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Thursday, February 29, 2024

Fisker — A Going Concern —February 29, 2029

Locator: 46631EVS.

Link here.

I’ve never seen a story collapse as fast as the EV story has fallen … in less than two months … January - February.

Now it’s FSR falling 37% on the last day of February.

See EV scorecard here.

On another note: Arrival, UK-EV in bankruptcy.

Lucid update here.

Rivian and Ford now have Tesla Super Charging access. Huge dollars for Elon Musk.

It Wouldn't Change Anything ... But .... February 29, 2024

Locator: 46630TEDDYBEAR. 

If I had all the money in the world, I would make sure that along with at least one real meal each day, I would make sure each child under the age of ten years of age in the Gaza Strip would get a teddy bear (or the appropriate counterpart in this part of the world). 

MDU - ATLAS -- February 29, 2024

Locator: 46629ATLAS.

Link here. Archived here.

This story was behind a paywall over at The Bismarck Tribune. From the linked article:

A major North Dakota utility -- MDU -- says it is being overcharged by a regional grid operator -- SSP -- for the electricity demands related to a power-hungry cryptocurrency mine  -- Atlas -- in the northwest part of the state -- Williston. These costs are being passed on to ratepayers.

Bismarck-based Montana-Dakota Utilities filed a complaint with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in January. The issue is not the demand from the crypto mine itself, but rather the costs for the strain that MDU says the mine's operations are putting on a power line which travels from Grassy Butte to Watford City and serves some of the utility's customers in northwest North Dakota.

This strain creates congestion which occurs due to constraints on transmission infrastructure. It happens when the lowest-cost power cannot be sent to customers without overloading a line, leading to higher prices and causing utilities to sometimes curtail electricity.
MDU says it started incurring the excess costs after the Atlas Power Data Center went into operation last year. That is a 200 megawatt facility which is expected to use 700 megawatts once buildout is complete. It is powered by Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative. For comparison, many recently approved wind farms in North Dakota produce around 150 megawatts of power.

Getting charged for congestion when it happens is normal for a utility, but MDU alleges it is being charged twice for one problem by the Southwest Power Pool, a Regional Transmission Organization that manages the grid -- a market where power is bought and sold. MDU is a part of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, another Transmission Organization, but entered into a contract with SPP, paying it to use some of SPP members' lines in northwest North Dakota......

SPP disputes MDU's complaint in its filings. An SPP spokeswoman declined further comment citing the pending case and pointed the Tribune to its FERC filings.

The first congestion charge comes from the contract MDU has with SPP, and the utility does not object to it. But the second comes as the result of an agreement between SPP and MISO to establish a "market-to-market" mechanism. Energy demands in one RTO region can have large impacts on another due to their proximity. Market-to-markets are put in place to manage this. In this case, SPP used the mechanism to levy a charge against MISO that signaled the need for its members to turn on more electric generation, according to State Public Service Commission Analyst Adam Renfandt. This charge got passed on to MDU. Market-to-market agreements are in place for lines across both RTOs' footprints, ranging from North Dakota to north Texas.....

Much, much, much more at the link.  

***************************************
That's All Very Interesting, But Look At This

Link here.  

Governor Doug Burgum is welcoming crypto mining and data center companies into North Dakota, saying in a January 2022 news release that it will diversify the state’s economy and attract high-paying jobs. However, these companies have come under scrutiny for a variety of reasons, including their high energy use.

Although there are likely close to a hundred crypto mining operations in North Dakota, the six largest ones are Applied Digital with locations in Jamestown and Ellendale, Atlas Power Data Center in Williston, Rainbow Energy in Bismarck, Core Scientific in Grand Forks and Bitzero in Nekoma. These places house many servers with high computing power, requiring much energy to run.

“This major investment in North Dakota will further cement our state’s growing reputation as a hub for data centers and cryptocurrency mining, thanks to our incredibly reliable, affordable and redundant power supply and a climate that lowers cooling costs for data center operations,” Burgum said in the same news release.

North Dakota is considered one of the best states for crypto mining because of its low energy prices, stable energy grid, cool winters to keep the machines cold, low taxes and less government regulation. Commerce Commissioner Josh Teigen said these centers benefit North Dakotans by providing jobs, increasing revenue to the state through taxes, and helping the energy grid...

The top three data centers in North Dakota together consume nearly as much power as every home in the state, according to the New York Times. However, Teigen said these companies are not taking power away from North Dakotans because the state exports over 90% of its electricity.

“We’re never going to see a case where a hospital loses power but the data center is still running,” Teigen said. “There’s a hierarchy of if curtailing needs to happen, what that priority level looks like and data centers are usually, especially on the crypto mining side, the first ones to get shut off.”

A spokesperson for the crypto mining center Core Scientific said it powers down its computers to conserve energy depending on the needs of the local population.

In northwest North Dakota, Atlas Power is being built by FX Solutions Inc. and is set to be the largest data center in the world. However, on June 20, the Williams County Commission told Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative to cut power to Atlas for not complying with building codes.

Much, much, much more at the link. And, not behind a paywall.

Inflation Watch -- February 29, 2024

Locator: 46628INFLATIONWATCH.

Eggs: recent reports suggest eggs are running $3.29 or more for a dozen eggs, and probably much more expensive in downtown NYC. Well, here in north Texas (DFW), this came out today, one ad from Kroger's and one ad from Tom Thumb:



And did you catch that? That's a $1.99 for 18 eggs, which works out to $1.32 for a dozen eggs. Meanwhile, at Target, our neighborhood store is advertising a "new, low rate," $2.89 for a dozen eggs. 

Eggs from "the store" will last about two weeks in the refrigerator (probably longer). Unwashed eggs directly from the farm will last at least eight weeks. At least that's what I was told by a local authority. I certainly wouldn't know but I know my eggs seem to "last forever."

**************************
Meanwhile, At Target Today

Beer: time to stock up. Several brands, not just these three brands were on sale:



 

*******************************
Ketchup

************************
Empty Shelves

I see this only at our neighborhood Target and not at Albertson's, Tom Thumb, Kroger's, or Walmart, all within a three-minute bicycle ride and not at Market Street, a six-minute car drive.

This is not rare. I've noted this for the past year, if not longer. 

New NASDAQ Record Close -- February 29, 2024

Locator: 46627B.

NASDAQ: will close at new record high. Closed at 16,108. Well above the previous record high. This is not trivial. NASDAQ was up 144 points today.

Dow: negative almost all day, but also closed in the green. S&P was up 28 points at the close.

S&P: also a new record close. Hope folks are happy with their MMFs. I just got back from monthly luncheon "discussion" with Schwab. Topic for today: bonds. Presenter: advisor from wholly-owned subsidiary of Schwab, Wasmer Schroeder.  S&P up 28 points; in the old days, the 10:1 ratio would mean a 280 point gain for the Dow. Reminder that Fed rates: they take the escalator when raising rates; they often take the elevator down when lowering rates.

HP Enterprise: says today it does not have enough -- or, there are not enough -- Nvidia blades for what they want to do to meet their strategic goals. Amazing, a company like HP Enterprise would say that. HP beat estimates, but that statement regarding Nvidia has analysts concerned. Remember, META bought "truckloads" of Nvidia blades last year in preparation, and there was another investor -- I forget the name now -- who bought a lot of Nvidia blades not for their own company, but to rent out to others, anticipating a shortage. HP Enterprise down 6% after hours.

Dell: had the opposite story. Had enough Nvidia blades. That's what they said. Up significantly after hours. "Buzz": it was all about having enough Nvidia blades. I have no idea. Just posting what I hear. Dell soared in after-market trading.  Now up almost 20% after hours.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market

Value: both HP and Dell are "cheap" based on PEs.

Industrial sector: that was supposed to be the story all day on CNBC today; hitting a new high in that sector, and CAT did hit a new high -- all of this needs to be fact-checked -- typing on the fly as reported by CNBC -- but with the reports coming from tech companies, all of a sudden CNBC has pivoted from industrial sector to tech sector.

CAT: well, that was accurate -- a new 52-week high.

Cloud storage: I absolutely hate to pay for cloud storage but I do spend a little .... but I resist -- but I can't win .... I keep needing more cloud storage -- but in the big scheme of things, this represents absolutely "nothing," I can only imagine what big users are spending for cloud storage and those data centers are all going to need blades, Nvidia or otherwise.  Speaking of "otherwise" -- AMD.

AMD: also hit a new high today. Below is the close; it continues to move higher after hours.


Blades: the CNBC tech story is quickly turning into a story of "winners" / "losers" based on whether they were prepared for the fourth industrial revolution which was going to require a ton of Nvidia blades.

AAPL: continues to fall, though holding at $180. This has to be worrisome for Tim Cook, though a buying opportunity for others. 

There's only one more tech company to cover. Which one is that? AVGO:

CHRD: most important to me in the energy sector. 


Alabama, the state
: legislature passed and governor will sign a bill to protect IVF providers. This whole issue and how Alabama Supreme Court dealt with it simply boggles the mind. Exactly in what century are Alabamians living? Link here.

Fast Money: already the narrative is starting to change. These folks are almost giddy -- starting with Dell and AMD. One "talking head" says it feels "frothy" and notes Dell has a P/E of 14. Say what? Frothy?

E-mail address: I wonder how many MAGA / Trump folks are giving on-line Fox News their e-mail addresses to read Fox stories? 

I've removed Fox News from my drop-down menu of bookmarks. I think it's hilarious. Majority of Fox followers are huge conspiracy theorists (needs to be fact-checked) and now they need to give Fox News their e-mail addresses to read their news. On top of that, Fox News seems to be obsessed by the TV game show Wheel of Fortune. Speaks volumes of the demographic that follows Fox News. Personally I don't get. Is Trump a secret backer of Wheel of Fortune.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.26.

Active rigs: 40.

Two new permits, #40556 and #40557:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill; CLR
  • Field: Round Prairie (Williams); East Fork (Williams)
  • Comments:

Permit for #40556: note, 2880 acres but six sections. 

Normally, six sections (6 x 640) would be 3840 acres. It turns out that is a standup drilling unit, 2 x 3 with three of the sections along the Montana state line. So, the full three sections would be 1920 acres and the other three sections would total 960 acres or 320 acres along the Montana state border.

The smaller sections: sections 15, 22, and 27.

Two permits renewed:

  • BR: two Boxer permits, Pershing oil field, McKenzie County.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40022, 869, KODA Resources, Stout 1604-1BH, Divide County;
  • 40023, 933, KODA Resources, Stout 1604-2BH, Divide County;
  • 40043, 1,592, CLR, Quale Federal 5-1H2, McKenzie County;

MRO Activity In Bailey -- March, 2024, Hearing Dockets

Locator: 46627BAILEY.

See NDIC hearing dockets for March, 2024.

The maps:


The active wells of interest:

  • 16868, 294, MRO, Knudsvig 24-7H, Bailey, t3/08; cum 207K 12/23;
  • 16764, 473, MRO, Knudsvig 34-7H, Bailey, t12/10; cum 319K 12/23;
  • 19408, 813, MRO, Trinka 41-18H, Bailey, t3/11; cum 214K 12/23;
  • 16923, 279, MRO, Appledoorn 14-19H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 412K 12/23;
BAKKEN1-201831129691293012703103908374445
BAKKEN12-2017311637216507176731134961223297
BAKKEN11-2017301889618655279201224734306626
BAKKEN10-2017151060910470711865685374812
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20172544944512238116228
BAKKEN4-2017305598827947819745
BAKKEN3-20173056029019948717587
  • 24219, 1,327, MRO, Ahern 34-19H, Bailey, t6/13; cum 277K 12/23;

Today: Weight Watchers And Snowflake — 10-Ks Not Helpful — A Gaggle Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- February 29, 2024

Locator: 46626B.

PCE: turned out to be a non-story. 

I can't sort out all the numbers (nor could the talking heads on CNBC (it seemed) but the stock market certainly liked the numbers. Which was surprising. 
Later: good. Sara Eisen is now talking about it. And if anyone can explain it, it will be Sara Eisen.
"We're back in the 2% range but JPow won't see it that way."
So, if JPow won't see it as necessarily good news, why is the market "up" today?
Because ... because ... because ... although the numbers did not change, the trend suggests that JPow won't raise rates this year. That's huge -- the conversation has changed. From "six cuts projected for 2024" to "higher for longer" to "OMG! JPow is ready to raise rates" we're now reassured that "there will be no raises in the Fed rate this year."
That's huge for the market. The market "fears" the unknown; the market can deal with bad news as long as we kind of know where we're headed.

Sara Eisen: wow, she's good. That extra two hours of sleep or extra two hours of preparation is a big, big help. And coming on after Jim Cramer in the morning is an even bigger bonus. And co-hosting with David Faber and Carl Q is huge. Faber, Eisen, Q all seem well-balanced. Not always as reassuring as Louis Rukeyser was, but he had a week to prepare; Sara is doing it on the fly, in real time, day in and day out.

US government shutdown: adults met in Biden's office and came to their senses. Again. But they will have to do it again next week.

SNOW: oh-oh.

WW: a big oh-oh! As in OH-prah!

Semaglutide: backstory. How did all those folks reading 10-Ks in their office all day miss this one. The phase II clinical trial began back in 2008 -- at same time as the Bakken was taking off sixteen years ago, and everyone missed it? Kinda reminds me of Nvidia. But only kinda. 

Tyson: Ozempic is going to drive protein sales.

Duolingo: this has been a breakout surprise for the past week or so. 

I have not missed one day of Duolingo Spanish lessons in 1255 days (1255 / 365 = 3.44 years). Sophia is taking Russian lessons -- she got bored with Spanish with me. LOL.  Free with ads. I pay $89 / year for ad-free version. Love it. Can't speak it; my German is still better. But I can really, really read it. Best thing, for me, about taking Spanish: I'm no longer "upset" by all the Spanish in my daily life as I drive / bike /walk around DFW. Throughout the day I get positive feedback with regard to all the time I spend on Duolingo.  My streak:

EVs:  I was wrong on EVs. But not how you think. Will discuss later this week.

Data Centers: huge story.

Cryptomining: huge story. If you can get past paywall, big story in today's Bismarck Tribune. I have the whole story archived. Will come back to this later. I think it's a bigger story than the Bakken. Don't take that out of context.

Chips: Biden's administration goal -- huge.

Medical care and inflation. I was wrong on this also.  

Pivot: AppleCar to AppleAI. 

Dividends: March (June, September, December) -- the big months for those who like dividends -- and don't we all like dividends.

So much to talk about but it will have to wait. Family commitments. Schwab events -- three events in three days at local office in Southlake, TX.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.70.

Friday, March 1, 2024: 88 for the month; 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year
40008, conf, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H,
40007, conf, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H,
39482, conf, Oasis, Ledahl 5402 42-33 3B,
38699, conf, CLR, Gibb 8-24HSL,
38639, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-5
36278, conf, Enerplus, Fossa 149-93-31D-30H-LL

Thursday, February 29, 2024: 82 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year
40090, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H1,
40005, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 7H,
40004, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 6H,
40003, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 5H,
39490, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 6B,
39489, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 5B,
39488, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 4B,
39487, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 3B,
39486, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 2B,
38700, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H,
38640, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-20017H-2,
37671, conf, Enerplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-35H,
36275, conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-25H-TF

Wednesday, February 28, 2024: 69 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 128 for the year
40027, conf, Dakota Gasification, Coteau 6,
40009, conf, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H,
39940, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-4BH,
39939, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-3BH,
37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H,
36274, conf, Enerplus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF,

RBN Energy: the next decade of the natural gas market balance

Observers of the natural gas market over the past 20 years know that the main story has been one of enormous growth. The Shale Revolution gave new life to the U.S. natural gas sector, leading to the record production levels we are seeing in early 2024. The economy has found many uses for this new gas: increased power generation, more pipeline exports to Mexico, expanded industrial gas usage and — most prominently — the many LNG export facilities that have cropped up since 2016. But with the pause on new LNG export licenses and the push to renewables in the power sector, there’s a looming question of where the new natural gas would go if production continues to expand. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how that new gas might be absorbed, both domestically and internationally, and what continued growth would imply for gas prices and producers in the long term. 

Like economist Adam Smith’s butcher, baker and brewer, upstream producers are motivated by profit rather than benevolence. Therefore, future gas volumes vary drastically with different price assumptions. For the purposes of this blog, we are using a crude oil price that averages $70/bbl, which is in the ballpark of the current price curve. RBN projects that from 2024 to 2035, two-thirds of the growth in U.S. Lower-48 natural gas production will come in the form of associated gas from crude and liquids dominant basins like the Permian and Eagle Ford, so natural gas production growth will be more sensitive to the price of crude than for natural gas. (More on this at the link.)

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Blogging Update -- For The Archives -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46625ARCHIVES.

For reasons I won't discuss for a week or so, I am exhausted. I've kept up with a lot of blogging but have not completed all the postings. I'm not sure I have the energy to do so tonight. We'll see. 

So, bear with me. We'll see. We'll probably post a few more incomplete posts, some musical videos, post some notes about movies and books and move on.

Late Night Notes -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46624?

SNOW: plummets 20%. Did the 10-K warn investors of this possibility? How was this missed? SNOW might have been on my bucket list; I honestly don’t recall, but if it was, it was on my bucket list for less than a month and I hold no shares in this company and have no plans to start.

White Collar: within that genre, best series ever. Tonight, watching the first of two final episodes for third time in past three months. Clearly as good as the last episode of MASH.

NDIC Hearing Dockets -- March, 2024

Locator: 46623DOCKETS.

March hearing dockets posted.   

Link here.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.

Thursday, March 21, 2024,
Fourteen Pages

The cases:

  • 30741, Liberty Resources, East Tioga-Bakken and/or Enget Lake-Bakken, to establish four overlapping 2560-acre units, one well on each, Mountrail. 
  • 30742, Zavanna, Stony Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; twwo sells; establish an overlapping 3840-ace unit, two wells; Williams.  Sections 10/11/14/15-155-100 and sections 22/23/26/27/34/35-155-100.
  • 30743, Zavanna, Brooklyn-Bakken and/or Epping-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, two wells on each, Williams.
  • 30744, PetroShale, Mandaree-Bakken, establish an overlapping 640-acree unit, E/2 of section and W/2 of section 11 -149-93; one wells; Dunn County.
  • 30745, Prima Exploration, Smoky Butte-Bakken establish two overlapping 1920-acre units, three wells on each; Divide County.
  • 30746, Hunt Oil, Alexandria-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units, two wells on each, Divide County;
  • 30747, CLR, Crazy Man Creeek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; sections 19/20/29/300-153-99;Williams County. Affects one of my readers IIRC.
  • 30748, CLR, Alexander-Bakken, Patent Gate-Bakken, and/or Spring Creek-Bakken; establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well on each; McKenzie.
  • 30749, Grayson Mill, Painted Woods-Bakken and/or Rosebud-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; four wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Williams County.
  • 30750, Resonance Exploration, Landa, South Landa, and/or West Roth-Madison, establish a 480-acre unit; to drill a multi-lateral horizontal well; Bottineau County.
  • 30751, Empire North Dakota, Starbuck-Madison, to create zones of 640-acre and 12800-acre spacing units for horizontal wells, Bottineau County.
  • 30752, XTO, injection.
  • 30753, XTO, injection.
  • 30754, XTO, injection.
  • 30755, XTO, injection.
  • 30756, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken and/or Burg-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre, one well; Divide County.
  • 30757, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Divide.
  • 30758, KODA Resources, pooling;
  • 30759, KODA Resources, pooling;
  • 30760, KODA Resources, pooling;
  • 30761, Liberty Resources, pooling;
  • 30762, Liberty Resources, pooling;
  • 30763, Liberty Resources, pooling;
  • 30764, Liberty Resources, pooling;
  • 30765, Liberty Resources, pooling;
  • 30766, EOG, pooling;
  • 30767, Rockport, pooling;
  • 30768, Rockport, pooling;
  • 30769, Rockport, pooling;
  • 30770, Hunt, commingling; 
  • 30771, Hunt, commingling; 
  • 30772, Hunt, commingling; 
  • 30773, Hunt, SWD;
  • 30774, Phoenix, risk penalty legalese;
  • 30775, CLR, pooling; 
  • 30776, CLR, pooling; 
  • 30777, CLR, pooling; 
  • 30778, Grayson Mill, pooling; 
  • 30779, Grayson Mill, pooling; 
  • 30780, Grayson Mill, pooling; 
  • 30781, Grayson Mill, ten wells on an existing 1280-existing unit, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, McKenzie. Sections 15/22-150-99. Affects one of my readers IIRC.
  • 30782, Zavanna, Long Creek-Bakken, two wells on an existing ovelapping 2560-acre unit, Williams County; 
  • 30783, Zavanna, Epping-Bakken, ten wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Williams.
  • 30784, XTO, commingling;
  • 30785, XTO, commingling;
  • 30786, XTO, commingling;
  • 30787, XTO, commingling;
  • 30788, Open A Partners, SWD;
  • 30789, Deep Creek Adventures, SWD;

Wednesday, March 20, 2024 
Nine Pages

The cases

  • 30718, NDIC, McGregory Buttes-Bakken; establish spacing.
  • 30719, Hess, Manitou-Bakken, establish, overlapping standup 1280-acre spacing, two wells on each; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Mountrail County;
  • 30720, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit, five wells; establish an overlapping laydown 3840-acre unit; one well; Williams County;
  • 30721, Oasis, Tioga, Beaver Lodge, and.or West Bank-Bakken establish an overlapping laydown 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams.
  • 30722, Petro-Hunt, Powers Lake, East Tioga, and.or Tioga-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well, Mountrail County;
  • 30723, NDIC, termination of the Eland East-Lodgepole unit, Stark County.
  • 30724, Hess, pooling;
  • 30725, Hess, pooling;
  • 30726, Hess, pooling;
  • 30727, Hess, pooling;
  • 30728, Hess, commingling, 
  • 30729, Hess, commingling, 
  • 30739, Hess, commingling, 
  • 30731, Hess, commingling, 
  • 30732, Hess, commingling, 
  • 30733, Oasis, pooling; 
  • 30734, Oasis, commingling
  • 30735, BR, commingling,
  • 30736, BR, commingling,
  • 30737, True, pooling
  • 30738, MRO, pooling;
  • 30739, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, nine wells  on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn County;
  • 30740, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, eight wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn County;

Five New Permits -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46934SPARE.

NDIC hearing dockets posted today.

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $78.13.

Five new permits, #40551 - #40555, inclusive:

  • Operators: Grayson Mill (2), Slawson, CLR, Enerplus
  • Fields: Cow Creek (Williams); Big Bend (Mouuntrail); East Fork (Williams); and, Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has permits for two Tufto wells, NENW 18-155-100, 
      • one to be sited 386 FNL and 1871 FWL and the other 386 FNL and 2021 FWL;
    • Slawson has a permit for a Fisherman well, NWNW 21-152-91,
      • to be sited 1001 FNL and 460 FWL; 
    • CLR has a permit for a Sandhill well, SESW 13-156-99, 
      • to be sited 315 FSL and 2135 FWL;
    • Enerplus has a permit for a Danielle well, SWSE 12-145-97, 
      • to be sited 292 FSL and 2272 FEL;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40051, 709, CLR, Harms East Federal 6-33H2,

He's A Private Citizen -- Just Like The Rest Of Us -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46934SPARE.

Link here. For the archives.

Anglo-Saxon history of Britain: I continue to update notes on this history. The map of Britain in 600 AD is most remarkable.

More money than God, link here. For the archives. Former president Trump could bank $7 billion on his meme-SPAC stock.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46933GASOLINEDEMAND.

Link here.

  • US crude oil: increased by 4.2 million bbls; 447.2 million bbls; one-percent below the average;
  • imports: 2.3% more than last year
  • refiners: 81.5%; last week it had a 80-handle, so somewhat better, but probably not significantly different
  • distillate fuel decreased a bit; inventories are 8% below the average and spring planting season underway
  • jet fuel supplied was up 2.9% from same period last year.

US gasoline demand

Essay On EVs, Part 4 -- A Snowball Rolling Downhill -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46932EVS.

Part 4 of continuing series on EVs. Part 3 here

This week has been simply amazing -- how fast everything changed. Literally "every" auto manufacturer has delayed plans -- some perhaps permanently, like Apple, Inc.,  -- to develop EVs. Those who say they are still committed to EVs have indicated they will either slow development / production or "pause" for an unspecified amount of time, but probably best measured in years. But, if imagine, with the amount of cash Apple had on hand, and the technology lead they had, and they can't make EVs work financially, what hope is there for everyone else? [By the way, I just heard that firsthand earlier today from an executive with a self-driving truck company here in the DFW area. Her exact quote: "if Apple can't make it work, what hope is there for us?"]

A guest essay in yesterday's on-line edition of The New York Times addressed this issue.

At first I thought it was a news story but by the third paragraph I realized it was an op-ed.

The writer was so far off base I quit reading after the fifth or sixth paragraph and, instead, read the comments. EVs? It's become a religion or a cult. The science no longer matters. It doesn't even matter if environmentally EVs are worse than ICE vehicles. None of that matters. It's not even political any more. Most will disagree me on that, but that's fine. They will say its political; it's not. It's a religious argument. Neither political party has a monopoly on "stupid."

The good news: Ford has a secret team working on an inexpensive car. Apple had a secret team working on its EV also.

Cash on hand:


Back to the op-ed:

The fact that Robinson Meyer put that in his op-ed tells me all I need to know about Robinson Meyer. He has no clue about free market capitalism. He knows nothing about margins.

An inexpensive car won't make money for the auto manufacturer. Even Apple said it quit its EV plans when they realized the margins weren't there even on a $100K car. An inexpensive car simply means Ford will lose less money on each EV it sells.

The best niche for EVs of the future. Buc-ee's Land Cruisers, Inc. Buc-ee's will transport cars to  vacation destinations, let's say south Florida or southern California and folks will drive their EVs in and around those vacation destination. Buc-ee's will have a 40-acre charging lot next to their Buc-ee's Hotel/Motel and Emporium.

Enerplus "Wild Kingdom" Update -- Initial Production -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46930ENERPLUS.

The "wild kingdom" is tracked here.

The wells:

  • 37671, conf, Enerplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-25H, Phaelens Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20231832720459
11-20232280223734
10-20231496615160
9-20233149228575
8-20236588
  • 36274, PNC/EXP-->loc-->187, Enerplus, Salmon, Phaelens Butte, t8/29/23; 31 stages; 119,032 bbls;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2023312445724476224003389433772122
BAKKEN11-202311404140415802200218515
BAKKEN10-202316148831485514148158491582326
BAKKEN9-2023272693126905494312863827707931
BAKKEN8-20231005332172152

  • 36275, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Sturgeon, Phaelens Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20233306130995
11-20233019529698
10-20232853528463
9-20233763833864
8-20239686
  • 36276, drl/NC-->loc, Enerplus, Lemur, McGregory Buttes,
  • 36277, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Gazelle, McGregory Buttes, 
  • 36278, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Fossa, Mandaree, FracFocus does not have data yet (February 28, 2024)
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-202359355065
11-20232467224786
10-20234254142508
9-20233508935856
  • 36279, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Aardwolf, McGregory Buttes,
  • 36280, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Meerkat, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232887124457
11-20232044516301
10-20231856313582
9-20231233913570
  • 36281, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Elephant, McGregory Buttes,
  • 36282, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Warthog, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232153026517
11-20231912819258
10-20231690319780
9-20231363210329
  • 36283, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Zebra, McGregory Buttes,

A Pleasant Surprise -- WTI Trending Toward $80 -- Vicky Hollub (OXY) Says $40 Is What They Need To "Protect" Dividend -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46929B.

Politics: NYC mayor now calls for an end to "sanctuary city" status. That's too bad. If you're a newly arrived undocumented tourist bent on crime to pay for living expenses, would you prefer to stay in Texas where you know you will end up in jail, or elect to take a state-paid-for bus trip or plane trip to a sanctuary city that offers you free room and board -- particularly if you can come up with a "family"? If one can't connect the dots, perhaps this will help: "human trafficking."

Politics: Mitch McConnell to step down in November, 2024. 

Media: Google's Gemini blunder shows how seriously bad this can go. Even ChatGPT is incredibly susceptible to manipulation.

Random look at dividends for three oil-related companies of interest:

  • ENB:
    • $0.6796
    • since 1988, only one time has ENB's dividend been higher ($0.6896, May, 2021)
  • EPD:
    • $0.515
    • have to go all the way back to 2014 when it was higher, but I wonder if there wasn't a stock split at the time
      • yup, a stock split, August, 2014
    • so, EPD's dividend is at an all-time high
  • SRE:
    • after recent stock split, raised from $0.595 to $0.62, ex/eff date 3/20/24
    • I believe this is also an all-time high

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.22.

Thursday, February 29, 2024: 82 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year
40090, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H1,
40005, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 7H,
40004, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 6H,
40003, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 5H,
39490, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 6B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39489, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 5B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39488, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 4B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39487, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 3B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39486, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 2B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
38700, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H,
38640, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-20017H-2,
37671, conf, Enerplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-35H, Phaelens Butte, tracked here;
36275, conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-25H-TF, Phaelens Butte, tracked here;

Wednesday, February 28, 2024: 69 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 128 for the year
40027, conf, Dakota Gasification, Coteau 6,
40009, conf, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H,
39940, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-4BH,
39939, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-3BH,
37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H,
36274, conf, Enerplus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF,

RBN Energy: Louisiana court ruling gives Formosa Petchem's Sunshine Project a ray of hope.

It’s been nine years since Formosa Petrochemical filed its first permit applications for a proposed $9.4 billion petrochemical complex in Louisiana and, while the greenfield project has faced legal setbacks, it recently posted an important win and may — emphasis on may — eventually make it across the finish line. The Sunshine Project would be massive and consequential, with two steam crackers each capable of consuming 75 Mb/d of ethane, a big propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit and a number of other petchem production facilities that together would employ more than 1,200. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the project and its long and winding road toward potential construction and startup.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Consumer Confidence Index -- February 27, 2024

Locator: 46928ECON.

Another metric to which I pay no attention. 

See the comment from a reader at this post.

Link here.

**************************************
Speaking of Which,
How Has Warren Buffett Done
The Past Six Months?

*************************************
Go, Brandon, Go

Link here.

**********************************
Need More?

Link here. 1Q24 GDP tracking at 3.2%.

******************************
The TV Page

Without question, one of the best -- if not the best -- in this genre: White Collar

The ensemble, second to none..

The writers with a real sense of humor in this drama. 

This series alone is worth the subscription price of Hulu. 

I'll probably re-watch the final two episodes several times. 

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see. 

But The Chinese Can Do It -- Even If The #1 Tech Company In The US Can't -- February 27, 2024

Locator: 46927EVS.

Link here.

Imagine: F, GM, Stellantis, Lucid, Polestar, Rivian, trying to do this when even Apple couldn't. What Elon Musk / Tesla has done in 20 years is incredible.

At the link, be sure to read the social commentary. Some interesting comments about Rivian.

************************************
NVDA vs AMD

Link here.

This is not new or unexpected. This has been pointed out before but in a different format. 

If this is the gap between Nvidia and AMD imagine the gap between Nvidia and the other chip companies.

Another Huge Build -- February 27, 2024

Locator: 46926OIL.

Link here. Another huge bill:


Top retail story of the year (so far)
, link here: