Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 1 -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48319ARCHIVES.

Re-posting to add several items. New items in bold red.

These are the stories that interest me most right now; links may eventually follow.

Buffett:

• news and commentary -- August 4, 2024
• selling stock; "overnight" slashed 50% of his AAPL holdings; sold off most of his BofA holdings
• raising record amounts of cash -- and I mean record amounts of cash; and, no, he's not going to declare a special dividend, which some folks are suggesting. LOL.
  
• no one knows why; thinking back on financial crisis of 2008

EVs: 

• by now, "we" should be much farther along the S-shaped curve;
• VW looking to close an EV manufacturing plant in Belgium; first auto manufacturing plant to close in Europe; lack of interest in EVs in Europe
• American car companies can't afford to keep making EVs
• Tesla talking a big story, but failing to meet milestones

Chips:

• US computer chip manufacturing; loss of Intel could be catastrophic for US chip program
• all eyes on security of Taiwan, where 95% of all global computer chips actually manufactured
• there was a reason the US Federal government passed the "CHIPS Act."
• Intel: not "too big to fail," but rather, "too important to fail."
  

Politics:

• polls absolutely not looking good for Vance/Trump after "cats" and "hostage deal" comments
• presumed bounces before election:
• Trump has none
• Kamala has two: a) after she names her VP; and, b) after the convention
  
• we should know a lot more with regard to polling ten days from now, but right now some polls in swing states show huge lead by Harris
  
• Kamala doing final interviews for VP this weekend; will announce NLT than next Friday, I'm thinking Monday
• Trump underestimated the multi-racial demographic 
• next president will get at least one US Supreme Court pick; possibly two
  

Mideast:

• huge successes for Netanyahu the past two weeks; three top terrorists killed?
• but the story is not yet over
• major regional war about to break out 
• US Navy returning in force; occurring in backdrop of US presidential election; Kamala Harris, not particularly strong with regard to Israel has to tread carefully, if not to lose Democrats in Detroit; Democrats in Pennsylvania 
• France, Saudi Arabia: have told its citizens to get out of Lebanon now
  

Investing

• if interested in equities, highly recommend following Evan over at twitter
• market is only going to get more volatile
• great, great buying opportunities for those with long horizons
• investors will stay the course

Chevron

• with regard to Hess / Guyana, Chevron in deep doo-doo
• Chevron / Hess need to find another path

EVs

• the narrative continues
• VW will close first automotive plant in Europe; first ever automobile plant closed in modern era

AI

• follow the money
• follow the data centers
• follow the chips
• investors
• stay focused: 
• copper, fiber, chips (CPUs, FPUs, NPUs), 
• data centers, hyperscalers, natural gas, utilities
  

INTC:

• down as much as 20% after hours; lowest in a decade;
• announced two-year warranty on all PCs affected by their fried CPUs; 
• will cost INTC huge amounts of money (think Ford, warranty costs)
  
• still hasn't released a fix for fried CPUs; fix not expected until mid-August

AAPL

• it will take a week to sort out the takeaways from the most recent quarterly earnings
• analysts don't get it: it's an "ecosystem" 
• services revenue is now becoming the story; 
  
• Apple, Inc. has more than 2.2 billion active and installed devices
  
• does average Apple user spend $10 per month on Apple services?
• warranties
• AppleCare+ ($3/month)
  
• cloud storage (minimum: 99 cents/month; next level, $2.99/month; as much as $69.99/month)
  
• TV+ ($9.99 / month)
  
• ads
• Apple Music ($10.99 / month)
  
• Apple's total net sales run about $400 billion annually
  
• new record set this last quarter but Tim won't release actual numbers
• Apple ecosystem, Apple users:
• at a minimum: two mobile devices -- an iPhone and laptop
• most common: three mobile devices -- an iPhone, laptop, and tablet or watch
• rare, but not unusual: three mobile devices and a desktop computer
  
• perhaps not as rare as folks think: four mobile devices and a desktop computer
  
• each member older than ten years of age in a family has two mobile devices
  
• need for speed
• NVDA/AMD: moving at freeway speeds
• AAPL: taking the frontage roads
• INTC: in the ditch

• Apple's installed user base:

The Fed:

• panelists on CNBC fit to be tied that JPow and Fed "lied." Not following the data;
• had they stayed true to their word, would have announced a cut by now.
• anger / frustration will soon be forgotten; eager to see how long the buying opportunity lasts;
• September is a huge month for dividends; many folks hope buying opportunities last through the autumn;

Mad Money (CNBC): reruns --

• current episode: S18 E731 -- trying to find the date -- sounds like yesterday -- Thursday, August 1, 2024
• this is important because I missed today's episode; want to see the rerun tomorrow; eager to see what Cramer had to say about the debacle in today's (August 1, 2024) market
• cutting retail prices may drive foot traffic (think McDonald's) but it will hit margins --> will hit earnings --> will hit Wall Street; this is not rocket science
• Diageao YTD: -14.36% despite huge sales volume

Never quit reading. 

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Polls

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From Reddit Tonight

Link here.