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Thursday, February 15, 2024

Six New Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed; XTO With Several Huge Wells; Active Rigs At 40 -- Note: It's February -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46829B.

WTI: $78.09.

Active rigs: 40.

Six new permits, #40516 - #40523, inclusive:

  • Operators: BR (3); Neptune Operating, Slawson, Zavnna
  • Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); Briar Creek (Williams); Big Bend (Mountrail); and Epping (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • BR has permits for two Keene wells and one Franklin well, SWSW 36-147-97; 
      • to be sited 589 FSL and between 272 FWL and 362 FWL;
    • Neptune has a permit for a Foster well, lot 3, seciton 4-152-104, 
      • to be sited 441 FNL and 1855 FWL;
    • Slawson has a permit for a Fisherman well, NWNW 21-152-91, 
      • to be sited 1001 FNL and 560 FWL;
    • Zavanna has a permit for a Collie well SWSE 13-155-100, 
      • to be sited 859 fsL and 1646 FEL

One permit canceled:

  • 38054, XTO, Wood 21X-25G, Williams County

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35211, 1,500, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5H, Dunn County;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331822438209862511140361139347862
BAKKEN11-2023740083171666456605126525
BAKKEN10-20234249099586520652
  • 35217, 1,977, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, Dunn County;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202300420000
BAKKEN11-202331561149235116401164
  • 35218, 3,156, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, Dunn County; 20 southeast of Watford City; sited in section 5-148-97; a six-well pad; middle Bakken; sections  34, 27, and 23-149-97; three-section-long horizontal; 20.5 total drilling days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331108340108634534331693411681181040
BAKKEN11-2023370705704534993148820478
BAKKEN10-20235550095078590859
  • 35219, 714, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, Dunn County;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331822438209862511140361139347862
BAKKEN11-2023740083171666456605126525
BAKKEN10-20234249099586520652
  • 39698, 3,149, XTO, North John Elk 28-27HB, Dunn County; npd,

The XTO Teddy Federal Wells, North Fork, Dunn County

Locator: 46828B.

The Teddy Federal wells are tracked here.

The wells:

  • 35211, 1,500, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5H, Dunn County;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331822438209862511140361139347862
BAKKEN11-2023740083171666456605126525
BAKKEN10-20234249099586520652
  • 35217, 1,977, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, Dunn County;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202300420000
BAKKEN11-202331561149235116401164
  • 35218, 3,156, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, Dunn County; 20 southeast of Watford City; sited in section 5-148-97; a six-well pad; middle Bakken; sections  34, 27, and 23-149-97; three-section-long horizontal; 20.5 total drilling days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331108340108634534331693411681181040
BAKKEN11-2023370705704534993148820478
BAKKEN10-20235550095078590859
  • 35219, 714, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, Dunn County;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331822438209862511140361139347862
BAKKEN11-2023740083171666456605126525
BAKKEN10-2023424909958652065
  • 35216, AB/SI, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5A, North Fork, npd,
  • 35215, IA/SI, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5EXH, North Fork, npd,
  • 19908, 1,308, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5, North Fork, t8/11; cum 321K 4/23; offline;
    BAKKEN6-20230000000
    BAKKEN5-20230000000
    BAKKEN4-2023132809941287096500
    BAKKEN3-20233110701021228212218350
    BAKKEN2-20232810351029427210918210
    BAKKEN1-20233110481037568245521190
    BAKKEN12-20223112031117554248721520
    BAKKEN11-20223012491269466264423180

 

Did The Fed Wait Too Long; The Widening Gaps Between Main Street And Wall Street; Between Main Street And Oak Street -- Part 2 -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46827ECON.

Local weather: incredibly hot and this is February!?

It's looking like a short squeeze.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

The Director's Cut: will be posted at 3:00 p.m. CT. I won't post the data until later this evening due to family commitments. Link here.

The market: as I write this, the US equity markets are on a tear. 

  • The Dow is up over 300 points. The. S&P 500 is up 23 points. NASDAQ fairly flat -- AAPL is still negative but it's off it's lows for the day when I acquired more shares of AAPL today. When the 7:30 a.m. ET data was released, it was predictable that the market would be up in response. I did not expect it to be this fast and this much.
  • the S&P 500 will be close to another record close. 
  • even the Russell 2000 is looking really, really good.

Economic data today as well as today's GDP Now 1Q24 estimate raises one question and two observations:

  • the question: has the Fed waited too long to cut rates? The answer: yes.
  • the two observations:
    • the gap between Wall Street and Main Street is widening; and,
    • the gap between Main Street and Oak Street is also widening.

We'll talk about this later tonight if we have time, but I think anyone paying attention can see what I'm seeing.

UNP: the only ticker that fascinates me today.

BRK: selling AAPL -- BRK's equity portfolio is showing a decline "every" day AAPL is down, even if the overall market is up

Breaking news from AAPL. AAPL now surges after hours. It's a nerdy report but it's huge. Wow, wow, wow -- thrilled with my AAPL move today. Whoo-hoo. After hours AAPL is now 

AMAT: surges. Really surges. Great earnings report. AMAT makes the chips others design. Huge beat.

Trade Deks Inc: surges; beats on revenue; misses on earnings, but guidance and buyback exciting; shares up over 24%.

ROKU: down 14% after hours; after earnings. Not a bit surprising. Time to start thinking what the "tired US consumer is going to cut first."

AAPL is now up $1.66 after hours and back above $185. Whoo-hoo.  [Later: fell back to what it was at the close. Apple's breaking news was too nerdy, too techie. And too little, too late.

BRK: has a problem. Even on days the Dow surges, Warren's equity portfolio could be in the red.

  • I'm not talking about the market value of the entire BRK company; I'm just talking about his equity portfolio
    • the entire BRK company includes many fully-owned subsidiaries like Geico and BNSF (the railroad)
    • with 40% of his equity portfolio tied up in AAPL and upwards of 30% of his portfolio tied up in legacy companies that are relatively flat, it is impossible for his equity portfolio to be in the green on most days when the overall market is green if AAPL is in the red; and especially if energy is in the red.
  • he's frustrated and that led to selling some of his AAPL; more of an emotional move than a rational trade;
    • had it been rational, he could have done just as well investing an equal amount of his cash horde into the "super 6" -- the "magnificent 7 minus Tesla"
    • was it a warning shot for Tim Cook? 
    • Buffett likes dividends and AAPL hoarding cash; WUWT

At the close:

  • the Dow up almost one percent; up
  • the S&P 500, it appears has set a new record -- yes, it did, 5,030 and change

AAPL: surges after hours for techie / nerdy reasons. More later. Now, AAPL is back down near where it was at the close.

NOG: operational update and preliminary guidance. Link here.

  • Fourth quarter 2023 production estimated to be 114.4 Mboe per day, resulting in annual production toward the high end of NOG’s guidance range 
  • Executed on $25 million of opportunistic Ground Game acquisitions in the fourth quarter 
  • Initiating preliminary 2024 production and capital spending guidance 
  • 2024 production guidance implies ~20% year over year growth on a flat capital budget at the midpoint of guidance ranges versus preliminary 2023 actuals (excluding non-budgeted acquisitions) 

So much more, but family commitments!

Later: so much more could be said but time to put this post to an end.

Did The Fed Wait Too Long; The Widening Gaps Between Main Street And Wall Street; Between Main Street And Oak Street -- Part 1 -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46826ECON. 

Personal investing: added to my AAPL position today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

GDP Now: new estimate today. Huge drop after previous -- an anomaly or is the Fed holding back growth?

Down on the farm: most crop prices continue their downward trend. Shares of DE slump (pre-market). US farmers earning less than they did fourteen years ago? Needs to be fact-checked.

Economic data: lots of data released at 7:30 a.m. CT. Huge declines in retail sales. Tired consumer? Biggest decline in a year. My hunch: JPow looking at these numbers closely.  NY Empire State Fed MFG Survey surprisingly strong. Jobless claims 212K vs 220K estimated. Rick Santelli has it right. And speaks clearly. His analysis: too many cross-currents to make sense of what's going on. Housing sector very confusing.

Perplexed: if I had a nickel for every story I've read about high interest rates killing renewable energy, I would have enough money to buy a share of Nvidia. Like this article. But isn't that true for all businesses, the challenge of high interest rates? Why does wind seem to have so much more trouble? Or get so much more attention?

EV: one wonders how long Ford will break out EV sales / financials. There's a reason Apple doesn't break out some segments / products. Another advantage BRK has; hiding details of wholly-owned companies. Link here. This is information Phil LeBeau never covers / addresses with the CEO.

Vision Pro: reminds me of Steve Ballmer when asked about the iPhone.

EVs: Reality Sucks -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46825EVS.

Link here.  The good news: used EVs are going to be very, very affordable. The bad news: cost of battery replacement. A lot of folks are going to get burned. Mostly the lower- and middle-midddle class and the relatively uneducated.

Link here. Average age of light vehicle on US roads today -- 12 years+ -- five years longer than EV before the "entire battery" needs to be replaced at cost of $20,000. After five years of use for your laptop, how long is a full charge lasting? Half what is was when new? You wish.

Apple -- Re-Posting -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46823APPLE.

Anticipating M3 and March, 2024

Updates: link here.

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Tech: CPUs, GPUS, cores, threads and all that jazz --

Apple Silicon: link here.

M3

Apple, a $3-trillion-market cap company. Right, wrong, indifferent, I break it down this way:

  • $1 trillion: hardware with integrated software, e.g., watches, iPhones, laptops, desktops, Vision Pro.
  • $1 trillion: services, e.g., cloud services; TV+; music; Siri; medical (oxygen monitor); apps; browser, maps.
  • $1 trillion: Apple Silicon, the chip division.

TSM Update -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46822TECH.

TSM: looking really good. Shares hit record high after MS lifts Nvidia's price target.  



Japan Surprises; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI Slips -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46821B.

Economic data: lots of data released at 7:30 a.m. CT. Huge declines in retail sales. My hunch: JPow looking at these numbers closely.  NY Empire State Fed MFG Survey surprisingly strong. Jobless claims 212K vs 22K estimated.

Politics: Joe Kernan turns on GOP. Says GOP appears to have no interest in running the US House. References six embarrassing votes. Mike Johnson is no Nancy Pelosi and the Dems are lovin' it. Link here.

Shake Shack: surging

TSM: looking really good. Shares hit record high after MS lifts Nvidia's price target.

Japan's equity markets: looking good. Old story; new story will be linked when it comes available. Back in June, 2023, less than a year ago, Nikkei hit 30,000 a number not seen seen dot-com era of 1990. Now, this week, Nikkei hits 39,000. Remember -- Buffett apparently saw this coming. 9/30 = a 30% jump for the entire market in less than a year.

Stellantis: not so much. Profit slides. "Due primarily to production disruptions and costs related to new labor agreements." Just beginning. Deal included at least 25% wage increases and the re-opening of an iled plant in Illinois, done. But, otherwise, strong earnings across 2023. Shares up 4% in pre-market trading.

Natural gas: down to $1.66; lowest in years; 50% decline in one month. All about the warm winter.

WTI: link here.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.85. Huge build in US oil this past week. A build of 12 million bbls.

Friday, February 16, 2024: 41 for the month; 100 for the quarter, 100 for the year
39115, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-LW-155-94-0508H-1,

Thursday, February 15, 2024: 40 for the month; 99 for the quarter, 99 for the year
39991, conf, CLR, Omlid 12-19H,
39535, conf, Hess, EN-Person A-156-94-1522H-3,

RBN Energy: is 2023 the peak for. re-exports of Canadian heavy crude oil from the Gulf Coast?

Thanks to expanding heavy crude oil production in Western Canada’s oil sands in recent years and increased pipeline access from the region to the U.S. Gulf Coast, re-exports of Canadian heavy crude from Gulf Coast terminals set a record in 2023. With additional production gains on tap in the oil sands, it might seem natural to think that another re-export record is in the works for 2024.
However, assuming the much-delayed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) does indeed start up this year — offering a vastly expanded West Coast outlet for oil sands production — last year’s re-export high might end up being a peak, at least for the number of years it takes for growth in Western Canadian heavy crude production to exceed the capacity of the TMX expansion. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at TMX’s likely impact on Gulf Coast re-exports.