Locator: 51372B. Pageviews: the blog will hit the 83-million-page handle today, probably early morning.
Pre-market:
it's subtle, but all indications are the US market is up slightly in pre-market trading;
even AAPL is up slightly despite its headwinds;
WTI is up slightly
tech:
Micron gains ever as Apple looks to China for memory; link to Barron's;
Apple up slightly pre-market;
Micron is edging up early today, despite a report that Apple is testing Chinese memory ships;
AAPL: ex-dividend today; I believe it pays its next dividend August 13, 2026 -- later this week;
WNBA: time for the US government to step in to protect American citizens before someone gets hurt.
RBN Energy: has posted the rest of Friday's blog. Link here. "Is Europe on the brink of another natural gas crisis?
The
EU aims to have inventories 90% full by November 1 each year. The
target was established in 2022 in response to the Russian gas crisis and
the extremely low inventories of 2021. Inventories were drawn down very
low last winter (left half of orange line in Figure 2 below), well
below the 10-year average (blue line), and have been slow to build since
then (right half of orange line). Because of high costs and constraints
on the market, the EU decided in April to relax its November 1 target
to 80%.
Figure 2. European Gas Storage Inventories. Source: Bloomberg
European
storage inventory levels are slightly above where they were in 2021, as
Russia was cutting piped imports into Europe as tensions on the Ukraine
border were mounting. But injections have lagged this year and current
inventories are sitting near the bottom of the 10-year range
(gray-shaded area).
Much discussion and the final paragraphs:
And while total U.S. exports are much higher this year (dashed
red circle in Figure 4 above) than they were in 2022, the U.S. exported
just 54 cargoes to Europe in June, 17 fewer than June 2025 and the
lowest since August 2024. Exports to Europe ticked up modestly in July
and early August, but nowhere near enough to have the dramatic impact on
storage inventories that Europe needs.
So, the EU is
now essentially in a game of chicken, facing the very tough decision of
letting the situation play out (and risking the consequences of a
severe winter) or intervening (and driving already high prices even
higher). More U.S. LNG exports would certainly help, and cargoes will
increase as we get closer to winter. But in general, U.S. export
capacity has been somewhat hamstrung by delays at Golden Pass LNG and
maintenance at some existing terminals, most notably Freeport LNG. A far
larger factor would be the return of Qatari LNG, but the further into
injection season we get, the more perilous things look for this winter.
