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Monday, June 3, 2024

AAPL -- $Three-Trillion Is A Hard Nut To Crack -- June 3, 2024

Locator: 48046AAPL.

Apple is playing the "long game." I'm thinking about the news that came out of Spotify today. Raising its prices again, twice in one year. Apple is now significantly less expensive than Spotify.

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For The Archives

We talked about this (the following) over the weekend. 

Posting it for the archives, leading up to WWDC next week.


AAPL needs to hit $195.33 to hit $3-trillion market cap again.

  • (195.33-194.08) / 194.08 = 0.00644 = 0.644% to get to $3-trillion market cap.
  • (200 - 194.08) / 194.08 = 0.0305 = 3.05% to get to $200 / share.

Meanwhile, NVDA:

$Three-trillion is a hard nut to crack.

Everything But The Bakken -- June 3, 2024

Locator: 48044ABTB.

Personal investing: whoo-hoo -- I've held two of the five for decades; two of my biggest holdings --

US electricity demand: will continue to set records for several years. EIA. 

Did US economy just hit a wall? Several headlines today suggest just that. Some folks are already suggesting an "emergency cut" to turn things around. Obviously, all eyes will be on the Friday unemployment numbers for May, 2024. If we have a 4-handle, market could respond in two different ways. Can't predict.

Auto glut this summer? My hunch -- best deals of 2024 will start during the week of August 24 - August 31, 2024, and will continue through the end of the year. 

World war? US short-range missiles to be used against Russia -- inside Russia. A Biden decision. Long-range missiles still off-limits for targets inside Russia.

Immigrant asylum: another Biden decision. Have not yet read how this affects sanctuary cities.

MSFT: layoffs hit HoloLens, Azure cloud teams. Link here. Like so many MSFT projects, HoloLens will simply fade away.

Spotfy: from Information -- 

Who said inflation was moderating? Spotify on Monday announced its second price increase in less than a year: The two price rises together total between 20% and 30%, depending on the tier

Jacking up prices so much in such a short period of time is a gutsy move by CEO Daniel Ek, whose company has long struggled to make any real money, due to its need to pass on most of its revenue to the music companies that own the rights to the songs it streams. If Spotify pulls this off without a surge in cancellations, we will have to put to rest the idea that it is somehow at a disadvantage to Apple, its main rival in streaming and the controller of a major digital platform. After all, Apple Music is now indisputably cheaper than Spotify.

What could make Ek regret this move, however, is the fact that all the video streaming services have also been regularly raising prices. The cumulative effect of all this subscription inflation may prompt more consumers to scrutinize their expenses more closely. If that happens, they don’t have to go far in music streaming, particularly if they're not a fan of audiobooks. Not only are the individual and family tiers now cheaper on Apple, but the iPhone maker offers discounts for customers who sign up for several of its subscriptions, such as Apple TV Plus and Apple Music. (Buying an Apple bundle through another firm, like Verizon, adds to the discounts available). Of course, Apple might also choose this moment to raise its prices, in which case all bets are off. Right now though, Apple Music has never looked so appealing.

Fujifilm X100VI: never saw this coming. Two separate issues here. I've never seen anything like this. Review here. Link here and everywhere. Likewise it appears Fujifilm Instax film is also in short supply. Must watch: how does the Fujifilm X100VI compare to a high-end iPhone? Be sure to read the social comments. You might be surprised. This was typical: 


Three New Permits -- "World War"; Deflation; WTI Plunges -- June 3, 2024

Locator: 48043B.

Four big stories today:
  • economic: US economy slowing; did the economy hit a wall? GDP dropping; deflation; auto glut;
  • Ukraine: Biden to allow Ukraine to launch US missiles against military targets inside Russia; and,
  • WTI plunges: OPEC+; global economy; gasoline prices falling fast in north Texas
  • US electricity demand to continue to grow-- EIA.
Blogging: because of family commitments, blogging will be minimized, delayed.

Wiki: it's okay to say "no" and not feel guilty. Link here. Certainly needs to be fact-checked.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.22. 

Active rigs: 36. 

Three new permits, #40804 -- #40806, inclusive:
  • Operators: Hess (2); Oasis
  • Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); Indian Hill (McKenzie);
  • Comments:
  • Hess has permits for two EN-Horst wells, SWSW 10-154-93; to be sited at 391 FSL and 431 FWL; and, 391 FSL and 464 FWL;
  • Oasis has a permit for a Behan Federal well, spacing unit, sections 17/20/29-153-101, to be sited 536 FSL and 1660 FWL in section 29-153-93;
Change of operator:
  • 17352, Kvamme 2 1-H, from Grayson Mill to Phoenix Operating

Ukraine -- Russia's "Cuban Missile Crisis"? -- June 3, 2024

Locator: 48042UKRAINE.

This was posted four days ago, May 31, 2024:

World War: they're not calling it that yet, but this certainly has morphed into something bigger than many expected. We have two notes today, the first from Peter Zeihan:  

The Western world is beginning to entertain the conversation over the use of Western weapons targeting Russian systems within Russia. There are a handful of countries that have issued their support, but will it be enough? Countries like Sweden, Poland and France are leading the charge, Germany has recently jumped on the train, and momentum is building. The initial rationale behind preventing Ukraine from using these weapons to strike within Russia was to prevent (or try to avoid) escalation. However, the mounting support in Europe has put the pressure on the Americans to make a decision, and soon.

And then this, from Foreign Affairs, last week:

If Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambition in invading Ukraine was to rein in NATO, it had precisely the opposite effect. In April 2023, Finland joined the alliance, more than doubling the length of NATO’s border with Russia, and in March 2024, Sweden became a member as well. As U.S. President Joe Biden has said of Putin: “He thought he’d get the Finlandization of NATO; instead, he got the NATO-ization of Finland—and Sweden.”

Now this today:  

Does anyone recall the "Cuban missile crisis"? Not quite the same, but incredibly similar. US "short-range missiles" are now being allowed to strike Russia directly. Does anyone remember that it was another Democrat administration that allowed "limited use of arms" in Southeast Asia that turned into "Vietnam." 

I'm eager to see Peter Zeihan's "take" on this.

Grapevine Lake, North Texas, DFW -- Update -- June 3, 2024

Locator: 48041TEXAS.

Grapevine Lake, north of DFW, huge lake and one of five lakes in series north of Dallas - Ft Worth to control flooding.

Grapevine is the last of five (north to south, last before DFW). Authorities release water from each of the five lakes as necessary to control flooding farther south; Grapevine is last lake to be opened so all the "flooding" occurs in Grapevine first. 

All ramps and roads on south side of lake are closed except one to get to Scott's Landing Marina where Sophia is enrolled for sailing camp these next two weeks. Her first day was today.

This is a photo of the marina, completely surrounded by water. There is a makeshift pontoon walkway out to Scott's Landing.

Deflation! Finally, Folks Hoping For The Economy To Slow -- There May Be Light At The End Of The Tunnel -- June 3, 2024

Locator: 48040B.

Deflation: for those eager to see the economy slow, great news today --
  • deflation is now the new "meme" -- not "stagflation"
  • crude oil plunges below $74 -- already in the DFW area, gasoline prices are slumping, whoo-hoo!
Personal investing:
  • will add to my position in ING. By rule, no recommendation.
  • will add to my position in CRH. By rule, no recommendation.
See disclaimers.
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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.63. 

Tuesday, June 4, 2024: 50 for the month; 114 for the quarter, 313 for the year

39386, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 3-8-11MBH,

Monday, June 3, 2024: 49 for the month; 113 for the quarter, 312 for the year
None.

Sunday,  June 2, 2024: 49 for the month; 113 for the quarter, 312 for the year
40186, conf, CLR, Sloan 7-8H,
39654, conf, Hess, GO-Bergstrom-156-98-2734H-2,
39385, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 4-8-11TFH,

Saturday, June 1, 2024: 46 for the month; 110 for the quarter, 309 for the year
40185, conf, CLR, Sloan 6-8H,
39384, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 1B UTFH,
39327, conf, Hunt Oil, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 4,


If you asked someone where U.S. crude oil shipments would go when the Obama administration ended the ban on most crude exports in December 2015, it’s not likely that Nigeria would have come to mind. Yet this year marked the second time since the restrictions ended that U.S. oil has been sent to the OPEC member, this time to feed its long-awaited Dangote refinery. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine this development and the prospects for more U.S. exports to the West African nation. 

Before we dive into Nigeria’s emerging appetite for U.S. crude, let’s look at how we got to where we are today. U.S. crude oil exports have climbed by leaps and bounds since 2015, only retreating at the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Exports rebounded thereafter to set fresh records in 2023 at just over 4 MMb/d. Grades from across America’s onshore shale basins and the Gulf of Mexico have set sail to more than 50 countries. For top-buyer Europe, U.S. oil has become a go-to source since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago. Although quality issues have flared up occasionally, catching buyers off guard, the industry has seemingly addressed them in turn, limiting adverse impacts to demand.

Why Nigeria? from previous posts on the blog:

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Locator: 46715NIGERIA.

Link here. Nigeria, the size of Texas, will double its population in 27 years,

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Locator: 44317B.

Global Population Projections

Projections: by 2100, from July 23, 2022:

  • India: goes to #1
  • Nigeria: goes to #2
  • China: drops significantly; goes to #3