	17889	17972	38901	39141	38066	1042
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	23511	23329	43809	56371	52914	3417
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	4	214	214	1616	32	0	0

• 35674, SI/A, CLR, Boise 0-24H1, Brooklyn,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	24	15052	15143	27101	35295	34322	939
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	22565	22391	37082	53244	49975	3227
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	4	434	434	625	32	0	0

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 21, 2020

Tuesday, June 30, 2020: 73 for the month; 218 for the quarter, 445 for the year:
37048, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, 
36888, conf, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, 
36887, conf, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, 
36785, conf, Kraken, Double Eagble 33-3 1H, 
35666, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, 

Monday, June 29, 2020: 67 for the month; 212 for the quarter, 439 for the year:
37049, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 8-16H, 

Sunday, June 28, 2020: 66 for the month; 211 for the quarter, 438 for the year:
37050, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, 

Saturday, June 27, 2020: 65 for the month; 210 for the quarter, 437 for the year:
35673, conf, CLR, Boise 8-24H, 
35658, conf, CLR, Addyson 10-23HSL1, 

Friday, June 26, 2020: 63 for the month; 208 for the quarter, 435 for the year:
37051, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H, 
26415, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B, -- look how old this permit is; 

Thursday, June 25, 2020: 61 for the month; 206 for the quarter, 433 for the year:
37052, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, 
36873, conf, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XW 1H, 
36791, conf, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, 

Wednesday, June 24, 2020: 58 for the month; 203 for the quarter, 430 for the year:
37053, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 14-9HSL1,
26417, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-4B, -- look how old this permit is;

Tuesday, June 23, 2020: 56 for the month; 201 for the quarter, 428 for the year:
37202, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 10-9-4-157N-99W-LL TFH,
36874, conf, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 XW 1H,

Monday, June 22, 2020: 54 for the month; 199 for the quarter, 426 for the year:
37055, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 12-9H,  

Sunday, June 21, 2020: 53 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 425 for the year:
37056, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 11-9H2, 
36875, conf, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 4H, 
35958, conf, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-3XH, 
35676, conf, CLR, Boston 8-25H, 

Saturday, June 20, 2020: 49 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 421 for the year:
37057, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 10-9N, Elm Tree,
36876, conf, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 9H, Alger,
35668, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 4H, Poe, 

Friday, June 19, 2020: 46 for the month; 191 for the quarter, 418 for the year:
37058, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 9-9H, Elm Tree,
35677, conf, CLR, Boston 9-25H1, Brooklyn,
35674, conf, CLR, Boise 0-24H1, Brooklyn,

Notes From All Over -- Midday Edition -- Sunday, June 21, 2020

Backwardation: came sooner than expected -- HFIR via SeekingAlpha. A reader once warned me that HFIR had a poor track record. I'm beginning to think so. From the link:

• Brent 1-2 is now in backwardation.
• This is sooner than what we had expected (month-end) and much sooner than anyone else in the market had expected.
• Backwardation will start the process of inventory rebalancing. Excess crude on water needs to be drained first, then we will see onshore inventories decline in size.
• US crude storage will start to move lower starting next week with larger draws in July and onward. Right now, the US is absorbing the excess crude from Saudi's supply surge in April.
• The oil market rebalance will be bearish for tankers and bullish for oil producers.

Geico Rock Award nomination: Julian Lee, Bloomberg Opinion -- Buyer Beware: Oil Stockpiles are Enormous. Well, duh.

From the link:

Remember negative oil prices and the fear that every storage tank on the planet would get filled to the brim? That seems a long time ago, with West Texas Intermediate crude now hitting $40 a barrel and the buildup of stockpiles poised to go into reverse. The warning sent by that trip below zero was heeded. Oil production was slashed and the crisis averted.

But if you were hoping for a quick, V-shaped recovery in oil demand, look away now.
The International Energy Agency published its latest oil market outlook last week, pushing its quarterly forecast out to the end of 2021 for the first time. It doesn’t think demand will have fully recovered by then. 

In the final quarter of next year it predicts global oil demand will still be running about 2 million barrels a day below pre-pandemic levels, and more than 4% below where it might reasonably have been expected to be in the absence of the crisis.

No free lunch: Disney+ no longer offering free one-week trials. Why? The much-anticipated Hamilton will be premiered on July 3, 2020. Wow. It's being released more than one year ahead of schedule -- no doubt to counter the revenue lost from shutdown theme parks. Wow.

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Water Polo Practice -- Texas Style

This is so cool. The Grapevine Lake is huge, and just ten minutes up the road from us. This past week, the coach took the team out to the lake to practice. They practiced in a very, very small inlet, open to the public. Out where they were playing the water was well over ten feet deep. The coach had three kayaks, one not being used, and offered it to me. I had a blast. Even took the iPhone out to film the action.

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #24 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- June 21, 2020

Updates

July 8, 2020: I was really, really wrong on this one. I thought it was a huge mistake for Dak Prescott to "hold out" during a Covid pandemic and the risk he was taking "waiting." But, here we are: Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes signs a ten-year, one-half-billion-dollar contract. This raises the floor for Dak -- one week before the July 15, 2020, signing deadline.

Original Post 

Not long ago, I suggested the most important story of the week was the "Dak Prescott" story. It took awhile, but the sporting press is starting to report what I thought might happen.

On June 6, 2020, I wrote:

Dak Prescott: on May 26, 2020, I said this was the most important story of the week. I was trolling; no one took the bait. But this is what I was thinking, reported now over at The Dallas Morning News six days ago: a season without fans could affect Dak Prescott's contract with the Cowboys "tremendously."

If by July 15, 2020, it is clear that the season will start on time with fans in the stands, no restrictions, Dak will likely get the contract he wants. But, and it's a huge "but," if it looks like the season could be delayed (unlikely) and there are questions about how to manage the stadiums (likely), the Cowboys might be holding a better hand, at least with regard to contract negotiations.

Well, today, here it. Salary caps historically keep increasing, benefiting star players like Dak Prescott. However, salary caps only increase if the total NFL profit increases. There is now talk that Covid-19 will significantly impact revenue for the 20-21 season. If it does, it will significantly impact salary caps going forward.

Dak Prescott, or better said, his agent, were betting on the come. That in the out-years, the salary cap would be much greater than it is today, and therefore, Dak should sign a "shorter" contract -- four years preferably, whereas the Cowboys were said to want a full five years.

All of a sudden, all that talk about an ever-increasing salary cap is coming under question.

And that's not all. If Dak were to test positive for Covid-19, how might that affect negotiations? From The Dallas Morning News:

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The Literature Page 

This is the book that will be my reading for the next couple of weeks. It's a long, long story how I found it, but suffice it to say it began when I got back into my Out of Africa phase.