Locator: 44989TESLA.
A lot of us got "him" wrong. I certainly did. I was worse than many. But June 3, 2023 -- that was it. The future that anyone could see.
All on his own. No government subsidies, mandates.
TSLA:
The past six months:
Today:
Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Apple -- The U1 Chip -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44988AAPL.
On a down day for the Dow / NASDAQ / S&P 500, I never would have expected AAPL to hold its own, actually closing slightly higher at the end of the trading day. On such days, I expect and would expect AAPL to have a bad day.
I cannot explain what helped AAPL today -- obviously some analyst raised guidance, and/or the one-year target.
Possibly, some early numbers / rumors are starting to come in suggesting the new iPhone and the new MacBook Air 15 are going to be huge sellers.
Their two most important products -- the iPhone and the MacBook Air came out early enough this summer for college-bound / those returning to college this autumn. For the most part, the laptops did not increase in price -- certainly not when considering the new chips -- and iPhones are so heavily subsidized by carriers, the price of a new iPhone hardly matters. Don't take that out of context.
Having said that, I would hope that analysts are also actually looking at Apple's new products. These new products really are incredible.
I've had several blogs on these new products. Today, there was another article regarding the iPhone.
From the linked article:
Apple's new iPhone 15 will feature at least one new upgrade aimed at the upcoming Vision Pro headset.
The new iPhone is due out in September, and Apple has said little about it. But as the release nears, more reports are leaking out from the company’s supply chain that indicate its features.
One of those may be a new “ultra wide band” or UWB chip that is looking ahead to Apple’s Vision Pro, according to a new report from reputable analyst Ming-chi Kuo.The chip will allow the phone and the headset to be able to work together, he suggested, as part of a “more competitive ecosystem”.
“The ecosystem is one of the key success factors for Vision Pro, including the integration with other Apple hardware products, and related main hardware specifications are Wi-Fi and UWB,” he wrote on a post on Twitter.
“iPhone 15 will likely see an specification upgrade of UWB, with the production process moving from 16nm to more advanced 7nm, allowing for improved performance or reduced power consumption for nearby Interactions.”The U1 chip is used give the iPhone and other devices better spatial awareness, so that they can find other objects more precisely.
Two things: we're going to be hearing much more about "spatial computing" from Apple for the foreseeable future, and yet another Apple chip, the U1.
Go to this wiki site to see the long list of chips being designed / developed by Apple's chip design division: Apple silicon. Yes, "silicon" with a lower case "s."
The list of chips and processors is incredibly long, and are divided into series:
A, H, M, R, S, T, U, and W.
For example, the "Apple U1":
The Apple "U" series is a family of systems in a package (SiP) implementing ultra-wideband (UWB) radio.
The Apple U1 is used in the iPhone 11 series and later (excluding the second and third generation iPhone SE), Apple Watch Series 6 and newer, HomePod (2nd generation), HomePod Mini, AirTag trackers and the charging case for AirPods Pro (2nd generation).
Disclaimer: I self-identify as an Apple fanboy, Apple fanboy #3 to be exact. I am inappropriately exuberant about Apple. I care less about Apple as an investment opportunity than about the company as a company: its technology, designing, manufacturing, logistics, international relationships, thinking differently, and, especially, marketing. And so much more.
Zavanna With Four New Permits in Stony Creek, Williams County -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44987B.
Zavanna, daily activity report this date.
Four new permits, #39979 - #39982, inclusive:
- Operator: Zavanna
- Field: Stony Creek (Williams)
- Comments:
- Zavanna has permits for four Collie wells, SWSE 13-155-100,
- to be sited 859 FSL and between 1675 FEL and 1765 FEL
Sited in section 13, 1280-acre spacing unit to the south, sections 24/25-155-100:
Two existing wells, but each in a single and different section:
- 22553, 527, Zavanna, Sabertooth 1-24H, t8/12; cum 364K 4/23; section 24-155-100, one section (640 acre) spacing;
- 18014, 527, Zavanna, Bobcat 1-25H, t1/10; cum 221K 4/23; section 26-155-100, one section spacing; section 26-155-100, one section (640 acre) spacing,
Zavanna With Four New Permits; WTI Holds Above $70 -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44986B.
WTI: $70.50.
Active rigs: 39.
Four new permits, #39979 - #39982, inclusive:
- Operator: Zavanna
- Field: Stony Creek (Williams)
- Comments:
- Zavanna has permits for four Collie wells, SWSE 13-155-100,
- to be sited 859 FSL and between 1675 FEL and 1765 FEL
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 38828, 1,503, MRO, Breuer 44-32TFH, Dunn County;
- 39083, 1,575, MRO, Woodrow 2-43H, Dunn County;
- 39132, 162, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Cllaire rose 3-31-30-159N-99W-MBH,
ERCOT Texas Update -- Late Afternoon -- Tuesday, A Work Day -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44985ENERGY.
Locator: 44985COSTRENEWABLES.
Locator: 44985ELECTRICITY.
Update
Later, 5:42 p.m. CT: just show consumers the cost of electricity and they will cut back.
Original Post
Inflation Watch -- June 20, 2023
Breaking: Rivian partners with Tesla.
Locator: 44984INF.
A dozen eggs drop in price from $4.59 to $1.19 at Target after just a few months of high prices.
1.19 / 12 = 10 cents an egg!
In addition, Target now has an "overage" of iceberg lettuce, for $1.99 / head. There was no weight on the head of lettuce. I will weigh it later if I remember. Some months ago, iceberg lettuce was not even available, regardless of price.
The Economy Is On Fire -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44983ECON.
CNBC: for the first time in a long time, I spent much of the noon hour watching CNBC.
- the big story: the huge housing numbers for May that were released today.
- those numbers are re-posted below, below "the fold."
The Fed:
- aggressive this past year ( 2022 - 2023) and still unable to slow the economy.
- inflation has come down significantly; from 9% to 4%?
- "everybody" agrees: the Fed will have to keep raising.
- the big question: is JPow unhappy that so many folks are working or that he missed the market rally?
Diesel:
- this is the big story; only the housing story is bigger.
- this economy is on fire.
- US refiners are working at capacity, can't keep up with diesel demand.
- every consumer diesel has become more efficient in their use of diesel, and still the refiners can't keep up.
- fewer and fewer utilities to produce electricity.
- best example of efficiency, pointed out by reader, the rail industry:
- fifty years ago, cargo trains were 50 cars
- today, unit trains are 110 cars
After two lost decades, the Biden economy is on fire.
***************************
The Housing Numbers Today
Reposting:
Locator: 44977ECON.
Housing starts, month/month:
- May, 2023:
- forecast: a decrease, estimate -0.1%
- actual: an astounding +21.7%
- prior:
- revised down
- original was: +2.2% month over month
- revised: -2.9%
Housing permits, month/month:
- May, 2023
- forecast: 0.6%
- actual: a remarkable 5.2%
- prior:
- no change
- original was: -1.4%
- revised: -1.5%
Someone needs to "draw" simpler graphs. LOL.
Clearing Out The In-Box -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44982MISC.
Fed rate:
North Dakota:
CO2 sequestration:
Apple:
Bud:
Music:
Updates
December 9, 2023: BNSF bridge, Bismarck, ND; replace; WSJ article.
Politicians pretend to worry about crumbling roads and bridges while ignoring the red tape that helps keep them shabby. Even in the wild and free Great Plains, litigation is propping up a decrepit bridge that a railroad is paying millions to replace.
North Dakota’s Supreme Court heard a case this month that pits BNSF Railway against an activist group trying to stall it. The dispute is over a 140-year-old bridge connecting Bismarck to Mandan across the Missouri River.
The company received final state and federal approval this year to replace it, but appeasing the activists has delayed the process for five years and counting.
Friends of the Rail Bridge lay out their legal claim in a 58-page memo with a dubious theory of property rights. It concedes that a 19th-century federal law gave BNSF’s predecessor “right of way through the public lands . . . for the construction of a railroad,” but it says that ownership is void because the company lacks an original deed.
That claim has already been dismissed by the state of North Dakota, which the activists claim is the bridge’s rightful owner. Attorney General Drew Wrigley stayed clear of the fight for years, but he told a historic board last month that final say over the replacement proposal rests with “a private entity that owns the bridge.” A filing this month from the AG’s office warns that the court “should not reward” the activists’ legal maneuver.
Original Post
As predicted:
- FOMO --> Rally --> Surge --> Short Squeeze --> Gamma Squeeze --> Profit-taking.
National politics:
Fed rate:
- money isn't all that tight. Chart of the day.
Bear markets.
Electricity:
Pipeline, national interest:
Wind:
- Japan pushes back; home of the Kyoto Treaty.
North Dakota:
- BNSF to replace Mandan-Bismarck bridge across the Missouri; million-dollar project.
- already being protested by FORB. It gets tedious.
US oil patch:
- deflation in the American oil patch; chart of the day.
The Bakken:
- Riverbend acquires Williston Assets to mark "rebuilding" campaign
- Houston company; acquired non-operated Williston Basin assets nearly a year after exiting the basin in a $1.8 billion deal.
The Permian:
- Civitas Resources nears $5 billion deal to expand into the Permian.
CO2 sequestration:
Apple:
Disney:
- CFO steps aside; internal discord.
- certainly sounds like Bob Iger did not go far enough in his "reorg."
- DIS ticker down 1.4% today.
- over five years, DIS is down 15%.
- Iran is shipping the most crude in five years.
- Saudi crude oil hits five-month low in April.
- Saudi's import of oil products to meet domestic demand surged.
- Saudi suckered again by Russia -- Simon Watkins.
- Russia screws Saudi Arabia; undercuts OPEC+ script.
Global demand:
- set at 101.01 million bopd for this year (2023) -- all-time record;
- in three days, WTI officially added to Brent dated (June 23, 2023)
Coal:
- quarterly reminder: Germany is the world's largest produceer of lignite, "the dirty coal."
- Vietnam: the iron law of electricity; developing countries are burning coal, lots of coal.
Bud:
Music:
- one last effort, "The Story of Abbey Road."
Blog:
Tesla Has Won! The Race To Market The "Holy Grail": A Universal EV Supercharger -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44981ECON.
Locator: 44972INV.
Locator: 44837MUSK.
Locator: 44837EVS.
Locator: 44837INV.
Updates
Later, 1:31 p.m. CT: Rivian partners with Tesla.
Original Post
On a day the market is down, TSLA continues it's "win" streak.
News today: Hyundai is next in line to join GM and F in declaring TSLA the winner of the global universal supercharger race.
I'll add this to this post. And, of course, to this post, one of my best ever posts, along with my original posts on Netflix and Devon, and to some extent, more recently Apple and Nvidia. Whoo-hoo.
Booming Economy -- US Refiners Can't Keep Up With Diesel Demand -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44981ECON.
A reader noted that in his area of the country -- farm county -- diesel was now slightly less expensive than gasoline.
Same in north Texas, thought it fluctuates a bit, some days, diesel is less expensive and some days gasoline is less expensive.
[National data provided by the EIA still has diesel more expensive than gasoline. When one sees diesel prices lower than gasoline prices as a variant from the national EIA data, it's more about local conditions than anything else. It's an interesting data point -- a data point I often post -- but as a snapshot doesn't mean much.
The bigger story, of course, is that natural gas, with a $2-handle is at all time lows and the cost of electricity this afternoon in Texas is forecast to soar from $20 / MW to $2,500 / MW and no one talks about that (except me). Texas electricity should be trending toward $0.00.
But I digress.
Back to diesel.
My quick-not-ready-for-prime-time reply:
It's all about the "right" kind of oil.Refiners are working at max capacity. Despite max capacity (94% this past week), the US refiners can't keep up -- even at max capacity and excess light oil, we're paying over $3/gallon for gasoline.The US produces "excess" light oil (gasoline) and ships it overseas.The US produces not enough heavy oil (diesel) and has to import it from overseas.Last discussed on the blog just a few days ago -- RBN Energy:RBN Energy: the race to build Texas's first offshore crude oil export terminal.
As we see it, 2023 will be another strong year for U.S. crude oil exports, driven in large part by rising domestic production. Upstream companies in the Permian and other U.S. shale plays are gradually ramping up their output and, with domestic refineries largely maxed out on how much light-sweet oil they can use, it’s safe to say that the vast majority of the incremental oil produced will end up at export terminals along the Gulf Coast.
Each of these proposed facilities would offer shippers what they want most: easy access to large volumes of oil and the ability to fully load 2-MMbbl VLCCs without any reverse lightering, which brings cheaper and cleaner export options to the market.And if production continues growing (as we expect), there’s likely to be room — and a strong economic rationale — for one or more new offshore terminals to be built in the deep waters of the Gulf itself.
In addition, corroborated by remarks from most recent edition of "Focus On Fracking." Link here. It's a booming economy.
This Is Why The US Has A Gun Problem -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44980POL.
WASHINGTON (AP) —
President Joe Biden’s son Hunter has been charged with failing to pay federal income tax and illegally possessing a weapon and has reached an agreement with the Justice Department.
As part of the agreement, made public Tuesday, June 20, 2023, Hunter Biden will plead guilty to misdemeanor tax offenses and is expected to reach an agreement with prosecutors on the felony charge of illegally possessing a firearm as a drug user.
It is somewhat unusual to resolve a federal criminal case at the same time the charges are filed in court, though it is not totally unheard of.
The deal ends a long-running Justice Department investigation into Biden’s second son, who has acknowledged struggling with addiction following the 2015 death of his brother Beau Biden. It also averts a trial that would have generated days or weeks or distracting headlines for a White House that has strenuously sought to keep its distance from the Justice Department.
Few Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- Six Months Ago Drilling Stopped Due To Ferocious Winter -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44979B.
Market: "mixed" as they say, after a three-day weekend
- Dow: down 175 points at the open; down one-half of a percent
- NASDAQ: up 2 points at the open
**********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.45, down almost 2%.
Tuesday, June 20, 2023: 36 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 399 for the year
None.
Monday, June 19, 2023: 36 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 399 for the year
None.
Sunday, June 18, 2023: 36 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 399 for the year
39398, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 4H,
39303, conf, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 8-6H,
38633, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-2H,
Consider this fact: Three of every five barrels of crude oil produced in the U.S. are exported, either as crude oil or in the form of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel or other petroleum products. Sure, large volumes of crude and products are still being imported, but the net import number is dwindling toward zero — and if you count NGLs (ethane, propane, etc.) in the liquid fuels balance, the U.S. has been a net exporter since 2020. Yes, folks, exports are now calling the shots, and the role of exports is only going to become larger over the next few years.
Wind, Solar "Saved" Texas Yesterday But At What Cost! Today Will Be Closer And Way More Expensive -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44978ERCOT.
Yesterday: the grid held. Folks already forget that yesterday was a holiday. Today, no holiday and it's going to be worse.
Today:
- it's going to be much closer and it's going to be four times as expensive --
- yesterday, at peak: rates of $500 / MW forecast
- today, at peak, rates of $2,500 / MW forecast
- Texans voting for "free energy" -- wind and solar -- truly duped
Pet peeve, and almost criminal, certainly poor, if not unethical journalism:
- local weather forecasters crowing that the grid held, but failing to show "us" the cost for that "miracle," and one completely dependent on wind and sun.
Soared -- Housing Starts -- Housing Permits -- June 20, 2023
Locator: 44977ECON.
Housing starts, month/month:
- May, 2023:
- forecast: a decrease, estimate -0.1%
- actual: an astounding +21.7%
- prior:
- revised down
- original was: +2.2% month over month
- revised: -2.9%
Housing permits, month/month:
- May, 2023
- forecast: 0.6%
- actual: a remarkable 5.2%
- prior:
- no change
- original was: -1.4%
- revised: -1.5%
Someone needs to "draw" simpler graphs. LOL.
Add this chart to the other charts.