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Thursday, February 29, 2024

Today: Weight Watchers And Snowflake — 10-Ks Not Helpful — A Gaggle Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- February 29, 2024

Locator: 46626B.

PCE: turned out to be a non-story. 

I can't sort out all the numbers (nor could the talking heads on CNBC (it seemed) but the stock market certainly liked the numbers. Which was surprising. 
Later: good. Sara Eisen is now talking about it. And if anyone can explain it, it will be Sara Eisen.
"We're back in the 2% range but JPow won't see it that way."
So, if JPow won't see it as necessarily good news, why is the market "up" today?
Because ... because ... because ... although the numbers did not change, the trend suggests that JPow won't raise rates this year. That's huge -- the conversation has changed. From "six cuts projected for 2024" to "higher for longer" to "OMG! JPow is ready to raise rates" we're now reassured that "there will be no raises in the Fed rate this year."
That's huge for the market. The market "fears" the unknown; the market can deal with bad news as long as we kind of know where we're headed.

Sara Eisen: wow, she's good. That extra two hours of sleep or extra two hours of preparation is a big, big help. And coming on after Jim Cramer in the morning is an even bigger bonus. And co-hosting with David Faber and Carl Q is huge. Faber, Eisen, Q all seem well-balanced. Not always as reassuring as Louis Rukeyser was, but he had a week to prepare; Sara is doing it on the fly, in real time, day in and day out.

US government shutdown: adults met in Biden's office and came to their senses. Again. But they will have to do it again next week.

SNOW: oh-oh.

WW: a big oh-oh! As in OH-prah!

Semaglutide: backstory. How did all those folks reading 10-Ks in their office all day miss this one. The phase II clinical trial began back in 2008 -- at same time as the Bakken was taking off sixteen years ago, and everyone missed it? Kinda reminds me of Nvidia. But only kinda. 

Tyson: Ozempic is going to drive protein sales.

Duolingo: this has been a breakout surprise for the past week or so. 

I have not missed one day of Duolingo Spanish lessons in 1255 days (1255 / 365 = 3.44 years). Sophia is taking Russian lessons -- she got bored with Spanish with me. LOL.  Free with ads. I pay $89 / year for ad-free version. Love it. Can't speak it; my German is still better. But I can really, really read it. Best thing, for me, about taking Spanish: I'm no longer "upset" by all the Spanish in my daily life as I drive / bike /walk around DFW. Throughout the day I get positive feedback with regard to all the time I spend on Duolingo.  My streak:

EVs:  I was wrong on EVs. But not how you think. Will discuss later this week.

Data Centers: huge story.

Cryptomining: huge story. If you can get past paywall, big story in today's Bismarck Tribune. I have the whole story archived. Will come back to this later. I think it's a bigger story than the Bakken. Don't take that out of context.

Chips: Biden's administration goal -- huge.

Medical care and inflation. I was wrong on this also.  

Pivot: AppleCar to AppleAI. 

Dividends: March (June, September, December) -- the big months for those who like dividends -- and don't we all like dividends.

So much to talk about but it will have to wait. Family commitments. Schwab events -- three events in three days at local office in Southlake, TX.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.70.

Friday, March 1, 2024: 88 for the month; 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year
40008, conf, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H,
40007, conf, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H,
39482, conf, Oasis, Ledahl 5402 42-33 3B,
38699, conf, CLR, Gibb 8-24HSL,
38639, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-5
36278, conf, Enerplus, Fossa 149-93-31D-30H-LL

Thursday, February 29, 2024: 82 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year
40090, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H1,
40005, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 7H,
40004, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 6H,
40003, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 5H,
39490, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 6B,
39489, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 5B,
39488, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 4B,
39487, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 3B,
39486, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 2B,
38700, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H,
38640, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-20017H-2,
37671, conf, Enerplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-35H,
36275, conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-25H-TF

Wednesday, February 28, 2024: 69 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 128 for the year
40027, conf, Dakota Gasification, Coteau 6,
40009, conf, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H,
39940, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-4BH,
39939, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-3BH,
37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H,
36274, conf, Enerplus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF,

RBN Energy: the next decade of the natural gas market balance

Observers of the natural gas market over the past 20 years know that the main story has been one of enormous growth. The Shale Revolution gave new life to the U.S. natural gas sector, leading to the record production levels we are seeing in early 2024. The economy has found many uses for this new gas: increased power generation, more pipeline exports to Mexico, expanded industrial gas usage and — most prominently — the many LNG export facilities that have cropped up since 2016. But with the pause on new LNG export licenses and the push to renewables in the power sector, there’s a looming question of where the new natural gas would go if production continues to expand. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how that new gas might be absorbed, both domestically and internationally, and what continued growth would imply for gas prices and producers in the long term. 

Like economist Adam Smith’s butcher, baker and brewer, upstream producers are motivated by profit rather than benevolence. Therefore, future gas volumes vary drastically with different price assumptions. For the purposes of this blog, we are using a crude oil price that averages $70/bbl, which is in the ballpark of the current price curve. RBN projects that from 2024 to 2035, two-thirds of the growth in U.S. Lower-48 natural gas production will come in the form of associated gas from crude and liquids dominant basins like the Permian and Eagle Ford, so natural gas production growth will be more sensitive to the price of crude than for natural gas. (More on this at the link.)

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