This Certainly Doesn't Look Like "My Father's" Recession -- Disney Streaming Reports First Profit Ever; Lyft Reports First Profit Ever; And Global Aviation Taking Off -- August 7, 2024

Locator: 48356ARCHIVES.

Rate cut: do we even need a rate cut in Septermber?

DIS: recession? LOL. Link here.

GDP: yesterday's GDPNow number;

• the "actual number" matters less than the direction, the trend
• having said that, GDP estimate for 3Q24 up 40 basis points, or is 4 basis points?
• whatever, from 2.5% to 2.9%
  

Aviation: no signs of recession here. Did "we" just get played this past week. If so, not complaining. Great, great buying opportunities.

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Hyperscalers

WMB: 

• corroborates my view on AI.
• hyperscaler demand for natural gas unprecedented
• first link:

• second link -- Dan saw the same story --

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Oh, Give Me A Break

Lyft stock tumbles.

Headline: misses estimates. Oh give me a break.

Link here. Sell-side analysts are playing us. As far as an investment goes, I could(n't) care less. It just corroborates my point -- when Lyft reports it's first-ever profit, that hardly looks like a recession.

Missed estimates on gross bookings:

• bookings rose 17% but analysts were expectting $4.06 billion:
• reported: $4.02 billion
• missed by 40,000,000
• = 0.985%

Analysts, apparently, overlooked the following:

• earnings:
• posted earnings of $5 million, or 1 cent / share --
• "the ride-hailing company reported a surprise profit in the second quarter—the company’s first-ever quarterly profit on a GAAP basis—but issued guidance shy of analysts’ estimates."
• revenue of $1.44 billion beat estimates of $1.39 billion

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EV Charging: A Mess

First link here.

Second link here.

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The EV Narrative Continues

Miners aren't even stockpiling battery material cobalt any more.

Link here.

Remember all those stories China was cornering the market on rare earth metals; US wouldn't have enough. 

Now, apparently a glut.