Idle Rambling On A Friday Night -- November 2, 2018

From SeekingAlpha on CLR. And that is taken from a Platts article.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Now, back to the linked article. Summary:

• Continental Resources doubles its estimate for oil recovery from North Dakota's Bakken shale, claiming 30B-40B barrels of the 250B barrels of oil in place will be recovered instead of the 20B barrels it estimated in 2011
• "With today's completion technology we are recovering 15% and potentially 20% of the oil in place on a primary basis," CLR President Jack Stark said during today's earnings conference call, "substantially higher than the recoveries that we thought possible back in 2011."
• "There's a lot more oil to come out of the Bakken," said Chairman and CEO Harold Hamm.
• Using a North Dakota industry estimate that ~50K potential wells remain to be drilled in the Bakken, Stark said each well would have to produce 570K barrels to reach CLR's new estimates for recoverable oil - "clearly a reasonable expectation for Bakken wells on average," according to Stark.
• North Dakota oil production averaged a record 1.29M bbl/day in August, and CLR says its output accounted for 12% of that production.
• Earlier: Continental Resources +2.5% as Bakken production reaches quarterly record (October 29, 2018) 

This is a keeper. Read those stats again.

OOIP: CLR is apparently sticking with 250 billions of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Bakken; that's a far cry from a trillion-bbl reservoir suggested at one time; but, I'm sticking with the Bakken being a 500-bbl OOIP reservoir, and wouldn't bet against a trillion bbls, but I'm inappropriate exuberant about the Bakken.

Primary production, defintion: in the early days of the Bakken, the consensus -- tight oil was called "tight" for a reason; drillers would only be able to recover 1 - 3% of OOIP in primary production. Primary production is all that production before enhanced recovery is required, such as water flooding and/or CO2 injection. Oil recovered after work-overs; re-fracks; etc, is still considered primary production. Primary production can go on for decades.

Primary production, Whiting, the early days: in the early days of the Bakken, the consensus was that drillers would get only 1 -3% of the OOIP by primary production. This blog was the first, as far as I am aware, that suggested drillers were getting as much as 4 - 6% even when pundits were still talking about 1 - 3%. Then Whiting, either intentionally or by mistake, mentioned in one of their conference calls that they were either already getting upwards of 12% or expected to reach that threshold before it was all over. That was a long, long time ago, and my memory may be faulty, but I vaguely recall something along that line.

Primary production, CLR, now: CLR says that "we are now recovering 15% of the OOIP and Harold Hamm thinks they could eventually get to 20%. Let's do the math:

• a EUR-type curve of 1 million bbls
• 15% of what = 1 million bbls
• OOIP: 6.7 million bbls  [check the math: 0.15 x 6.7 = 1 million bbls]
• so, let's go with 6.7 million bbls OOIP for any given well
• 20% of 6.7 million bbls OOIP takes us to 1.34 million bbls -- CLR is already reporting EUR-type curves of over 1.2 million bbls

Number of wells yet to be drilled in the Bakken: 50,000. The North Dakota Bakken boom began in 2007, and was headed for about 2,000 new wells/year but then plateaued at about 1,000 to 1,5000 new wells per year. Using 1,500 new wells / year, eleven years in the Bakken puts us at [11 x 1500] 16,500 Bakken wells. So, let's see what NDIC says. According to the most recent Director's Cut, there were 15,103 producing wells in August, 2018, which by the way, was an all-time record. Wow, not too far off the mark. So, we can safely say , one can expect about 1,500 new wells/year. 50,000 new wells / 1,500 = 33 more years of drilling.

Years of production: just for grins, let's assume the OOIP is actually 500 billion bbls -- again, I'm inappropriately exuberant with regard to the Bakken -- and let's assume that for whatever reason, North Dakota maxes out at 2 million bopd production. Let's do the math:

• 15% primary recovery
• 15% of 500 billion bbls = 75 billion bbls
• 75 billion bbls / 2 million bopd / 365 = 100 years of production
• Now if each well has a EUR of, let's say 1.5 million bbls, how many wells would that require?
• 75 billion bbls by primary recovery / 1.5 million bbls / well = 50,000 wells
• 50,000 wells -- interesting. We're back to the same number suggested above -- another 50,000 wells to drill out the Bakken

Disclaimer: math is not my first language. There will be simple arithmetic errors on this page. In addition, in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. This is done for my benefit. No one should take any of this too seriously.

Where Did All That Talk Of $100-Oil Go?

Soaring production: Saudi Arabia, Russia, US all setting production records of some sort or another. And all the pundits were worried that Trump's sanctions on Iran would drive WTI / Brent to $100.  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.89↓↓↓↓	11/2/2018	11/02/2017	11/02/2016	11/02/2015	11/02/2014
Active Rigs	66	55	35	69	193

Two new permits:

• Operator: Slawson
• Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments: Slawson has permits for a 2-well Mole pad in 29-151-92;

Fourteen permits renewed:

• EOG (7): seven Hawkeye permits, all in McKenzie County
• BR (4): two Atlantic Express permits and two Pacific Express permits, all in Dunn County
• MRO (2): a Kottke USA permit and a Levi USA permit, both in Dunn County
• Newfield: one Bice permit in Dunn County

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 31581, 117, BR, CCU Audubon 2-1-27MBH, Corral Creek, t2/18; cum 92K 9/18;
• 29068, 73, BR, CCU Boxcar 34-22TFH, Corral Creek, t3/18; cum 112K 9/18; [#17319]
• 29067, 268, BR, CCU Boxcar 24-22MBH, Corral Creek, t2/18; cum 139K 9/18;
• 30141, 2,076, Dvirnak 6-7H1, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 15K after 7 days; Jim Creek borders Brooklyn on the east side; [#16716]
• 33735, 2,033, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-10, Blue Buttes, t--; cum --

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The Gene Simmons Page

From Gene Simmon's On Power: My Journey Through The Corridors of Power, And How You Can Get It -- More Power, c. c.2017, page 124:

If KISS had not taken off, I might still be a teacher in New York City, and proud of it. Or I might be doing something different. My point is I would be doing something, and I would be doing it successfully. I would have found a way, because that's what l've always done. I've always had a plan B and a plan C, because I know that life is not fair, and when reality takes everything away from you, you must be ready to start all over again.

FWIW: An Interactive Poster On Crucial Mid-Term Energy-Related Races -- November 2, 2018

At this link: https://www.spglobal.com/platts/plattscontent/_assets/_images/latest-news/110118-midterms.jpg, click on the poster to enlarge it and then move around to poster to see the energy issues Platts has identified as crucial for those following the US energy industry.

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KISS Is Coming To Dallas

At Starbucks a few days ago, one of the "regulars" mentioned that his 13-year-old son was eager to see KISS when the band comes to Dallas in a couple of months. Wow, what a coincidence. From my backpack I pulled out my copy of Gene Simmon's On Power: My Journey Through The Corridors of Power, And How You Can Get It -- More Power, c. c.2017.

One can read the book in one sitting. One can enjoy it over and over.

This is his eighth book. No typo. Eight books.

The first five chapters of On Power: his thoughts and advice on the subject of power and money.

Chapter 6: the classical power pantheon -- Machiavelli; Napoleon; and, Winston Churchill

Chapter 7: modern power players -- Oprah Winfrey; Elon Musk; Dave Grohl; Michael Jordan; Stan Lee; Warren Buffett; and, Frank Underwood

Chapter 8: epilogue.

For this post, I read the chapter on Warren Buffett.

I thought about Warren Buffett earlier today and also about Apple.

I'm absolutely convinced Tim Cook and Apple made the right decision about not releasing sales figures going forward. I am also convinced Tim Cook talked to Warren Buffett before making that decision. And I'm pretty convinced that Buffett supported Tim Cook's decision. Someday we might know how much more AAPL Buffett bought today. LOL. I'm hoping that Cook provides even less information regarding sales, such as average selling price, etc.

For me, FanBoy #3, Apple was never about money. It's just an incredibly good company, and there are indications that the company has not yet deviated from Steve Jobs' vision.

It Never Quits -- $10 Billion LNG Facility USGC Begins Commissioning -- November 2, 2018

Updates

November 5, 2018: Total and SRE sign agreement on LNG. 

Original Post 

Word search "Cameron" on the blog for previous notes about this facility. This note back from June 22, 2014. And the RBN list of potential US LNG export facilities back on October 12, 2016. Today from Rigzone:

• Sempra owns 50.2% of the liquefaction plant
• commission process has begun 
• first liquefaction train of Phase of the export project in Hackberry, LA

Keeping America great. The energy divide between the US and the EU just widened by another $10 billion. 

Another Amazing Energy Story; The Chevron Story -- November 2, 2018

First, from twitter:

Now, the article linked at Platts, data points --

• attributes increased production to well design tweaks; high-density fracks -- the same stuff being used in the Bakken
• Chevron's Permian output rises to 338,000 boepd
• Chevron USGC oil export capacity will triple -- not double -- but triple in early 2019 -- in early 2019? That's like two months from now ....
• Chevron's production surged 80% yoy
• reminder: memo to Art Berman who famously said, "shale is not a revolution, it's a retirement party"-- and he's a self-described oil expert
• Chevron's play in West Texas / eastern New Mexico: the Midland (eastern) and the Delaware (western) sub-basins
• 338,000 boepd is the equivalent of adding a midsized Permian pure-play E&P company in a matter of months
• CEO: "we're operating off a new basis of design and finding that has been incredibly successful
• and just think: Colorado voters may pass Proposition 112 and drive the oil industry out of their state; 
• Chevron said a couple of years ago it would ramp up to 20 rigs in the Permian; they now have 20 rigs in the Permian, and will probably stay at that level
• and, then get this, something we've said for seven years on the blog: "I think over time, we're going to try to move what we consider to be a critical performance metric away from just rigs to something that would be a better efficiency measure." Perhaps EURs?

From the Financial Times,

Chevron’s production surged in the third quarter, rising by 9 per cent as the company ramped up output from shale oilfields in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, and at its Australian natural gas plant Wheatstone.

The company, which is the second-largest US oil group by market capitalisation, revealed the increase as it reported earnings that were above analysts’ expectations even after one-off charges totalling $930m.

Earnings per share for the third quarter were $2.11, roughly double their level of $1.03 in the equivalent period of 2017, helped by rising oil and gas prices as well as the rise in production volumes.

Oil and gas output in the US was up 22 per cent, boosted by surging shale oil production.

“This allowed us to pay the dividend, fund our capital program, strengthen the balance sheet, and repurchase $750 million of the company’s common stock,” he said.

The combination of higher prices and increased volumes drove Chevron’s US oil and gas production operations from a loss of $26m in the third quarter of 2017 to a profit of $828m for the equivalent period of 2018, even after a $550m charge for a write-off at a project in the Gulf of Mexico.

Michael Wirth, who took over as Chevron’s chief executive earlier this year, said the company’s quarterly cash flow from operations of $9.6 billion was the highest it had been in nearly five years.

****************************************

Meanwhile, in Venezuela

From ArgusMedia:

Frequent blackouts are thwarting Venezuelan state-owned PdV's plans to revive oil production that is now hurtling toward 1mn b/d by year´s end.

On paper, state-owned utility Corpoelec has 36.3GW of thermal and hydro generation capacity nationwide, but only 12.5GW was operational in the first half of October.

Almost two-thirds of Corpoelec's installed generation capacity was out of service because of damaged equipment and chronic shortages of natural gas and diesel feedstock.

************************************ 

And The Road to Europe

About All Those iPhones We Won't Know How Many Were Sold -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 2, 2018

For all those investors who are upset that we will no longer know on a quarterly basis how many iPads Apple sells, for the record, we also have no idea how many automobiles Warren Buffett sells every quarter. I also don't know how many newspapers he sold this past year, and he owns a lot of regional newspapers. 

From February 25, 2018, an earlier post:

I was unaware of the number of automobile dealerships Berkshire Hathaway owns. From the annual letter, 2018:

Who Said The Bakken Boom Was Over? -- November 2, 2018

Trade Embargoes -- A Blast From The Past -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 2, 2018

Trenton, ND, bull rider to compete in world championships next week, Las Vegas. From myndnow:

The best bull riders in the world are competing next week in Las Vegas and one of the best comes from North Dakota.

"I found I can make a living doing what I love," said Stetson Lawrence, Professional Bull Rider. Stetson Lawrence grew up in Trenton, North Dakota and spent a lot of time at the rodeo grounds.

His father was a bull rider and even as a young boy he knew that was going to follow in his footsteps. "I dreamed of being where I am today," said Stetson. After competing for years, Stetson eventually became a professional bull rider. He worked his way up the ranks and survived a number of injuries - but he says it's all worth it. And why now? He's ranked number 24 in the world. 

And what a great name for a bull rider: Stetson.

Trenton is just a short ride from Williston. When I was last there a new casino was just being completed.

 ****************************

The Blast From the Past

At the turn of the century -- that would be the 19th century -- these were the "Big Three" cities in the US: New York City, Boston, and Salem.  Boston would lose out to New York City later, but at the turn of the century, Salem lost and lost big.

From The Peabody Sisters, Megan Marshall, c. 2006.

The Embargo Act, which prohibited any bound for a foreign destination from leaving port in the United States, had been designed to strike back at France and Britain for an escalating series of trade restrictions that encouraged the capture of American cargo by privateers ...

... But rather than force the hands of the French and the British, the 1807 Embargo Act abruptly decimated commerce in all the major ports along the Atlantic seaboard. By the summer of 1808, the harbors were willed with dismantled vessels; thousands of seamen were thrown out of employment ...

... In Salem, virtually all of the 225-vessel merchant fleet was tied up at dock until the embargo was lifted a year later for all trade but that with Britain and France. Even then, although merchants rushed to send their ships on voyages to the Caribbean, the Baltic, and the Far East, their ships and sailors remained in serious jeopardy from French and British privateers.

Jefferson's successor, James Madison, declared war on England in 1812 in an effort to put an end to the hostilities and gain Canada in the bargain -- much to the chagrin of Salem's shipowners, who had long held France accountable for the worst of the damage. Reluctantly Salem dedicated 40 of its fleet to the cause, losing 26 ships before the war ended in 1815, in a peace agreement that did not include the annexation of any Canadian lands. By the, of the 225 vessels registered in Salem at the start of the war, only 57 were left, the rest becoming the casualties of harsh economics.

Salem would never regain its leadership position in foreign trade, ceding it to the deeper harbors of Boston and New York. Salem's merchant class shrank to an aristocracy that lived on past glory and interest income ...

Later, maybe we'll see how Boston fell way behind NYC.

Screenshots -- Jobs, Gasoline Prices -- November 2, 2018

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+81 -- Nothing About The Bakken Or The Market Or Politics

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

It was a beautiful, beautiful ride into "work" this morning. It was cool, about 46 degrees when I got started, a bit before sunrise. It was pitch black and it was a bit hard to see where I was riding, but no mishaps. I got started a bit late, and rush-hour traffic -- morning commute -- had just begun. I like to get on my bike before the heavy traffic begins, but today I slept in. I did get to work before the sun rose, and actually before dawn itself. I did not see the rose fingers of dawn, as Homer would say.

But 46 degrees, no precipitation, though I did have to bike through one errant lawn sprinkling system, and absolutely calm. No wind. A great ride.

I would normally stay here and blog for another hour or so, but I'm reading a couple of books, too heavy to carry with me and I want to get back home and continue reading them.

The two books: the Bible and Virgil's Aeneid. I will only read a few passages from each every day for the next few weeks. I can't really say I'm reading them; I'm enjoying them, very, very slowly, like one enjoys a buffet.

The one or two verses in Genesis telling how God used the wind to end the flood is uncannily like Virgil's description of how Juno used the wind to almost drown Aeneas. The latter was the founder of Rome. Noah, mankind's common ancestor after the Flood. By the way, putting "2 and 2 together" as they say, it appears an argument could be made for suggesting that the early author(s) of the Bible and Homer were contemporary authors -- if +/-  250 years can make these early authors "contemporary." I think one can consider writers living anytime between 1000 BC and 300 BC as "contemporary." LOL. Yeah, that's a stretch, I know. Don't get me started.

Having read just a few pages of the commentary in the Bible I'm reading now (if I remember, I will post the specific Bible later after I get home) it explains a lot -- I now feel much more comfortable with the historical basis for the Bible. I know I have stumbled onto nothing new, but for me it is very, very rewarding. Sort of like "knowing" the real Shakespeare.

I also understood, for the first time, the "reason" for the long lifetimes of those early Biblical figures (850 years or so) and why it dropped to 120 years. Some will take those 850-year lives as "gospel," and, if so, "it is what it is." However, if not "gospel," one wonders how/why that "mythology" developed. I am unaware of that phenomenon in any other writings, unless of course, one considers the immortal lives of the Greek gods. There's probably something in Asian literature or subcontinent Indian literature of which I am unaware.

Those are the two big books I'm reading right now, but will continue to read several other books at the same time. Little snippets of each. Not seriously reading anything now.

So, I will be off the net for about an hour, I suppose, while biking home. And then we will begin again.

Oh, here it is, from my "library page":

• The New Oxford Annotated Bible; NRSV with the Apocrypha, an ecumenical study bible, Michael D. Coogan, editor, c. 1989; full price, $45; Barnes and Noble purchase; 

The book of consequence I'm reading this week is The Peabody Sisters, Megan Marshall, c. 2005. It's in my own library so I am under no pressure to finish it one week.

Random Look At Typical Long Lateral In Large Drilling Unit In The Bakken -- CLR -- Addyson-Boise-Boston Wells -- November 2, 2018

I am fascinated by a number of things. Oprah had her list. I have mine. One thing that fascinates me: how CLR is attacking the Brooklyn oil field in the Williston.

Here's an example of a 5120-acre drilling (spacing) unit.

The 5120-acre unit is laid out as a 2 x 4 grid: two sections wide and four sections long (running north to south). The eight sections in T155N R98W:

• 13/14
• 23/24
• 25/26
• 35/36

CLR has permits for a 4-well pad that will be sited in the NENE corner of section 26-155-98.

• 35659, Richmond 9-26HSL 1, runs north; 5120-acre unit; Three Forks B1;
• 35658, Addyson 10-23HSL 1, runs south; 5120-acre unit; Three Forks B1;
• 35657, Boston 4-25HSL, runs south; 5120-acre unit; middle Bakken;
• 35656, Boise 4-24HSL, runs north, 5120-acre unit; middle Bakken; 

Let's look at one of the wells:

• 35658, Addyson 10-23HSL 1, runs north; one of our wells in this 5120-acre unit; target: Three Forks B1;
• according to the permit, this will be a standard, run-of-the-mill long lateral:
• a Three Forks, first bench target
• vertical depth: 11,175 feet 
• total depth: 22, 438 feet
• horizontal: 11,263 feet 
• the bottom hole will be 10,736 feet almost directly north of the drilling site, in the corner of section 14-155-98
• the horizontal lateral will run along the west side of the section line between sections 23/25 and 14/13
• the horizontal lateral will be about 100 feet from the section line

This is what is really cool about this: any mineral owner who owns minerals in any part of any of those eight sections will participate in royalties from this well. This means that even those folks owning minerals two miles to the south of where this well is sited, and where the horizontal won't even come close will receive royalties from this well.

Screenshots.

The permit:

Satellite view:

The NDIC graphic:

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+81 -- November 2, 2018 -- Apple -- Thinking Different. Brilliant.

Hess: from Reuters -- 3Q18 --

• first profit for Hess since 2014; first profit in about four years
• slashed costs by 62%
• its average realized selling price, including hedging, was $66.08 per bbl in the third quarter
• very similar to that realized by CLR which does not hedge
• one year ago: $46.97
• production dropped 7% yoy
• net income:
• $52 million or 14 cents/share, 3Q18
• a loss of $624 million, or a loss of $2.02, one year earlier -- wow
• easily beat forecasts
• forecast: breaking even; an EPS of $0.00
• actual: 38 cents/share

Politics: I generally won't engage in politics when I'm out and about, but I got a kick out of the comments made this morning. One gentleman was concerned about the deficit and the debt, commenting that the US has added another $1.2 trillion in debt this past fiscal year. I said the deficit and the debt no longer mattered. We'll see if I'm correct. I'm not saying that huge deficit spending and a huge US debt doesn't matter from a rational point of view. What I'm saying is that the majority of Americans don't care how bad the deficit gets or how deeply the US goes into debt. We'll know if I'm right following the midterm elections next week.

Hubbert curve revisited. Sent to me by a reader:

Apple. Thinking differently. The biggest non-energy, market story today, is without a doubt, the announcement by Apple that it will no longer report sales numbers for computers, tablets, or phones. Brilliant move. Much could be written about that and normally I would but "it is what it is." I think it's a brilliant move. Steve Jobs would have done this; he might have done it a lot sooner. We may see a day in which Apple will simply post earnings and revenue without comment on a quarterly basis, with the annual report providing a more complete story. The tea leaves suggest we are seeing a tectonic change in quarterly earnings reporting.

Quarterly earnings reports. As just noted, the tea leaves suggest we are seeing a tectonic change in quarterly earnings reporting. Warren Buffett has been a wizard at this. He seems to talk non-stop about his holdings and has a huge annual report event, but when you really get into the weeds, how much do you really know about is newspaper holdings? His real estate operations? His automobile sales? See's Candy? Not much, but you would hardly know that unless you are follow BRK for whatever reason. Likewise, other than ad dollars and daily active users, how much do we really know about Facebook or Google. But, wow, do analysts and investors get upset with Apple when they don't report sales of each device. That might have been important at one time but it's now much less important. Those numbers are not irrelevant but they are certainly less important. Same with the number of oil rigs actively for oil when comparing activity in the 1950's with activity in the 21st century. Elon Musk got a lot of push back the way he handled a recent earnings conference call but I bet a lot of CEOs felt his pain. The Q&A at an earnings conference call reminds me of the Q&A after an NFL game. I would love to see Apple provide only earnings and revenue results on a quarterly basis (the minimum required by the SEC) but then host quarterly Apple events.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+81 -- November 2, 2018

Keystone XL: oilprice.com breaking news.

• TransCanada will sell some assets and bring in joint venture partners
• TransCanada says it is willing to sell assets to raise cash to partly fund the Keystone XL  

NOVA Gas: over at Rigzone.

• TransCanada, Calgary-based
• $1.5 billion NOVA Gas Transmission (NGTL) expansion
• will move gas from Alberta to British Columbia
• 122 miles of large diameter pipeline
• brings the capacity expansion programs underway on the NGTL System to more than $9 billion

COP departs Barnett: over at Rigzone.

• sold 114,000 net acres in the Barnett to Lime Rock Resources
• $230 million 
• $2,000 / acre
• Montague, Wise, Denton, and Cooke counties
• according to ConocoPhillips, its Barnett production for the first half of 2018 averaged 9,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Roughly 55 percent of that production volume comprised natural gas and the remaining 45 percent natural gas liquids

US, OPEC flood oil market: midterms? Sustainable? As if 150 US shale companies are colluding with Saudi Arabia to keep prices down prior to the midterms. LOL.

• OPEC: 33.31 million bpd in October, the highest since December, 2016 (the Saudi Surge)
• understatement of the year: "oil producers appear to be successfully offsetting the supply outages form Iran and Venezuela" ... well, duh. And, oh, by the way, the Iranian sanctions have not yet begun; 
• there were earlier stories that Iran maxed production in anticipation of the sanctions
• Russia: continues to produce at post-Soviet record highs
• at 11.346 million bopd in August, the US is outproducing Russia -- just slightly

Red Sea Project: remember the name -- Yanbu. Link here.

• Saudi Arabia and SABIC
• an integrated industrial complex to convert crude oil to chemicals (COTC)
• Saudi Arabia's west coast
• will process 400,000 bopd
• produce 9 million tons of chemicals
• Wood and KBR to perform the front-end engineering
• will generate 30,000 direct and indirect job
• will contribute 1.5% to Saudi Arabia's GDP by 2030
• Saudi Vision 2030
• to be operational by 2035
• Saudi Arabia/SABIC: 50/50

Iran sanctions, over at Rigzone. Story here.

Shell, re-posting. Shell produces one of it s strongest quarters ever. Rigzone. Link here.

TGIF -- November 2, 2018

Jobs -- really, really making America great

• payrolls smash estimates with gain of 250,000 -- CNBC
• wage gains pass 3% for first time since recession
• Bloomberg -- same thing -- huge report

How does the market feel about this, know that this greenlights the Fed to raise rates?

• the market seems to love it
• yesterday, CNBC talking head almost giddy with his forecast that Dow would plummet with AAPL falling 7%
• having said that, if AAPL had surged today, the Dow (irrelevant) would have been off the chart
• in pre-market, AAPL down 6%, but Dow (irrelevant) up 208 points in pre-market trading
• as bad as AAPL is doing, it's not the worst news for investors this morning: Kraft joins Campbell's as the poster children for "things gone bad" / changing American tastes

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here

Earnings:

• CVX: 3Q18 earnings -- pre-market trading, CVX up 2.23%. XOM/CVX here;
• EOG: reported; already posted; will review later. XOM/CVX here;
• XOM: 3Q18 earnings -- pre-market, XOM up 1.8%

XOM:

• revenue: $76.61 billion; huge beat; forecast, $72.45 billion
• profit: $6.24 billion
• per share: $1.46; huge beat; forecast, $1.21

Apple: thinking differently.

Keystone XL: update; posted.

COP departs Barnett: posted.

NOVA Gas: posted.

US, OPEC flood oil market: midterms? Sustainable? Posted.

Red Sea Project: remember the name -- Yanbu. Posted.

Iran sanctions, over at Rigzone. Posted.

Shell, re-posting. Shell produces one of it s strongest quarters ever. Rigzone. Posted.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• No wells coming off the confidential list today.
  

Active rigs:

$63.51↓↓↓	11/2/2018	11/02/2017	11/02/2016	11/02/2015	11/02/2014
Active Rigs	68	55	35	69	193

RBN Energy: domestic light oil processing in the USGC: have we hit the limit? Wow! What a great article! Archived.

Refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), which account for half of the country’s total refining capacity, are generally among the most sophisticated and complex anywhere, with configurations that enable them to break down heavy, sour crude oil into high-value, low-sulfur refined products.

However, over the past eight years, the USGC has been flooded with increasing volumes of light, sweet crudes produced in the Eagle Ford, the Permian and other U.S. shale plays as new pipelines were constructed or reversed to the coast for domestic refining or export. Still more pipelines will be coming online over the next year. Today, we evaluate how much domestic crude oil has been absorbed into the USGC refining system, the implications to the overall crude slate qualities, and options for increasing domestic crude oil processing in the near term.