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Saturday, June 1, 2024

Carl Q On The Eagles And Don Henley -- 1969 -- 1970 -- June 1, 2024

Locator: 48022MUSIC.

As long-term readers know: the best year for music was the 18-month period around 1969

I can tell it is going to be another one of those nights. Sometimes I wonder: what would it have been for music had the Beatles been the back-up band for Linda Ronstadt? Not just for one tour, but from the beginning to the end. Just one look, Billy Payne on keyboard:

Carl Q on the Eagles and Don Henley -- link here.

One can't discuss the Eagles / Don Henley without talking about Linda Ronstadt. Period. Dot.

Wow, I miss those days.

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Taylor Swift

For those of us who don't "know" Taylor Swift, it's time to read her bio over at wiki.

Yeah, it's going to be one of those nights.

The Taylor Swift generation begin in 2006. 

At an industry showcase at Nashville's Bluebird Cafe in 2005, Swift caught the attention of Scott Borchetta, a DreamWorks Records executive who was preparing to form an independent record label, Big Machine Records.
She had first met Borchetta in 2004. She was one of Big Machine's first signings, and her father purchased a three-percent stake in the company for an estimated $120,000. [Sounds like "Shark Tank."]
She began working on her eponymous debut album with Nathan Chapman. Swift wrote or co-wrote all album tracks, and co-writers included Rose, Robert Ellis Orrall, Brian Maher, and Angelo Petraglia.[
Released in October 2006, Taylor Swift peaked at number five on the US Billboard 200, on which it spent 157 weeks—the longest stay on the chart by any release in the US in the 2000s decade.
Swift became the first female country music artist to write or co-write every track on a US platinum-certified debut album.

Gen Z: the mid-to-late 1990s as starting birth years and the early 2010s as ending birth years. Most members of Generation Z are the children of Generation X or older Millennials.

Folks born in 1996 are now 28 years old; those born in 2014 are ten years old. Coming-of-age years, ten years to 28 years of age. The Gen Z generation is the Taylor Swift generation. 

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Divas

Blondie -- a "10" on my list.

But not a diva.

Divas? Cher was a diva.

I have to check again, but I believe Debbie Harry was born in 1945, Cher, 1946. And in 2002, Cher, was as good as she ever was. Debbie Harry not so much. Link here. On her "Believe" album. Wow, she knew her audience.

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Divas

Linda Ronstadt is not on the list.

I agree. 

Linda Ronstadt is on a list of her own -- a list with one name. Hers. In a  class of her own.

Soft Landing At Risk? Next Data Point -- May, 2024, BLS Unemployment -- Data Points Starting In May, 2024

Locator: 48021ECON.

Updates

June 13, 2024: soft landing at risk? Deflation?

June 7, 2024: joblesssness -- huge surprise; analysts can't explain it. JPow can take a sign of relief.

June 3, 2024: GDPNow -- drops to 1.8 from previous 2.7.

June 2, 2024: Carl Q tweeted again.


June 2, 2024: Carl Q sees the same thing I'm seeing. Actionable: JPow may be forced to act. "All eyes" on May's unemployment figures." Link here.

Original Post

It's very, very subtle, but there's just enough information coming out now suggesting that the economy is slowing down -- perhaps significantly -- JPow has to be a bit concerned. 

  • The next data point is this next Friday, the unemployment report.  U3 is at 3.9. A lot of Wall Street analysts are suggesting if Friday's unemployment number has a "4-handle," it's time for the Fed to take note. Friday: 6, 2024, the May, 2024, data.
  • May, 2024, unemployment data -- three possibilities: no change, up, down. My bet:
    • no change (stays at 3.9): 40% chance / likelihood
    • 4-handle: 30% chance / likelihood
    • 3.7: 20% ditto
    • 3.8: 10% ditto

Pending house sales, April, 2024.

  • analysts estimate: down 0.7%.
  • actual: down 7.7%
  • holy mackerel.

New automobile glut? Link here. New car prices are going to have to start coming down. The MRSP won't drop, but the actual price paid / financing will have to come down.

A dropping GDP and the following graph should be very, very concerning, link here:

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On The Other Hand

Air travel in the US surging; globally will finally beat 2019 data.

US gasoline demand starting to surge.

Bullet Train Update -- California -- June 1, 2024

Locator: 48020TRAIN.

Link here.

From the link: it's all been approved. Was there ever any doubt?

Since the earliest plans for the California High-Speed Rail Project, the segment connecting the Central Valley to Los Angeles has been fraught with controversy and technical conundrums. Political pressure and other concerns ultimately pushed the route away from the Grapevine and over the Tehachapis to the Antelope Valley, where it is planned to run along the State Route 14 corridor into the San Fernando Valley.

A final environmental review for a critical 38-mile leg from Palmdale to Burbank was released Friday. If approved by the authority’s board of directors next month, the entire route between Los Angeles and San Francisco would be environmentally cleared for construction.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority’s board of directors is expected to make a decision in late June on whether to accept the document, which includes several possible variations of the route with consideration to concerns about cost, aesthetics and environmental impacts raised by community members over the past two years.

Launch Scrubbed At T-3 Minutes 50 Seconds -- Crew Getting Ready To Egress -- Looking At A Possible 24-Hour Turnaround -- 11:35 A.M. June 1, 2024

Locator: 48018NASA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLBzMzTaZZ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W-Xp4GkuyU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC88_JkFcH4 

The "automatic" launch sequence scrubbed the launch at T-3.50 but NASA / Boeing has no idea (at least that's what is being reported) has no idea why HAL scrubbed the launch.

Dow Components, XOM -- Flashback, Update -- Decisions With Major Consequences -- June 1, 2024

Locator: 48019DOW.

Updates

June 2, 2024: another view. I don't think this op/ed added anything that hasn't been said all year.

Original Post

Link here. Barron's.  

Link here. CNBC.

This is a huge story. 

Disclaimer: I've lost track of exact times/days regarding this story but the "point of the story" remains intact).

Thursday and Friday (or whenever it was late this week), I saw the Dow, as we all did, and I thought I would have an incredibly bad day -- or bad week --  (with regard to the market). Fortunately early on, CNBC clarified that the 300-point drop in the Dow was due "entirely" to CRM (Salesforce). Since I held no CRM (that's another story) I had no concerns.

By the end of the day (Friday) with the Dow up over 600 points I had one of the best days ever (with regard to the market).

But I think a bigger story has not been mentioned yet. Actually there are several big stories not yet mentioned but I will focus on this particular story.

Let's check the 5-day CRM ticker for Friday, May 31, 2024.

So, what do you notice? What's the story?

Remember, at the top of the day, Thursday, May 30, 2024, the Dow was down 500 points at the opening from the previous close. 

By the end of the week, the Dow had the best day of the year.

But yet, CRM had recovered very, very little from the original plunge.

This is the story:

  • if one stock, CRM in this case, can drag the Dow down 300 points, and then,
  • the Dow recovers the next day by 600 points, it suggests to me that,
  • the rest of the Dow components (or some of the Dow components) had an "out-size" effect to counteract CRM

The Dow 30 close for each of the components can be found here. At the link, one must scroll down a bit. I assume there are more user-friendly sites available.

Every Dow component closed up (and closed up nicely) by the end of the day Friday, except for two: Amazon and CAT. 

Which leads to at least two more stories, but those stories will have to wait for another day.

********************************
Down Component History: CRM Replaced XOM In 2020

But back to the two linked stories:

Link here. Barron's

Link here. CNBC.

2020? Hindsight has 20/20 vision. 

The Dow vs the S&P 500

If one only has 30 components, and two of them are "heavy-weight" oil companies (CVX and XOM) I have no trouble taking one out to be replaced with something else. The "something else" and the "timing" of the decision are problematic.

In this case, making such a monumental change during an unprecedented pandemic / lock down which greatly affected oil demand seems ill-advised -- again, hindsight is 20/20. 

The Dow components, link here.

Why did CRM (a tech company) not replace one of these:

  • INTC
  • CSCO

But going a step further:

  • I can easily name several -- maybe as many as a dozen tickers -- on the Dow that really, really skew how incredibly amazing the stock market can be for stock pickers. 

FANG stocks and the "Magnificent 7"  identified by Jim Cramer some years ago and very few of those stocks in the Dow 30.  Of the FANG / Magnificent 7:

  • AMZN
  • AAPL
  • MSFT

Meanwhile, we still have these:

  • CSCO
  • IBM
  • INTC
  • JNJ
  • KO
  • 3M
  • VZ
  • DIS
  • DOW

One almost wonders if the Dow 30 "committee" -- when replacing XOM with CRM in 2020 -- was being a bit too woke?

It is what it is. But it certainly reminds Gen Xers and Millennials that the Dow 30 "committee" is still enamored with its "legacy" components. 

On another note, not doing this on purpose (not to be taken out of context), but for the past two years I have pivoted from "investing" in the Dow and "investing" in the NASDAQ.

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple

Some additional thoughts:
 

NASDAQ: by market cap -- not manipulated -- simply number of shares x price/share.

Dow 30: incredibly manipulated:

  • price-weighted
  • adding just the price of shares (which, of course, makes no sense); and, then
  • the divisor, entirely manipulated
  • not all economic sectors represented
  • economic sectors that are represented, totally manipulated
  • changes to the Dow 30 are rare (very, very rare, and seemingly capricious)

On the other hand, the S&P 500, completely rule-based:

  • all economic sectors are represented
  • is very dynamic
  • changes to the S&P 500 are rule-based
  • one rule: an S&P 500 component must have positive earnings for the most recent four quarters
  • is much more closely aligned with the US economy because of its dynamic emphasis/focus based on rules

For newbie investors with a 30-year horizon:

  • be heavy-weighted in the NASDAQ
  • be heavy-weighted in the S&P 500, if one wants to be a bit more conservative
  • ignore the Dow 30

In case you missed it:

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

A reminder: my non-Bakken posts are often not-ready for Prime Time, but rather to spur thinking.

Am I right?

US Data Centers, Energy And Buildout -- June 1, 2024

Locator: 48020TECH.

Re-posting a portion of an earlier post.

Link here.

I cannot get my head around this.

US investment in electronics manufacturing construction:

  • 2024: "x" amount
  • 1996 - 2020 (24 years) = "x" amount


Link here.


Screenshot:

Data Center Updates -- June 1, 2024

Locator: 48019TECH.

One word: utilities.  Link here.

"Data Centers" tracked here

Location tracking: link here

The Elon Musk data center (EMDC) is not trivial. Austin, Texas:

"Tech" tracked here.

American re-emerges as industrial powerhouse. Link here.


Link here.

I cannot get my head around this.

US investment in electronics manufacturing construction:

  • 2024: "x" amount
  • 1996 - 2020 (24 years) = "x" amount

Link here.


Screenshot:

NASA - SPACEX Starliner Launch In 30 Minutes -- YouTube -- NASA Channel

Locator: 48018NASA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLBzMzTaZZ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W-Xp4GkuyU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC88_JkFcH4

Streaming videos seem to have three-to-five minute differences in launch time.

There are multiple channels; be sure to find the correct one. But you will know if you have the correct one it will be very, very live. Right now, discussing the well-known helium leak which will not interfere with launch.  

Launch time dependent on "position" of launch site relative to earth's rotation. 

On another note: remember the days when CBS, NBC, and ABC would be televising "these" launches, constantly interrupted by commercial advertising. Here we have NASA's own television network, being streamed live on YouTube and no cost to viewers. 

More and more agencies / corporations will develop their own "television networks." All they need is one camera. With generative AI, they may not even need a "real live person" to televise "live news." 

"Biden TV"? 24/7.

"Trump TV"? 24/7.

"GM TV"? 24/7.