Last Month (March, 2011) Coolest Month GLOBALLY Since 1994 -- Still On Track for 1.45 Degrees Warmer 100 Years From Now

Link here.

March 2011 ended up as the coolest March globally since March of 1994. The actual global temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere last month was negative 0.026 C.

Despite this one month anomaly, the warming trend is 0.145 degrees/decade.  Yes, that's what the linked site said: 0.145 degrees increase over ten years. If the trend continues, a hundred years from now the average global temperature for the lower troposphere will increase 1.45 degrees. A hundred years from now, 1.45 degrees warmer.

I can't make this stuff up.

[Oh, by the way: March was also the month that some countries shut down some nuclear reactors following the Japanese nuclear disaster and went back to fossil fuel in some cases to produce electricity.]

[Japan is home of the Kyoto Protocol. Goes nuclear to a) save money; and, b) lessen the carbon footprint, and ends up with the disaster they are dealing with, all for 1.45 degrees over the next hundred years.]

John Andrist: The More I Read, The More He Impresses Me

I keep running across some excellent articles and/or op-ed pieces by John Andrist and the more I read, the more impressed I am with him.

This is one of many articles I have stumbled across while researching the Bakken. Unfortunately this is a regional link which is like to break soon.

John Andrist is a state senator, representing District 2, which includes Williams, Burke, Divide and Mountrail counties.

I am not a citizen of North Dakota, and have no agenda in linking articles by Mr Andrist except for educational purposes. 

AAPG Article on The Three Forks Formation

Link here. Published April, 2011.

The article appears to be based on an interview with Steven Sonnenberg. Sonnenberg is professor of petroleum geology at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, CO, and heads the school's Bakken Research Consortium, with 20 member companies and a grant from the National Energy Technology Laboratory.

Current thinking puts recoverable oil from the Bakken Shale at just over two billion barrels, and from the Three Forks Formation at just under two billion.

The U.S. Geological earlier estimated mean, technically recoverable, undiscovered volumes in the Bakken system of 3.65 billion barrels of oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids.

Sonnenberg said the main source rock for the upper Three Forks is the lower Bakken Shale, although where the lower and middle Bakken thin in the southern Williston Basin, the upper Bakken is the main source.

The Three Forks underlies the Bakken, separated by the Sanish Formation.

The article, thus, clarifies the Sanish formation a bit more. 

(The term Sanish is used in several different contexts in North Dakota. Confusion over the name led one local geologist to declare, “The Sanish should vanish,” Sonnenberg said.)

I was happy to read that; I wasn't the only one confused by the "Sanish" term.

Three (3) New Permits -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Operators: XTO (2), Petro-Hunt

Fields: North Fork, and a wildcat.

The Petro-Hunt wildcat is about 20 miles north of Williston and Stockyard Creek.

The XTO wells will be on a single pad in North Fork.

Among wells that reported today, three good ones:

• 19061, 1,215, Zenergy, Payette 10-15H
• 19144, 952, Marathon, TAT USA 34-22H
• 19531, 1,055, Whiting, Barlow 14-6XH, spudded 11/10; test date 2/11; one day of production in February: 137 barrels

Note the "X" designation of the Whiting well. See a Whiting corporate presentation for diagrammatic explanation of an "X" well -- it's an infill well that picks up the part of a section not otherwise reached by long laterals.

**********

Incredibly, there was a report of a dry hole:

• 17538, DRY, Slawson, Intruder Federal 1-17H, Ratcliffe formation (Madison)

The Ratcliffe formation is part of the Madison/Charles group, and just a bit above the Bakken. There is no recent activity in this area; but there are some nice Madison wells in the immediate area southwester part of the state, but it is a bit unusual to see a Slawson well out here. It will be interesting if they try again. 

**********

Seven wells were released from confidential status. Most remained in DRL status but one was particularly nice:

• 18822, 1,304, Anschutz, Dennis Kadrmas 1-9-4H-143-96

The Kadrmas well is in Fayette oil field which is a very good field, "owned" by Anschutz (since acquired by OXY USA), and currently very active with four active rigs in the immediate area

Week 14: April 2 -- April 8, 2011

WTI Oil Hits New Record: $112.50, April 8, 2011

Surge Energy Makes Significant Acquisition in North Dakota -- Spearfish/Madison Formations

Spearfish / Madison Formation Activity in Bottineau County, North Dakota

Petro Harvester Acquires Sagebrush Madison Wells in Bottineau County, North Dakota

Medicine Pole Hills Field -- Spearfish Story

Why The Bakken is So Exciting: Madison Formation

Bakken-Like Activity in Canada -- the Alberta Basin Bakken

Supplement: Talkin' the Bakken

Just How Good is the Bakken: 700K After Just Three Months

Cost of Renewable Energy: Electric Rates Up Double-Digit Rates

Another Man-Camp: Killdeer, North Dakota

Menard's Will Set up Location in Williston! Huge News!

$9,000/Acre in Zenith Oil Field: Tyler Field? Whiting?

$9,000/Acre in Zenith Oil Field: First Report

10-Acre Mobile Park Approved For Dickinson, North Dakota

Hess Now Listed As Operator For Tracker Wells

Land Lease Results -- North Dakota -- February, 2011

Waterflooding in the Alberta Basin Bakken -- Implications for the Williston Basin Bakken

Another Man-Camp: Dickinson, North Dakota

Technology for 60-Stage Fracking in the Bakken

Hearing Docket for NDIC April, 2011

Speculators and $112 Oil

It will be interesting to see if speculators are willing to hold their contracts for $112 over the weekend.

It certainly appears that oil is now trading in tandem with gold.

Update, 14:05 p.m. EST, Friday, April 8, 2011: I guess they will. Oil continued to rise as the market got closer to closing and in the after-hours continued to go up. Right now, oil is at $113.14.

173: Not Quite There, But Getting Close to a New Record -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Active rigs drilling in North Dakota: back up to 173, just one short of the all-time high (174).  And back up nicely from a recent "low" of 168.

• Continental: still at 22
• Hess: 17 (up from 14 just a few days ago) Back in February, Tracker had 3; now there are no Tracker wells in North Dakota; Hess acquired Tracker last year
• Whiting: 15
• EOG: 11 (no change)
• AEZ: down to 2; had 7 before it was bought by Hess

On just this short list, it looks like there might be five (5) wells "unaccounted for" since the Hess/Tracker/AEZ buyouts (Tracker down 3; Hess up 3; AEZ down 5)

AP: $111 Oil Because Libyan Oil Fields Damaged

Update, 9:38 a.m. EST, Friday, April 8, 2011: CNBC says the reason for high price of WTI oil is because refineries say there is a tight supply for low sulphur crude which the US uses. OK. Now explain the high price for Brent, which reflects the high sulphur crude supplied by Saudi Arabia. Pundits continue to say that Saudi has plenty of spare capacity.

Original Post 

The AP has chimed in with their reason why oil is now trading at $111: because Libyan oil fields have been damaged.

Early on, pundits said that Saudi Arabia could easily make up any shortfall from Libya due to the civil war. I did not agree with that; I did not think Saudi would/could make up the shortfall. I won't go through all the reasons again.

But, if pundits in general agree that Saudi could make up for the Libyan shortfall, why is the news that Libyan oil fields have been damaged be the reason for oil moving to $111? It was not a stretch to predict that the fields would be damaged in any conflict.

I think AP has taken two facts ($111 oil, and damaged oil fields) and simply drawn cause and effect.

I still think analysts are missing this point: the Saudis like what they see. 

Reminder: the numbers were all over the board due to the writer's agenda, but it was said that Libya exported anywhere from 400,000 to 2 million bbls/day. Whatever it was, almost all of it went to Europe. The US imported about 60,000 bbls of oil/day from Libya. North Dakota is producing about 345,000 bbls/day.

Boone Pickens: Reason for High-Price Oil -- Supply / Demand

Flashback:

Boone Pickens said oil will trade in the $150 range, July 8, 2008, just as oil was falling; it fell $8 in two days; down to $131.  But he says oil will stay in $150 range; and he says if supply/demand balances out, could see $100 oil in two years (2010).  -- CNBC story.

That is a memo in my Yahoo!Calendar that pops up every six months.

So, the answer to a question I posed earlier, one could argue, according to Boone Pickens, is all about supply and demand. 

Enough Water for Fracking in the Bakken? You Betcha!

The water behind the dams and all through the Bakken is higher than ever. (That's a bit of hyperbole; it's higher, but not necessarily setting new records.)

US Army Corps of Engineers starting to increase outflow of water. At one time the Corps said there was not enough water for fracking -- and then they said they could release enough water to frack ten thousand wells/year. That was before this story.


Fort Peck Reservoir fourteen (14) feet higher than last year at this time.

Thanks to a wet winter, Fort Peck Reservoir rose by 2.9 feet in March and is 14.5 feet higher than it was a year ago at this time, according to a report from the Army Corps of Engineers.

Likewise, other dams along the Missouri River were flush with water, prompting the Corps to begin raising outflows to allow more room for spring runoff.

By the way, the global warming folks predicted all this increase precipitation and rising water. 

Two words: "storage fee."

On another note, President Obama signed emergency declaration for North Dakota flooding on the Red River. Note: the Red River is on the far east side of the state and is too far away for use by the oil industry, located on the western side of the state.