Soft Landing At Risk? Next Data Point -- May, 2024, BLS Unemployment -- Data Points Starting In May, 2024

Locator: 48021ECON.

Updates

June 13, 2024: soft landing at risk? Deflation?

June 7, 2024: joblesssness -- huge surprise; analysts can't explain it. JPow can take a sign of relief.

June 3, 2024: GDPNow -- drops to 1.8 from previous 2.7.

June 2, 2024: Carl Q tweeted again.

June 2, 2024: Carl Q sees the same thing I'm seeing. Actionable: JPow may be forced to act. "All eyes" on May's unemployment figures." Link here.

Original Post

It's very, very subtle, but there's just enough information coming out now suggesting that the economy is slowing down -- perhaps significantly -- JPow has to be a bit concerned. 

• The next data point is this next Friday, the unemployment report.  U3 is at 3.9. A lot of Wall Street analysts are suggesting if Friday's unemployment number has a "4-handle," it's time for the Fed to take note. Friday: 6, 2024, the May, 2024, data.
• May, 2024, unemployment data -- three possibilities: no change, up, down. My bet:
• no change (stays at 3.9): 40% chance / likelihood
  
• 4-handle: 30% chance / likelihood
  
• 3.7: 20% ditto
  
• 3.8: 10% ditto
  

Pending house sales, April, 2024.

• analysts estimate: down 0.7%.
• actual: down 7.7%. 
• holy mackerel.

New automobile glut? Link here. New car prices are going to have to start coming down. The MRSP won't drop, but the actual price paid / financing will have to come down.

A dropping GDP and the following graph should be very, very concerning, link here:

****************************
On The Other Hand

Air travel in the US surging; globally will finally beat 2019 data.

US gasoline demand starting to surge.