The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 11/06/23

Monday, November 6, 2023

Holy Mackerel — Quite A Story — Massachusetts — LNG — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45968LNG.

No e-mail access.

The future of Massachusetts’ Everett LNG import terminal is in limbo.

the Mystic Generation Station, the power plant that takes the bulk of Everett's gas, will shut down in May 2024 — six months from now.
the LNG terminal owner is looking to find a replacement buyer for the gas.

From earlier this year:

When the clock strikes midnight just over a year from now, it will be lights out for the state’s largest power plant, the Mystic Generating Station in Everett.

It might not be the only major piece of New England’s energy infrastructure to go.

Mystic’s demise means the Everett LNG terminal next door faces a precarious future. Both are owned by the same company, Constellation Energy.

Mystic is also the liquefied natural gas terminal’s biggest customer by far. And both are currently running thanks to an electric ratepayer subsidy that ends on May 31, 2024.

Everett is now the longest-operating LNG import terminal in the country.

Elsewhere, US ports have been exporting liquefied natural gas, not bringing it in.

Everett was the only one to receive LNG shipments during the past winter as global demand — driven in part by Europe weaning itself off Russian gas — drew shippers to more lucrative markets.

Everett’s shipments could soon end, too, if Constellation determines it’s not commercially viable. The 52-year-old terminal has been considered a linchpin for the region’s gas distribution system, particularly on chilly days when the two main pipelines into New England get maxed out.

Not only does Everett keep Mystic’s electric turbines going, it’s also a backup for the Algonquin and Tennessee pipelines and provides much of the LNG that utilities store at various tanks around the region.

The road to New England.

Ticker WE Looks Just Like Ticker ARVL — One Has Declared Bankruptcy — The Other On Life Support — Novrmber 6, 2023

Locator: 45967INV.

The Cloud --- Motley Fool -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45966TECH.

Link here.

I always get a kick out of articles like these. Does it really matter which is best? This is what I want to know

how big is the sector?
who are the major players?
what's thhe time line?

I've not read the article yet. Let's read it together, but first, how would you vote: MSFT, GOOG, or AMZN as an investment over the next ten years?

My ranking:

MSFT
AMZN -- a distant second, see Barron’s. Retail sales slow: AWS rejuvenated.
GOOG -- a very distant third

So, what did Motley Fool say?

waffled: buy all three.
if push comes to shove, then MSFT.

Allocation: that part of your new investment money targeting the cloud --

MSFT: 50%
AMZN: 30%
GOOG: 25%

And be flexible. Be ready to increase your allocation to MSFT and drop GOOG.

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Or You Could Invest in EVs

Nvidia: IBD Stock Of The Day -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45965INV.

IBD stock of the day! Link here.

The Santa Clara, Califonia-based company plans to release its results for the quarter ended October 29 after the market close on November 21.

Analysts polled by FactSet predict Nvidia will earn $3.33 a share on sales of $16.06 billion. In the year-earlier quarter, Nvidia earned 58 cents a share on sales of $5.93 billion.

Demand for graphics processors and data-center hardware for artificial intelligence applications has been fueling huge sales and earnings growth for Nvidia this year.

In a weekend note to clients, investment firm Evercore ISI called Nvidia "arguably the most important stock in the world right now."

Nvidia is a key player among "AI enablers, adopters and adapters," Evercore said.

The firm rates Nvidia as outperform with a price target of 600.

Evercore analysts noted that Nvidia stock "has made a stalwart defense of its months-long support line at $400.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is the IBD Stock Of The Day as the artificial intelligence chipmaker forms a bullish chart pattern ahead of its fiscal third-quarter report.

Folks may want to note this:

Analysts polled by FactSet predict Nvidia will earn $3.33 a share on sales of $16.06 billion. In the year-earlier quarter, Nvidia earned 58 cents a share on sales of $5.93 billion.

Earnings whispers:

consensus: $3.16

FactSet: forecast: $3.33

whisper: $3.47
consensus: $14.50 billion

Share price:

one year ago: $143
today: $458

Back-of-the-envelope:

$3.35 / $0.58 = 5.78
458 / 143 = 3.20
5.78 x 143 = $826

Two New Permits; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed; Ten Permits Renewed; MRO Reporting Some Great Wells -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45964B.

No e-mail access.

Locator: 45963INV.

WTI: $80..81.

Active rigs: 33. Down significantly; getting ready for winter?

Two new permits, #40321 - #40322, inclusive:

Operators: Whiting, Oasis (now, both part of Chord Energy)
Fields: Sanish (Mountrail), Tyrone (Williams)
Comments:

Whiting has a permit for a Sanish Bay E Federal well, SENW 7-152-92;

to be sited 2497 FNL and 1565 FWL

Oasis has a permit for a Iceman Federal well, NESE 5-156-101,

to be sited 2525 FSL and 910 FEL

Hess injection well completed:

39325, Hess, SWDI, Mountrail County

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

38017, 3,437, MRO, Bean USA 31-18H,
38018, 4,244, MRO, Borrud USA 3441-18H,
38019, 2,695, MRO, Chester USA 41-18TFH,
30548, 2,034, MRO, Juliet 14-8TFH,
39456, 1,615, CLR, Edward 5-23H,
39457, 1,285, CLR, Edward 6-23H1,
39567, 1,653, CLR, Edward 3-23H,
39455, 1,047, CLR, Edward 4-23H1,
39454, 1,285, CLR, Edward 2-23HSL1,

Ten permits renewed:

BR (4): three Tilton permits and one Harry Dunner permit, all in Lone Butte, Dunn County;
Murex (3): Vernon, Laura, Iner Skari, permits, all in Sandrocks, McKenzie County
Slawson (2): two Nightmaker permits, Big Bend, Mountrail County
Formentera Operations: a STR1 permit, Woburn, Burke County

AAPL, NVDA Up Nicely Today — BRK Takes Significant Loss — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45963INV.

What's in your portfolio?

I think folks are discovering that dividends really do make a difference.

2023 will be the year that BRK and I will part ways forever.

I won’t sell what I have, but I won’t buy more. BRK is a perfectly wonderful holding, but:

I have more than enough BRK for a diversified portfolio; and,
there are plenty of other great companies from which to choose; and,
BRK pays no dividends.

The usual disclaimers apply.

This is almost criminal -- thinking back to all those Becky Quick commercials.

I get a kick out of Berkshire folks arguing / discussing 4.5% bonds vs 5% MMFs. Oh, give me a break.

Note, the scale of the left hand y-axis: trending toward 80,000%. BRK is pretty much flat-lined.

And AAPL pays a dividend, albeit small.

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The Book Page

Without question, one of my favorite activities is reading. Wow, I get so much enjoyment out of a good book.

I'm still working my way through Howard M. Sachar's A History of the Jews in America, c. 1992.

Chapter Five: "Survival in the Immigrant City." Learning everything about early NYC -- especially the geography -- and how it evolved.

It brings back great memories of the summer I spent in a NYC suburb, working. Westfield, NJ.

Turn of the century, 1900, the Jewish enclave in NYC: lower east side, tenth ward.

It's interesting to look a the "neighborhoods" in/on the south side of (the) Manhattan Island, from south to north, and west to east:

Financial District
Battery Park City (west)
Two Bridges (east)
Tribeca (west --> central --> to Two Bridges and LES; TriBeCa: "Triangle Below Canal Street";
Little Italy (west --> central --> LES
LES (Lower East Side)
SOHO (west) "South of Houston Street";
LES
Hudson Square --> Washington Square Village--> NOHO --> Alphabet City (west to east)
West Village --> Greenwich Village --> East Village
Gramercy (east) -- "Big Thanks"; Gramercy Park, requires a key;
Meatpacking District (west) --> Flatiron District --> Kips Bay
Chelsea (west) --> Nomad --> Rose Hill (east)
Hudson Yards (west) --> Garment District --> Koreatown / Midtown South --> Tudor City

Bridges / Tunnels:

Brooklyn Battery Tunnel (Brooklyn to Financial District)
Brooklyn Bridge (Brooklyn to northern Financial District, to NYC center, Civic Center;
Manhattan Bridge (Brooklyn into Two Bridges, then Chinatown, then Little Italy)
Williamsburg Bridge (north of the Brooklyn Naval yard into LES
Queens Midtown Tunnel (Hunters Point to Tudor City)

Holy Mackerel : It Never Quits — The Next Wave Of LNG Terminaka — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45962LNG.

Note: no e-mail access.

Link here.

Here It Is US! Oil Production — The All-Time Record Set In August, 2023 — Also, A Covid / Paxlovid Update — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45961OIL.
Locator: 45961COVID.

Link here.

Surpasses the record set in November, 2019, just before Covid-19 upended everything.

This record occurred under President Biden’s watch.

Speaking of Covid, I just returned from visiting Portland.

Here’s the Covid data for Oregon: link here. It appears the last reported Covid-19-related death was back in May, 2023, or thereabouts. There is virtually no evidence of Covid-19 in Oregon since the beginning of last (2023) summer. Is there any other state reporting similar data?

With regard to deaths, Washington state is very similar.

In fact, one can find many such cases.

The combination of vaccination, early testing, early intervention, modern medicine, and, no doubt, Paxlovid, has made all the difference in the world.

Of course, some folks will still take President Trump’s advice, of which I have lost the bubble.

Paxlovid update as of late October, 2023. But this is very much in flux. Updated six days ago.

According to HHS, through the end of 2024, people who are uninsured and those who have Medicare or Medicaid coverage will continue to be able to get Paxlovid for free through a patient assistance program set up by Pfizer.

That should mean that you pay nothing at the pharmacy counter.

HHS also says that people who are covered through the Indian Health Service, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), and the Department of Defense will continue to get Paxlovid through the supplies purchased by the government.

Apple Developing Its Own Battery — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45960APPLE.

Link here.

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Chattajack 2023

Paddleboard race, 31 miles plus a two-mile cooling off at the end, down the Tennessee River, starting from downtown Chattanooga.

This was our first trip to Chattanooga. Wow, what a beautiful city. One wonders if it isn't one of the tri-states' best kept secrets: Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama.

771 participants with 200 more on the waiting list.

The night before the race:

Transitory? Depends On One’s Time Frame — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45959INFLATION.

This is from Barron’s. If you can’t trust Barron’s ….

Link here.

All this comes at a time when inflation is decelerating.

Core consumer price inflation has fallen from a peak of 6.5% in March 2022 to 4.1% in September.

Using the most recent data, the three- and six-month annualized rates of core CPI inflation are now 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.

Those figures would have a “two-handle” were it not for the inclusion of owners equivalent rent (OER, a proxy for housing costs), which is presently running at a 7.1% rate.

But as is widely recognized, OER embeds massive lags. Web-scraping measures of actual rents (from Zillow, for instance), suggest that annualized rent inflation has fallen to 1.1%. Put those more realistic rates into the core inflation figures, and the Fed’s target is essentially met. In the labor market, meanwhile, wage inflation is also slowing.

The year-on-year rate of average hourly earnings has fallen to 4.1%. On a three-month moving average basis, wage inflation is down to 3.4%, a rate consistent with the Fed’s inflation target (after adjusting for trend productivity growth).

Other data, including the latest figures on unit labor costs tell a similar story of wage moderation (notwithstanding the recent headlines made by selective union settlements).

To repeat, in case you missed it the first time:

Using the most recent data, the three- and six-month annualized rates of core CPI inflation are now 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.

Those figures would have a “two-handle” were it not for the inclusion of owners equivalent rent (OER, a proxy for housing costs), which is presently running at a 7.1% rate.

Biden Should Look At President Bush's West Bank Plan From 2001 -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45958GAZA.

Link here.

From 2001, the solution to the "West Bank."

Perhaps the success of the 2001 plan for the "West Bank" can be carried over to the Hamas-held Gaza strip.

Katie Ledecky Update -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45957SPORTS.

Link to a Fox News story dated November 2, 2023: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/5-gold-medalist-missy-franklin-katie-ledeckys-greatness-us-swim-teams-outlook-2024-paris.

From the link:

Katie Ledecky is widely considered the greatest swimmer of this generation.

Also from the link:

Rambling On Apple's Earnings -- 4Q23 -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45956AAPL.

Analysts made a huge deal about Apple's decreasing earnings -- the meme: Apple's fourth consecutive quarterly decline. So, what do you notice below?

Note, the first graphic does not include the most recent earnings announcement.

EPS for the most recent quarter was $1.46, beating estimates ($1.39) and the whisper number ($1.45).

One year ago, EPS was $1.26; this same quarter, one year later: $1.46, a 13% increase. This occurred in a year when:

Apple introduced the most sophisticated personable mobile device ever released by any company; the Vision Pro

Apple released the Vision Pro for beta testing but not ready to be released for general sales until mid-2024;
a huge amount of money hasbeen spent on this device and much more will be spent on improving and marketing; it may be years before it’s profitable and it’s unlikely to ever “move the needle”;

Apple developed and released the family of M3 chips, the most sophisticated chips for use by the general public at an affordable price ever released by any tech company;
Apple released the most sophisticated iPhone ever, the iPhone 15, which was only available for only one week of that quarter; and,
that's just for starters.

Link here.

Because "my analysis" is at so much variance with much smarter, more more knowledgeable analysts, everything needs to be fact-checked.

Abbreviated disclaimer (full disclaimer at the "welcome":

This is not an investment site.

Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done for my benefit. I don't expect others to read anything I post nor do I expect others to agree on anything I post. I started the blog to help me remember things since I have such a poor memory.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Apple today:

Amazon Does It Again -- Color Me Impressed -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45955AMAZON.

Note: no e-mail access.

Wow, wow, wow! I am so impressed. Ordering from Amazon using an Amazon credit card always results in 5% cash back (I believe, it's all Amazon-sourced items but I could be wrong).

Amazon, in our area, offers same day delivery, and I'm sure a lot of folks "abuse" that benefit -- ordering small items on impulse and having single items shipped immediately. So, Amazon, has come up with an interesting solution. Amazon offers 6% cash back by delaying the nuisance deliveries and combining them into a single delivery.

There are very few things I need instantly / immediately, so I now routinely get 6% cash back on Amazon orders. The cashback builds up quickly.

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No E-Mail Access

See link above.

Wow, I'm in a good mood. Lack of e-mail access is frustrating but it will eventually be sorted out. In the meantime I'm sorting out some work-arounds.

So, we'll see.

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Apple Update

Link here.

Personal Investing -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45954INV.

Note: link here.

Investing today:

bought: AAPL near the open
bought: NVDA near the open
sold: --

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done for my benefit. I don't expect others to read anything I post nor do I expect others to agree on anything I post. I started the blog to help me remember things since I have such a poor memory.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Personal investing:

I remain fully invested, holding no cash.

I have a predictable revenue stream.

I have a rolling 30-year investment horizon.

I have never and will never invest in bonds. My utility holdings and energy holdings now serve the same purpose as bonds.

I used to put my revenue stream into the market every two weeks; now I invest throughout the month, but zero out all cash by the end of the month.

I have six major buckets and invest at this ratio, with examples:

big tech: 40% -- NVDA, AMD, AVGO, QCOM, SWKS, TSM, SCCO
big cap that pay dividends: 20% -- CAT, DE, UNP, CMI,
energy: 20% -- DVN, CHRD, MPC, CIVI
big pharma/retail pharma: 5% -- WBA, ABBV,
Daimler, RACE: 5%
Apple, MSFT: 10%

The percentages / allotments represent some major changes.

Those percentages will change periodically.

"Everything" right now suggests increased recession fears and/or market pullback after the first of the year. Exhibits A and B:

exhibit A: Berkshire
exhibit B: Oregon pension fund;

Focus On Fracking -- November 6, 2023

Locator: 45953FRACKING.

Focus on fracking, November 5, 2023:

Lede:

oil prices fall to 9 week low;
US refinery utilization at a new nine month low

Narrative begins:

US oil prices ended the past week's trading nearly 6% lower at $80.51 a barrel, after hitting a nine week low midweek, falling below pre-war levels as fears of a wide spread conflict in the Middle East that would disrupt global supplies receded....

Other factors contributing to lower oil prices this week were a stronger US dollar, which makes commodities priced in dollars cheaper because it raises prices for those using other currencies, another increase in US commercial crude supplies amid record-high domestic oil production and falling demand for fuel, a Fed policy meeting wherein future rate hikes were kept on the table and one of the weakest monthly employment reports of the post pandemic era....

Eleven Wells Will Report Today — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45952B.

Note: link here.

Investing today:

buying: AAPL
buying: NVDA
selling: --

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Wind, New Jersey: big fail.
************************Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.48.
Tuesday, November 7, 2023: 102 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 672 for the year
39600, conf, CLR, Brooks 8-9H1,
Monday, November 6, 2023: 101 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 671 for the year 39297, conf, Slawson, Hunter Federal 1 SLH,
Sunday, November 5, 2023: 100 for the month; 100 for the quarter, 670 for the year 39599, conf, CLR, Brooks 7-9H, 39323, conf, Oasis, Osprey 5401 44-23 5BX, 39298, conf, Slawson, Jericho Federal 1SLH, 38772, conf, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 5301 13-14 4B, 38771, conf, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 5301 13-14 3B, 37960, conf, Petroshale, Helen 1TFH, 37959, conf, Petroshale, Helen 2MBH, Saturday, November 4, 2023: 93 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 663 for the year 39324, conf, Oasis, Harrier 5401 44-23 7B, 38773, conf, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 53001 13-14 5B, 38770, conf, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 53001 13-14 2B,
RBN Energy: mild summer saves West Coast gas market ... this time.

Six months ago, the U.S. West Coast natural gas market looked like it was in dire straits. A harsh winter had depleted stocks to the lowest level in over a decade and it seemed like the region would be hard-pressed to refill storage to a reasonable level, given limited and constrained pipeline options to flow incremental gas west.

Instead, a combination of mild weather and operational changes eased demand and pipeline constraints, and Pacific Region storage staged a remarkable comeback this summer.

In today’s RBN blog, we delve into how the region escaped a worst-case scenario heading into the heating season.

For years now, transportation constraints for moving gas west of the Rockies and reduced gas storage capacity on the West Coast have been driving a wedge between the U.S.’s Western and Eastern gas markets.

The West Coast gas market has been at the forefront of the energy transition; nevertheless, natural gas transportation constraints and gas supply shortages in the region, particularly California, have made it the highest-priced gas market in the country.

The Golden State has experienced radical shifts for the better part of the past decade, from the permanent shutdown in 2013 of the 2,250-MW San Onofre nuclear facility — a major power source for the Los Angeles metro area — to an aggressive expansion of renewable energy (first wind, then a lot of solar), and capacity reductions at SoCalGas’s Aliso Canyon gas storage facility stemming from a leak in 2015 (more on that in a bit).

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Monday, November 6, 2023