The well:
- 31486, 1,752, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 14-17 11BX, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 496K 4/20;
Recent production, typical Bakken profile:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 2579 | 2585 | 3425 | 21987 | 21228 | 99 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 31 | 2548 | 2561 | 3689 | 23883 | 22483 | 718 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 29 | 2429 | 2432 | 2852 | 20796 | 18930 | 1228 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 31 | 3043 | 3039 | 3524 | 26546 | 24015 | 1849 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 31 | 3554 | 3560 | 3624 | 27514 | 24768 | 2064 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 30 | 3352 | 3315 | 3502 | 27796 | 26587 | 549 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 31 | 3735 | 3789 | 3899 | 26546 | 23318 | 2546 |
No surprise with the decline in production of oil in USA.
ReplyDelete-Shale wells decline rate of 6-8% per month.
-Rig count down for horizontal rig count down by 70+ percent
-Horizontal wells deplete ~70% on first year on average.
-Some wells shut in due to low spot price. Generally transport costs are fixed by pipeline increasing breakeven price to oil producer.
-Bankers will not be willing to loan $$$ to oil production companies unless you see solid $50+ oil prices.
-Shale oil production is more than 50% of oil production in USA.
-Large and small oil are cutting spending for shale, but keeping the long term projects going. One can drill and complete a shale well in months, not years.
Oil in storage is no surprise.
-Looking at EIA data, most of oil in storage increase is on Gulf Coast PADD 3. Other areas are even to down. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php#menu
-IMHO the contango purchased oil is being delivered to California and Gulf coast.
-Tanker rates have decreased for both spot and long term charters indicating that the contango oil is being delivered.
IMHO price of crude should be in the $50s in a few months due to contango deliveries and continued reduction of oil production due to drilling downturn. Before shale oil a legacy oil will drilled vertically would typically decline 10-15% per year, unlike 70% for a shale well.
Looks about right.
DeleteI remember a long time ago, on the blog, I opined that $50/bbl seems to be the sweet spot -- good enough for shale operators; okay for consumers (price of gasoline); and not particularly helpful to the Saudis.