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Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Aerial Photos And Peanut Butter Cookies -- Januuary 17, 2024

Locator: 46573WHITTEN.

Vern Whitten sent the following today.

Both he and his wife would love to hear from you.

Go to Vern's site to see some great North Dakota / Minnesota photos, and to his wife's site to start sharing recipes!

From Vern today:

So it’s 10 below outside. What to do? How about looking over a few eye catching photos. When you’re done, have some cookies.
My wife BJ loves to cook and specializes in making recipes easy to use. I’ve spent the last week or so working on a Blog with her. It’s not exactly aerial photography but it tastes really good.

The photos: https://vernwhitten.smugmug.com/BEFORE-AND-AFTER. And photos.

The recipes: https://www.bjsrecipes.com/rec/2024/1/7/peanut-butter-cookies

VERN WHITTEN PHOTOGRAPHY
1518 7TH STREET SOUTH
FARGO, ND  58103

E-Mail: whittenaerials@gmail.com
Call: (701) 261-7658

The Strength Of The US Consumer -- January 17, 2024

Re-Posting.

Locator: 46569ECON.

What's missing? Why are US consumers so resilient? I argue that it is has to do with America's free market capitalism. 

Updates

Later, 7:07 p.m. CT

Original Post

Link here.

And from Schwab:

1.9 / 2.4 =  79.2%. I don't know to what extent house sales, mortgages, rental payments contribute to "consumer spending." My hunch: house sales / mortgages and rental. payments were pretty flat q/q.

Consumer resilience:

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19

Charlie Pride

ERCOT Update; Callifornia Trains -- Januuary 17, 2024

Locator: 46572TRAIN.

Nancy Lieberman: before we get started, Nancy Lieberman on local network television, ABC, prior to Mavericks - LA Laker game. Whoo-hoo. 

Even my wife was impressed by her presence. And, now, to watch an NBA basketball game. Another whoo-hoo. Wow, I miss Phil Jackson and all the rest.

Phil Jackson

In 1999, Jackson moved to Los Angeles to coach the Lakers. He convinced the team on his offensive and defensive philosophies, which encouraged Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant to the best seasons of their careers.
The result was three straight NBA championships, something the Laker team had never accomplished before.
In 2004 Jackson left the team to take time off from coaching, but re-joined the Los Angeles Lakers as their head coach on June 14, 2005, less than one year after leaving. Jackson lead the Lakers to two more NBA titles in 2009 and 2010.
Jackson retired from coaching in 2011 as the NBA's career leader in playoff victories and playoff winning percentage, with eleven NBA titles, the most ever by an NBA coach.

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Now, Back To Regular Programming

In round numbers:

  • Texas capacity: 100K
  • Texas demand: 75K
  • ISONE demand: 15K - 25K
  • Question: Is it time for the country to build a high voltage transmission line from Texas to New Hampshire? Most of that excess Texas electricity is coming from wind and solar, unlike that in New England..

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California Trains

Updates here.

Bullet train. Nice update. January 9, 2024. Current cost estimates:

When nearly 53% of voters approved the $10 billion bond to launch the project in 2008, they were told an 800-mile network would be running by 2020, and it would only cost $40 billion. The project footprint has shrunk considerably – some 300 miles – and the most optimistic price tag is $88 billion. The higher end of the estimate, $128 billion, is also pretty optimistic.

LA - LV train: nice update. Link here. The Patch. Developer ready to hire 1,100 workers to start building.

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18

Phil Jackson.

New Permits -- January 17, 2024

Locator: 46571B.

API:

  • forecast: a 2.4 million-bbl draw;
  • in fact, a small increase, 483,000 bbls

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $72.56.

Three new permits, #40454 - #40456, incluusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Wheelock (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for three wells -- a GO-Dustin Brose, and two GO-Beck Living wells, NENE 29-156-98, 
      • to be sited 330 FNL and between 656 FEL and 722 FEL.

Three permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill: a Sorenson Federal permit, a Barracuda permit, and a Fleck permit, all in McKenzie County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35582, SI/A, XTO, Halverson 13X-33H, Capa,
  • 35840, SI/A, XTO, Halverson 13X-33EXH, Alkali Creek (Capa?).

Hope Springs Eternal -- January 17, 2024

Locator: 46570WTI.

Link here


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

GDPNow -- 4Q23

Locator: 46569ECON.

Updates

January 18, 2024: one day later, unchanged. At 2.4. Next estimate, tomorrow, January 19, 2024.

Later, 7:07 p.m. CT

Original Post

Link here.

And from Schwab:

1.9 / 2.4 =  79.2%. I don't know to what extent house sales, mortgages, rental payments contribute to "consumer spending." My hunch: house sales / mortgages and rental. payments were pretty flat q/q.

Consumer resilience:

Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- January 17, 2024

Locator: 46568B.

Houthis: how did this ever happen? 

Trump labels the Houthis as a terrorist group. Biden, soon after coming into office, reverses that and takes the Houthis off the terrorist list. Was anyone paying attention? Did anyone care? Whatever. Yesterday, the Biden administration puts the Houthis back on the terrorist list. What's going on here? LOL. Why did Biden care more about the Houthis than the southern surge? Asking for a friend.

Big story today: CRISPR. Transfuion-dependent beta thalassemia. A list price of $2.2 million in the United States. Link here. Think Covid vaccine. Yeah, the dots connect.

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EVs

Updates

Later, 10:05 p.m. CT: link here.

Later, 10:04 p.m. CT: link here


From the linked article:

Wall Street is downgrading shares of U.S. car manufacturers even though interest rates are set to decline, easing the burden of car payments.
Auto makers also have a new labor deal that brings some certainty about costs.
Still, investors woke up to a trio of car-stock downgrades Wednesday, January 17, 2024.
For starters, UBS analyst Joseph Spak cut his rating on Ford Motor F stock to Hold from Buy. His target for the price stayed at $12 despite the downgrade. The share price has rebounded from its November lows of around $10, set right around the time the United Auto Workers union ratified a new 4½ year labor contract with the Big Three car makers.
Two EV start-ups also caught downgrades. Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner cut his rating on Rivian Automotive stock to Hold from Buy, lowering his price target to $19 from $29 a share. Rivian shares were down 4.9% at $16.94 in early trading.
Fisker  stock is down the most, falling 11% to 86 cents a share after TD Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne cut his rating to Hold from Buy and moved his target price to $1 from $11 a share.

Original Post

Another big story: EVs are cratering. 

  • exhibit A: Rivian. As bad as it's been this past month -- down 31% in the past month -- RIVN is down another 8% today. 
  • winter storm stories not helping. Glut of oil not helping; WTI falling in price. 
  • polls show Americans getting less interested as time goes on
  • Telsa cuts prices; headline over at CNBC (?): EV price war begins. 

Tesla Cybertruck, link here. Do folks really see the Cybertruck as a serious competitor to legacy ICE pickup trucks? Scathing article from The Verge including some "shenanigans."

Rivian, the darling of Wall Street:

F, another EV company, and another darling of Wall Street, similar ticker action:

Another EV company:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.83.

Friday, January 19, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
None.

Thursday, January 18, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
None.

Wednesday, January 17, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
39660, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2803-03H,
39659, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-02H,
39658, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-01H,
39052, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 5B,
38161, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 6-1-17MBH, 

RBN Energy: Trans Mountain expansion will pose a test for US refiners in need of barrels.

The impending startup of Canada’s government-owned Trans Mountain Expansion Project, better known as TMX, will add exit capacity for Western Canadian crude oil production and is expected to redirect at least some of Alberta’s output toward California and Asia and away from its traditional North American markets, including complex refiners in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. Among them, Gulf Coast refiners, who have become the “price-setting” consumers of heavy Western Canadian crude, are expected to be the hardest hit. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the Gulf of Mexico production and imported grades that might become stand-ins for the “lost” Canadian barrels. 

The TMX project aims to add 590 Mb/d of egress capacity for heavy crudes emerging from Western Canada after twinning the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP). As discussed at length in West Coast Pipe Dreams, the Trans Mountain system’s former owner, Kinder Morgan, had promoted the TMX project to the industry more than a decade ago, but only began construction after getting regulatory approvals from the National Energy Board (the predecessor of the Canada Energy Regulator, or CER) in May 2016; Canada’s federal government gave its blessings later that year (see One is the Loneliest Customer).

Major Crude Oil Pipelines Linking Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast

Figure 1. Major Crude Oil Pipelines Linking Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Source: RBN 

TMX (dashed purple line at top left of Figure 1) mainly uses the right-of-way of the existing 300-Mb/d TMP system (dark-purple line) that runs from Edmonton, AB, to the Burnaby Terminal, the Westridge Marine Terminal and the Parkland Fuel refinery — all in the Burnaby, BC, area — and the U.S. border at Sumas, WA, where it connects to Puget Sound Pipeline for delivery to four Washington state refineries. The completed project also will add three new ship berths at the Westridge facility that will boost exports.