Eight New Permits; Six BR Permits Canceled; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48237B.

WTI: $78.32.

Active rigs: 39.

Eight new permits, #40960 - #40967, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill (4), XTO (3), Hess
• Fields: Siverston (McKenzie), Hofflund (McKenzie), Big Butte (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has a permit for an EN-Rohde well, lot 2, section 3-156-94, 
• to be sited 642 FNL and 1876 FEL;
• XTO has permits for three HBU Sakakawea Federal wells, NWSW 35-145-95;
• to be sited at 1770 FSL, 474 FWL; 1775 FSL, 504 FWL; and, 1780 FSL and 533 FWL;
• Grayson Mill has permits for four Costanza wells, NENE 26-150-98, 
• to be between 841 FNL and 918 FNL; and, between 1058 FEL and 1012 FEL

Six BR permits canceled:

• BR: six Tilton permits canceled, Dunn County

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36136, 494, Oasis, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36C, Mountrail,
• 36138, 643, Oasis, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36D, Mountrail,
• 38159, 0, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17MBH, McKenzie County,
• 40114, 1,491, CLR, Lundberg Federal 8-8HSL1, Dunn County,
• 40244, 846, Whiting, Sanish Bay 5292 22-7 9BX, Mountrail County

GM Reveals New Chevy Corvette -- Not An EV -- 1,000+ HP, Record Top Speed -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48236EVS.

The EV narrative continues.

Link here. 

Following The Data -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48235ECON.

Link here. Comments are amazing.

Is anyone paying attention? 51 months of expansion and a Goldilocks economy, exactly overlaps the Biden administration.

If one follows the data, it seems that Biden and JPow have done one heck of a great job. 

The preceding 128 months (2009 - 2020) were mostly Barack Obama's.

"Everyone" it seems "demands" that the Fed remain true to its word -- to follow the data. And,  yet, it appears, individual investors often don't follow the data at all. Many "investors" seem to confuse politics with investing. 

Even more interesting, 

• June, 2009 - June, 2024: a bull market the entire time, 51 weeks + 128 weeks = 179 weeks!  Longest bull market since WWII. With one "break" between February 2020 and April 2020 ---> one single month. 
• If folks recall, March, 2020, was the first month of the lockdown.  
• maybe a graph will help --
  

Of the 15-year (180-month) bull run, all but four years (48 months) "belong" to Obama (96 months) / Biden (48 months).

And look at that GDP growth under Biden vs under Obama / Trump (unfortunately not apple-to-apple comparison because of the huge Covid effect.

Note: I often make simple arithmetic mistakes. If I've made any such mistakes, the argument still holds -- exhibit A? The graph.

Now, another observation.

See the graph below.

I would love to see folks explain the factors that moved the investing period B from the investing period A.

And then the factors that drove the investing period C compared to the flat investing period B, and also flat in period A. 

Outside of a "Black Swan" event (to include a geopolitical event), the AI revolution suggests to me that investing period C will continue. 

Investing period B was entirely George Bush and Dick Cheney.

Investing period A was Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Jimmy Carter was flat, and it was Ronald Reagan's terms that moved us from "A" to "B."

Legacy Fund -- July, 2024, Deposits

Locator: 48234B.

Monthly deposits.

Legacy Fund data here. 

North Dakota budget: probably easiest to read is at Ballotpedia.

North Dakota state office of management and budget.

Deposits:

• June, 2024: 74,815,226.02
• July, 2024: 66,847,396.27
  
• delta: -7,967,829.75
• percent decrease, m/m: a 10.7% decrease, month/month
  

Open AI Announces SearchGPT -- I've Been Waiting -- Apple To Follow -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48233TECH.

Link here.

AI: companies may/might/could overspend on AI, but they cannot afford to under-spend. This revolution is not over.

Border Czar -- It Seems A Lot Of Folks Have Forgotten -- Especially Over At X -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48232SOUTHERNSURGE.

A reminder, link here:

Another reminder, link here:

***************************
The Great Movie Franchises

Some of the few:

• Clint Eastwood's spaghetti westerns, music.
• Lord of the Rings.
• Star Wars.
• James Bond, music.
• Raiders of the Lost Ark and sequels.

More at wiki.

It seems a lot of investors who know little about movies know everything about these franchises, and yet a lot of investors can't list the top plays / top players in AI. Just saying.

Risk Of Recession -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48231GDP. 

Reality: most recent GDP

According to the pundits, we should be in a deep recession by now -- but --

What We Were Thinking

As far back as 2022, link here: wow, was I wrong -- I must have been drinking the Kool-Aid --

Re-posting from 2019.

One of my pet peeves is all the talk over the years about the risk of recession. We haven't heard that -- "risk of recession" in quite some time -- thank goodness -- but I'm sure it will pop up again, sooner or later.

But not today.

Growth in GDP? MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED!!

Wow, talk about a Goldilocks economy.

From The WSJ:

*****************
Historic 

Link here. Practically as good as it gets.

"Everyone" it seems "demands" that the Fed remain true to its word -- to follow the data. And,  yet, it appears, individual investors often don't follow the data at all. Many "investors" seem to confuse politics with investing.

Is anyone paying attention? 51 months of expansion and a Goldilocks economy, exactly overlaps the Biden administration.

Back To The Bakken -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48232OPEC. 

OPEC's oil reserves: lower than officially reported. Rystad Energy.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.23.

Friday, July 26, 2024: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 370 for the year
40415, conf, CLR, Chase 6-19HSL,
40321, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 22-7 8B,

Thursday, July 25, 2024: 42 for the month; 42 for the quarter, 368 for the year
40271, conf, CLR, Sloan 3-18HSL,
40173, conf, Slawson, Cyclone 2-21-16H,

RBN Energy: three-pronged plan to refill SPR comes with challenges beyond price. Archived.

The Biden administration has been on a mission for more than a year to restock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which was tapped at unprecedented levels in an effort to keep crude oil and refined product prices under control after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 disrupted energy flows globally. But if returning all of the released 180 MMbbl and replenishing the SPR to pre-war levels was the plan, they’ve got a long way to go. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the steps the administration has taken to replenish the reserve and the headwinds it faces.

The SPR is the largest emergency crude stockpile in the world. It was first proposed in the 1940s, but not established until 1975 and the first barrels weren’t added until 1977, four years after Arab members of producer cartel OPEC cut off oil flows to the U.S. after it provided aid to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. At that point, the U.S. was heavily dependent on Middle East crude for use at domestic refineries. (Many still remember idling in their cars in long lines at gas stations in hopes of getting a few gallons). The reserve was aimed at bolstering energy security and meeting the nation’s pledges with the then three-year-old International Energy Agency (IEA). According to a 1974 agreement, IEA members must hold stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports, based on the previous year’s annual average. U.S. net imports averaged 2.42 MMb/d in 2023, so the total required in storage would be 217.8 MMbbl, or 58% of the SPR’s current inventory (more on that in a bit).

Commentary --- What Interests Me Now -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48231COMMENTARY. 

The big stories that I am following and won't be able to post everything. There is just too much stuff happening.

California Supreme Court: Uber, Lyft win.

Under-reported investing story:

• the yen -- could be a Black Swan event
• Sara Eisen's expertise: currency markets
  

Presidential politics: 

• Trump: two bumps in the polls
• after the assassination attempt -- done
• picking JD Vance -- done
• Harris: three bumps in the polls
• after Biden withdraws -- done
• first national poll after this -- Harris, 44%; Trump, 42%
• but this is the big story: 44 + 42 = 86
• 14% of the electorate waiting to see Harris' VP pick
  
• when she names her VP (it now looks like a former astronaut) -- yet to come
• at / after the Democratic convention -- yet to come

Presidential politics:

• if Trump loses
• the turning point: pick of JD Vance as his running mate
• if Harris loses
• the turning point: her speech at the convention

The EV narrative

Three biggest lies:

• Tesla's robotaxi coming out in 2025 (next year)
• Stellantis marketing a $25,000 Jeep (ever)
• Ford making money on "small" EVs
  

The market:

• as usual, during periods of high volatility -- I pretty much ignore
• exception:
• Cramer's first hour
• Halftime Report

The economy:

• the GDP numbers today

Energy:

• my interest is waning right now;
• won't get excited until WTI reverses

Apple

• always exciting

Inflation:

• folks need to listen to Josh Brown's comments on "Halftime Report" today
• strong GDP does not equal inflation
• only two things driving "sticky" inflation right now: rent and labor
• rent inflation has been broken (though rent is still a problem)
• labor: unemployment numbers worsening -- if Fed is truly data dependent, Fed would "surprise" with an early cut
• but there's no urgency to a rate cut
• Fed rate cut in July: won't happen but there are a fair number of analysts suggesting it could happen
• my hunch: no analyst would be surprised if there was a July cut
  

Ford Lost $132,000 For Each EV It "Sold" -- Aslso Suprise "Warranty Expenses" — July 25, 2024

Locator: 48230EVS. 

The EV narrative continues.

********************************
Fool Me Once, Shame On You,
Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me

Link here. 

STELLANTIS 

Link here.

These are the folks who have told us they will introduce a sub-$30K EV.

FORD

From Morningstar:

InsideEVS: a must-read. Need to archive. EVs are tracked and archived here.

From CNN.

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.

Ford, like most automakers, has announced plans to shift from traditional gas-powered vehicles to EVs in coming years. But it is the only traditional automaker to break out results of its retail EV sales. And the results it reported Wednesday show another sign of the profit pressures on the EV business at Ford and other automakers.

The EV unit, which Ford calls Model e, sold 10,000 vehicles in the quarter, down 20% from the number it sold a year earlier. And its revenue plunged 84% to about $100 million, which Ford attributed mostly to price cuts for EVs across the industry. That resulted in the $1.3 billion loss before interest and taxes (EBIT), and the massive per-vehicle loss in the Model e unit.

Comment: losing $132,000 / car at this point in the cycle / on the S-shaped curve is absolutely amazing.

And what's this "warranty surprise?" Are there two stories here? EVs and "warranties"? 

Apparently there are two stories.

Here's the "warranty surprise" story, link here.

***********************
Posted Earlier

Ford: EVs

• InsideEVs, published last night, before earnings reported; link here.
• the EV narrative continues

Ford: top story at CNBC this morning (after the GDP story).

• F plunges after 2Q24 earnings miss
• F: down 13.9% (24-hour change); now at open, down 17%;
  
• down 1.89
• trading at $11.78
• Quality #1: unexpected warranty losses.
• I don't think I've heard more negative comments by Cramer on F first hour
• exception: one company last week, which I've now forgotten
• Cramer: "sometimes you just get had" -- with regard to his faith in Farley
• losing dollars on EVs:
• Farley says still a great report for Ford, and then asked on earnings call -- if great report, and F dropping, why isn't F announcing buybacks -- Farley's "cringe" answer -- we have better ways to deploy our capital (than buy our own stock)

This is the chart of the day for CNBC.

****************

Disclaimer Briefly
Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• The audience for my investment-related posts: for the grandchildren who will inherit the estate and will benefit by knowing my strategy in putting that estate together. My investment-related posts are not for others. But it's the easiest way to keep my grandchildren in the loop.
  
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

 

California — Shift On Homeless Encampments — Portland Next? July 25, 2024

Locator: 48229CALIFORNIA. 

Link here.

From the linked article:

Governor Gavin Newsom ordered California state officials on Thursday to begin dismantling thousands of homeless encampments, the nation’s most sweeping response to a recent Supreme Court ruling that gave governments greater authority to remove homeless people from their streets.

Homeless encampments have vexed California, where housing costs are among the nation’s highest, more than any other state. An estimated 180,000 people were homeless last year in California, and most of them were unsheltered.

Unlike New York City, most jurisdictions in California do not guarantee a right to housing.

DFW Growth -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48228DFW. 

DFW, link here:

 

*****************
Ranking By Passenger Loadings 

Link here. 

Rankings by passenger volume:

• Atlanta, GA: Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta Internation Airport
• Dubai Interational Airport
• DFW
• Heathrow London
• Tokyo Haneda

Cramer First Hour -- WTI Still Below $77 -- July 25, 2024 -- IN PROGRESS

Locator: 48227INV. 

Disclaimer:

• usual disclaimer applies. Posted quickly; there will be typographical and content errors on this page.
• not investment advice.
• facts, factoids, opinions interspersed; not pointed out
• mostly comments from Cramer. Comments all paraphrased.
• not intended for readers; posted for archives for family members.
  

GDP: great report.

• link here.
• link here.
• CNBC.
• "considerably stronger than expected" -- incredible concerning the headwinds, the tight Fed, high interest rates, all the pundit negativity

Price cuts: the snowball is rolling downhill and gaining speed. Great news for JPow.

Ford: EVs

• InsideEVs, published last night, before earnings reported; link here.
• the EV narrative continues

Ford: top story at CNBC this morning (after the GDP story).

• will have stand-alone post later
• F plunges after 2Q24 earnings miss
• F: down 13.9% (24-hour change); now at open, down 17%;
  
• down 1.89
• trading at $11.78
• Quality #1: unexpected warranty losses
• I don't think I've heard more negative comments by Cramer on F first hour
• exception: one company last week, which I've now forgotten
• Cramer: "sometimes you just get had" -- with regard to his faith in Farley
• losing dollars on EVs:
• Farley says still a great report for Ford, and then asked on earnings call -- if great report, and F dropping, why isn't F announcing buybacks -- Farley's "cringe" answer -- we have better ways to deploy our capital (than buy our own stock)

In correction territory: mega-cap tech (the Magnificent 7).

The market reversal: historic! Not seen in decades.

Fed cut: chatter is now 50 basis points in September, not 25. If the Fed were to cut 50 points, it would mean economy is in deep trouble. 

• Cramer: unlikely to happen; would send absolutely wrong message

NBA:

• WBD failed, will now sue the NBA
• another Amazon win.
• had long been a TNT partnership 
• link here.
  

ServiceNow (NOW): up 7%; long interview with new CEO

• I know nothing about this company
• CEO mentioned the strong relationship with Nvidia
  

Southwest Airlines:

• will end 50-year history of "open seating"
• will now move to assigned seating, premium seat ($$$)
• joins the rest of the industry
• big bucks to be made

Edward Lifesciences absolutely crushed: down 25% at the open.

• their "one" product is not selling as well as they had expected

Cramer: consumers are fed up with high prices -- particularly with "French fries" -- now a metonym;

Cramer's "Mad Dash":

• IBM: up 4.5% on earnings; executed very, very well
• worst week since May
• sell in June, go away;

****************

Disclaimer Briefly
Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• The audience for my investment-related posts: for the grandchildren who will inherit the estate and will benefit by knowing my strategy in putting that estate together. My investment-related posts are not for others. But it's the easiest way to keep my grandchildren in the loop.
  
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.