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Saturday, April 25, 2020

My First Question: So What? -- April 25, 2020

From twitter:

Two comments:
  • the numbers may be bogus, but the trend / optic is accurate -- Saudi emptied its on-shore storage in March / April, 2020
  • this is global storage; most of it may be in Saudi Arabia, but the kingdom has storage including but not limited to throughout the Middle East, Rotterdam, and the US
The first question is "so what?"

The next question is "why" did they empty their on-shore storage in the manner that they did?

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Tomorrow Night

Tomorrow Night, Jennifer Warnes

Vegetative Or Dead: Kim Jong Un -- April 25, 2020

Time Line

April 26, 2020, morning: US president Trump and South Korean presidential aide both suggest Kim is alive; the SK presidential aide, saying "alive and well." US intelligence agency reporting no unusual military movements in North Korea which they would expect;

April 26, 2020, 10:10 a.m. CT: KPOK radio in Bowman just reported Rocket Man is DEAD. 10.10 AM cst8:59 p.m.

April 25, 2020: US senator Lindsey Graham says he would be surprised if KJU not dead or incapacitated. Washington Examiner. One would think Graham would have coordinated with Trump before talking.

London Mirror: around 9:00 p.m. Central Time, Saturday, April 25, 2020 -- botched heart surgery.

4:04 p.m. CT, April 25, 2020. meet Kim Yo Jong, KJU's sister and possible successor. Forbes.

Tweet: TMZ broke news late afternoon, Central Time, Saturday, April 25, 2020.

New York Post, Fox News: early afternoon, Central Time, Saturday, April 25, 2020. Reports.

New Gas Processing Plant Proposed Near Williston -- April 25, 2020

Link at Williston Herald:
  • B. Sanderson Gas Processing Plant, Williams County, siting application, PSC hearing, April 24, 2020;
  • OE2 North proposing to build a 250 million cfpd gas processing plant
  • $150 million project
  • 39 acres of a 143-acre parcel owned by OE2
  • if construction begins by mid-April, could be completed by December 15, 2020;
  • 15 miles west of Williston, near the Montana border with Roosevelt and Richland counties
  • will serve XTO production in Williams County
  • will help reduce flaring in that area by as much as 25,000 tons/year

US Delays Oil Pipeline Approvals After Environmental Ruling -- April 25, 2020

Link here.
BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has suspended a nationwide program used to approve oil and gas pipelines, power lines and other utility work, spurred by a court ruling that industry representatives warn could slow or halt numerous infrastructure projects over environmental concerns.
The directive from Army Corps headquarters, detailed in emails obtained by The Associated Press, comes after a federal court last week threw out a blanket permit that companies and public utilities have used for decades to build projects across streams and wetlands.
The Trump administration is expected to challenge the ruling in coming days. For now, officials have put on hold about 360 pending notifications to entities approving their use of the permit, Army Corps spokesman Doug Garman said Thursday.
The agency did not provide further details on types of projects or their locations.
Pipeline and electric utility industry representatives said the effects could be widespread if the suspension lasts, affecting both construction and maintenance on potentially thousands of projects. That includes major pipelines like TC Energy’s Keystone XL crude oil line from Canada to the U.S. Midwest, the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline in Virginia and power lines from wind turbines and generating stations in many parts of the U.S.
“The economic consequences to individual projects are hard to overstate,” said Ben Cowan, a Houston-based attorney with Locke Lord LLP who represents pipeline and wind energy companies. “It could be fatal to a number of projects under construction if they are forced to stop work for an extended period in order to obtain individual permits.”
Wow, are "we" nuts or what? Wow.

Week 17: April 19, 2020 -- April 25, 2020

Top energy story of the week:
Favorite video:

Best news all week:
Biggest non-story of the entire week:

Top international story of the entire week:
Top international non-energy story:
  • Coronavirus
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
  • Coronavirus
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories (does not include stories posted elsewhere on this page):
Operations:
Operators:
  • CLR to suspend Bakken production;
Advantaged oil:
Fracking:

Bakken economy:
Commentary:

The BR Lassen Wells In Blue Buttes -- April 25, 2020

The BR Lassen wells are incredible. This is not surprising. BR generally reports great wells. The Lassen wells came off the confidential list almost three years ago (July, 2017) but went to DUC status, and I lost track of them.

But I caught up with them today.

This post will cover the two newest Lassen pads. The two older wells, sited just a bit to the east, were updated elsewhere.
  • 32747, 547, BR, Lassen 5-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 371K 2/20;
  • 32746, 160, BR, Lassen 4-1-26MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 400K 2/20;

  • 32543, 310, BR, Lassen 1-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 365K 2/20;
  • 32544, 284, BR, Lassen 3-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 331K 2/20;
  • 32445, 224, BR, Lassen 4-1-26MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 408K 2/20;
Production for three of the wells shown below.

Production profile for 32746:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20202989028869269721956218450
BAKKEN1-20201550754994207510111100410
BAKKEN12-2019820222204529360535790
BAKKEN11-20193090249159424215405140661225
BAKKEN10-20193099321014147262069620129384
BAKKEN9-2019309033890444101853118072230
BAKKEN8-20192890099077402517013168410
BAKKEN7-201931122421197113231474214326267
BAKKEN6-2019133265309038434023225126
BAKKEN5-2019614851608684137213567
BAKKEN4-20192552565160252148794685174
BAKKEN3-201925565255901458937831136251
BAKKEN2-20194857110738949251477791423
BAKKEN1-2019318209811036287323726356
BAKKEN12-201831783778233015756375580
BAKKEN11-201830645462783153339433900
BAKKEN10-201823193253921210
BAKKEN9-20181384677192126412620
BAKKEN8-2018311697816961738943398433780
BAKKEN7-2018311881919008657736417364020
BAKKEN6-2018302532625146801959116590950
BAKKEN5-2018312641326656856352106520840
BAKKEN4-2018302709926868813541619415980
BAKKEN3-20182633468332061087343194431800
BAKKEN2-20182847494910402510611106040
BAKKEN1-2018313248132531843864010639820
BAKKEN12-20172930837308012248448852488310
BAKKEN11-20172424741247822171938111380940
BAKKEN10-2017312685426740997636512364970
BAKKEN9-201729246862531477102565825041602
BAKKEN8-20173124661686857231122910
BAKKEN7-2017110002700

Production profile for 32747:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020295658572730541789016962842
BAKKEN1-20203163706408255018134180090
BAKKEN12-20193169866933299622912227440
BAKKEN11-20193061256216245813273118371340
BAKKEN10-2019306739688227391759116941496
BAKKEN9-2019306131608825551575715209355
BAKKEN8-2019317003701429681665216378107
BAKKEN7-20193185438824121114372129111327
BAKKEN6-20193082167956140214762122822286
BAKKEN5-2019317003688634661189410852972
BAKKEN4-2019306958687633931093110610275
BAKKEN3-201931981910204204415656117113894
BAKKEN2-20192810358102074264489348880
BAKKEN1-2019311169811529555417069170590
BAKKEN12-2018311009510092425113212132030
BAKKEN11-201830882786176141689368840
BAKKEN10-2018814861443338845580264
BAKKEN9-2018003620000
BAKKEN8-2018311995319896733551842518190
BAKKEN7-2018311973019920766439730397140
BAKKEN6-20183026093258781108454812547930
BAKKEN5-20183124626247861154545868458490
BAKKEN4-20183021939217481191134585345680
BAKKEN3-20182626688265652124836405363930
BAKKEN2-20182811895119236697634663420
BAKKEN1-20183123768236971486319736197270
BAKKEN12-20173197439701689616855168480
BAKKEN11-20172645124735255613694136880
BAKKEN10-20173126606264891141736512364970
BAKKEN9-201729239722460579662501524398602
BAKKEN8-20173132712491857281327890
BAKKEN7-20170000000

Production profile for 32445:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020245188526223171250212258182
BAKKEN1-20203162386260335412144107681301
BAKKEN12-20193163506311306617148120025057
BAKKEN11-2019305881588135311064988051773
BAKKEN10-2019164210406122101523694115739
BAKKEN9-201911882931431921900
BAKKEN8-201912228224061332887545094320
BAKKEN7-2019315585572687021636144837002
BAKKEN6-2019234825495094217661111656320
BAKKEN5-20193190979001507240598382082144
BAKKEN4-2019301048310311573647925477170
BAKKEN3-2019311224912469330143670390174483
BAKKEN2-201928825082993675545954530
BAKKEN1-2019311399213854637546373463470
BAKKEN12-2018311460814649447134528345050
BAKKEN11-2018301437014404528317959179360
BAKKEN10-201831154671548753481456413578956
BAKKEN9-2018241173111567638121020209910
BAKKEN8-20183116586166331134431250312360
BAKKEN7-20183122508225631166246036460170
BAKKEN6-2018302125621090796339155391410
BAKKEN5-2018312084320997978136546365310
BAKKEN4-2018301951919361780528040280260
BAKKEN3-20182625011249311131473692736680
BAKKEN2-2018281451614510567262226621840
BAKKEN1-2018312263722697833241906418880
BAKKEN12-2017312445524434311135120351050
BAKKEN11-2017252046820543308628302282900
BAKKEN10-20173126344262231033636512364970
BAKKEN9-201730227582261877552565825041602
BAKKEN8-201716493493191155615430

Jump In Production -- BR's Lassen Three Forks Well In Blue Buttes -- April 25, 2020

The well:
  • 24136, 2,894, BR, Lassen 41-26TFH, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 284K 12/19; offline 1/20; remains off line 2/20; Hubbert's theory disproved once again; NDIC does not show a re-frack; fracked 3/13, 30 stages; 3.6 million lbs (a very small frack); for newbies -- back in 2013, operators were drilling wells with EURs around 350,000 bbls of crude oil; 
  • 18025, the sister well did not show a similar bump in production; 
  • the newer Lassen wells are tracked here;
Production when well first drilled back in early 2013:
BAKKEN9-2013933493185990467529311744
BAKKEN8-2013311184611841326022756205582198
BAKKEN7-2013828472784450392322961627
BAKKEN6-201330156071554848852798827712275
BAKKEN5-201331109281073601459685866010
BAKKEN4-201330000000
BAKKEN3-20134315731570100

Then, five years later:
BAKKEN7-201831564955132993660766070
BAKKEN6-20189147715691301221022100
BAKKEN5-201831670766134104642364230
BAKKEN4-2018301409614109700011926119260
BAKKEN3-201812748575332056826282600
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-2018141615174039613761097277
BAKKEN12-20172518751821672459522852306
BAKKEN11-201730273725681423320732030

Most recently:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020146460000
BAKKEN1-202064125121788868850
BAKKEN12-20193139574015164162105966240
BAKKEN11-201930403039991908807280680
BAKKEN10-201931448744602172731250732239

Notes From All Over, The Early Saturday Morning Edition -- April 25, 2020

Unfinished business: unless I'm missing it, I don't see the one active rig in CLR's Long Creek Unit any more. There was still work to be done, but this past week, CLR announced it was shutting down production in the Bakken due to prices for WTI going negative.

OMG! I just came back from our neighborhood grocery store to pick up a breakfast item. I rode my bike -- without wearing a mask. I noted there were three types of shoppers braving Wuhan flu: those who were wearing masks (they were in the majority); those who not wearing masks (real risk-takers); and those who wore masks on their chin with mouth and nose uncovered. But OMG! I have never seen this store so well stocked. Aisles were overflowing; every shelf full, including toilet paper and paper towels. Coffins full of eggs. And $1.49/dozen.

Weather: cooler than I expected. Supposed to be a warm day. And the humidity and the breeze made it feel cooler than it really was. Quite cloudy but not overcast.

EV charging points in the US: flat, since 2018 -- S&P Global Platts  --


Reminder: having trouble sending large files or movies via Yahoo!Mail or gmail? FireFox Sends has the solution and it's pretty clever. It's been out there for years (?) and it still works.

Ecdysis: word for the day.

Bonus word for the day: epiphany. This was a tough one for me. No, not epiphany, the root word, the Greek word, phanero. The latter means to reveal itself; to bring to light; to manifest itself. I was unable to think of an English word that derived from the Greek phanero. But a google search was revealing -- the English word "epiphany" derives from phanero. Can't wait to share with Arianna.
Interestingly, "fantastic" can be traced back to phanero --
Late Middle English (in the sense ‘unreal’): from Old French fantastique, via medieval Latin from Greek phantastikos, from phantazein ‘make visible’, phantazesthai ‘have visions, imagine’, from phantos ‘visible’ (related to phainein ‘to show’). From the 16th to the 19th centuries the Latinized spelling phantastic was also used. So, it turns out ...
and now any number of possibilities ...
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Unrelated

Ain't No Cure For Love, Jennifer Warnes, a Leonard Cohen song

Despite Rising Seas, Bill Gates Buy Beachfront Property; The Real Reason The Ocean Is Rising -- April 25, 2020

From What's Up With That.

This is a re-posting of an earlier story, but a different source, I believe. Maybe not. Whatever.

I would not have re-posted it except for the fact that it included a link to a very old article -- alluding to my measurements of the rising seas using markers on popsickle sticks to measure the rising seas. Remember that? Wow, that was a long, long time ago.

So, here's the link to that old story about the rising oceans, measured in millimeters.

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The Real Reason The Pacific Ocean Is Rising Along The California Coast

The Pacific Ocean along the California coast is rising due to displacement by 40 million bbls of Saudi Arabian oil in ULCCs and VLCCs sitting there with no place to go.

Alarmed by the rising seas, and the impact it might have on homes owned by Bill Gates, et al, President Trump is considering banning Saudi Arabian oil from entering the US.

Saudi Arabia is now considering re-routing those tankers.

I can't make this stuff up. From Aljazeera:
Saudi Arabia is considering rerouting millions of barrels of oil on board tankers sailing to the United States if President Donald Trump decides to block imports of crude from the kingdom, shipping and trade sources have told Reuters news agency.
Some 40 million barrels of Saudi oil are on their way to the US and due to arrive in the coming weeks, piling more pressure on markets already struggling to absorb a glut of stocks, according to shipping data and sources.
See photos of those ships off shore California at this post

Love him, or hate him, President Trump keeps his eye(s) on the ball.

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Better Late Than Never -- April 25, 2020

With operators shutting down in the Bakken, it looks like I will be able to catch up. LOL.

Back on March 5, 2017, I said we would get back to these three wells. I'm finally catching up. LOL.

See this post.

Time For A Re-Frack; The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- April 25, 2020

The well:
  • 18047, 1,620, BR, Teton 21-3H, Johnson Corner, t9/10; cum 278K 2/29;
At time of original frack back in early 2011:
BAKKEN4-201123630062801084806353122751
BAKKEN3-201113740971711352848461322352
BAKKEN2-201161204711721778866898
BAKKEN1-2011103434336396951714412733
BAKKEN12-2010311450214350377324880605718746
BAKKEN11-201010560956181288625906235
BAKKEN10-20100000000
BAKKEN9-201014300028782661683306833

Then four years later:
BAKKEN12-2015249396969037871364513443200
BAKKEN11-201530137581420454662083620675157
BAKKEN10-2015311403613805447619071190710
BAKKEN9-2015301371913628312415520127322788
BAKKEN8-2015311373413775209316724121084616
BAKKEN7-201531871483863234898951533836
BAKKEN6-201511192017961809159215920
BAKKEN5-20156306240453113101

Time for a re-frack:
BAKKEN2-20202952291148818961684140
BAKKEN1-20203188270353921151922116
BAKKEN12-2019311108926517210120240
BAKKEN11-2019308759265311815170041

Full production at this post.