Replying To A Reader Re: Investing And Intel -- April 3, 2024

Locator: 46905INV.

This is in response to a comment from a reader regarding Intel. 

I'm probably one of the worst investors ever but like Buffett, I'm hoping to live a long life that will make up for all the mistakes I've made since 1984. LOL.

I could afford to be a lousy investor: non-investing life decisions / life outcomes played a much bigger role than any investing acumen. Like no divorce. LOL.

Anyway, I was a passive investor for most of my life -- investing in mutual funds, for example.

It wasn't until around 2011 (or maybe it was 2009 or 2010 when I got into a discussion with my son-in-law who was going to Harvard Business School at the time. We were discussing Netflix vs Roku, a discussion that I posted on the blog back in 2011 or thereabouts.

It was then that I started a segment on the "next big thing," and my first "next big thing" was Netflix. This was back in 2011 or thereabouts. Possibly a year earlier.

Many years later, knowing nothing about the Permian, I did a deep dive into small operators there and for me, "the next big thing" coming out of the Permian was Devon. In the big scheme of things, I was correct, but the stock market did not reward me as expected, and I got out.

Some years later I stumbled on Nvidia. It's a long story. I think I posted that story in bits and pieces on the blog, but I can't remember. Finding / noting / seeing  Nvidia was serendipity -- no one was talking about it -- but before I invested in Nvidia I did a deep dive into technology (semiconductor chips) and, wow, incredibly beneficial. At the same time, I happened to come across a book -- I'll look it up later -- but I think it was called Chip Wars. Learned everything I needed to know about investing as far as I was concerned at that moment and picked seven chip-related companies based on what I read. The best thing: from that book and some superficial wiki research I knew to stay away from Intel. 

With regard to the seven chip-related stocks: I was wrong on one (SNOW) and missed two: MSFT and MU. A reader brought attention one (AVGO) for which I am eternally grateful. 

Regardless of the investing, the "deep dives" were so incredibly rewarding. Because of the "deep dives" I understand:

• the Permian (I understood thee Bakken through the blog);
• streaming, OTT, Netflix, the current Disney story; and,
• semiconductors -- design to manufacture

So, understanding something is more rewarding / more important than the investing per se, if that makes sense.

So, since 2007, I've done "deep dives" in four sectors, looking for the next big thing. 

I'm not sure where I'll go next and it may be years before I find something worth another "deep dive." 

A satisfactory "deep dive" requires time alone on a balcony overlooking Flathead Lake.

With regard to Intel: I won't "invest" in it but for some it's going to be huge as a trading stock. There's a lot of "legacy" investors in that company and that alone will provide some "soft floors" as they say.

Maybe more later.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.