Monday Morning -- August 10, 2026

Locator: 5137ARCHIVES.

Mideast: regardless of how this turns out for the US and its global allies, this "optional" war was absolutely a most necessary thing, and long-term benefits will be felt for many decades. One may want to read Samuel P. Huntington's Clash of Civilizations, c. 1993, a post-Cold War new world order. Link to Huntington here, who died at the age of 81, in 2008. I think he would say he predicted "this."

Israel and Hamas now at a standstill in "peace negotiations. Netanyahu has said Israel will not accept Trump's conditions for peace in that region "controlled" by Hamas.  

US war graphics on CNBC: flag-draped coffins. 

An average of 700 people die each week on the nation's highways. Speeding is the most common cause cited for the underlying factor for US traffic fatalities, followed by driving under the influence of alcohol. One wonders how a crash caused by inebriated speeding driver is classified. According to a chatbot, that decision is left up to the investigating police officer at the scene. I would assume in many such cases, the police do not know the status of the driver at the time of the accident. My hunch: suicide by driving is also under-reported.

Iran's short-term goal: get its neighbors to demand that the US leave the Persian / Arabian gulf. Could that happen? Extremely unlikely but nothing surprised me any more. 

AOC: making the television rounds suggesting she is serious about a US Senate or even a US presidential run in 2028.The US Senate is certainly within her reach. The US presidency: very unlikely. 

Spider-Man: still making the news with regard to its opening week records. The "Taylor Swift" of movies?

META AI: META releases "Muse Glimmer" AI model. See NY Times.

Apple: the rest of 2026 and all of 2027 will be tough for Apple and AAPL but things should be back on track in 2028. 

Lumentum is likely to be in the news today (LITE). We've discussed it at least one time before. Query: Which hyperscalers have business relationships with Lumentum? Answer: 

Yes, I think I first heard of Lumentum in articles about META's huge LDC in Louisiana. 

Replying To A Reader Regarding Spacing -- The Recently-Completed Sarah Wells In Eastern Richland County, Montana -- August 10, 2026

Locator: 51374SARAH.

The blog appears to be less than two hours away from 83 million pageviews. The blog is garnering about one million new pageviews every two to three days. The blog is not monetized. It does not meet the host's guidelines. Even if it did meet the host's guidelines, I would not monetize it.  

Note: I am not aware of any blog that would reply to a single reader like this. One may want to google or ask a chatbot "what is the best blog on the Bakken?" I don't know whether chatbots "track" blogs. At one time I was told by ChatGPT, I think, that it did not track blogs. That could have changed. I do not know.  

Streaming: I still maintain that subscribing to Hulu-Netflix-Amazon Prime is the best streaming combo for me. 

Now, back to a sidebar discussion regarding the Bakken: 

In a sidebar discussion with a reader the following.

A reader asked why the "Sarah wells" in eastern Richland County, Montana were spaced at 1459 acres.

My reply:  

John (not the reader's real name), that's really a great, insightful question.

This I believe is the answer. I assume Montana does things the way North Dakota does.

Deeds and spacing units are based on sections and parts of sections in any particular township.

A section is 640 acres. If the drilling unit is, let's say, all of section 8 and all of section 17, that would be a standard drilling / spacing unit (1280 acres). 

Gradually spacing units are getting bigger (three sections = 1920 acres becoming very common, and now even overlapping units with four sections = 2560 acres).

If you look at the Montana oil map (GIS) (this is the URL: https://bogapps.dnrc.mt.gov/dataminer/MontanaMap.aspx) and then keep zooming in until you see the wells distinctly you will see that the well pad and the singleton Sarah well were drilled in Section 5 of whatever township that is.

The lateral of the four Sarah well "you have" and the Delores well "you don't have" are all on the same pad, but it appears the Sarah wells were spaced for sections 5, 8 and 17 (whereas the Dolores well was was spaced in completely different sections (to the east) as was the singleton Sarah well (spaced to the east and that you don't get royalties from that well).

So, "your Sarah wells" are spaced for sections 5,8, and 17. Normally that would be a three-section unit or 1920 acres. But look at the map.

Townships have 36 sections, each 640 acres, but if the township is not big enough to accommodate that much acreage, the state will need to get 36 sections but then make the last row (either the top row, sections 1 - 6, or the bottom row, sections 31 - 36) much smaller, to get all 36 sections. By the way, if the township is slightly larger than 36 acres, the additional acreage will be recorded as "lots" in enough sections to account for the difference.  

In this case, the township was too small and they made sections 1 - 6 much smaller.

1920 (three sections) would have been expected.

1920 - 1459.36 (let's call it 1460) = 460 acres, about 3/4th of a full section.

The map suggests section 5 is smaller than that (smaller than 460 acres) but regardless, I think the spacing was by section and adding up acreage in sections 5, 8 and 17 was 1459 acres, not quite the 1920 acres that one would expect in a 3-section unit. 

************ 

Delores was not spaced to include section 17 and the parent well, Sarah 1 to the east of the pad, the singleton, was also not spaced to included section 17. It was pure "serendipity" that the four Sarah wells were spaced to include section 17, and that was the only section in which you have minerals in this spacing unit, according to your notes, if I understand them correctly.

That would be my explanation until I learn differently.

BRK: Greg Abel Starting To Deploy Buffett's Massive Cash Horde -- August 10, 2026

Locator: 51373MARKET.

Market open: CNBC suggests the market open will be "mixed." 

• the Dow will be down an inconsequential 60 points;
• NASDAQ will be up about 60 points;
• S&P will be down about 2 points. 
• Copper is up: $6.622. 

Movie releases: Paramount Skydance is willing to commit in writing to releasing 30 films a year in theaters -- CNBC, 5:26 a.m. CT. It appears that even if PS loses the Netflix deal, PS has a strong commitment to making movies. 

AVGO: link here for chart of the day -- Broadcom's bullish setup strengthen.  

APPL: currently is up about 60 cents in pre-market trading (5:32 a.m. CT).  

BRK: link here for headline of the day -- Berkshire earnings were good -- not great. This should get your attention: it's "good" report was due mostly to currency gains -- 

The conglomerate reported a 16% increase in after-tax operating profits to $13 billion on Saturday, but the advance was driven mostly by a swing in one-time currency gains and losses that the company doesn’t strip out of its earnings. The big loser was Japan’s yen, which affects the carrying value of Berkshire’s $15 billion of yen borrowings that help fund its equity stakes in five Japanese trading companies.

BRK: pre-market, BRK appears to be up one-half of one percent, about $2.82, trading at $524.62, pretty much in line with what the rest of the Dow is doing. The BRK meme today: CEO Greg Abel is starting to deploy Buffett's massive cash horde.

Amazon Prime: has another massive hit -- Ride or Die.  The entire 8-episode 2026 season dropped on July 15, 2026. One can binge-watch the entire series in one evening. The series stars two hugely successful Hollywood women. Judith Burton, played by Hannah Waddingtham, channels Jason Boerne in that highly successful franchise. 

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Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.

Longer version here.  

Monday Morning -- Pre-Market -- August 10, 2026

Locator: 51372B.
Pageviews: the blog will hit the  83-million-page handle today, probably early morning.

Pre-market:

• it's subtle, but all indications are the US market is up slightly in pre-market trading;
• even AAPL is up slightly despite its headwinds;  
• WTI is up slightly
• tech:
• Micron gains ever as Apple looks to China for memory; link to Barron's;
• Apple up slightly pre-market;
• Micron is edging up early today, despite a report that Apple is testing Chinese memory ships; 

AAPL: ex-dividend today; I believe it pays its next dividend August 13, 2026 -- later this week; 

WNBA: time for the US government to step in to protect American citizens before someone gets hurt. 

RBN Energy: has posted the rest of Friday's blog. Link here. "Is Europe on the brink of another natural gas crisis?

The EU aims to have inventories 90% full by November 1 each year. The target was established in 2022 in response to the Russian gas crisis and the extremely low inventories of 2021. Inventories were drawn down very low last winter (left half of orange line in Figure 2 below), well below the 10-year average (blue line), and have been slow to build since then (right half of orange line). Because of high costs and constraints on the market, the EU decided in April to relax its November 1 target to 80%. 

Figure 2. European Gas Storage Inventories. Source: Bloomberg

European storage inventory levels are slightly above where they were in 2021, as Russia was cutting piped imports into Europe as tensions on the Ukraine border were mounting. But injections have lagged this year and current inventories are sitting near the bottom of the 10-year range (gray-shaded area).

Much discussion and the final paragraphs:

And while total U.S. exports are much higher this year (dashed red circle in Figure 4 above) than they were in 2022, the U.S. exported just 54 cargoes to Europe in June, 17 fewer than June 2025 and the lowest since August 2024. Exports to Europe ticked up modestly in July and early August, but nowhere near enough to have the dramatic impact on storage inventories that Europe needs.

So, the EU is now essentially in a game of chicken, facing the very tough decision of letting the situation play out (and risking the consequences of a severe winter) or intervening (and driving already high prices even higher). More U.S. LNG exports would certainly help, and cargoes will increase as we get closer to winter. But in general, U.S. export capacity has been somewhat hamstrung by delays at Golden Pass LNG and maintenance at some existing terminals, most notably Freeport LNG. A far larger factor would be the return of Qatari LNG, but the further into injection season we get, the more perilous things look for this winter.