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Saturday, August 3, 2024

Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 1 -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48319ARCHIVES.

Re-posting to add several items. New items in bold red.

These are the stories that interest me most right now; links may eventually follow.

Buffett:

  • news and commentary -- August 4, 2024
  • selling stock; "overnight" slashed 50% of his AAPL holdings; sold off most of his BofA holdings
  • raising record amounts of cash -- and I mean record amounts of cash; and, no, he's not going to declare a special dividend, which some folks are suggesting. LOL.
  • no one knows why; thinking back on financial crisis of 2008

EVs

  • by now, "we" should be much farther along the S-shaped curve;
  • VW looking to close an EV manufacturing plant in Belgium; first auto manufacturing plant to close in Europe; lack of interest in EVs in Europe
  • American car companies can't afford to keep making EVs
  • Tesla talking a big story, but failing to meet milestones

Chips:

  • US computer chip manufacturing; loss of Intel could be catastrophic for US chip program
  • all eyes on security of Taiwan, where 95% of all global computer chips actually manufactured
  • there was a reason the US Federal government passed the "CHIPS Act."
  • Intel: not "too big to fail," but rather, "too important to fail."

Politics:

  • polls absolutely not looking good for Vance/Trump after "cats" and "hostage deal" comments
  • presumed bounces before election:
    • Trump has none
    • Kamala has two: a) after she names her VP; and, b) after the convention
  • we should know a lot more with regard to polling ten days from now, but right now some polls in swing states show huge lead by Harris
  • Kamala doing final interviews for VP this weekend; will announce NLT than next Friday, I'm thinking Monday
  • Trump underestimated the multi-racial demographic 
  • next president will get at least one US Supreme Court pick; possibly two

Mideast:

  • huge successes for Netanyahu the past two weeks; three top terrorists killed?
  • but the story is not yet over
  • major regional war about to break out 
    • US Navy returning in force; occurring in backdrop of US presidential election; Kamala Harris, not particularly strong with regard to Israel has to tread carefully, if not to lose Democrats in Detroit; Democrats in Pennsylvania 
    • France, Saudi Arabia: have told its citizens to get out of Lebanon now

Investing

  • if interested in equities, highly recommend following Evan over at twitter
  • market is only going to get more volatile
  • great, great buying opportunities for those with long horizons
  • investors will stay the course

Chevron

  • with regard to Hess / Guyana, Chevron in deep doo-doo
  • Chevron / Hess need to find another path

EVs

  • the narrative continues
  • VW will close first automotive plant in Europe; first ever automobile plant closed in modern era

AI

  • follow the money
  • follow the data centers
  • follow the chips
  • investors
    • stay focused: 
      • copper, fiber, chips (CPUs, FPUs, NPUs), 
      • data centers, hyperscalers, natural gas, utilities

INTC:

  • down as much as 20% after hours; lowest in a decade;
  • announced two-year warranty on all PCs affected by their fried CPUs; 
  • will cost INTC huge amounts of money (think Ford, warranty costs)
  • still hasn't released a fix for fried CPUs; fix not expected until mid-August

AAPL

  • it will take a week to sort out the takeaways from the most recent quarterly earnings
  • analysts don't get it: it's an "ecosystem
  • services revenue is now becoming the story; 
  • Apple, Inc. has more than 2.2 billion active and installed devices
  • does average Apple user spend $10 per month on Apple services?
    • warranties
    • AppleCare+ ($3/month)
    • cloud storage (minimum: 99 cents/month; next level, $2.99/month; as much as $69.99/month)
    • TV+ ($9.99 / month)
    • ads
    • Apple Music ($10.99 / month)
  • Apple's total net sales run about $400 billion annually
  • new record set this last quarter but Tim won't release actual numbers
  • Apple ecosystem, Apple users:
    • at a minimum: two mobile devices -- an iPhone and laptop
    • most common: three mobile devices -- an iPhone, laptop, and tablet or watch
    • rare, but not unusual: three mobile devices and a desktop computer
    • perhaps not as rare as folks think: four mobile devices and a desktop computer
    • each member older than ten years of age in a family has two mobile devices
  • need for speed
    • NVDA/AMD: moving at freeway speeds
    • AAPL: taking the frontage roads
    • INTC: in the ditch
  • Apple's installed user base:


The Fed
:

  • panelists on CNBC fit to be tied that JPow and Fed "lied." Not following the data;
  • had they stayed true to their word, would have announced a cut by now.
  • anger / frustration will soon be forgotten; eager to see how long the buying opportunity lasts;
  • September is a huge month for dividends; many folks hope buying opportunities last through the autumn;

Mad Money (CNBC): reruns --

  • current episode: S18 E731 -- trying to find the date -- sounds like yesterday -- Thursday, August 1, 2024
  • this is important because I missed today's episode; want to see the rerun tomorrow; eager to see what Cramer had to say about the debacle in today's (August 1, 2024) market
  • cutting retail prices may drive foot traffic (think McDonald's) but it will hit margins --> will hit earnings --> will hit Wall Street; this is not rocket science
  • Diageao YTD: -14.36% despite huge sales volume

Never quit reading

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Polls

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From Reddit Tonight

Link here.

The EV Narrative Continues -- Are We At The Tipping Point -- Is It Possible The Millennials Will Never See The EV As Mainstream Transportation? August 3, 2024

Locator: 48318EVS.

The EV narrative continues.

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The Book Page
 

Frank Lloyd Wright On The West Coast, Mark Anthony Wilson, c. 2014.

  • Chapter 1: A Prairie Among the Palms: The Stewart House, Santa Barbara County, 1909
  • Chapter 2: A Mayan Temple in Hollywood: The Barnsdall (Hollyhock) House, Los Angeles, 1917 - 21
  • Chapter 3: Pre-Columbian Monuments in Concrete: Four Southern California Houses, 1923 0 25
  • Chapter 4: From the Coast to the Desert: Other Southern California Houses
  • Chapter 5: A Unique Usonian: The Buehler House, Orinda, California, 1948 - 49 (Orinda, CA: just a few miles east of Oakland, CA)
  • Chapter 6: From Carmel to the Central Valley: Other Northern California Houses
  • Chapter 7: A Gift to These Golden Hills: The Marin County Civic Center, 1957 -69
  • Chapter 8: From Commerce to Religion: Other Public Buildings in California
  • Chapter 9: North by Northwest: Houses in Oregon and Washington
  • Appendix: List of Frank Lloyd Wright's West Coast Buildings Open to the Public

Photographs:

  • Millard House, Pasadena, CA, 1923 - 24, view from garden with guesthouse toward mainhouse.
  • Robie House
  • Marin County Civic Center

Usonian: Wright's name for his simple modular type of housing he promoted as being adaptable to varied environments and affordable for the average middle-class family in the Northwest (Washington state and Oregon). Usonian homes all built in the 1950s during the last decade of his life. 

Most of his California houses were also built in the Usonian style, between 1938 - 1958.

Taleisin: his home in Wisconsin.

Chicago's Hyde Park. Prairie School homes, the first modern homes.

"Breaking the box," page 10. 

Notes will be continued elsewhere.

The Robie House, 5757 South Woodlawn Avenue in Hyde Park.

Frank Lloyd Wright: 1867 - 1959.

Born just after the US Civil War; 48y/o during WWI; and 78 years old in 1945, WWII.

Whitefish, Montana, link here.


The Sahm Rule -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48317BUFFETT. 

Sahm rule: link here to wiki.

Link here

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Barron's

Link here.

Clickbait. Didn't say a thing.

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The Book Page

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Overlooking The Mediterranean

Sophia and her granddad. This may turn out to be one of my favorite pictures ever. Not sure why? The perspective? Perhaps. The framing? Perhaps.

Intel: Fast Money -- Last Night -- Friday -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48315INTC.

Tag: chip shortage;

Commentary

Later, 5:07 p.m. CDT: after a moment's thought, one almost gets the feeling analysts are concerned about the wrong thing. So many folks are concerned there will soon be a glut of chips, some folks calling chips, "commodities." I'm starting to get the feeling: there may be a much bigger problem. I think folks need to consider that the real concern might be a shortage of "high-end" chips. "Losing" Intel is a huge, huge deal.

Original Post 

US semiconductor ecosystem

Must-watch analysis of Intel if you missed it last night -- on CNBC "Fast Money." Many, many questions raised and many, many observations of which I was unaware. Must-watch. 

Not mentioned but something to think about. The question was raised: is there an American company making chips for personal computers, and, if so, who is it?

It's not hard to make the jump. Apple is designing the chips but TSM actually makes them. So that begs the question.

Where are AMD chips sourced?

Where are Nvidia chips sourced?



Re-Posting As A Reminder: Buffett's Thinking -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48314ECONOMY.

A reminder: from July 16, 2024 --

The Buffett indicator: if the indicator sounded an alarm five days ago, imagine how long and how loud the alarm is today! OMG! Link here. And if the Fed cuts rates, the indicator will only get worse. Buffett indicator here.

Now, the new stuff:

Evan is still the best. The firstest with the mostest. Link here.

BRK-B -- 2Q24:



Updating CompletionsThat Weren't Reported Back In 2020 Due To Covid-19 -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48313B.

Back in 2020 , due to Covid-19, a. lot of operators were not completing wells or reporting IPs. 

I've gone back to that year and started updating a few of those IPs.

First large group updated: the CLR Sefolosha wells in Epping oil field

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Biking

Just turned four years old.

CLR's Sefolosha And Sefolosha Federal Wells -- Epping -- Northeast Of Williston

Locator: 48312B.

The CLR Sefolosha Federal wells: 

  • 35262, drl/A-->F/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 10-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 48K 10/20; cum 170K; F; still no IP;
  • 35263, drl/A-->F/A,CLR, Sefolosha Federal 9-23H, Epping, t--; cum 84K 10/20; cum 245K 6/24; F; still no IP;
  • 35264, drl/A-->F/A,CLR, Sefolosha Federal 8-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 66K 10/20; cum 204K 6/24;; F; still no IP;
  • 35265, drl/A-->F/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 7-23H, Epping, t--; cum 89K 10/20; cum 258K 6/24; F; still no IP;
  • 35266, drl/A-->F/A,CLR, Sefolosha Federal 6-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 62K 10/20; cum 235K 6/24; F; still no IP;
  • 36485, SI/A-->F/A,, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 3-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 52K 10/20; cum 184K 6/24; F; still no IP;
  • 36487, SI/A-->F/A,CLR, Sefolosha Federal 5-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 38K 10/20; cum 200K 6/24; F; still no IP;
  • 22811, 457, CLR, Sefolosha 1-14H, Epping, t7/12; cum 295K 6/24; no significant halo effect; 

Area map:

FINAL IRS Regulations Issues On Inherited IRAs, RMDs, SECURE Act -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48310TAXES_IRS.

Link to Forbe's here. Still confusing but this is the best I've found to date explaining the rules. These rules affect very, very few folks.

WPX Skunk Creek Well Updated -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48309WPX.

First reported May 1, 2020.

Update.

These wells are tracked here but seldom updated. 

These are huge wells.

The well

  • 36502, drl/A-->2,263, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HW, South Fork, t1/20; cum 54K in 81 days; cum 418K 6/24;

Well of interest:

  • 18922, 472, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12H, South Fork, t6/11; cum 658K 6/24; subtle jump in production back in 2020 or thereabouts; 

Area of interest:

Apple's June, 2024, Earnings Report, Apple's 3Q24 -- No Longer All About iPhones; More And More All About Services -- Where Margins Probably Highest -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48308AAPL.

Link here

This is probably as good a "3rd quarter" as ever for Apple. 

I had completely missed this: AAPL market cap now exceeds $1.4 trillion.

When one looks at the following, one really begins to ask why BRK would trim its position?

Look at these data points:

  • installed base of active devices at all-time highs in all geographic segments
  • all-time revenue record for SERVICES
  • new June quarter records for BOTH revenue and EPS
  • iPad revenue: notable increase thanks to introduction of new iPad Pro and iPad Air models
    • most folks will wait for new iPad pending release of new software this autumn
  • an increase in the gross margin from 44.5% one year ago to 46.2% this year (may or may not reflect inflation)
  • revenue of $85.2 billion; up 5% from a year ago; may or may not reflect inflation
  • EPS: this quarter, $1.40 vs $1.26 a year ago (11% increase in EPS)
  • iPhone revenue now accounts for less than 50% of Apple's total revenue -- a longtime goal
  • services revenue now accounts for more than a quarter of Apple's total revenue; one would think services has a huge, huge margin
  • services revenue rose 14% in the quarter
    • think of all the iPhones being used to pay at the checkout counter
  • operating cash: $29 billion
  • returned over $32 billion to shareholders during the quarter

2.5 billion installed active devices (there's some question what is being measured -- "installed active devices vs active users" -- I would assume installed active devices, but with regard to users, maybe divide active devices by three?

  • each user has at least two Apple mobile devices: an iPhone and a laptop
  • a majority of users have three Apple mobile devices: an iPhone, a laptop, a tablet
  • some: four mobile devices, add the watch
  • some: drop the watch, add a desktop
  • some / most: pay monthly "service" fee for something
    • warranty
    • TV+
    • storage (as low as 99 cents / month)
 
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Global Installed Devices
 
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Ticker


 
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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.   

Personal Mileage -- 2011 Honda -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48307HONDA.

Tag: mileage personal 

Actually it's a 2012 model but I bought it in December, 2011, in Williston, ND. I needed a car to get back to Boston. I had planned to take the train but local / regional floods had "washed out" Amtrak's rails. 

Thirty-two (32) days on a 3/4th tank of gas.

Ten cents / mile.

Recently re-registered; required annual inspection; no major maintenance costs. 

Week 31: July 29, 2024 -- August 4, 2024

Locator: 48306TOPSTORIES.

Top story

  • huge hostage swap
  • Presidential politics: tt's Kamala Harris' race to lose; polls show she is far ahead nationally
    • she needs both Michigan and Pennsylvania to win
    • likely to pick PA governor for VP
  • Israel: has taken out several high-profile Hezbollah, Hamas leaders
    • Mideast on edge
    • WTI plummets
    • US Navy moving into Mideast

Biden:
  • looking stronger than ever; too late
    • huge hostage swap -- media suggests Biden was the godfather on this one

Top international non-energy story:

  • Olympics women's boxing has become a joke, Shakespearian tragedy
    • the end of women's boxing as we know it; will soon change venue to "transgender boxing)

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

  • US equity markets plummet
    • jobs report worse than expected
    • consensus: JPow and Fed waiting too long to make first cut
    • will now make larger cut than planned in September; but too little too late
  • Buffett sells half of his AAPL holdings
    • holds record amount of cash; of course, no explanation
      • by law, Buffett is required to hold large cash positions to "cover" insurance risks
      • hurricane season now in full force
      • preparing for recession?
      • building large cash position to take advantage of sell-off?
    • OXY, BNSF holdings look dismal
    • appears not to like tech

Top national energy story:

  • XOM-CVX-Hess drama to last at least two more years
  • WTI plummets
    • JPow, the Fed put US recession back on the table
    • most recent jobs report suggests US economy in deeper trouble than earlier data suggested
  • ISO-NE: declared Level 1 energy; grid not keeping up with demand
    • renewables providing very little support; overall -
      • renewables: 6%
      • wind: 24%

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

The market in a nutshell:

Buffett Sells 50% Of His AAPL -- 2Q24 -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48305BRK. 

A reminder: from July 16, 2024 --

The Buffett indicator: if the indicator sounded an alarm five days ago, imagine how long and how loud the alarm is today! OMG! Link here. And if the Fed cuts rates, the indicator will only get worse. Buffett indicator here.

Now, the new stuff:

Evan is still the best. The firstest with the mostest. Link here.

BRK-B -- 2Q24: