Two Bakken Wells With Incredible Post-Shut-In-Jump In Production -- February 3, 2017

The Norfolk Wells
North Tobacco Garden

The usual disclaimer applies: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. In addition, I may be seeing things that don't exist. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Note, December 12, 2021: it appears the wells that went off line 4/20 were brought back on line 8/20.

32036, 365, CLR, Norfolk 8-1H1, Three Forks, 36 stages, 8.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 150K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line; cum 164K 7/22;

32035, 630, CLR, Norfolk 9-1H, middle Bakken, 37 stages, 8.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 158K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line, cum 169K 7/22;

32034, 460, CLR, Norfolk 10-1H1, Three Forks, 54 stages, 9.3 million lbs, t10/16; cum 154K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line; cum 163K 7/22;
32033, 540, CLR, Norfolk 11-1H, middle Bakken, 57 stages, 9.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 263K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line; cum 281K 7/22;
29000, 1,249, CLR, Norfolk 7-1H, middle Bakken, 40 stages, 4.6 million lbs, t5/15; cum 431K 5/20; cum 465K 10/21; cum 491K 7/22;
28999, 960, CLR, Norfolk 6-1H1, Three Forks, 30 stages, 4.4 million lbs, t5/15; cum 194K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line, cum 216K 7/22;
24508, 1,153, CLR, Norfolk 4-1H, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t6/14; cum 370K 5/20; (see production profile well down the page below); cum 390K 7/22;
24507, 679, CLR, Norfolk 5-1H, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 8.4 million lbs, t7/14; cum 181K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line; cum 184K 7/22;
23087, 395, CLR, Norfolk 3-1H, Three Forks, 30 stages, 2.8 million lbs, t12/12; cum 209K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line; cum 219K 7/22;
23086, 894, CLR, Norfolk 2-1H, middle Bakken, 30 stages, 2.8 million lbs, t12/12; cum 454K 5/20; cum 464K 10/21; cum 472K 7/22;
20676, 567, CLR, Norfolk 1-1H, middle Bakken, 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs, t8/11; cum 485K 5/20; cum 491K 10/21; cum 496K 7/22;

Original Post

 

We are being told that any well that is taken off for a significant period of time (for purposes of discussion, about 3 - 7 months) will show an increase in production when it is returned to production. Another example. 

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	18	1936	2393	4896	3482	373	3109
BAKKEN	11-2016	29	12522	12368	20960	22183	9423	12760
BAKKEN	10-2016	25	11695	11315	19873	15971	13561	2410
BAKKEN	9-2016	1	0	0	13	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	6	553	926	445	1279	1279	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	3277	3025	2433	10877	10877	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	3636	3811	2524	10884	10884	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	3435	3814	2526	9476	9476	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	3737	3424	2622	9745	9745	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	3668	3455	2430	6897	6510	387
BAKKEN	1-2016	18	2536	2382	1903	3786	2996	790
BAKKEN	12-2015	20	2820	3218	1759	5444	4774	670
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	4070	4057	2706	7332	6185	1147
BAKKEN	10-2015	19	3064	2968	1820	6061	4801	1260
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	5170	5343	3405	7590	6670	920
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	6055	6042	3935	10463	10018	445
BAKKEN	7-2015	24	4415	4366	3041	7938	7418	520
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	6011	5782	3809	11718	11718	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	6214	6354	5404	10461	9411	1050
BAKKEN	4-2015	16	2332	1977	3579	3724	3724	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	20	5509	5778	2577	13817	12567	1250
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	8748	9054	4082	19050	18250	800
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	10809	10691	5596	25340	21936	3404
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	10266	10264	5368	13131	13115	16
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	9484	9409	5780	17381	17366	15
BAKKEN	10-2014	29	8719	8519	5759	15253	15236	17
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	13315	13650	9488	25495	25471	24
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	12951	13259	9273	27399	27382	17
BAKKEN	7-2014	28	13802	12945	12806	24227	21923	2304
BAKKEN	6-2014	24	2521	2491	6178	4601	4532	69
BAKKEN	5-2014	1	0	150	128	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	15	1512	1802	700	2938	2926	12
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	3642	3896	1716	7337	7306	31
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	3259	3215	1548	6177	6149	28
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	3660	3567	1771	7088	7057	31
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	4161	4017	1989	8001	7970	31
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	3650	3446	1682	6524	6494	30
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	3898	4031	1926	6878	6847	31
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	3651	3602	1734	5984	5880	104
BAKKEN	8-2013	30	4139	3847	3173	7038	7009	29
BAKKEN	7-2013	15	1550	1821	557	2721	2026	695
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	4405	4605	1668	8253	8222	31
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	5045	4803	2099	9489	9472	17
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	5570	5773	2336	10065	9454	611
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	5864	5821	2713	10342	9388	954
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	5756	5591	3154	9914	9470	444
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	6106	6254	4804	10614	10441	173
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	7204	7660	9833	13775	13775	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	12	2419	1903	2203	5083	5083	0
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	6654	6636	2260	17753	17753	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	7586	7696	2584	22538	22538	0
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	7786	7604	2248	15325	15325	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	8808	8782	2730	18408	18408	0
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	9731	9937	2630	19633	19633	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	10553	10533	2567	18990	18990	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	30	10877	10979	2610	18985	18985	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	31	11896	11925	2916	20821	20821	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	11835	11663	2866	20009	20009	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	10589	10600	2818	17755	17755	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	12307	12739	3522	19971	19971	0
BAKKEN	11-2011	30	12576	12361	3476	20845	20845	0
BAKKEN	10-2011	31	9049	9118	2617	12113	12113	0
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	19442	19068	7421	34121	32611	1510
BAKKEN	8-2011	8	3290	2998	3967	5258	4180	1078

Just by taking this well off-line for a  month or two, one notes the huge jump in production.

A huge thank you to a reader. I was unable to find frack data for this well. A reader found the data for me and I updated the post. Thank you. As the reader noted, the completion data was at the file report (page 75; I did not look long enough or hard enough); but I re-checked FracFocus and, again, noted no data. (I last checked FracFocus on February 1, 2018.)

For the archives:

• 20676, 567, CLR, Norfolk 1-1H, North Tobacco Garden, API 33-053-03555; 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs; t8/11; cum 412K 12/16; 

The graphic of this area:

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500 Miles, Peter, Paul, and Mary
This is an incredibly important video. Anyone who doesn't believe in God after listening to Mary sing this solo is not listening. I'll talk more about it at a later date, but I'm too tired now; going to bed so I can get up early to see President Trump's early morning tweets.

Good luck to all.

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 Another example of post-shut-in-jump in production:

• 24508, 1,153, CLR, Norfolk 4-1H, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t6/14; cum 272K 12/16

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	21	6154	6406	4915	10740	10740	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	17610	17850	21510	34745	33213	1532
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	12890	12530	33291	29250	29250	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	11	1881	1665	4926	3592	1300	2292
BAKKEN	8-2016	1	50	0	5	15	15	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	5524	5797	3978	15078	15075	3
BAKKEN	5-2016	28	7652	7441	5124	18378	17538	840
BAKKEN	4-2016	19	4284	4407	2742	10343	10343	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	7964	8123	4831	16469	16469	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	7158	7019	4156	12505	12505	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	7761	7788	4746	13248	12331	917
BAKKEN	12-2015	18	4838	5038	2933	7743	7254	489
BAKKEN	11-2015	28	7337	7438	5238	11775	11625	150
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	7308	7024	5391	11887	11887	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	27	6824	6975	4730	8525	6120	2405
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	8758	9105	5395	13412	13026	386
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	8717	8231	6503	12822	11933	889
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	6883	7016	8053	10310	10310	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	7579	7475	11201	13340	12140	1200
BAKKEN	4-2015	17	4491	4198	7530	7621	7621	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	2	484	809	285	1536	1536	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	25	10073	10138	4501	18609	18609	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	12978	12751	5482	26201	26201	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	15615	16151	5986	22295	22295	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	18296	17904	7139	26372	26372	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	19976	19951	8055	33518	33518	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	9150	9153	4899	14064	14029	35
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	10900	10970	5935	17464	17447	17
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	19732	19709	9386	34831	34811	20
BAKKEN	6-2014	23	13065	12594	15869	19459	13032	6427
BAKKEN	5-2014	1	0	0	859	0	0	0

WTI: $54.49 At The Close, Friday, February 3, 2017

US House: Votes To "Repeal" Obama Methane Emissions Rule -- February 3, 2017

Can't touch this:

U Can't Touch This, MC Hammer From Rigzone:

US House repeals Obama rule on methane emissions from oil and gas operations; Senate expected to follow; Trump will sign

My hunch: American school kids are getting a huge education in how government works. Up front, in-your-face, we have an activist president who has distracted / attracted the mainstream media, while behind the scenes, the US House and US Senate just keep moving along with business.

More Obama rules to follow, including:

This is the first repeal of President Obama's policies that Congress is sending to President Trump’s desk,” said House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, in a statement.

“Fittingly, it will bring relief to Americans hurt by years of overreach and over-regulation.

We are repealing the Department of Interior’s stream protection rule—a rule the Obama administration pushed through at the last minute that was designed to decimate coal country.”

Meanwhile, it's just a matter of time before the president makes it official: the US will be withdrawing from Paris climate accord, joining other countries, including Canada, which, if I remember correctly was the first country to withdraw -- some years ago.

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Oil Patch Workers Being Recalled To Work

From Rigzone:

Now that oil prices are stable and above $50 per barrel, the energy industry’s depleted workforce is being called back into the field – but there are far fewer candidates with an ear to the ground.

As many as 350,000 oilfield workers lost their jobs during the downturn, which stretched beyond two years in a much lower for much longer down cycle. But the U.S. rig count is on the upswing, led by a frenzy in the Permian Basin, and companies need bodies at the wells.

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Unintended Consequences

Politics 101

Pundits suggest President Trump was a "bit rash" in some of his tweets and actions in his first two weeks as president.

It should be noted that during much of this period he had the advice of only two "White House counselors," the wild and crazy Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon because the progs refused to confirm his cabinet nominees who, compared to KC and SB, were seasoned, middle-of-the-road, calm, deep-thinking men and women who might have tempered some of Trump's actions, and provided a counter-point to KC and SB.

But the progs refused to confirm his nominees, and Trump was talking to himself, KC and SB. What could possibly go wrong?

Once his nominees like Wilbur Ross, Rex Tillerson, and others are on board, one can expect a somewhat-different White House. Or not.

 ****************************

Unintended Consequences

Protesting 101

From PennEnergy:

Dakota Access oil pipeline protesters who tried to set up a new camp on private land undermined the Standing Rock Sioux tribe's efforts to stop the $3.8 billion project, tribal Chairman Dave Archambault says.

Archambault in recent weeks has been pushing protesters to leave their flood-prone main encampment on federal land between the reservation and the pipeline route and asking that activism be spread around the U.S. He said efforts by some to establish a camp Wednesday on nearby higher ground "do not represent the tribe."

Authorities arrested 74 protesters, including American Indian activist Chase Iron Eyes, after they set up teepees Wednesday on land owned by Texas-based pipeline developer Energy Transfer Partners.

Protesters said they were peacefully assembling on land they believe rightfully belongs to American Indians. The Morton County Sheriff's Office initially reported 76 arrests but later said two were protesters accused of unrelated drug offenses.

The new camp site was west of the main encampment that for months has housed hundreds and sometimes thousands of people who support the tribe's position that the pipeline threatens their drinking water and Native American cultural sites. The pipeline would carry oil from North Dakota through the Dakotas and Iowa to a shipping point in Illinois. The route would go under Lake Oahe, a large reservoir along the Missouri River.

Energy Transfer Partners disputes the tribe's arguments and says the pipeline will be safe.

A few hundred people still remain in the main camp, which is being cleaned up this week in advance of spring flooding that could carry any remaining refuse into the Missouri River. Archambault in recent weeks has called for the camp to disband, and late Wednesday he urged people who have left to stay away.

"In these past few weeks at camp, I see no reflection of our earlier unity, and without unity we lose," he said.

Iron Eyes, who made an unsuccessful bid for Congress last fall, remained jailed Thursday and unavailable for comment, a spokesman said. Iron Eyes told The Associated Press last week that he and others feel a need to "keep up the pressure" because "right now the will of the public is being expressed by a president that does not represent the majority in this country."

Week 5: January 29, 2017 -- February 4, 2017

For the archives: Donald Trump has been president for two weeks.

I might come back to this later. A lot of important national and international news that was not noted in the links below, notably: ExxonMobil doubles down in the Permian

Bakken 2.0
Twenty-eight (28) permits renewed

Operations
Statoil's Skarston wells in Banks oil field all seem to be back on line
Two-month production record for Oasis?
Random look at post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Another random look at post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Another example of post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Another example of post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Huge jump in production after neighboring well, different formation fracked
Huge CLR well back on status
EOG reports a huge oil well in the Parshall oil field
CLR's Bridger - Bonneville wells -- getting ready for completion? 

Pipelines
Several posts regarding DAPL:

• beginning of the end;  
• turmoil at the FERC, but won't affect crude oil pipelines (FERC regulates natural gas pipelines, not crude oil pipelines);  
• eight DAPL protesters guilty as charged; hit with huge fine; 
• more gages for the DAPL pipeline;  
• top story over at Google/Finance: 
• DAPL to proceed; US Army directs US ACE to issue easement;  
• everything went well;  
• update;

Fracking
Bakken101 - testing different completion methods
Re-completed QEP well with updated frack data 

Bakken economy
Update on $2 billion fertilizer plant planned for North Dakota

Miscellenaeous
Most under-reported story: drop in gasoline demand
North Dakota, South Dakota ranked high for raising a family
North Dakota ranked #1 for raising a family 

The End Of The Beginning Of The End Of The Beginning Of The End -- DAPL Update -- February 3, 2016

From The Bismarck Tribune:

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers issued notices on Friday to protesters, warning that corps-managed federal property adjacent to the Cannonball River would be closed on Feb. 22. In addition, the Bureau of Indian Affairs pledged its support in helping the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe in closing the protest camps within its reservation boundary.

Meanwhile, two days after an anti-Dakota Access Pipeline demonstration took place at Backwater Bridge, former Congressional candidate Chase Iron Eyes was charged on Friday with inciting a riot and trespass.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., lauded the federal government for its assistance.

Don't you just love politicians, always out in front? I could be wrong, but I think this is the first I've heard something from the senator on this issue.

*************************

The Sports Page

The Tiger Woods update.

After a 16-month layoff, he was expected to play four times in five weeks.

Last week: Farmers Insurance Open, Torrey Pines, missed the cut.

Today: Dubai Desert Classic (which he never, never, ever, ever misses): opening round 77 -- atrocious; withdraws, citing muscle spasm in lower back. 

The ND Levang Wells, QEP, Grail Oil Field -- February 3, 2017

From a post dated January 18, 2017:

One permit canceled:

• QEP: an ND Levang permit in McKenzie County; it was also noted that QEP is changing the target formation on one ND Levang well from the Three Forks third bench to the middle Bakken based on name change (#33267: the ND Levang permit that was 3-16-21T3HD is now ND Levang 7-16-21BHD).

The ND Levang permits/wells:

• 33333, 1,251, QEP, ND Levang 6-16-21BHD, Grail, t7/17; cum 245K 7/21;
  
• 33332, 588, QEP, ND Levang 2-16-21T2HD, Grail, t6/17; cum 167K 7/21;
• 33331, 1,602, QEP, ND Levang 5-16-21BHD, Grail, t7/17; cum 215K 7/21;
• 33270, PNC, QEP, ND Levang 5-16-21T2HD, Grail,
• 33269, 732, QEP, ND Levang 8-16-21BHD, Grail, t5/17; cum 273K 7/21;
• 33268, 708, QEP, ND Levang 4-16-21T2HD, Grail, t5/17; cum 182K 7/21;
• 33267, 672, QEP, ND Levang 7-16-21BHD, Grail, t5/17; cum 221K 7/21;

************************************

The ND Levang wells:

The Closer, T+14, February 3, 2017

Active rigs:

	2/3/2017	02/03/2016	02/03/2015	02/03/2014	02/03/2013
Active Rigs	40	44	143	188	187

Seven (7) new permits:

• Operators: XTO (4), QEP (3)
• Fields: Bear Den (McKenzie), Grail (McKenzie)
• Comments: in Bear Den, SENE 36-149-96; in the Grail, NWNW 16-150-95

Producing wells completed:
28739, 564, EOG, Parshall 86-29H, Parshall, t1/17; cum -- ; TD = 14,389; 1280-acre spacing;
28740, 697, EOG, Parshall 161-2928H, Parshall, t1/17; cum -- ; TD = 15,242; 1280-acre spacing;
31904, 900, BR, CCU Golden Creek 3-1-26TFH, Corral Creek, t1/17; cum --
31905, 1,065, BR, CCU Golden Creek 2-1-26MBH, Corral Creek, t12/16; cum --

Bakken 2.0: Testing Completion Methods -- February 3, 2017

See BR's Gudmunson wells in Elidah oil field, note:

• one well with 24 stages (old school); 10 million lbs (new school)
• another well with 61 stages (new school); 14 million lbs (new school)

**********************
Turmoil At FERC

Won't affect DAPL, Keystone. The turmoil at FERC would not affect the proposed Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines. FERC does not issue permits for oil pipelines.

************************

Closing Out A Poll

OPEC, Russian cuts in crude oil production will result in a spike in oil prices in late 2018:

• agree: 39%
• disagree: 60%
• even sooner: 1 vote

I'm in the camp that says the price oil will "melt up" in an orderly fashion. I'm not alone: "It is unrealistic to expect that the commodity will reach $65 a barrel in the near term, an analyst at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) told CNBC.

*******************************

New Poll

Making America greater than ever before -- quick, without a google search, how many private jets will descend on Houston this weekend for the NFL Super Bowl? [Later, February 4, 2017: Results of the poll:

• 13: 2%
• 130: 28%
• 1,300: 55%
• 13,000: 15%

Correct answer 1,300.]

This is a huge, huge deal. In the future, the Super Bowl can only be held where local airfields can handle 1,300 private jets.

Climate warming? Are you kidding?

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Lockheed 

A single Trump tweet saves over $700 million on 90 new F-35 fighters. One link here but being reported everywhere.

Politics On T+14; "Clock Boy" Clocked; February 3, 2017

As I'm sitting here watching Fox Business News, the news is non-stop with regard to Trump and the White House. Trump is everywhere, 24/7. Has he even gone golfing yet? Yes, he has but one would never know it. Progs are not seen on television -- has anyone seen Schumer lately? Except when he cried over the Feinstein-Obama-Trump immigration plan. By the way, that immigration flap? It's old news. The protestors can't keep up.

********************************

Morning reality show: Trump getting ready to meet with CEO advisory council.

Putin's a/c carrier: nearly home; in the Barents Sea, north of Sweden.

Dodd-Frank to be eviscerated; banks will surge.

Berkeley burning. Old news. Now NYU out of control. This will help the optics, the prog narrative.

"Clock Boy" clocked. Case dismissed; ordered to pay attorney fee, court fees. 

*********************************

Timelines

The Obama Timeline: "drawing a red line"

• announcement via a long, Harvard-law-professor-like speech; uses the pronoun "I" not less than a dozen times
• six months -- watchful waiting -- more speeches
• red line fades away; nothing happens

The Trump Timeline: "put on notice"

• two days later, a crawler on television announcing new sanctions 
• no speech; just happens -- two days later 
• complete transparency: says he will act; acts

Market Stories On T+14: Huge Jobs Report For Donald Trump; Can't Wait For Tweet -- February 3, 2017

Market late morning: up 180 points. 

Market surges on Trump's job numbers: surges 112 points on the opening!  Dow 30 back up over 20,000. Wow!

Another fake story? I'm waiting for The New York Times to wade in. Yesterday it was the "bacon shortage." Today it's the "severe vegetable shortage in Europe, depriving Europeans of spinach, broccoli." Why? Oh, it's global warming -- "European consumers have been plunged into crisis by a vegetable shortage caused by severe weather. I can't make this stuff up.

Here in Texas? Vegetables are in season:

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Pre-Market

Jobs day: everyone watching for first monthly jobs report under President Trump. Forecast: economy will add 175,000 jobs; unemployment will remain unchanged at 4.7%. Some on Fox Business News think we could see a blow-out number of over 200,000, some even say 225,000. The whisper number is 230,000; now talking heads saying much higher numbers. Analyst says Houston oil jobs coming back faster than expected. Market is up 50 points in anticipation.

And the numbers are: 227,000. Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.8%. Labor force participation up. Hourly wage up 0.1%. Labor participation up to 62.9% -- first movement in some time.

• retail: 46K
• construction: 36K
• manufacturing: 5K

Government jobs? Down 10,000. 

Analysis: Trump deserves credit; enthusiasm under Trump. Market jumps; futures now up 84 points.  Fox News gives much credit to Trump; CNBC says it has nothing to do with Trump. Now CNBC says the "great moves (stock market, jobs) not due to Trump winning, due to Hillary losing." Wow, I'm glad I've moved to Fox News. 

Jobs: Japan putting together package to bring 700,000 jobs to the US; putting finishing touches on a package that could create a $450-billion market. Finally mentioned on Fox Business "Morning With Maria" at 7:43 a.m. Central Time. Finally, Stu Varney, 7:52 a.m. Central Time excited about this news, but Maria and others change subject again. I guess everyone is waiting for Abe's package. But remember: when you see Abe's package, you heard about it here first.

**********************************

Oil

WTI: just under $54 before jobs report.

OPEC crude oil cut: OPEC and Russia are "shielding Asia from supply cuts agreed in a landmark deal last year as they fight to protect their market share in Asia." Data points:

• Asia is OPEC's core and growing market
• re-balancing will be slower in Asia unless regional demand picks up
• signs of an ongoing Asian oversupply
• ~ 30 chartered supertankers, known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are sitting in the waters outside Asia's oil trading hub of Singapore and southern Malaysia

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Natural Gas

Warmists tell us this winter has been the warmest winter in the US in a gazillion years. The warmest winter.

One assumes, with the warm weather, REX 3, and the Marcellus, natural gas stores should be surging. Not so fast! Natural gas stores have dropped below the five-year average. Who wudda thoughts? A warm winter and the Marcellus? Can you say "war on coal" and "nuclear energy plants closing":

*************************

Making America Greater Than Ever

Another huge story today: Japan putting together a package to create 700,000 jobs in America; will use Japanese cash reserves to pay for infrastructure builds in the US. Makes one think: what's going on?

Some things to think about:

• cheapest energy in the world, and plenty of it; much of it "green"
• corporate tax reform on the horizon
• repeal ObamaCare: huge corporate tax relief; huge regulatory relief 
• end of "climate change" craziness
• end of huge "multi-national deals that compromise toward mediocrity; America on short end; return to bilateral negotiations; friends of US at front of the line

The Opener, T+14 -- February 3, 2017

Active rigs:

	2/3/2017	02/03/2016	02/03/2015	02/03/2014	02/03/2013
Active Rigs	40	44	143	188	187

RBN Energy: why vertically integrated midstream companies hold an edge.

Scott Adams: President Trump and the other countries.

Active rigs? Staying alive. At 40 rigs, near what it was last year:

Stayin' Alive, Bee Gees