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Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Mideast -- August 7, 2024

Locator: 48358MIDEAST.

Mideast: let's start the countdown --

  • Friday, August 2, 2024: nothing
  • Saturday, August 3, 2024: nothing
  • Sunday, August 4, 2204: folks said "tonight" would be the night; nothing
  • Monday, August 5, 2024: Trump says "tonight" will be the night. Nothing.
  • Tuesday, August 6, 2024: twitter devoid of any incident in the Mideast overnight.
  • Wednesday, August 7, 2024: Egypt tells airlines to avoid Tehran airspace Thursday morning (tomorrow morning) -- posted at August 7, 2024, 8:22 p.m. CDT, from the Drudge Report
    • President of Iran asks (begs?) Supreme Leader not to go to war.

Hourly updates via twitter for awhile.

9:00 p.m. CDT (4:55 a.m. August 8, 2024, Tehran): nothing. 

10:00 p.m. CDT: nothing.

11:00 p.m. CDT: nothing.

Midnight: nothing.

1:00 a.m. CDT, Thursday morning: nothing.

5:00 a.m. CDT, Thursday morning: nothing.

Five New Permits, One DUC Reported As Completed -- August 7, 2024

Locator: 48357B.

WTI: $75.46.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #41005 - #41009, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hunt (3); Slawson (2);
  • Fields: Ross (Mountrail); Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hunt Oil has permits for three wells, NWNE 10-156-90, Palermo (2) and Nichols-Trulson, 
      • to be sited 316 FNL and at 2021 FEL, 1991 FEL, and, 1961 FEL.
    • Slawson has permits for two Shad Rap Federal wells, 
      • both to be sited 949 FNL with one at 1252 FEL; and one at 1202 FEL.

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed

  • 40298, 436, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 4B,

This Certainly Doesn't Look Like "My Father's" Recession -- Disney Streaming Reports First Profit Ever; Lyft Reports First Profit Ever; And Global Aviation Taking Off -- August 7, 2024

Locator: 48356ARCHIVES.

Rate cut: do we even need a rate cut in Septermber?

DIS: recession? LOL. Link here.

GDP: yesterday's GDPNow number;

  • the "actual number" matters less than the direction, the trend
  • having said that, GDP estimate for 3Q24 up 40 basis points, or is 4 basis points?
  • whatever, from 2.5% to 2.9%

Aviation: no signs of recession here. Did "we" just get played this past week. If so, not complaining. Great, great buying opportunities.

********************************
Hyperscalers

WMB

  • corroborates my view on AI.
  • hyperscaler demand for natural gas unprecedented
  • first link:

****************************
Oh, Give Me A Break

Lyft stock tumbles.

Headline: misses estimates. Oh give me a break.

Link here. Sell-side analysts are playing us. As far as an investment goes, I could(n't) care less. It just corroborates my point -- when Lyft reports it's first-ever profit, that hardly looks like a recession.

Missed estimates on gross bookings:

  • bookings rose 17% but analysts were expectting $4.06 billion:
  • reported: $4.02 billion
  • missed by 40,000,000
  • = 0.985%

Analysts, apparently, overlooked the following:

  • earnings:
    • posted earnings of $5 million, or 1 cent / share --
      • "the ride-hailing company reported a surprise profit in the second quarter—the company’s first-ever quarterly profit on a GAAP basis—but issued guidance shy of analysts’ estimates."
  • revenue of $1.44 billion beat estimates of $1.39 billion

****************************
EV Charging: A Mess

First link here.

Second link here.

*****************************
The EV Narrative Continues

Miners aren't even stockpiling battery material cobalt any more.

Link here.

Remember all those stories China was cornering the market on rare earth metals; US wouldn't have enough. 

Now, apparently a glut.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- "I'm Usually Bullish And I'm Usually Right" -- Ed Yardeni -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48355B.

Google: yardeni I'm usually bullish and i'm usually right.

Wow, wow, wow: scrolling through my twitter feed -- incredible stories. I won't get them all posted, but some incredible stuff.

Top story of the day: US takes gold / bronze in men's 1500-meter race. YouTube: hocker.

Next up: Walz -- breath of fresh air. I'm having second thoughts -- Vance / Trump may have met their match winning hearts and minds of voters. We'll see.

Aviation: no signs of recession here. Did "we" just get played this past week. If so, not complaining. Great, great buying opportunities. 

Pet peeve -- selective reporting. Folks upset with Nancy Pelosi fail to follow through with rest of the story:


Ticker:

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.55. Up almost 2% overnight.

Thursday, August 8, 2024: 19 for the month; 75 for the quarter, 401 for the year
40236
, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 5-4-9H,
39602, conf, Hess, BL-iverson B-155-95-0807H-7,

Wednesday, August 7, 2024: 17for the month; 73 for the quarter, 399 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Gulf coast export terminals vie for NGL and crude oil market share. Archived.

Over the past decade, the only significant growth market for U.S. crude oil and NGLs has been exports, with over 90% departing from the Gulf Coast. Exports via Gulf of Mexico ports have surged from about 1 MMb/d in 2016 to over 6 MMb/d last year. Great news for PADD 3 export facilities, right? Well, it’s not that simple. The distribution of barrels has been wildly uneven, resulting in significant winners, forlorn losers, and everything in between. And export volumes are still ramping up, as is the competition among marine terminals for crude and NGL export market share, with far-reaching consequences for producers, midstreamers and exporters. This is one of the core themes at our upcoming NACON conference, which is all about PADD 3 North American Crude Oil & NGLs and scheduled for October 24 at the Royal Sonesta Hotel in Houston. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll delve into the highly competitive liquids export landscape, consider some of the important factors driving flows one way or the other, and — fair warning — slip in some subliminal advertising for the NACON event. 

It's a highly competitive market out there. For PADD 3 crude oil exports, Corpus Christi has dominated the scene for the past five years, but the Houston area is mounting a strong comeback. In fact, Houston could reclaim the lead if one of the deepwater offshore projects gets built. Today, Houston is out front in LPG exports, but Port Arthur/Nederland has been challenging this position — and Houston’s now fighting back with the announcement of a new Enterprise expansion on the Houston Ship Channel. For ethane, it sure looks like Port Arthur/Nederland is gaining the upper hand, with an Energy Transfer expansion and the new Enterprise Neches River flex facility in the works. Meanwhile, new greenfield proposals continue to be confidentially floated, potentially disrupting the market landscape.

What’s fueling this beehive of competitive activity? To make sense of what’s going on, let's start at the beginning. What exactly do we mean by PADD 3 exports? As shown in the stylized and simplified Figure 1 graphic of our PADD 3 model, crude oil and Y-grade NGLs flow into the region from the Rockies, the Midcontinent and the Bakken (green arrows). These barrels merge with PADD 3 production, primarily from the Permian and Eagle Ford (orange arrow), before being transported to export markets. About 90% of the growth in U.S. liquids production over the past decade moves along these corridors and is exported from one of five port locations: Corpus Christi, Freeport, Houston, Port Arthur/Nederland, and LOOP (blue arrows). NGLs are exported from the Texas ports, while crude oil is shipped from all ports except Freeport. However, there is a significant disparity in the distribution of barrels among these ports. We’ll get back to the magnitude and reasons for the unequal allocation of export volumes in a minute.

PADD 3 Crude and NGL Inflows Outflows

Figure 1. PADD 3 Crude and NGL Inflows/Outflows. Source: RBN 

News Overnight And Stories I'm Following -- August 7, 2024

Locator: 48354ARCHIVES.

GDPNow: wow, wow, wow!

  • now that the correction is over, we're back to talking soft landing
    • Jim Cramer right again, although I haven't seen his show since last Thursday
    • I haven't watched CNBC since last Wednesday, July 31, 2024
  • JPow is probably in a good mood this morning after seeing yesterday's GDPNow number;
    • the "actual number" matters less than the direction, the trend
    • having said that, GDP estimate for 3Q24 up 40 basis points, or is 4 basis points?
    • whatever, from 2.5% to 2.9%


France
: will likely be re-posted with some graphs; depends on my energy level

  • wheat production way down; set for worst wheat harvest since 1983, but at least the Seine is clean; LOL. Blame French wheat harvest on global warming;
  • North Dakota: wheat up; highest yield since tour records began in 1992; link here.
  • price of wheat here;
    • May 27, 2024: $715
    • yesterday: $548
      • price of bread should plummet. LOL.
    • if the one-year chart is bad, the five-year chart is horrendous.
      • tell me again why bread is so expensive
      • May 9, 2022: $1,166
      • yesterday: $548
      • inflation: transitory, very transitory;
    • growing up: I grew up on global headlines -- North Dakota is breadbasket of the world
    • and, then, of course, we had Iowa, and corn; price here;
        • October 19, 2023: $508
        • yesterday: plummeting; latest, $385
      • price of corn tortillas should plummet. LOL
      • if the one-year chart is bad, the five-year chart is horrendous.
      • tell me again why corn syrup is so expensive
        • April 18, 2022: $808
        • yesterday: $385
      • inflation: transitory, very transitory;
    • ticker DE:
      • down 20% in past year;
      • the five day correction didn't help; down 7% over five days
    • at least the price of diesel is cheaper than ever for the farmers; price here;
      • May 2022: $4.65
      • latest, 2024: $2.62
      • down 77% in two years (Biden-Harris economy)
    • inflation: transitory, very transitory;

    France: wheat harvest -- the narrative --

    • North Dakota production alone will offset losses in France, Russia, and Ukraine. Needs to be fact-checked. Waiting.

    WTI: up 1% overnight. Whoo-hoo.

    Saudi:

    • can't sustain dividend payout
    • actually it can, for quite some time; 
      • the Prince will simply bleed the country dry to fund pet projects
      • LIV golf; NOEM
    • free cash flow: $19 billion; dividend: $31 billion (annual)
    • will not cut dividend this year

    AI:

    • two camps -- hype; not hype
    • I'm in the second camp

    WMB:

    • corroborates my view on AI.
    • hyperscaler demand for natural gas unprecedented

    Rivian: the EV narrative continues. RIVN down over 7% in pre-market (5:41 a.m. CDT). 

    • VW, at $5 billion, invested almost as much in Rivian, and Biden-Harris invested in Intel ($8.5 billion)

    Siemens: the renewable energy narrative continues. 

    Iran: reconsidering. LOL. The US Navy seems to have put a damper on Iran's rhetoric.

    US politics:

    • don't underestimate the power of Israeli lobby
      • NY state and Trump
      • second member of the squad taken out; kinda sad, really. Not.
    • Walz: about as much excitement as avocado-on-toast at a Texas Rangers baseball game
      • Harris has a history of poor political choices, but how did the vetting process blow it
      • the other contenders must have had some real negative baggage that the media is not reporting
    • the usual playbook: presidential nominees don't want to be overshadowed by their VP selections
      • exhibit A: Trump / Vance

    Intel: still in the news