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Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Clearing Off The Desk, Part 2 -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46909B.

Immigration: the $7 trillion gift. Link here.

Don't you just love politics? Biden may lift the LNG permit pause to win Ukraine aid. Link here. Charles Kennedy so you know it's gotta be good.

US oil companies stealing market share from OPEC. Link here.

TSM:

Fed rate cut, current buzz:

PSX -- Dividend Raised -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46908PSX.

Zacks: link here.



When was the last time Warren Buffett paid a dividend?

Clearing Off The Desk, Part 1 -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46907MISC.

Inflation watch: another great example. The "standard" price is $5.88 in the local area, so $5..99 is a bit on the high side, but look at that, four for fourteen dollars.

  • regular price: 4 x $5.88 = $23.52
  • sale price: 4 for for $14.00

Wiretapping? This is brilliant. I wish I had been the lawyer who thought of this. This is a no-brainer. I personally like marketing folks tracking my web surfing: I know I'm always going to get ads. I just prefer ads that provide value to me not random ads. I remember vividly, decades ago getting ads for male-enhancement drugs. I don't get those adds any more. I get ads for Lego, which I prefer.

Basketball television ratings: this is why college athletes need to get paid. Caitlyn Clark, alone, was probably responsible for adding a million or two viewers. Link here.

For investors concerned about inflation, be careful for what you ask. Even a little deflation is a whole lot worse than a bit of inflation. Link here.

For those asking the question, are you better off now than you were four years ago? Link here. Over the last five years, household net worth has grown by 50%.


Chevron, Hess, XOM, and Guyana
: I have never understood all the excitement. Link here.

Landings. See my earlier blog on this. Now, another one.

For the Dutch, reality sucks. Link here. I wonder if folks know why?

Eight New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed; On DRY Hole -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46906B.

WTI: $85.43.

Active rigs: 38.

Eight new permits, #40634 - #40642, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (6); Hunt Oil (2)
  • Fields: East Fork (Williams); Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for six wells in SWSE 14-156-99, four Vandeberg (sic) wells and four Christopherson wells, 
      • all to be sited 232 FSL and between 2005 FEL and 2197 FEL;
    • Hunt Oil has permits for two Oakland wells, NWNW 32-154-89, 
      • both to be sited 445 FNL with one to be sited 10015 FWL and the other 1045 FWL

One producing well (a DUC) was reported completed:

  • 39726, 1,558, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HD, Dunn County;

Dry hole:

  • 40422, dry, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 6H, McKenzie County;

Replying To A Reader Re: Investing And Intel -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46905INV.

This is in response to a comment from a reader regarding Intel. 

I'm probably one of the worst investors ever but like Buffett, I'm hoping to live a long life that will make up for all the mistakes I've made since 1984. LOL.

I could afford to be a lousy investor: non-investing life decisions / life outcomes played a much bigger role than any investing acumen. Like no divorce. LOL.

Anyway, I was a passive investor for most of my life -- investing in mutual funds, for example.

It wasn't until around 2011 (or maybe it was 2009 or 2010 when I got into a discussion with my son-in-law who was going to Harvard Business School at the time. We were discussing Netflix vs Roku, a discussion that I posted on the blog back in 2011 or thereabouts.

It was then that I started a segment on the "next big thing," and my first "next big thing" was Netflix. This was back in 2011 or thereabouts. Possibly a year earlier.

Many years later, knowing nothing about the Permian, I did a deep dive into small operators there and for me, "the next big thing" coming out of the Permian was Devon. In the big scheme of things, I was correct, but the stock market did not reward me as expected, and I got out.

Some years later I stumbled on Nvidia. It's a long story. I think I posted that story in bits and pieces on the blog, but I can't remember. Finding / noting / seeing  Nvidia was serendipity -- no one was talking about it -- but before I invested in Nvidia I did a deep dive into technology (semiconductor chips) and, wow, incredibly beneficial. At the same time, I happened to come across a book -- I'll look it up later -- but I think it was called Chip Wars. Learned everything I needed to know about investing as far as I was concerned at that moment and picked seven chip-related companies based on what I read. The best thing: from that book and some superficial wiki research I knew to stay away from Intel. 

With regard to the seven chip-related stocks: I was wrong on one (SNOW) and missed two: MSFT and MU. A reader brought attention one (AVGO) for which I am eternally grateful. 

Regardless of the investing, the "deep dives" were so incredibly rewarding. Because of the "deep dives" I understand:

  • the Permian (I understood thee Bakken through the blog);
  • streaming, OTT, Netflix, the current Disney story; and,
  • semiconductors -- design to manufacture

So, understanding something is more rewarding / more important than the investing per se, if that makes sense.

So, since 2007, I've done "deep dives" in four sectors, looking for the next big thing. 

I'm not sure where I'll go next and it may be years before I find something worth another "deep dive." 

A satisfactory "deep dive" requires time alone on a balcony overlooking Flathead Lake.

With regard to Intel: I won't "invest" in it but for some it's going to be huge as a trading stock. There's a lot of "legacy" investors in that company and that alone will provide some "soft floors" as they say.

Maybe more later.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

SCCO -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46904INV.

Up 36% in the past month. Pays more than 3% who bought earlier.


Another option: MMFs.

SCCO vs BRK, five years:


And, SCCO paid a dividend all those years.

**************************
1Q24

Return:

  • S&P 500: 9.76175% appreciation
  • the mutual fund I've had forever and hate the most: 8.39788%

Investing -- April 2, 2024

Locator: 46899INV.

This is not my portfolio. This is where I put new money.  I have a fairly robust revenue stream even in retirement. I limit the list to less than twenty ticker symbols. I re-evaluate the list every quarter.

Obviously I make changes if conditions warrant. 

This was the list I put together on January 1, 2024.

At the end of each quarter I raise more cash by tax-loss harvesting. 

I am in the process of making changes in the spreadsheet for 2Q24. 




Explaining The Bump In Heavier Crude Oil In North Dakota -- RBN Energy -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46902B. 

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in supply increased (needs to be fact-checked) by 3.2 million bbls; inventories are 2% below the five-year average
  • refiners: 88.6%
  • jet fuel: up 1.2%

AAPL:

Personal investing:

  • by rule, CAT, VZ, and UNP
  • by rule, I cannot buy any more AAPL
  • by rule, sold CIVI

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $85.92. Let's call it $86!

Thursday, April 4, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 203 for the year
36083, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-10,

Wednesday, April 3, 2024: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 202 for the year
36082, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-11,

RBN Energy: explaining the bump in heavier crude oil production in Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota. Archived.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently raised a few eyebrows across the energy industry with a report that producers in three key shale states — including Texas, the nation’s #1 oil producer — seem to be extracting larger amounts of “heavier” crude oil. Of course, the oil is only heavier relative to the light and superlight grades that have been produced in copious amounts since the dawn of the Shale Revolution. But these denser, lower-API volumes have recently helped drive growth in total crude output. In today’s RBN blog, we unpack what the EIA discussed in its writeup, explore some of the possible drivers behind the apparently heavier oil production, and discuss what it might mean for the domestic market.

Goldilocks -- No Hard Landing, No Soft Landing -- It Was A Touch And Go -- Only Question: Rate Of Climb -- Another Go-Around Or To Infinity And Beyond? April 3, 2024

Locator: 46901ECON.

1. Exhibit A, link here. And, here.


2. Exhibit B, link here.

3. Exhibit C, jobs:

4. Exhibit D, GDPNow:

5. Exhibit E, oil:

  • too expensive for Biden to refill
  • Mideast heating up -- that Israeli attack on Damascus consulate killing top three generals just beginnning to sink in
  • gasoline surging; summer driving season has not yet begun

6. Taiwan earthquake, transient effect on chips

  • less than 12 hours later, TSM surges

7. Bottom line, June, 2024:

  • US economy on fire
  • China becomes more and more irrelevant
  • no Fed cut in June; no Fed cut this year
  • Biden to tap SPR again this summer
  • WTI trends toward $90 and that could be way too cautious