Japan Surprises; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI Slips -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46821B.

Economic data: lots of data released at 7:30 a.m. CT. Huge declines in retail sales. My hunch: JPow looking at these numbers closely.  NY Empire State Fed MFG Survey surprisingly strong. Jobless claims 212K vs 22K estimated.

Politics: Joe Kernan turns on GOP. Says GOP appears to have no interest in running the US House. References six embarrassing votes. Mike Johnson is no Nancy Pelosi and the Dems are lovin' it. Link here.

Shake Shack: surging. 

TSM: looking really good. Shares hit record high after MS lifts Nvidia's price target.

Japan's equity markets: looking good. Old story; new story will be linked when it comes available. Back in June, 2023, less than a year ago, Nikkei hit 30,000 a number not seen seen dot-com era of 1990. Now, this week, Nikkei hits 39,000. Remember -- Buffett apparently saw this coming. 9/30 = a 30% jump for the entire market in less than a year.

Stellantis: not so much. Profit slides. "Due primarily to production disruptions and costs related to new labor agreements." Just beginning. Deal included at least 25% wage increases and the re-opening of an iled plant in Illinois, done. But, otherwise, strong earnings across 2023. Shares up 4% in pre-market trading.

Natural gas: down to $1.66; lowest in years; 50% decline in one month. All about the warm winter.

WTI: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.85. Huge build in US oil this past week. A build of 12 million bbls.

Friday, February 16, 2024: 41 for the month; 100 for the quarter, 100 for the year
39115, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-LW-155-94-0508H-1,

Thursday, February 15, 2024: 40 for the month; 99 for the quarter, 99 for the year
39991, conf, CLR, Omlid 12-19H,
39535, conf, Hess, EN-Person A-156-94-1522H-3,

RBN Energy: is 2023 the peak for. re-exports of Canadian heavy crude oil from the Gulf Coast?

Thanks to expanding heavy crude oil production in Western Canada’s oil sands in recent years and increased pipeline access from the region to the U.S. Gulf Coast, re-exports of Canadian heavy crude from Gulf Coast terminals set a record in 2023. With additional production gains on tap in the oil sands, it might seem natural to think that another re-export record is in the works for 2024.

However, assuming the much-delayed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) does indeed start up this year — offering a vastly expanded West Coast outlet for oil sands production — last year’s re-export high might end up being a peak, at least for the number of years it takes for growth in Western Canadian heavy crude production to exceed the capacity of the TMX expansion. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at TMX’s likely impact on Gulf Coast re-exports.