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Saturday, June 13, 2020

OPEC Basket Price -- June 13, 2020

Link here.


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A Closer Look At The Wells Of Interest Near The Whiting Arndt Well Coming Off The Confidential List This Weekend -- June 13, 2020

On Monday, when the wells from the weekend come off the confidential list, one of the wells will be:
  • 35959, 949, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-2XH, Sanish, t1/20; cum 312K 5/22;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20201677115836
3-20201658113505
2-20202328517021
1-20202738111672
12-2019114640

With regard to that well, from north to south, the following wells of interest:
  • 21969, 347, Whiting, Arndt 13-5TFX, Sanish, t3/12; cum 275K 4/20; was off line 7/19 - 11/19; never a particularly good well; typical Bakken profile; cum 289K 5/22;
  • 35958, 917, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-3XH, Sanish, t1/20; cum 182K 5/22;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-202047083117
3-20201512810540
2-20202231914486
1-20202688211897
12-201959340

  • 19599, 1,308, Whiting, Arndt 14-5XH, Sanish, t3/11; cum 367K 4/20; was off line 6/19 -2/20; never a particularly good well; typical Bakken profile; cum 386K 5/22; turned out to be a decent well; needs to be re-fracked.;
  • 35959, 949, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-2XH, Sanish, t1/20; cum 312K 5/22;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20201677115836
3-20201658113505
2-20202328517021
1-20202738111672
12-2019114640

  • 22125, 484, Whiting, Arndt 14-5TFX, Sanish, t3/12; cum 160K 4/20; was off line 7/19 -11/19; a lousy well considering it was a Sanish well; typical Bakken profile; cum 170K 5/22;
  • 18085, 1,370, Whiting, Jones 11-8H, Sanish, t10/09; cum 397K 4/20; was off line 9/19 -2/20; not a particularly good well, but a steady Eddy; typical Bakken profile; cum 433K 5/22;
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Are You Kidding Me! -- June 13, 2020


Link here.

I wonder who called whom? LOL.

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Meanwhile ....


.... as long as we're scrolling through ZeroHedge ... this study on corona virus is an interesting read.

So, now:
  • my blood type is O-negative (apparently naturally resistant to Wuhan flu -- previously posted);
  • not bald (bald men more susceptible to Wuhan flu -- previously posted); and, now, 
  • most of us who have had the "common cold," are probably "resistant to Wuhan flu).
*********************************
PGA Live

Some still wearing their masks.

Right here in Ft Worth, TX.

Charles Schwab Challenge.

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Reading For The Week

Out of Africa, Karen Blixen / Isak Dinesen, first published in 1937.
"I had a farm in Africa, at the foot of the Ngong Hills. The Equator runs across these highlands, a hundred miles to the North, and the farm lay at an altitude of over six thousand feet."
Probably one of the best opening lines of any memoir, immortalized, of course, by Meryl Streep.

I've read this book two or three times, but each time it seems new to me. I don't know if I've ever really paid attention to the exact geographical location or the history of the indigenous people. With current events in our own country, all of a sudden, that history is more meaningful now.

Nairobi: 1.2921° S.

One degree of latitude is approximately 69 miles.

1.2921 * 69 = 89 miles.

The general area of Karen's farm is easy to locate on an atlas. The area is now a suburb southwest of Nairobi; the suburb is called ... Karen.

I'm drawn to the geography of her farm because I hope to visit my parents' vacation home on Flathead Lake later this summer. The house is on the west side of the north end of the lake. We have a beautiful view of the Mission Mountains which lay on the opposite site of the lake.

I sort of imagine the same feeling that Karen Blixen had, when she was looking toward the Ngong Hills, when I sit on the balcony and look at the Mission Mountains. 

Karen writes that the chief feature of the landscape was the air. And that's true of Flathead Lake, especially in the late spring and early fall. The air crisp, clear, and invigorating, then. It must be the elevation. Lakeside, MT, is only 3,000' in elevation compared to 6,000' for Nairobi.

From the Ngong Hills:
  • to the south, the vast plains of the great game-country that stretches all the way to Kilimanjaro;
  • to the East and North, the park-like country of the foot-hills ... toward the Kikuyu-Reserve which extends to Mount Kenya a hundred miles away;
  • to the west, the dry, moon-like landscape of the African low country; brown desert; with Mimosa trees and cacti, and giraffe and rhinoceros
The Mountain of Ngong is crowned with four peaks.

Her coffee farm:
  • twelve miles from Nairobi
  • six thousand acres of land
  • six hundred acres with coffee trees
  • six hundred coffee trees to the acre
  • coffee sacks: twelve to a ton
  • sixteen oxen to each wagon
  • two thousand acres of grassland where cattle were run
  • the rest of the farm: native forest and "traditional" vegetable farm, predominantly maize and sweet potatoes, goats and chickens, and stock pigeons
  • the "traditional" vegetable farm managed by the shambas, or squatters as the colonists called them;
  • Karen says the shambas would have seen themselves as "something different" than squatters
I think she first mentions the Kikuyu -- the Kikuyu shambas -- on page ten. The wiki entry is here.

When she first arrived, there were no cars and they rode to Nairobi in a cart pulled by six mules.

And I will quit here. As I read her description of Nairobi I am reminded of Graham Greene's masterpiece, The Heart of the Matter, though that story is from the west coast of Africa. That takes me back to 2004 or thereabouts when I was reading every spare moment I had. I had worked myself up from the classics to the 17th and 18th century British women authors, and then to the 19th and 20th century British writers.

If there has been any one negative aspect to blogging it is this: blogging has cost me much lost time that I would have given to reading had I not blogged. It's a trade-off.
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The Sweet Spot -- Reason #6 Why I Love to Blog -- A Reader Provides Assessment Of Crude Oil Production In The US -- June 13, 2020

A reader provided this assessment regarding the decline in crude oil production in the US:
No surprise with the decline in production of oil in USA.
-Shale wells decline rate of 6-8% per month.
-Rig count down for horizontal rig count down by 70+ percent
-Horizontal wells deplete ~70% on first year on average.
-Some wells shut in due to low spot price. Generally transport costs are fixed by pipeline increasing breakeven price to oil producer.
-Bankers will not be willing to loan $$$ to oil production companies unless you see solid $50+ oil prices.
-Shale oil production is more than 50% of oil production in USA.
-Large and small oil are cutting spending for shale, but keeping the long term projects going. One can drill and complete a shale well in months, not years.

Oil in storage is no surprise.
-Looking at EIA data, most of oil in storage increase is on Gulf Coast PADD 3. Other areas are even to down. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php#menu
-IMHO the contango purchased oil is being delivered to California and Gulf coast.
-Tanker rates have decreased for both spot and long term charters indicating that the contango oil is being delivered.

IMHO price of crude should be in the $50s in a few months due to contango deliveries and continued reduction of oil production due to drilling downturn. Before shale oil a legacy oil will drilled vertically would typically decline 10-15% per year, unlike 70% for a shale well.
I replied that I had opined on the blog that the "sweet spot" for WTI is $50. So let's see if I can find that. Here's one post, dated October 30, 2016:


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The Sweet Spot
October 30, 2016

For several months now I have opined a number of times on the blog that for the US, the sweet spot for the price of oil is $46 to $52 or something like that, maybe $48 to $56, somewhere in there.

So, now, this evening over at CNBC, "why an analyst thinks we've just entered the 'sweet spot' for oil prices."

I haven't read the article. So, now I can read it. And not much there, except this:
"There's probably a sweet spot between $50 and $55, but I think we're setting ourselves up for some sort of a disappointment at the OPEC meeting," explained Tom Kloza on CNBC. "I think the language is probably going to be thoroughly bullish. They'll pay lip service to some sort of a freeze."
$50 to $55 is certainly not going to help Saudi Arabia much. So, we'll see.

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Wow, Wow, Wow
June 13, 2020

That was posted back on Halloween, 2016 -- nothing seems to have changed in four years. LOL. Maybe we'll be lucky to see $50-oil this Halloween (2020). 
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A Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust Well Goes Over 500K Crude Oil Cumulative -- June 13, 2002

The well:
  • 27055, 1,306, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28D-21-1HS, 4 sections, Charlson, middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.1 million lbs, t9/14; cum 509K 4/20; jump in production 12/18;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20201916971882558528251430
BAKKEN3-202031308231031084928890720
BAKKEN2-2020292834279097576026912488
BAKKEN1-2020313122319794269776080681
BAKKEN12-201931329333031088917089540
BAKKEN11-201924294229531347924390850
BAKKEN10-20193159615926219218552183279
BAKKEN9-2019306748671923301822717602418
BAKKEN8-2019317163718227111488714531140
BAKKEN7-201931643465042253678346511924
BAKKEN6-20193048484744221211506112990
BAKKEN5-20193092989333232524763245620
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An Equinor Cheryl Well To Hit 500K Crude Oil Cumulative This Summer -- June 13, 2020

The well:
  • 22808, 4,439, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 4H, t2/13; cum 498K 4/20; off-line 2/18 but back on-line 3/18; off line again, but then back on line 11/18; cum 555K 11/23;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20201515261417542943903957385
BAKKEN3-2020191182143535704405431423
BAKKEN2-20202936463806745013190130722
BAKKEN1-20203142824148865914705145810
BAKKEN12-20193155125498959116670165460
BAKKEN11-20193059836004832017279171590
BAKKEN10-201931598059331048415488153631
BAKKEN9-201930541056651086513185130650
BAKKEN8-201931467342401282711734116100
BAKKEN7-201931462447661100812025119090
BAKKEN6-20193042524137844912242121220
BAKKEN5-201931526255695415160411589918
BAKKEN4-2019306493690046381904518803122
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An Oasis Rolfson Well To Hit 500K Crude Oil Cumulative This Summer -- June 13, 2020

The well:
  • 31486, 1,752, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 14-17 11BX, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 496K 4/20;
Recent production, typical Bakken profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030257925853425219872122899
BAKKEN3-2020312548256136892388322483718
BAKKEN2-20202924292432285220796189301228
BAKKEN1-20203130433039352426546240151849
BAKKEN12-20193135543560362427514247682064
BAKKEN11-2019303352331535022779626587549
BAKKEN10-20193137353789389926546233182546
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Emily -- June 13, 2020

If you want the link, you will have to google it. It shouldn't be too hard to find.

If you find the article, it begins:
America has now deployed its first female stealth fighter pilot into combat, the Air Force announced.

Capt. Emily Thompson, call sign “Banzai,” made headlines after she became the first female to fly the F-35A Lightning II into combat. On June 9, the Air Force released a statement announcing that Thompson had deployed but did not specify when or where. The statement also noted that Thompson had an all-female maintenance crew to launch her historic flight.

Although she initially wanted to be an engineer, once she got the chance to fly a plane instead of just repair it, she changed course. She trained on F-16 Fighting Falcons during her college training, then flew F-16s for a year and a half before transferring to the F-35A model.

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For Arianna, Who Wants To Be A Marine Biologist

From Watts Up With That? Ocean deepening is here!
  • oceans are at their deepest in 250 million years
  • they have hardly been deeper in the last 400 million years than now
The lede:
According to their reconstruction (and others), 100 million years ago, during the middle of the Cretaceous Period, the oceans were about 250 meters shallower than they are today *and* sea level was about 250 meters higher than it is today. Process that for a moment…
The oceans were 250 meters shallower, but the water level was 250 meters higher than it is today. This was due to the geometry and distribution of the ocean basins. While advancing and retreating ice sheets may have played a role in Cretaceous marine transgressions and regressions, the Cretaceous sea level paradox was a tectonic feature and a boon to humanity.
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Hornsea: Lies, Lies, And More Lies -- Continued -- June 13, 2020

Have I ever blogged about Hornsea? Yup. From August 16, 2019: lies, lies, and more lies. LOL. So, now an update, from Not A Lot Of People Know That: BBC brags about Hornsea Wind Farm -- but forgets to mention the cost. Lies, lies, and more lies. From the BBC.
In his puff piece for renewable energy today, the BBC’s Justin Rowlatt noted that:

Now the UK has the biggest offshore wind industry in the world, as well as the largest single wind farm, completed off the coast of Yorkshire last year.

Nothing could sum up the moronic obsession with renewable energy better than this statement. There is in fact a good reason why we have the biggest offshore wind industry – we are the only country daft enough to pay the exorbitant bill for it.

The largest wind farm, of course, is Hornsea, a 1200MW project. It may be the biggest, but it also happens to be one of the most expensive sources of electricity in the world.

The contract price for Hornsea is £162.47/MWh, which under CfD is a guaranteed price, which will be index linked for 15 years. In short, a licence to print money.

The current market price for electricity is below £20/MWh, so Hornsea is getting eight times what it would get if it had to trade in the market.
And then this:
Hornsea, by the way, is joint owned by Oersted (formerly DONG) and Global Infrastructure Partners LLP, a global wealth fund. I find it hard to understand how sending hundreds of millions of pounds every year to either of those companies can possibly benefit the UK economy.
Wiki entry here.

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Whatever Happened to Fukushima?
Published 16 Hours Ago By The Economist

From The Economist: blocked by a paywall, but you can see the entire article here. Archived here.
The hoped-for transformation [to renewable energy], however, has been “slow and almost invisible”, Mr Yamada laments.
Renewable generation has grown from 10% of the power supply in 2010 to 17% in 2018, almost half of which comes from old hydropower schemes.
Most nuclear plants, which provided more than a quarter of the country’s power before the disaster, have been shut down, at least for the time being.
But for the most part they have been replaced not by wind turbines and solar panels but by power stations that burn coal and natural gas. The current government wants nuclear plants to provide at least 20% of electricity by 2030. It also wants coal’s share of generation to grow, and has approved plans to build 22 new coal-fired plants over the next five years. The target for renewables, by contrast, is 22-24%, below the current global average, and far lower than in many European countries.

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Might We See Property Values In Flathead Lake Area Surge As Result Of Pandemic -- Social Distancing To Hit The Real Estate Market -- June 13, 2020


The perfect storm:
  • really, really cheap money
  • pandemic fears: people fleeing urban centers
  • autonomous zones will add to urban flight
  • on-line shopping replaces need to go downtown
  • working from home will only increase
  • colleges, universities: on line
Exhibit A, from Bloomberg:
Across the San Francisco Bay area -- home to some of America’s earliest and strictest shelter-in-place rules -- demand for real estate is soaring in outer suburbs and wealthy havens known for their gorgeous landscapes. From affluent Marin County to Napa wine country and south to Monterey’s Carmel Valley, brokers say the coronavirus outbreak is leading to a surge of interest from homebuyers looking to spread out.
“I’ve never seen the demand higher for Marin County real estate than when Covid-19 hit,” said Josh Burns, an agent with Sotheby’s International who has been in the business for about 20 years.
Like New York, where Manhattanites fleeing the city have fueled newfound interest in tony suburbs, San Francisco is flush with people with the means to upgrade to more spacious areas. The tech companies that drive the region’s economy are also signaling a long-term acceptance of remote work, raising the prospect that there’s little need to live close to offices.
When one looks at downtown urban centers, really, why are they even needed any more?
  • financial centers and banking? it's pretty much all on-line now
  • theaters: except for a few cities, maybe NY, SF, and Chicago, theaters are not a big draw any more; all have been closed down due to pandemic; unlikely to recover any time soon
  • museums: ditto
  • public libraries: ditto
  • city hall: turned into autonomous zones 
One year ago, "the next housing bubble could be in these states," link here:
  • Utah
  • Washington
  • Idaho
  • New Mexico
  • Wyoming
  • Montana 
  • Colorado
  • Texas
  • Oregon
  • Tennessee
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Alexa

Why can't you turn on my television?

Wow, TCM was awesome last night. Critics' choice: LGBTQ-themed. Who wudda guessed?

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Social Distancing No Longer "A Thing"

We have been notified by "neighborhood watch" that there will be a protest march in our neighborhood this afternoon beginning at 1:00 p.m. A parade of 200 is expected. Apparently social distancing is no longer a "thing."

I'm sure they will all be wearing masks. LOL. Despite the fact that there is little evidence Wuhan flu is a risk when one is out and about. LOL.

I'm staying in bed all day. YouTube music. TCM. Blogging. No Uber-granddaughter-driving responsibilities today.

TCM: wow -- Petrified Forest  followed by North By Northwest early this afternoon. 

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Target

Sophia had a special request yesterday; necessitated a visit to local Target store a few blocks from our house. Parking lot absolutely full. Picked up our item; self-check-out. In/out, five minutes. I noted that Target has some of the best prices on grocery items -- especially compared to our local grocery stores. I'm talking significant price-savings.

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Amazon

Amazing.

Apparently there was a local/regional shortage of Ponzu sauce last week in some areas of the country. My wife and younger daughter were unable to find Ponzu in Portland, OR. When I heard that last week, I immediately ordered two bottles of Ponzu sauce to be delivered to their house. Ordered on Sunday, it was to arrive Thursday. Unusual for it to take so long, but not unexpected during the pandemic.
Wednesday, I received a notice that the shipment was canceled due to shipping problems. I was refunded my $10.38. I immediately re-ordered. Slightly after midnight early Friday morning (late, late, late Thursday night, I simply clicked on past Amazon orders and re-ordered the identical item). The Ponzu sauce -- both bottles --arrived in perfect condition Friday afternoon.
We don't know reason for "original" shipping problem but I bet at least one bottle broke in transit.
 ***********************************
Psycho Killer

Ms Weymouth will be 70 years old this fall.

In this video, one month before her 60th birthday.

Psycho Killer, Tina Weymouth

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Re-Posting -- From Geoff Simon's Top ND Stories -- June 13, 2020

Normally I don't do this, but there are several milestones worth noting this week:
  • April oil production down 15%; biggest drop in 50 years of record-keeping
  • Almost $10 million awarded for airport grants; includes Watford City, Dickinson;
  • Four Bears Bridge construction beginning;
  • State Avenue railroad bridge construction in Dickinson set to begin;
  • Illinois regulators reject bid to delay decision on DAPL
  • Long X Bridge south of Watford City to be open by November, 2020
  • Dickinson airport boardings gradually increase; runway construction on schedule
  • In New England, wind farms are like "sitting landfills," no one wants them 
I post a select few stories from Geoff Simon's list every week.
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Week 24: June 7, 2020 -- June 13, 2020

The week's best graphic:
Most fascinating bit of trivia all year:
Most under-reported story:
Smallest story with biggest headline:
Top story of the week:
Top international non-energy story:


 Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • April oil production down 15%; biggest drop in 50 years of record-keeping
  • Almost $10 million awarded for airport grants; includes Watford City, Dickinson;
  • Four Bears Bridge construction beginning;
  • State Avenue railroad bridge construction in Dickinson set to begin;
  • Illinois regulators reject bid to delay decision on DAPL
  • Long X Bridge south of Watford City to be open by November, 2020
  • Dickinson airport boardings gradually increase; runway construction on schedule
  • In New England, wind farms are like "sitting landfills," no one wants them
Operators:
Operations:
Advantaged oil:

500K oil:
Commentary:
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Atmospheric CO2 -- May, 2020, Data

Link here.



May, 2018: 411.31. Link here.
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Around The Blogosphere -- So Much Better Than The NY Times -- June 13, 2020

So, compared to The New York Times, so how much time do you spend on other blogs? I don't think I've read a NYT article in months. 

Watts Up With That?  Stories that caught my interest today --
  • EU agrees to weaken climate change rules for aviation
    • EU rubber stamped airline industry proposals for deferred climate action
  • protests reveal little threat of Wuhan flu in outside air
    • why is Seattle restricting park access?
  • the brain uses minimum effort to look for key information in text: see below
  • why oceans really aren't "acidifying"
    • the term is being abused by science and media [I'm shocked! Shocked!]
  • study: coral reef islands grow with rising sea level
  • white surface Tesla crash in Taiwan
  • Lancet, New England Journal retract Covid-9 studies
    • including one that raised concerns about malaria drugs
  • never mind ... maybe hydroxychloroquine not so bad after all 
  • another Canadian polar bear sub-population is increasing
Of all the recent articles linked over at Watts Up With That, I found this one most interesting: the brain uses minimum effort to look for key information in text. Was a study really needed? Common sense would explain that. Whatever.

Link here. This goes a long way explaining much of what we all seem to experience when reading:
A recently completed study indicates that the human brain avoids taking unnecessary effort. When a person is reading, she strives to gain as much information as possible by dedicating as little of her cognitive capacity as possible to the processing.
According to the study, the brain is processing information by taking into account the relative importance of the content that is being read. When the brain is interpreting the meaning of the words being read, it attempts to allocate resources to interpreting the words that provide as much information as possible on the content of the text.
Previous studies have shown that word length and frequency, as well as syntactic and semantic errors included in sentences in sentences affect brain activity to language.
In the recently published study, the perspective was expanded to the level above individual sentences, the discourse level.
[The discourse level] was studied using six-sentence paragraphs. At this level, the relationship between words becomes increasingly complex, and the significance of context in interpreting individual words is increased. On the discourse level, very little about information processing by the brain has been known so far.
Among so many things, this might explain:
  • why when I read, I tend to skip over new words; I have to make a conscious effort to look for new words
  • why Microsoft PowerPoint Presentations are so effective (at least based on their popularity)
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From Power Lines Weekend Edition 

My two favorite, and it was very, very hard today to decide. Link here.



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