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Tuesday, June 20, 2023

The Economy Is On Fire -- June 20, 2023

Locator: 44983ECON.  

CNBC: for the first time in a long time, I spent much of the noon hour watching CNBC

  • the big story: the huge housing numbers for May that were released today.
  • those numbers are re-posted below, below "the fold."

The Fed:

  • aggressive this past year ( 2022 - 2023) and still unable to slow the economy.
  • inflation has come down significantly; from 9% to 4%?
  • "everybody" agrees: the Fed will have to keep raising. 
  • the big question: is JPow unhappy that so many folks are working or that he missed the market rally?

Diesel:

  • this is the big story; only the housing story is bigger.
  • this economy is on fire.
  • US refiners are working at capacity, can't keep up with diesel demand.
  • every consumer diesel has become more efficient in their use of diesel, and still the refiners can't keep up.
  • fewer and fewer utilities to produce electricity.
  • best example of efficiency, pointed out by reader, the rail industry:
    • fifty years ago, cargo trains were 50 cars
    • today, unit trains are 110 cars

After two lost decades, the Biden economy is on fire.

***************************
The Housing Numbers Today

Reposting:

Locator: 44977ECON.   

Housing starts, month/month:

  • May, 2023:
  • forecast: a decrease, estimate -0.1%
  • actual: an astounding +21.7%
  • prior:
  • revised down
  • original was: +2.2% month over month
  • revised: -2.9%

Housing permits, month/month:

  • May, 2023
  • forecast: 0.6%
  • actual: a remarkable 5.2%
  • prior: 
  • no change
  • original was: -1.4%
  • revised: -1.5%

Link here.

Someone needs to "draw" simpler graphs. LOL.

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