Absolutely Fascinating, This Market -- How Can One Not Be Excited? June 4, 2024

Locator: 48058INV.

It seems to be a trader's market but, wow, what great opportunities for investors, if one stays the course. 

Here we go, and this is just the beginning.

Iron Oil Prospects In The Parshall Oil Field, The Bakken -- June 4, 2024

Locator: 48057B.

Some big units, in. relatively unexplored area. It will be interesting how Iron Oil does with "new" technology and lessons learned in the Bakken, since 2000 / 2007.

From the June, 2024, hearing dockets:

Case 30989, Iron Oil, Parshall-Bakken, to establish six 1920-acre units, four horizontal wells in each unit (24 wells); establish three 1920-acre unit, four wells on each unit (12 wells); Mountrail County;

This is a case, not a permit.

The maps: three of the six 1920-acre units, in T154N R89W:

The wells and permits of interest:

• 16840, 277, Proven Petroleum, Bergstrom Family trsut 26 1-H, Parshall, t1/08; cum 84K 4/24;
• 19309, 100, Hunt, McAlmond 1-35-26H 1, Parshall, t1/11; cum 66K 4/24;
• 39288, conf, Hunt, Oakland 154-89-18 SWD 1, Parshall,
• 40033, conf, Hunt, Shell 153-89-5-8H 1, Parshall,
• 40634, conf, Hunt, Oakland 154-89-30-19H-1, Parshall,

There's A Meme Out There That Daughter Wells Don't Produce As Well As Parent Wells In Shale Plays -- June 4, 2024

Locator: 48056B.

This is not necessarily the norm in the Bakken (well, actually it is) but it's easy to find examples.

See the parent well here.

This is one of the daughter wells drilled in 2021, just a couple of years ago.

• 38046, loc/A, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H, Big Bend, t1/22; cum 324K 4/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	6599	6504	4820	6103	5174	779
BAKKEN	3-2024	30	8575	8900	5447	7348	5463	1737
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	10370	10060	6441	8822	6192	2485
BAKKEN	1-2024	22	8346	9023	4881	7039	5792	1139
BAKKEN	12-2023	25	10632	10065	6317	8854	5959	2768
BAKKEN	11-2023	21	8403	8406	4293	7045	4264	2675
BAKKEN	10-2023	21	3086	3730	4437	2638	1978	556
BAKKEN	9-2023	27	11214	10327	7664	9454	6240	3079
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	318	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	17	8432	8939	6966	6800	3131	3583
BAKKEN	4-2023	5	2144	1390	2021	1705	465	1215
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	2	1122	1909	613	877	0	865
BAKKEN	12-2022	19	7516	7090	4189	5924	1436	4392
BAKKEN	11-2022	13	5578	5357	6008	4471	2303	2105
BAKKEN	10-2022	29	17809	17836	12811	14416	6361	7911
BAKKEN	9-2022	28	22348	22908	8663	18186	5996	12052
BAKKEN	8-2022	26	24321	23914	10530	19828	3539	16159
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	29717	29684	13783	24290	2633	21502
BAKKEN	6-2022	29	29165	29605	17230	23797	2200	21451
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	30474	30027	18419	24705	3641	20912
BAKKEN	4-2022	19	20288	20322	16223	16355	3288	12972
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	40228	40335	41682	32461	4770	27543
BAKKEN	2-2022	12	17285	17083	19227	13878	0	13817
BAKKEN	1-2022	1	715	0	0	575	0	570
BAKKEN	12-2021	1	33	0	0	16	0	11

Updating An Incredible Slawson Well Drilled Back In 2011 -- Still A Big Producer -- June 4, 2024

Locator: 48055B.

NDIC still shows this well as "F" without a pump.

The well:

• 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, Van Hook, Bakken, t1/11; cum 491K 4/18; off line while other Muskrat Federal wells being fracked; cum 614K 4/21; cum 710K 4/24; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	1969	1902	1215	2448	2273	25
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	2004	2097	1351	2575	2346	74
BAKKEN	2-2024	22	1488	1363	938	1368	1164	94
BAKKEN	1-2024	31	2143	2687	1581	1627	1202	270
BAKKEN	12-2023	30	2502	2157	1842	2210	1976	83
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	2465	2520	2293	2639	2476	13
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	2601	2941	1709	2966	2628	183
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	2528	2478	1895	2803	2654	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	2649	2549	2117	3007	2852	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	30	2614	2469	2139	3194	3042	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	2543	2518	3301	3015	2865	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	23	1992	1827	3450	1506	1324	67
BAKKEN	4-2023	27	2804	3192	2772	2663	2412	116

 Back in 2014:

BAKKEN	12-2014	31	4259	4233	1326	2931	2635	141
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	5124	4976	1586	2957	2807	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	5367	5412	1646	3664	2679	830
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	5580	5808	1833	3802	3477	175
BAKKEN	8-2014	25	3530	4053	1347	2330	2205	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	16	2652	2065	936	1689	1609	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	29	4873	5033	1481	3702	3557	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	5700	5672	1772	4256	4101	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	5669	5674	1698	3473	3323	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	6418	6660	1895	4215	4060	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	6410	6155	1855	4212	4072	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	7647	8073	2332	5211	5056	0

Back in 2012:

BAKKEN	12-2012	31	4378	3903	1201	666	356	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	23	4642	4514	1287	1847	1617	0
BAKKEN	10-2012	26	6818	6929	1938	2365	2105	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	9996	10244	2673	6894	6594	0
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	10413	11321	2957	6240	5930	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	11069	10696	2901	7605	7295	0
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	10524	9984	2940	7414	7114	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	13563	13545	3667	9603	9293	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	28	12549	12048	4508	7040	6760	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	26	1899	2401	408	461	201	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	26	4444	5043	1480	2596	2336	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	9669	9653	2608	6224	5914	0

First four months of production:

BAKKEN	5-2011	29	14913	14797	3741	9617	9327	0
BAKKEN	4-2011	27	10139	9527	2024	6405	5403	1002
BAKKEN	3-2011	29	15441	15836	4296	9843	197	9646
BAKKEN	2-2011	28	27410	25429	10153	12223	0	12223
BAKKEN	1-2011	22	13387	12840	7694	220	0	0

Add Nashville to America's Great Cities - June 4, 2024

Locator: 48054US.

Link here.

Elon Musk, xAI, Tesla And Nvidia -- June 4. 2024

Locator: 48053EVS.

This is probably more serious than I'm making it out to be, but for me this is simply airing dirty laundry and / or family squabbling. By the way, is it possible this connects the new "X" policy "dot"? Fascinating.

On the other hand, it helps me keep up with the AI jargon ... and also helps me to keep up with the AI revolution.

Link here. 

Headline:

I think the third "bullet" is conjecture, and not "measurable."

From the linked article:

Elon Musk says he can grow Tesla into “a leader in AI & robotics,” an ambition that he’s said will require a lot of pricey processors from Nvidia to build up its infrastructure.

On Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call in April, Musk said the electric vehicle company will increase the number of active H100s — Nvidia’s flagship artificial intelligence chip — from 35,000 to 85,000 by the end of this year. He also wrote in a post on X a few days later that Tesla would spend $10 billion this year “in combined training and inference AI.”

But emails written by Nvidia senior staff and widely shared inside the company suggest that Musk presented an exaggerated picture of Tesla’s procurement to shareholders. Correspondence from Nvidia staffers also indicates that Musk diverted a sizable shipment of AI processors that had been reserved for Tesla to his social media company X, formerly known as Twitter.

Tesla shares slipped as much as 1% on the news Tuesday morning.

By ordering Nvidia to let privately held X jump the line ahead of Tesla, Musk pushed back the automaker’s receipt of more than $500 million in graphics processing units, or GPUs, by months, likely adding to delays in setting up the supercomputers Tesla says it needs to develop autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.

“Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipped H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead,” an Nvidia memo from December said. “In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla.”

A more recent Nvidia email, from late April, said Musk’s comment on the first-quarter Tesla call “conflicts with bookings” and that his April post on X about $10 billion in AI spending also “conflicts with bookings and FY 2025 forecasts.” The email referenced news about Tesla’s ongoing, drastic layoffs and warned that head-count reductions could cause further delays with an “H100 project” at Tesla’s Texas Gigafactory.

The new information from the emails, read by CNBC, highlights an escalating conflict between Musk and some agitated Tesla shareholders who question whether the billionaire CEO is fulfilling his obligations to Tesla while also running a collection of other companies that require his attention, resources and hefty amounts of capital.

 It doesn't take a rocket scientist to extrapolate what's going on in the AI world.

My Favortie Subscription: The Atlantic -- 80 Years Ago -- June 4, 2024

Locator: 48052BOOKS.

The Atlantic. 

Another article on WWII.

It begins:

For most Americans, D-Day remains the most famous battle of World War II. It was not the end of the war against Nazism. At most, it was the beginning of the end. Yet it continues to resonate 80 years later, and not just because it led to Hitler’s defeat. It also signaled the collapse of the European empires and the birth of an American superpower that promised to dedicate its foreign policy to decolonization, democracy, and human rights, rather than its own imperial prestige.

It is easy to forget what a radical break this was. The term superpower was coined in 1944 to describe the anticipated world order that would emerge after the war. Only the British empire was expected to survive as the standard-bearer of imperialism, alongside two very different superpower peers: the Soviet Union and the United States. Within weeks of D-Day, however, the British found themselves suddenly and irrevocably overruled by their former colony.

That result was hardly inevitable. When the British and the Americans formally allied in December 1941, the British empire was unquestionably the senior partner in the relationship. It covered a fifth of the world’s landmass and claimed a quarter of its people. It dominated the air, sea, and financial channels on which most global commerce depended. And the Royal Navy maintained its preeminence, with ports of call on every continent, including Antarctica.

The United States, by contrast, was more of a common market than a nation-state. Its tendency toward isolationism has always been overstated. But its major foreign-policy initiatives had been largely confined to the Western Hemisphere and an almost random collection of colonies (carefully called “territories”), whose strategic significance was—at best—a point of national ambivalence.

In the two years after Pearl Harbor, the British largely dictated the alliance’s strategic direction. In Europe, American proposals to take the fight directly to Germany by invading France were tabled in favor of British initiatives, which had the not-incidental benefit of expanding Britain’s imperial reach across the Mediterranean and containing the Soviet Union (while always ensuring that the Russians had enough support to keep three-quarters of Germany’s army engaged on the Eastern Front).

Things changed, however, in November 1943, when Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt held a summit in Cairo. The British again sought to postpone the invasion of France in favor of further operations in the Mediterranean. The debate quickly grew acrimonious. At one point, Churchill refused to concede on his empire’s desire to capture the Italian island of Rhodes. George Marshall, the usually stoic U.S. Army chief of staff, shouted at the prime minister, “Not one American is going to die on that goddamned beach!” Another session was forced to end abruptly after Marshall and his British counterpart, Sir Alan Brooke, nearly came to blows.

With the fate of the free world hanging in the balance, a roomful of 60-year-old men nearly broke out into a brawl because by November 1943, America had changed. It was producing more than twice as many planes and seven times as many ships as the whole British empire. British debt, meanwhile, had ballooned to nearly twice the size of its economy. Most of that debt was owed to the United States, which leveraged its position as Britain’s largest creditor to gain access to outposts across the British empire, from which it built an extraordinary global logistics network of its own.

My hunch: Marjorie Taylor Greene and 46 of her GOP supporters would not have supported FDR had they been around then. They would have supported US Army chief of staff George Marshall.

Just my opinion.

Author of the article:

Michel Paradis is a law professor at Columbia Law School and the author of The Light of Battle: Eisenhower, D-Day, and the Birth of the American Superpower. Available as of today, June 4, 2024:

Why is the publication date of this book June 4th and not June 6th?

I haven't read / bought a book on US military history in "ages"; maybe it's time.

My Favorite Chart -- It's Getting Interesting -- Four New Permits -- June 4, 2024

Locator: 48051B.

My favorite chart, link here:

Now this, today.

Might we see a reversal in "my favorite chart" sometime this summer? It peaked a couple of months ago and started reversing. Might it reverse again?

Market today: eked out "green" in three major indices.

Next big thing: what I would like to see -- a "crowd-source" app tracking new car sales and what folks actually paid, in real time.

*********************************

Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.25.

Active rigs: 38.

Four new permits, #40807 - #30810:

• Operators: Hess (2), Oasis (2):
• Fields: Ellsworth (McKenzie); Bonetrail (Williams)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for two wells, a BW-Hagen well, NWNE 15-149-100; and an EN-Uran A well, SWSW 10-154-93, 
• the first to be sited 753 FNL and 2171 FEL, and the second to be sited 391 FSL and 497 FWL;
• Oasis has permits for two Wolfman wells, SWSE 15-156-102, 
• both to be sited 2575/574 FEL with one at 388 FSL and one at 355 FSL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35216, 3,175, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5A, North Fork, minimal production reported;
• 40192, 813, Whiting, Tri D Ranch 5696 13-18 6BX, Dollar Joe, nopd

Crowdstrike Volatile After Hours -- Finally Surges — Earnings Results — June 4, 2024

Locator: 48050TECH.

Crowdstrike beats. Price recovers after hours; then surges. CNBC was smart to delay comments for a few minutes before reporting.

HPE up almost 10 percent after earnings reported.

INTC near 12-month low. Has a lot riding on foundry business. Apollo takes 49% stake in Intel Ireland foundry. Interesting.

10-year Treasury breaks below 4.35% again.

$3-Trillion Watch -- Update -- June 4, 2024

Locator: 48049AAPL.

Apple is playing the "long game." I'm thinking about the news that came out of Spotify today. Raising its prices again, twice in one year. Apple is now significantly less expensive than Spotify.

***************************

For The Archives

 

Apple Books: link here.

 

*******************
$3-Trillion Watch

 

June 4, 2024:

***********************
Original Post

We talked about this (the following) over the weekend. 

Posting it for the archives, leading up to WWDC next week.

AAPL needs to hit $195.33 to hit $3-trillion market cap again.

• (195.33-194.08) / 194.08 = 0.00644 = 0.644% to get to $3-trillion market cap.
• (200 - 194.08) / 194.08 = 0.0305 = 3.05% to get to $200 / share.

Grapevine Lake Water Level Now Exceeds The 100-Year Flood Recorded In 2019 -- June 4, 2024

Locator: 48048TEXAS.

Observation: this is what amazes me. It's not that the earth has water -- absolutely critical for life -- but that life has so much water. Earth is not a rocky planet, it's a water planet. It's a blue marble.  

Two 100-year floods in five years? Whatever happened to all drought predicted by "global warming / climate change" models? 

They must have learned / responded after 2019; this year, despite record levels, nothing serious for the city of Grapevine (yet).

In the graphic below, the only significant difference I see between 2019 and 2024, is that in 2019, the rate of increase in the water level was faster -- perhaps that's the difference.

Link here.

Gen Z: The Taylor Swift Generation. Is Gen A About To Become The Taylor Swift Eras Tour Generation? June 4, 2024

Locator: 48047DIVAS.

This all started with this post.

Now, today, the update: "She dominates our age!" How Taylor Swift became the greatest show on earth. Link to The [London] Guardian. 

Someday I may have to subscribe to The [London] Guardian. 

Having said all that, Taylor Swift is not yet in Cher's universe. IYKYK. Taylor Swift is 34 years old. Cher was packing them in when she was 56 years old. 

And Cher is not going quietly into the night.

Beautiful, Beautiful Morning In Downtown Southlake, TX -- June 4. 2024

Locator: 48046AAPL.

Four big stories today:

• Microsoft: laying off folks; quietly ghosting HoloLens? Link here.
• despite volatile market, AAPL stayed in the green overnight
• WTI: broke below $73, but has since recovered. Slightly.
  
• economy: 2Q24 GDP estimate dropping like a rock -- GDPNow down to 1.8 vs 2.7. 
• we now have enough data  (IYKYK)
  
• to sell ads, CNBC will hype the May, 2024, jobs report, knowing that "jobs" is a lagging indicator

Blogging: because of family commitments, blogging will be minimized, delayed.

Southlake, TX: I had some errands to run after dropping Sophia off for her sailing lessons on Grapevine Lake. Wow, what a beautiful day. Reminds me of the "better" days in New England: somewhat cool, slightly breezy, not particularly humid, but a bit of drizzle and overcast. It's hard to believe that a planet like this exists in the known universe. The only one. And we happen to be here at this point in time. Although I would have preferred to be this age in the 1960s?

Grapevine Lake Water Level: link here.

Commentary: probably not until later today. I have an appointment in twenty minutes and am enjoying coffee and a croissant. Very expensive coffee and croissant but I don't get into downtown Southlake much any more and I'll consider this part of my vacation this year. LOL.

Personal investing: I haven't decided yet, but most likely I will add to my ING and CRH positions again later today. I think I did the same thing yesterday. By rule. No recommendation. See disclaimer. On this dip I would love to buy more energy, but rules won't allow it. Just out of curiosity, what's NVDA doing today, early morning trading? Down 0.3%; down $3. AAPL? Flat. 

Yesterday, I spoke with a cybersecurity expert, who I'll refer to as Expert A in this short commentary: his views on "Nvidia" and my views are pretty much identical. I would love to know what flashes across his mind when I start mentioning CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs on the same chip.  I mentioned the M4. He said: SOC. I'm so used to that "acronym" I failed to mention it. 

Just for the fun of it, google SOC chips. What's the first hit, and what's the first image? This:

"Expert A" suggested this is what differentiates Apple hardware from Dell's hardware. Dell needs to buy CPUs and GPUs separately and then "wire" them together in their laptops. That's so yesterday. But Dell is the current "darling" on Wall Street" which speaks volumes. I assume Dell uses NPUs but not necessarily. Not many folks understand why M4s are so amazing.

Nvidia: Blackwell "flying" off the shelves. Rubin up next.

AMD: Ryzen.

Is Dell simply an assembler?  Link here. This is so yesterday. This is like paying your college roommate to build you your own computer. 

Are you kidding me?  

Apple, Tower or Rack:

Apple laptop: 

Reminder: 

• Apple Silicon: link here.
• tech: chip count updates.
• transistor count: wiki.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.81. 

Wednesday, June 5, 2024: 54 for the month; 118 for the quarter, 317 for the year
40278, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 5-7H,
40245, conf, Empire North Dakota, Walleye 32-8 1H,
39387, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 2-8-11TFH,
38057, conf, Oasis, Wood 5498 12-25 4B,

Tuesday, June 4, 2024: 50 for the month; 114 for the quarter, 313 for the year
39386, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 3-8-11MBH,

RBN Energy: extensive connectivity supports Wink's emergence as a major Permian crude hub. Archived.

Situated in West Texas’s Winkler County, the tiny city of Wink (population just under 1,000) might seem easy to overlook but it holds a special place in music history as the childhood home of Roy Orbison — he formed his first band, the Wink Westerners, there in 1949. But beyond its rich musical legacy, Wink in recent years has emerged as a key hub for crude oil connectivity in the prolific Permian Basin. Don’t blink or you might miss out on what’s happening in this dynamic locale, the subject of today’s RBN blog.