Locator: 47148B.
Locator: 47147B.
$60 - $80 is the new trading range.
$60 - $80 is the new $40 - $60.
Thinking out loud, rambling: if WTI (not Brent) were to trend toward $90 this summer, that would be quite interesting. A lot of folks would suggest that will not be helpful for the Biden administration and withdrawing more oil from the SPR becomes more problematic, and probably wouldn't do much for price of WTI and gasoline. But I'm surprise that we're trending toward $80 again.
Pricing, California: the headline is incredibly misleading. Link here.
The "price you see" is NOT the price you will pay under this new law. It comes close, but the California politicians writing this law knew that there had to be one exception. Tipping is one exception but not the exception I'm thinking about. That one exception I noticed is in the fine print and it not mentioned at all in the article, again, except for tipping. See if you can spot the omission. Link here. Again, the headline is technically correct, but in my mind, very misleading. Certainly the overall tone of the article is very, very misleading. With all the attention on restaurants, California must have some peculiar restaurant pricing. I would think car rentals, air transportation, hotel / motels, concert tickets would be the low-hanging fruit for this law.
Legislation: more and more legislation appears to be laws to satisfy a single politician's personal pet peeve.
Silver lining in high restaurant prices: folks are finding how much money they can save by eating at home.
Exhibit A: $7.00 at Starbucks for a coffee and a croissant was tolerable two years ago; now, coffee and a croissant, all of a sudden, at $8.50 is not tolerable. As if $1.50 on top of $7 for coffee / croissant is deal-breaker. Exhibit B: $7.95 for Big Mac meal two years ago was tolerable; folks balk at $8.50 for same meal. Oh, give me a break.
I assume most folks won't understand the point I'm trying to make -- those folks are generally referred to as cupcakes -- just as folks did not understand the point Apple was trying to make with its iPad commercial, May 7, 2024, or the "5-7" commercial as it's now called, comparing it to "9-11," I guess.
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Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory
Link here. If it's by Charles Kennedy, you know it's good.
I thought peak oil happened ten years ago.
Glad to see wiki updated their page. Note the word "falsified."
Hubbert's theory, peak oil:
From the linked Kennedy article:
Locator: 47146B.
Four new permits, #40748 - #40751, inclusive (May 14, 2024):
Five new permits, #40743 - #40747, inclusive (May 13, 2024):
The map:
Locator: 47145B.
For those in the right stocks today (think AAPL), this was another huge (and wonderful day) to be fully invested.
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The Book Page
My book for the week, just arrived today, from Amazon. I was unaware of it until noting the sequel to this book at Barnes and Noble a couple of days ago.
The hard copy cost $135 so I bought a softcover -- Princeton University Press, so an excellent edition.
I don't care for apocalyptic "stories" but this one covers an "era" in which I have been interested in for decades, so it was a no-brainer.
The more I read, the more I realize Dr Fauci was doing the right thing. I truly admire what I know about Dr Fauci. I'll add this book to my Covid-19 library.
Likewise, the more I read, the more I realize Truman made the right decision with the atomic bombs. Most recent exhibit: page 78, Norman Mailer: A Double Life. The author's comment about Operation Coronet.
From wiki, Exhibit B.
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The Movie Page
I'm in my Apocalypse Now phase. It's obvious I missed 95% of this movie when I saw it the first time.
Laurence Fishburne:
Locator: 47144B.
Stagflation: Kelly Evans is back on CNBC after maternity leave.
I don't follow her much either way but she lost whatever credibility she had (or the credibility her producer had) when she brought up "stagflation" as her first "story" on her program.
As noted before, these "stories" are drawn up at least two weeks in advance. I was surprised to hear one of guests actually supporting her concern for stagflation as a real concern. At least CNBC's chief analyst reminded folks stagflation has three components: high inflation (and 6% doesn't cut it); high unemployment (and 6% doesn't cut it; and slow growth (GDPNow's most recent estimate: 4.2, up from 3.3.
And we move on.
For those in the right stocks today (think AAPL), this was another huge (and wonderful day) to be fully invested.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $79.12.
Active rigs: 38.
Five new permits, #40743 - #40747, inclusive:
One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:
Locator: 47143AAPL.
AppleCHAT? Let's watch for the stories this next week.
This has been posted previously but it's back in my twitter feed.
Some think Apple, Inc, -- AAPL -- is a value company, a value stock.
For Apple, its services segment is a growth story.
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Disclaimer: Briefly
Reminder:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I
am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.Locator: 47142ECON.
Re-posting.April 11, 2024: Carl Q:
April 7, 2024: Exhibit A -- Japan.
April 7, 2024, link here:
The daily march of migrants across the Southern border has been a political curse for President Joe Biden. But for the economy, it may have turned out to be a blessing.
By adding millions of new workers to the labor market, the immigration surge has lifted payrolls and growth, and potentially helped keep a lid on consumer prices, according to recent research. Capitol Hill’s budgeteers also think it stands to reduce the deficit in the coming years.
In an analysis published earlier this week, Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden White House economist, found that the post-pandemic pickup in immigration accounted for at least one-fifth of the increase in U.S. gross domestic product since the end of 2019. Though it wasn’t the only factor, the boost from migrants helped explain why the American economy has bounced back much more strongly than those of other developed countries, he argued.
This is so incredible. I first talked about this in a post on July 23, 2022, almost two years ago.
In the [2024 - 2009 = ] fifteen years since I've been blogging, I've done four deep-dives of which I'm most proud:
I'm looking for the fifth "deep dive."
Original Post
That southern surge. The $7 trillion gift. Link here.
The U.S. fertility rate peaked in 2007 at 2.12 children per woman.
It is expected to level out this year at 1.70 births per woman, and remain there through 2054.
Demographics and aging trends could create significant headwinds for economic growth, as aging populations historically have experienced declines in work, productivity, and spending. But the news isn’t all bad, says Matthias Doepke, an economics professor ... with a title so long it won't fit on two lines.....
The future isn’t written in stone, he notes, while the experience of other countries in similar straits should offer the U.S. a road map to maximizing opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.
Doepke has spent much of his career studying how political and cultural changes affect economic development, with a focus on how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility choices. He recently spoke with Barron’s about the impact of demographic changes on the labor market, and the so-called demographic dividend.
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Reposting From Last Month
Locator: 46813IMMIGRATION.
From a while ago, link here. Note how far Biden moved the unemployment rate to a better number over the last three years (his first year numbers were "Trump's numbers").
The $7-trillion gift.
And more. Link here.
New: the "silver tsunami." Link here.
New. Looks like Yardeni is reading the blog. LOL. Link here. Finally, more and more articles on this phenomenon.
May 13, 2024, link here:
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Previous
Re-posting.
Locator: 47124ECON.
And the Michigan Consumer Index folks are unhappy, depressed, worried, pessimistic.
This speaks volumes of "talking about one thing, experiencing something else."
But there's more, from Carl Q and Yardeni:
Those complaining most about the economy (? -- needs to be fact-checked) saw an increase in their household wealth to the tune of $114 trillion by end of last year -- 2023 -- nearly 70% of all households' wealth.
It gets tedious separating memes from the facts.
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The Source
Some observations:
As noted earlier, placing the Dow (stock market) over this graphic explains a lot.
But there's even something else, which I've talked about many times.
Thirty years of investing with tax-free accounts: those now 69 years old were 39 years old.
Thirty years ago (2023 - 30 = 1993). What happened -- or better said, what was happening in 1993?
Previously posted:
January 22, 2023
Key dates to remember with regard to IRAs:
When did IRAs truly start to impact the economy? I would argue, 1995, to some extent, but then took off in 2007:
Now, look at this graph:
Same chart with markers and comments:
What was happening in 1993? In 1970 the traditional IRA was introduced. By 1985, the traditional IRA was beginning to make an impact. But then in 1997, although it didn't matter much at the time, Congress made the IRA even better by introducing the Roth IRA. Ten years later, 2007, the stock market began to take off, and all that money being invested in the market was growing tax-free.
There's going to be a bit of a bow wave effect as folks start taking RMDs but by the early 2000s, folks finally figured it out that the Roth IRA was the way to go. The net worth of those who figured that out -- the value of the Roth IRA vs the traditional IRA -- will result in the third cohort -- the light blue cohort growing even more than the fourth cohort most of whom had much less time to start investing in IRAs, traditional or Roth.
Congress will continue to make the IRAs even better. Most recently they moved the age of first RMDs to age 73; and to age 75 starting in 2033 for many of those (but not all) that have traditional IRAs. It is likely that Congress will add more incentives to encourage saving for retirement.Locator: 47140LNG.
Google: lng mexico sempra azul and then click on "news."
Link here. The Panama Canal is key to American LNG.
A number of RBN Energy blogs. Start here.
Locator: 47141LNG.
RBN Energy: Azul -- January 20, 2021. Link here. Now, four years later (2025), Sempra says Costa Azul may be ready for action.
For years, the South Texas NGL market was a world of its own — a self-contained liquids ecosystem centered around the refineries and petrochemical plants in the Corpus Christi area.
But that all changed about six years ago when EPIC Midstream built a new NGL pipeline from the Permian into Corpus and a new fractionator to process those liquids. Corpus morphed into a vibrant NGL market in its own right. But nothing with South Texas NGLs is easy.
Before the EPIC system was even up and running, a consortium calling itself BANGL — short for Belvieu Alternative NGL — announced another pipeline to compete for Permian NGLs that would parallel EPIC’s route out of the Permian, but then make a hard left toward Sweeny and Texas City, setting up a battle of the pipes for Permian NGLs.
The Panama Canal and US LNG.
Azul updates:
Azul: A number of RBN Energy blogs. Start here.
EIA:
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Biden's LNG Export Pause
RBN Energy: gauging the impact of the DOE's pause in LNG export licenses. Archived.
There’s no doubt about it: The Biden administration’s decision to pause approval of LNG export licenses poses a new threat to a number of projects thought to be nearing a final investment decision (FID).The questions brought on by the move are profound: how big of a problem is this for U.S. developers, how does the timeout affect the projects now in limbo, and — over the longer term — what does the added uncertainty regarding incremental LNG exports mean for U.S. crude oil and natural gas production and what does it mean for the global energy landscape? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the factors that led to the administration’s announcement — and the case to be made that expanded LNG exports are in the U.S.’s economic and strategic interest.
Locator: 47141B.
PSX: activist Eliott takes a $1 billion stake in PSX; seeks two board seats, link here. PSX down 52 cents in mid-morning trading. Pays 3%.
CRH: increases variable dividend.
NYSE 52-week highs: link here. As the day goes on, the number will increase.
Goldilocks.
Americans ready to travel: link here. Memorial Day travel expected to hit 20-year record.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $7.42. 1.5%; up $1.16. In anticipation of US driving season. Biden watching closely. One can almost guess the administration's next action.
Tuesday, May 14, 2024: 20 for the month; 84 for the quarter, 283 for the year
None.
Monday, May 13, 2024: 20 for the month; 84 for the quarter, 283 for the year
39880, conf, Liberty Resources Management, Temple W 159-96-36-25-2MBH
39879, conf, Liberty Resources Management, Temple W 159-96-36-25-1MBH,
Sunday, May 12, 2024: 18 for the month; 82 for the quarter, 281 for the year
39407, conf, Whiting, Olson 31-31HU,
39406, conf, Whiting, Olson 31-31-4H,
38737, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-3H,
RBN Energy: new pipe will upend Permian NGL flows to non-Belvieu markets -- again. Archived.
For years, the South Texas NGL market was a world of its own — a self-contained liquids ecosystem centered around the refineries and petrochemical plants in the Corpus Christi area. But that all changed about six years ago when EPIC Midstream built a new NGL pipeline from the Permian into Corpus and a new fractionator to process those liquids. Corpus morphed into a vibrant NGL market in its own right. But nothing with South Texas NGLs is easy. Before the EPIC system was even up and running, a consortium calling itself BANGL — short for Belvieu Alternative NGL — announced another pipeline to compete for Permian NGLs that would parallel EPIC’s route out of the Permian, but then make a hard left toward Sweeny and Texas City, setting up a battle of the pipes for Permian NGLs.Call me irresponsible but I think RBN Energy missed an incredible trifecta: Manic Monday, today, the Bangles, and BANGL. And then tie in today's early trading in the market.