Notes — September 26, 2023

Locator: 45588TRUMP.

TRUMP’s organization: liable for fraud. “Liable” — is that the same as “guilty”? This should help. Something tells me “we’re” going to learn a lot of new legal terms over the next four years, as well as some other stuff. At the link, “Trump and his company” were found liable.

Update:

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Original Post

PAY: Biden supports big pay raise fur UAW.

TARGET: closing nine stores, citing theft and safety. Three more in Portland; three in San Francisco; two in Seattle; and, one in Harlem, NYC.

HOLD ON: Cash ‘n Carry says higher rates possible and these rate hikes could be “meaningful.” I think “meaningful” would be a word seldom used by JPow. I’m waiting for Steve Liesman to comment.

IT NEVER QUITS: government shutdown? Student loan payments back on hold — Biden. 

iPAD: 10th generation at record low price at B&H Photo. Wi-fi only, 64 GB, 10.9-inch — $379, down from $449. First iPad released in 2010, with only 16 GB, was $499 with small screen and less capable CPU. Inflation? What inflation? Wow, this gets tedious.

BOB’S BURGERS: 14th season premiers Sunday, October 1, 2023, 8:00 p.m. CT. Opposite Chiefs / Jets and Seahawks / Giants.

New Search Engine; Two New Permits; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed — September 26, 2023

Locator: 45587B.

Hunk: if you open your dictionary to "hunk" you will see a photo of Travis Kelce, tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs. In their weekend game, Taylor Swift was in the owner's box and rumors began to circulate. LOL. Today, it's being reported that Travis Kelce jersey sales have spiked nearly 400%. 

Swifties: if you open your dictionary to "swifties" you will see a photo of Travis Kelce, tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs. LOL.

NFL: Stephen A’s top five … Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, 49ers, and #1, Miami.

Search engines: not Google. A different one. More later, but at the moment this particular search engine seems much, much better than Google. Don’t ask, won’t tell. But, it does not have “duck” in its name.

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The Book Club

Lexington: I don't read as much as I should nor as much as real "readers" read but I read a fair amount. I have a pretty good idea of what books I will enjoy before even starting to read them. I never would have guessed that the book our granddaughter Olivia gave me for a birthday present would be such a great book. It really is very good, the biography of the greatest (?) racehorse ever, Lexington. And we move on.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 33. 

WTI: $90.39.

Two new oil and ggas permits, #40226 - #40227, inclusive:

• Operators: BR (2)
• Field: Bully, Elidah (both in McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• BR has new permits for two Omlid wells, SESE 7-151-97, 
• both to be sited 750 FSL with one 305 FEL and the other 260 FEL

Seven DUCs reported as completed:

• 38020, 2,902, MRO, Ellis USA 34 -7TFH,
• 38021, 2,881, MRO, Ott USA 44-7TFH,
• 38022, 4,925, MRO, Sallie USA 44-7H,
• 39197, 1,240, CLR, Boe State 6-16H,
• 39198, 1,295, CLR, Boe State 7-16H,
• 39251, 2,442, MRO, Jim Creek USA 34-7H,
• 39313, 2,902, Stephens Willison (DBA SEG Williston), Gernand 13X-32C, Ross,
  

Wells of interest: 

• 18620, 400, CLR, Boe State 31X-16, Beaver Lodge, t7/10; cum 140K 1/23; off line; has never been a particularly good well; 

• 39313, 2,902, Stephens Willison (DBA SEG Williston), Gernand 13X-32C, Ross,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	29	18524	17999	118147	9308	0	9308

• 39314, drl/A, Stephens Willison (DBA SEG Williston), Gernand 13X-32D, Ross,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	29	17447	16770	122674	9258	0	9258

• 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 519K 2/23; off line; huge jump in production, 6/15:

BAKKEN	2-2016	29	6336	6336	2397	5669	4523	294
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	7218	7218	2752	6440	4852	630
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	7531	7520	2947	6678	5529	157
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	7283	7332	3044	6610	5505	146
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	7969	7970	3416	6665	5244	382
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	9563	9487	4018	7143	4052	1893
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	14401	14429	6800	12849	10258	864
BAKKEN	7-2015	23	10487	10308	6492	8489	4916	2331
BAKKEN	6-2015	24	12277	12588	6990	8857	4448	2981
BAKKEN	5-2015	13	1628	1401	1244	1415	303	906
BAKKEN	4-2015	9	2595	2601	1834	2010	945	738
BAKKEN	3-2015	15	2086	2116	1419	1567	356	899
BAKKEN	2-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	1	3	243	0	2	0	1
BAKKEN	12-2014	15	723	946	138	517	132	222
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	1446	1194	321	994	81	578
BAKKEN	10-2014	29	1433	1392	297	1003	107	573

Hurricane Phillipe Will Be Another Dud — September 26, 2023

Locator: 45586NHC.

Link here.

But NHC says another storm likely to develop off coast of Africa in next week or so.

Covid-19 Graphics With Comment -- September 26, 2023

Locator: 45585COVID.

Starting today, Monday, people can order four tests per US household through Covidtests.gov. People without an internet connection can call 1-800-232-0233 (TTY 1-888-720-7489) to request tests.

COVID Update

Link here.

This is the last week -- maybe one more week after this -- before "seasonal flu" begins to take off. The calm before the storm. The weekly CDC graphs are updated weekly, near the end of the week.

This is where we stand.

With snarky comments.

Graphic #1. In the next week or two, "seasonal flu" should surge. If it doesn't, we need to ask, "why?"

Graphic #2. What happened to "seasonal flu" during the year of the plague, 2020 - 2021? Why has "seasonal flu" plateaued for the past two weeks? Calm before the storm or something else going on? Before we get too excited, the y-axis only goes to eight percent and this is simply the percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness -- you know, fever, cough, general malaise, I-don't-want-to-go-to work-today symptoms. These are not deaths -- for Covid, deaths as a percentage of overall deaths was trending toward 30% even after the peak moderated.

Graphic #3. Whenever I look at this graph, I get the feeling that the ivermectin crowd can't read graphs. 

Forget about the first year of Covid-19 reporting -- "every" death was somehow related to Covid.

But after that, the data was much, much better.

These are deaths due to PIC -- pneumonia, influenza, covid.

Look at the minuscule yellow blog -- that's "season flu." Not only is this truly minuscule, "seasonal flu" disappeared completely in the year of the plague -- no yellow blob in 2021.

But this is why I question whether Tucker can read a graph: look at the percentage of deaths in the US due to seasonal flu -- during seasonal flu season -- maybe 1% -- the rest of the year -- 0%.

Now, the percent of deaths due to Covid in the US -- peaks trended toward 35% -- quick, name anything, anything at all in the US that runs to 30% of deaths -- one can start here -- and although there is some seasonality, it was pretty much throughout the year -- from week 10, 2020, to week 10, 2021. 

For 2022, the percent of overall deaths due to Covid was pretty much 4% throughout the year -- 4x "seasonal flu" and "seasonal flu" is for only a few weeks -- week 48, 2022, through week 2, 2023 -- four weeks and again, "seasonal flu" peaked at 1%.

Most amazing, even without the use of ivermectin, the percent of deaths due to Covid has plummeted. As noted, the percent of deaths due to Covid was running 20 to 35 percent -- that is absolutely earthshaking for those actually paying attention and who can read graphs. I've long forgotten the stats for Spanish flu but my hunch Covid-19 in the early days was looking to lap Spanish flu. And it probably did in several European countries.

Most remarkable is the fact that the percentage of deaths due to Covid dropped to 4% in 2022, and now, in 2023, the percentage is no worse than "seasonal flu" at one percent except for the fact that seasonal flu mortality of 1% lasts four weeks while Covid's death rate of 1% is pretty much without any let up.

So the answer to the "question" that I eagerly await this year is whether the "yellow blog" will be higher than the grey curve in weeks two through four in 2024?

Fossil Fuels And Ford Battery Plant -- A Meandering Post -- September 26, 2023

Locator: 45584B.  

Fossil fuel: quick look at headlines overnight suggests fossil fuels are back; renewable energy, global warming issues facing headwinds. Apparently some folks don’t like the idea of $7-gasoline. Overnight headlines;

• OPEC+ cuts offset by booming US oil production
• oil demand destruction in India won't happen at $100-oil
• court upholds order to expand oil and gas lease sale in Gulf of Mexico, the expansion Biden trieed to stop -- illegally -- he learned well from Obama, who actually went to law school
• Groningen finally closing for good -- well, except for emergencies for one more winter; link here.
  
• Goldman Sachs ignores activists' calls to "abandon" oil and gas investments
• Trans Mountain oil pipeline back on track; regulator, in what seems record time, approve the requested route change 
• short sells scramble as energy stocks surge (whoo-hoo)
• energy fund manager predicts major upside for oil equities
• OPEC+ cuts offset by booming US oil production: US production to hit 13 million bopd by the end of this month, matching the record output from November, 2019. Link here.
  

Ford halts construction of $3.5 billion EV battery plant in Michigan:

• why Barron's says this is a big, big deal; link here; link here, also;
• "Michigan" can't be happy
• how many union jobs lost or "put on hold"?
• Ford re-thinking this EV thing?
• UAW - Ford, GM, Stellantis -- circular firing squad
• UAW planned / plans for months (plural)-long strike and will gradually expand

Look at that Barron's article: every big name in EV battery will be affected -- link here, again:

• Ford licensed the technology from Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (CATL -- we've discussed CATL before);
• the plant is slated to use lithium-iron-phosphate battery technology (CATL -- world's largest battery maker)
• also called LFP batteries -- iron is "Fe"
• LFP batteries less expensive than other chemistries -- and, as they say, you get what you pay for
• now folks are suggesting that maybe Ford doesn't need as many batteries as it thought
• EV sales have hit a wall
• the US EV penetration is about 7% (which I think is baloney)
• EV sales are up almost 50% in one year BUT Ford sales are up only 6% through August -- and isn't Ford second only to Tesla in the US
• Barron's with the understatement of the day: "Ford ha run into 'some' battery and manufacturing problems -- previously reported
• maybe investors will like this pause: it will save or slow billions in capital spending
  
• Ford investors actually aren't too upset -- ticker F is up 2% over the past five days
• meanwhile Tesla keeps moving along
• having said all that -- one of the poorest Barron's articles I've read in a long time; meanders all over the territory; the writer certainly didn't seem like he / she knew where the story was leading
• I think this is the big question: delaying the battery factory -- a minor speed bump or a decades-long detour and eventual re-route? I don't think anyone knows and the Ford board is probably greatly divided on this
  

Meandering -- just like this blog. LOL.

Oh, one more thing:

Happy Days Are Here Again — September 26, 2023

Locator: 45583ECON.  

Economy: it looks like the economy remains in great shape if one is listening to Jamie Dimon. JPM  raised its dividend rate some weeks ago. Hardly suggests a dire decade. Link here. The problem is not "higher-for-longer," the problem is perspective.

Fossil fuel: quick look at headlines overnight suggests fossil fuels are back; renewable energy, global warming issues facing headwinds. Apparently some folks don’t like the idea of $7-gasoline.

Higher-for-longer: young journalists don’t have sense of history; many apparently can’t read a graph.

UAW: stopping a new battery facility was the big story of the week. 

History through oil-tinged glasses:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $89.06.

Wednesday, September 27, 2023: 116 for the month; 318 for the quarter, 563 for the year
39564, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 3H,
38987, conf, Hess, RS-Harstad-LE-155-91-0433H-1,

Tuesday, September 26, 2023: 114 for the month; 316 for the quarter, 561 for the year
39595, conf, Neptune Operating, Sigma Lee 14-23 3H,
39569, conf, CLR, Eclipse SWD,
39563, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 2H,

RBN Energy: how much will the Midland-to-Houston WTI price spread widen as oil flows shift? Archived.

Over the past three-plus years, Corpus Christi has dominated the U.S. crude oil export market, largely because of the availability of straight-shot pipeline access from the Permian to two Corpus-area terminals at Ingleside — Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC) and South Texas Gateway (STG) — that can partially load the huge 2-MMbbl VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers).

But capacity on the pipes to Corpus is now nearly maxed out and, with Permian production rising and exports strong, an increasing share of West Texas crude output is instead being sent to Houston on pipelines with capacity to spare.

The catch for Permian shippers with capacity on Permian-to-Houston pipes is that the Midland-to-MEH (Magellan East Houston) price differential for WTI has been depressingly low —$0.22/bbl on average this year, compared to almost $20/bbl for a few months in 2018 and averaging $5.50/bbl as recently as 2019. However, the Midland-to-MEH WTI price spread looks to be on the verge of a rebound of sorts, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.

A few months ago we said that exports are, well, calling the shots in the U.S. crude oil market.

Lower 48 oil production now averages about 12.5 MMb/d — Alaska adds another 400 Mb/d — the highest level in three and a half years and only a tiny 1.5% away from where production peaked pre-COVID.

And exports out of the Gulf Coast? They’ve averaged nearly 3.7 MMb/d so far this year, a gain of about 500 Mb/d over 2022 (which was no slouch).

With WTI prices now flirting with $90/bbl and OPEC+ keeping a lid on its output, continued growth in both U.S. production — the vast majority of it in the Permian — and export volumes are definitely in the cards.

It also seems likely that Corpus’s share of export volumes may have topped out, at least for now.

Don’t get us wrong.

Corpus is still the big dog. It handled 60% of Gulf Coast export volumes last year and has accounted for about the same proportion of exports so far in 2023. Shippers love the benefits that come from piping neat barrels of Midland WTI to EIEC and STG at Ingleside, where the crude can be directly loaded onto VLCCs that can be filled to capacity with only a one-tanker reverse lighter just offshore. It’s hard to beat that situation or those economics in Houston or even the Inner Harbor Corpus terminals, and Ingleside’s magnet-like pull on Permian barrels has left many of the pipes from West Texas to Houston running well below capacity.

Is anyone paying attention?