For The Archives -- Solberg Obituaries -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46948ARCHIVES.

For the archives.

My alma mater: Augustana College (now Augustana University), Sioux Falls, SD. [Not to be confused with college of same name in Rock Island, Illinois.]

Augustana alumnus David Soul, Starsky and Hutch, died January, 2024.

His father's obituary here.

I lived in Solberg Hall my freshman year. I assume the Hall was named after David Soul's father. 

David Soul obituary. 

David Soul's father's obituary. 

***************************
Southwest Airlines

To the best of my knowledge I have never flown SWA and my wife refuses to fly SWA due to its unique boarding process.

I know the basics -- first come, first to board -- but never understood the nuances. To say the least, the whole process is very, very strange. 

It takes a whole page of relatively small print to explain all the permutations of the process. And, of course, every passenger is looking for a loophole.  

Now, that I've read the SWA guidelines and several other social media sources, I'm almost tempted to fly SWA just to see how smoothly it all goes. LOL. 

I must be missing something but the SWA boarding process seems incredible bizarre, something the hippy-dippy crowd came up with during the 60s / 70s and simply never changed the process. Like I said, I must be missing something.

Whole-Life Insurance Policy -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46947INSURANCE.

I'll come back to this some day, maybe. I'm just too tired to get into tonight but I wanted to post this screenshot so I can clear it off my desktop.

For now, just posting some numbers. 

Maybe some folks will be able to connect the dots. 

The Southern Surge -- Now A "Thing" In The Business / Investing News -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46946ECONOMY.

Re-Posting

Locator: 46917ECONOMY.

Updates

April 11, 2024: Carl Q: 

April 7, 2024: Exhibit A -- Japan. 

April 7, 2024, link here:

The daily march of migrants across the Southern border has been a political curse for President Joe Biden. But for the economy, it may have turned out to be a blessing.

By adding millions of new workers to the labor market, the immigration surge has lifted payrolls and growth, and potentially helped keep a lid on consumer prices, according to recent research. Capitol Hill’s budgeteers also think it stands to reduce the deficit in the coming years.

In an analysis published earlier this week, Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden White House economist, found that the post-pandemic pickup in immigration accounted for at least one-fifth of the increase in U.S. gross domestic product since the end of 2019. Though it wasn’t the only factor, the boost from migrants helped explain why the American economy has bounced back much more strongly than those of other developed countries, he argued.

This is so incredible. I first talked about this in a post on July 23, 2022, almost two years ago.  

In the [2024 - 2009 = ] fifteen years since I've been blogging, I've done four deep-dives of which I'm most proud:

• Netflix: "the next big thing"
• Devon: best operator in the Permian
• Nvidia: I pivoted from energy to semiconductor chips early
  
• the Southern Surge, as part of a bigger story, jobs: the $7 trillion gift

I'm looking for the fifth "deep dive."

Original Post

That southern surge. The $7 trillion gift. Link here.

The linked Barron's story.

The U.S. fertility rate peaked in 2007 at 2.12 children per woman.

It is expected to level out this year at 1.70 births per woman, and remain there through 2054.

Demographics and aging trends could create significant headwinds for economic growth, as aging populations historically have experienced declines in work, productivity, and spending. But the news isn’t all bad, says Matthias Doepke, an economics professor ... with a title so long it won't fit on two lines.....

The future isn’t written in stone, he notes, while the experience of other countries in similar straits should offer the U.S. a road map to maximizing opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.

Doepke has spent much of his career studying how political and cultural changes affect economic development, with a focus on how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility choices. He recently spoke with Barron’s about the impact of demographic changes on the labor market, and the so-called demographic dividend.

**************************
Reposting From Last Month

It started here.

Locator: 46813IMMIGRATION.

From a while ago, link here. Note how far Biden moved the unemployment rate to a better number over the last three years (his first year numbers were "Trump's numbers").

The $7-trillion gift.

Link here.

Those states that best manage the new immigrants will do best.

 

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves Corrected / Updated -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46945RUSSIA.

Pointing out things you won't see reported anywhere else. LOL.

Posted March 18, 2024:

Now, April 7, 2024, the site has been updated:

I don't recall having seen this ever before.

South Gaza: IDF Stands Down -- WTI Falls 2.3%; Drops $2 / Bbl -- Trading Below $85 -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46944ISRAEL.

What's more bullish for oil?

• peace in the Mideast?
• US economy likely to surge with drop in price of oil?

US economy or high-priced oil?

Inflation Watch -- Airline Tickets -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46943INFLATIONWATCH.

I get a kick out of all those folks on CNBC fretting about inflation.

I fly to Portland, OR, on a regular basis to visit the grandsons.

Last year, last autumn, November, 2023, round trip, from my journal:  $470.

For my spring trip, five, six months later: $314.20.

Flashback: WTI $45 Back In 2017

Locator: 46942WTI.

For those watching the price of oil, it could be worse.

$45 back in 2017.

 

How Can One Not Be Bullish? April 7, 2024

Locator: 46941INV.

This has been a common and recurring theme on the blog. 

Link here.

************************
Re-Posting

Locator: 46855INV.

The US market.

• S&P 500 closes at 5,248, a new all-time record.
  
• AAPL: up $3.60 today; up over 2%. See if you can connect the dots with this one below.
  
• This sure doesn't feel like an impending recession. CNBC analysts and talking heads have pushed concerns for a recession out to 2025.

Where's all this money coming from?

• Covid-19 stimulus money;
• Milton Friedman's velocity of money;
  
• my favorite chart;
• IRAs: see below
  
• southern surge: a $7 trillion gift
  
• (this would require a stand-alone blog -- but elevator speech: federal and state aid; a new agency within the Department of Homeland Security?) 
• TSA: $11 billion budget; 60,000 employees
• Citizenship and Immigration: <$1 billion; 4,000 employees
  

Baby boomer age wave theory: link here.

• baby boomers: note the size of this demographic at the link;
• who has all the money? who has all their medical care expenses paid for? whose houses are paid off?
• birth years: 1946 - 1964
• ages (2024): 60 years old - 78 years old; mid-range: 69 years old -- today, 2024
  
• IRS: RMDs -- about 4% annually

• ICYMI: in the box above, it's trillion with a "t." That's even more than Elon Musk's bank account.
  

Addictions:

• baby boomers: booze, cigarettes, gambling, muscle cars, sports, making money, malls, products,
• big families, extended families (inherited money diluted to "barely enough to live on"))
  
• millennials, Gen Zers: tech, travel, home delivery, services
• small families (inherited money remains concentrated)
  

Quick: name a time in the history of the US with the same data points, demographics, and addictions.

Updates

March 27, 2024: one year later ...

• "Max" chart:

Original Post
January 22, 2023

Key dates to remember with regard to IRAs:

• 1970
• 1981
• 1997

When did IRAs truly start to impact the economy? I would argue, 1995, to some extent, but then took off in 2007:

• 1970: traditional IRA introduced
• 1980: folks became comfortable with IRAs
• 1997: IRAs improved by a huge amount with the introduction of Roth IRAs
• 2007: another ten years of traditional IRA / Roth IRA growth in popularity

Now, look at this graph:

 Same chart with markers and comments:

Demographics, US:

Look at this, and no one seems to be mentioning this.

Age when one can start taking distributions from one's IRAs: 59.5 years of age.

IRA RMDs by demographic (note, data is somewhat old):

• silent generation: minimal impact on economy with regard to RMDs
• those who have IRAs are probably using RMDs for nursing home expenses
• baby boomers: biggest impact on economy with regard to RMDs
• those born in 1964: turn 78 years of age this year
• those born in 1946: turn 60 years of age
• in other words, every -- repeat, every baby boomer can now take RMDs
• my wife has been taking distributions before they were required and now RMDs for maybe ten years and despite the withdrawals year-after year, her IRA continues to grow
• I start taking my first RMDs this year 
  
• almost all baby boomers can now tap into their social security benefits
• almost all baby boomers are covered by Medicare. Medicare benefits got even better in 2024 (thank you, Mr Biden), seniors will spend less money on healthcare (all things being equal)
  
• 529s: a lot of baby boomers (GRANDPARENTS) are going to look for tax-advantage accounts to place RMDs they don't need for current expenses
• 529s have vastly improved starting this year (or last year?) making these investment vehicles look even better -- I'm having trouble finding a better place to re-invest my RMDs
• interestingly, one can argue that 529s are even better than IRAs
  
• generation X: will start to make impact this year but not much, but it will continue to grow every year for the next decade or so
• those born in 1980: turn 44 years old this year; no impact on economy with regard to RMDs but starting to hit max income / max productive years of their lives
• the younger Xers, now in the best years of their lives, financially, are now more likely to fund IRAs and that will help set a floor for the equity market; 
  
• those born in 1965: turn 59 years old this year!
  
• this is the biggie
• starting this year, generation X folks can start tapping their IRAs; it doesn't mean that they will but it means that if they don't, they have enough other income to offset any need for IRA distribution (meaning strong financial status for those folks)
  
• again, this is huge
• Roth IRAs have been around 27 years and the last 27 years have been great for investors, but
• even better: the way the market behaved last year and how the market is now behaving in the second half of January, 2024, a lot of folks are getting excited
• my hunch: a lot of folks are taking some / all of their RMDs this month; if not their entire RMD, taking a fourth to half of their annual RMD
• only a few more years and Xers will also be able to access social security benefits, also 
  

On top of all this, this "RMD story" is not going to go away. Year-after-year RMDs will increase in dollar amounts, but whether they increase or not, they will never quit.

And we haven't even begun to talk about "inherited RMDs":

• "inherited RMDs"? Reminder, oldest baby boomers turn 78 years of age this year -- IRS life expectancy for IRAs tend to trend toward 100 years of age -- taking only minimal RMDs, the vast majority of IRAs will still be funded and growing when their own dies.
  
• unlike owners of IRAs who can spread their RMDs over a life expectancy (26 years or longer), beneficiaries (those who inherit IRAs) must deplete those IRAs in ten years.
• one word: wow.
  

The Bakken Revolution -- August 7, 2024

Locator: 46940B.

Tag: natural gas. 

Link here.

Good Morning From North Texas -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46939ARCHIVES.

Texas eclipse: too bad the eclipse is not today -- beautiful, beautiful day -- sunny, bright, no clouds, balcony door wide open to let the air in; room temperature, 78°P; balcony temperature, 63°P. If I squint just hard enough and look northeast, I can just barely make out Abydos. LOL. Long story.

Scotch: incredible wonderful, if faint, aroma -- at first not sure where it was coming from -- faint hint of recent mulch that might have been applied to ground around trees; but, then -- an almost-empty small thimble-of-a-glass with a bit of un-drunk Scotch from last night.

Years ago, I spent one full year -- I talked about it on the blog, I believe -- researching Scotch. Another long story. But after years of reading about Scotch and then spending years in England and months along the Scottish border, I finally decided it was time to learn. It was a great year, and very, very rewarding. 

In our local area there are several incredible outlets with extensive Scotch offerings. My favorite Scotch from the island if Islay -- peaty Scotch. I really find any other Scotch quite boring. If peaty Scotch is "ranked" 1 to 5 with 1 being lowest degree of peatiness, I probably like Scotch with a peatiness of 3, possibly even 4. I've had a "5" and at the time it was too peaty for me, but I bet I would enjoy it now. Laphroaig: "la-frog" -- or I suppose, call it "leap-frog" which is now impossible to unread. LOL. Link here.

Breakfast: I bought a brand new waffle maker last week -- the old one finally died. This is a huge waffle maker! "Dash" brand if that means anything. And breakfast on the balcony. North Texas has six wonderful months. Three months are way too hot -- which I love for the pool -- and three months way too cold which I don't enjoy for any reason. 

Books today: lots of reading. Byron top of the list. The first chapter in the new book begins with the letter he wrote to "my dear Elizabeth." So many times I've wondered about the relationship among Elizabeth, Mary, and Anne (Biblical). Notes / graphics posted here. 

Genealogy: John the Baptist and Jesus were cousins of some sort, most likely not brothers, but that's a remote possibility. The bible only says their mothers, Elizabeth and Mary, were relatives -- most likely aunt and neice, but even so could have been "of same generation." 

When Elizabeth's mother, Elisheba married Aaron, she united the two tribes, the Levites and the tribe of Judah. By doing so, she was the mother of the entire Levitical Priesthood.

Whom did Elisheba, the grandmother of John the Baptist marry? She married Aaron. Arron? A brother of Moses and the spokesman for Moses. 

Of all the tribes, the Levites were the only ones that did not receive land as their inheritance. Their inheritance: the priesthood. 

I'm sure others have their own understanding of the genealogy, and I could much of it wrong. That's fine. But this is nice scaffolding to help me understand the reason for the names of English queens. 

By the way, Anne? Nowhere in the Bible does it state whose Mary's mother was but sources that did not become part of the Biblical canon say that Mary's mother was Anne.

Does anyone ever wonder how "modern" -- or perhaps better stated, "western names" -- all these names sound? From Elisheba -- not modern -- but her daughter -- Elizabeth -- very modern. 

By the way: "El" -- God.

"Beth" -- home.

In Williston where I grew up and where my Dad lived out his final years, there was an incredible nursing home, Bethel Lutheran. I never thought about the name, Bethel, until later in life.

Back to Anne. I would have thought Anne was entirely Anglicized but this source suggests both "Anne" and "Hannah" were Hebrew names. These certainly are not Arabic or northern African names, or even the names we commonly come across in The Odyssey and The Iliad. Penelope? Priam? Achilles? Menelaus?

That's why I tell Sophia and her sisters: never quit reading. I'm reading Byron today, but I'm stopped at the very third word in the first chapter, "my dear Elizabeth." I'll never get through this book. LOL.

And speaking of never getting through a book, I am still reading Normn Mailer's The Naked and the Dead. I don't think a day goes by that I'm not thinking about the book and yet I haven't read any of it in a couple of weeks. My notes are here, so it's easy to bring myself up to speed when I start reading it again.

Okay, now to the news, but we'll post that in a separate stand-alone post.

The CLR Veigel Wells In Rattlesnake Point

Locator: 46938B.

The CLR Veigel wells.

The parent well:

The daughter wells:

The maps:

Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46937B.

The wells: 

• 40140, conf, CLR, Veigel 7-9H1, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 39466, conf, Hess, EN-Erickson-157-93-1003H-3, Sorkness,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	10407	14482
1-2024	12234	19484
12-2023	9431	8901
11-2023	14512	15405
10-2023	12243	0

• 40139, conf, CLR, Veigel 6-9H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40073, conf, Neptune Operating, Britt 4-9 6H, Elk,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	15814	12763
1-2024	15281	9974
12-2023	9947	5532

• 39548, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-98-13B-24-1H, Little Knife, npd,
• 39070, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7-3H, Foreman Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	15399	14024
1-2024	9011	7611
12-2023	20708	17692
11-2023	22403	9211
10-2023	6256	3638

• 37516, conf, BR, Mazama 4A UTFH, Elidah, npd,
• 40138, conf, CLR, Veigel 5-9H1, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 40072, conf, Neptune Operating, Britt 4-9 5H, Elk,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	16873	13320
1-2024	16213	10381
12-2023	11077	6362

• 39579, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-8, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	18158	65998
1-2024	23655	49985
12-2023	18889	43425
11-2023	36641	79865
10-2023	22036	45941

• 39578, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-7, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	12061	56167
1-2024	15890	40163
12-2023	19302	36382
11-2023	26303	44273
10-2023	20624	23668

• 39549, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-98-13A-24-2H, Little Knife,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	6838	0

• 40137 conf, CLR, Veigel 4-9H, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 39464, conf, Hess, EN-Erickson-157-93-1003H-2, Sorkness,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	9691	13593
1-2024	11110	17441
12-2023	11423	11739
11-2023	15070	22449
10-2023	15009	0

• 38009, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth21-29 MBH, Corral Creek, npd,
• 40136, conf, CRL, Veigel 3-9H1, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 40232, conf, Empire ND, Wigeon 29-1 1H, Starbuck,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	2537	0
1-2024	2892	0
12-2023	3833	0

• 40135, conf, CLR, Veigel 2-9H, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 38010, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 31-29TFH, Corral Creek, npd,
• 36084, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H9, Blue Buttes,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	19747	44656
1-2024	24898	28870
12-2023	30723	42732
11-2023	33350	61838
10-2023	29926	45136

• 38011, conf, BR, CCU Plymouuth 34-29MBH, Corral Creek, npd,
• 37484, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 5-36H, Lone Butte, npd,
• 35076, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 6B, Camp,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	28651	36215
1-2024	28673	34456
12-2023	31801	40379
11-2023	26588	32138
10-2023	17379	18559

• 35075, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 5B, Camp,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	30875	39203
1-2024	23003	25997
12-2023	25108	30482
11-2023	30461	36314
10-2023	20209	21806

• 20860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1HR, Little Knife, npd since re-entry;
• 39782, conf, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 37471, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 4-36H, Lone Butte, npd,
• 39783, conf, CLR, Thorvald 7-6H1, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 38012, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29 TFH, Corral Creek, npd,
• 39784, conf, CLR, Thorvald 8-6HSL, Cedar Coulee, npd,
• 38973, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H, Lone Butte, npd,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46936B.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter, 236 for the year 
40140, conf, CLR, Veigel 7-9H1,
39466, conf, Hess, EN-Erickson-157-93-1003H-3,

Tuesday, April 16, 2024: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 234 for the year
40139, conf, CLR, Veigel 6-9H,
40073, conf, Neptune Operating, Britt 4-9 6H,
39548, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-98-13B-24-1H,
39070, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7-3H,
37516, conf, BR, Mazama 4A UTFH,

Monday, April 15, 2024: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter, 229 for the year
40138, conf, CLR, Veigel 5-9H1,
40072, conf, Neptune Operating, Britt 4-9 5H,
39579, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-8,
39578, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-7,
39549, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-98-13A-24-2H,

Sunday, April 14, 2024: 25 for the month; 25 for the quarter, 224 for the year 
None.

Saturday, April 13, 2024: 25 for the month; 25 for the quarter, 224 for the year
40137 conf, CLR, Veigel 4-9H,
39464, conf, Hess, EN-Erickson-157-93-1003H-2,
38009, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth21-29 MBH,

Friday, April 12, 2024: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter, 221 for the year
40136, conf, CRL, Veigel 3-9H1,

Thursday, April 11, 2024: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 220 for the year
40232, conf, Empire ND, Wigeon 29-1 1H,
40135, conf, CLR, Veigel 2-9H,
38010, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 31-29TFH,
36084, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H9, 

Wednesday, April 10, 2024: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter, 216 for the year
38011, conf, BR, CCU Plymouuth 34-29MBH,
37484, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 5-36H,
35076, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 6B,
35075, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 5B,
20860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1HR,

Tuesday, April 9, 2024: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 211 for the year
39782, conf, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H,
37471, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 4-36H,

Monday, April 8, 2024:10 for the month; 10 for the quarter, 209 for the year
39783, conf, CLR, Thorvald 7-6H1,
38012, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29 TFH,

Sunday, April 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter, 207 for the year
39784, conf, CLR, Thorvald 8-6HSL,

Saturday, April 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 206 for the year
38973, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H,