The 30-Second Elevator Speech -- The FOMC -- May 1, 2024

Locator: 47024FOMC.

Updates

Mary 2, 2024: amazing. "Everybody" on CNBC is now saying JPow was a lot more dovish than expected. See my original post below.

Original Post

On the day JPow made his May, 2024, FOMC, remarks:

30-second elevator speech with regard to JPow's remarks today:

• JPow may be the most honest person in DC right now
• JPow comes across as very, very conflicted
• deep in his heart, he knows a 25-bp cut was the right thing to do today but the committee was unable to support him unanimously and he ended up "wavering"; but he's conflicted; he will have a sleepless night tonight
• having said that, JPow's comments in response to questions after his prepared remarks were as dovish as he could be under the circumstances
• I believe him when he says the FOMC does not consider the calendar when making decisions (don't take that out of context)
• cynics will argue that the FOMC does indeed consider the calendar when making decisions

Carl Q, Fed #2:

Carl Q, Fed #1:

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The Fed -- May 1, 2024

Previously posted:

Locator: 47020ECON.

I go back and forth on Steve Liesman, over at CNBC. 

Generally, over the years I have had my disagreements with Steve Liesman but for the past year or so, Steve (Liesman) and I have been on the same page. 

And for the past two days, Liesman has been awesome.

He became really, really agitated late this afternoon.

He's had it with talking heads who continue to mention the risk of "stagflation." Finally, someone on "Fast Money" reminded us the definition of "stagflation." The "original" definition was British and was composed of three components: unemployment, inflation, and lack of growth. But, here, the American definition seems to focus on only two components: inflation and lack of growth. 

And inflation, Steve Liesman put it in perspective. He has to see inflation at least 10% before it meets the "inflation" part of "stagflation." And with US unemployment well below 4% and the economy still adding more jobs than workers available (a ratio of 1.32 as of today) certainly doesn't suggest anything near "stagflation.

Back to inflation. The retailers this week across the board have said they need to bring prices down. Certainly not an omen for inflation.

Great question by a talking head on "Fast Money": after today's Starbucks report and the CEO's comments, does anyone really think Starbucks is going to raise prices? LOL.