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Monday, April 10, 2023

China's Population Crisis -- CNBC -- April 10, 2023

Locator: 44358A. 

This story is getting pretty old. It must have been a slow news day over at CNBC. Peter Zeihan has been talking about this for quite some time; I first saw it in his 2022 book. 

See this post

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Politics

For the record, for the archives, the 2024 presidential contest will come down to Biden vs Romney.

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Eggs

Now that eggs are back to their "original" price and are readily available, I had my first egg sandwich in months.

A little bit of cheddar cheese and a very little bit of spicy beef sticks (cut up into small pieces) and absolutely perfect, costing maybe 50 cents a sandwich (?). 

But I'm enjoying them while I can. Apparently, avian flu could return with a vengeance.

Kraken With Six New Permits; NDIC Reports Fourteen Permits Renewed -- April 10, 2023

Locator: 44357B. 

Wow, wow, wow -- absolutely nothing about which to blog. Boring, boring, boring. I am so ready for summer and swimming.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $79.84.

Natural gas: $2.179.

Six new permits, #39808 -  #39813, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Big Stone (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for three Apollo wells and three Turbodiesel wells, NENW 19-159-98, 
      • to be sited 359 FNL and 524 FNL and all six 1319 FWL;

Fourteen permits renewed:

  • CLR (6):
  • Enerplus (4):
  • Hess (4):

Three permits canceled:

  • Oasis: three Slagle permits in Camp oil field, McKenzie County;

A Reader's Concern About Jon Rahm's Federal Taxes-- April 10, 2023

Locator: 44357C. 

The Masters: a reader suggested that the winner of the Master's will pay 39% of his winnings in federal taxes.

My thoughts, not ready for prime time:

Federal taxes on Jon Rahm winnings won't even come close to 39% once all his deductions are taken into account.

And if that 39% is too much, then the Masters / PGA should increase his winnings by 39% to offset the tax.

In fact the total purse for the Masters went from $15 million to $18 million in the last year or so.

But if that still isn't enough for Jon Rahm, he could have joined LIV and would have received $100 million for a signing bonus [= 2,500 folks earning $40,000.]

Jon Rahm moved from Spain to Arizona. Arizona's state income tax maxes out at 2.98%. If he were smart, Rahm would move to Texas where there is no state income tax.  

In addition, I assume since the tournament was held in Georgia, he will also pay Georgia state income tax which has a max rate of 5.75%. 

I believe all those state taxes (I could be wrong) are deductions from federal tax. 

Also, unlike those who make $20,000 and have max social security "taxes" taken out of their pay, no social security tax is taken out of earning exceeding $160,200. If Jon Rahm is unhappy with paying taxes, he doesn’t have to enter golf tournaments.

And finally, Jon Rahm can easily make up any taxes paid by making the "right" life decisions, "right" financial decisions, and making the "right" investment decisions.

And unlike Jamie Dimon who could earn upwards of $35 million in compensation this year, Jon Rahm has a limited number of tournaments to play, and he actually has to make the cut in all of those tournaments, and generally place in the top 20, to make any money.

My suggestion: athletes should be paid more and government should increase their take. In fact, there should be an "athletes and entertainers' tax."

From CNBC: and yes, this has more to do with "wealth" than "income." 

Ovintiv's Clear Creek State And Federal Wells In Westberg

Locator: 44356B.

Updates

May 30, 2023: halo effect and production update. And updated map.

Original Post

The wells:

  • 22779, IA/939, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-3H, Westberg, t9/12; cum 221K 1/20;
    22778, 1,433, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-2H, Westberg, t9/12; cum 245K 1/23;
  • 38875, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-8H, Westberg, 
  • 38754, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-14H, Westberg, 
  • 38753, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-13H, Westberg, 
  • 38752, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-7H, Westberg,
  • 38690, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-5H, Westberg, 
  • 38691, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-12H, Westberg, 
  • 38692, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-6H, Westberg,
  • 39055, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-10HLW, Westberg, 
  • 38759, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-4H, Westberg, 
  • 38760, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-11H, Westberg, 
  • 38761, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-20H, Westberg,
  • 18267, 1,598, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Statee 1-36H, Westberg, t12/09; cum 103K 1/23;

Maps: to follow.


Update On The Enerplus Thread Well In Mandaree Oil Field -- April 10, 2023

Locator: 44355B.

This page won't be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere.

The well:

  • 29974, 380, Enerplus, Thread 149-93-04D-03H, Mandaree, t2/16; cum 480K 9/20; strong production profile continues into 2019, producing 7,500 bbls/month as recently as 12/18; cum 503K 5/21; cum 542K 2/23; F;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202328422459217415167
BAKKEN1-2023304794553010890692
BAKKEN12-202228339344427860504
BAKKEN11-2022305106716221205399393
BAKKEN10-2022214474991437981271371
BAKKEN9-20228337111414795200230
BAKKEN8-20222721482185128450523318325
BAKKEN7-20223123232353161049483280205
BAKKEN6-20223024352370151355853916110
BAKKEN5-20223123952391135252783623109
BAKKEN4-2022282149220415403924230097
BAKKEN3-20223123872350145749243339107
BAKKEN2-20222722862306104742962879101
BAKKEN1-20223125422530128453703164734
BAKKEN12-202131290031511387674040021001
BAKKEN11-20213023862161132844442940132
BAKKEN10-20213124452404135651033216442
BAKKEN9-20212923232356136053013205761
BAKKEN8-20213123832459120450002933707
BAKKEN7-20213124022339153750522856810
BAKKEN6-20213022852256151547962729784
BAKKEN5-20213125772634172149363052473
BAKKEN4-2021302664262916614188263389
BAKKEN3-202131278427171388584729621412
BAKKEN2-202126190419031212399519321006
BAKKEN1-20213022642229125847552828701
BAKKEN12-20203134993649176773475256523
BAKKEN11-20202935923507191875435125951
BAKKEN10-20203036263684255774365853109
BAKKEN9-202030445544212941100148203134
BAKKEN8-20202843034383321580286209129
BAKKEN7-20203135423450232969154945106
BAKKEN6-20202935853761229166164900108
BAKKEN5-20203038703995190569985262116
BAKKEN4-20202546474605111673185451139
BAKKEN3-20202839333616309057634125118
BAKKEN2-20202527902712135930691910193
BAKKEN1-202021198520534512518184460
BAKKEN12-20191612301334523194413400
BAKKEN11-201930421242392156625444960
BAKKEN10-201931466350652744615641740
BAKKEN9-201930413337122142548338660
BAKKEN8-201931425744002235409531900
BAKKEN7-20193043594273259639232608491
BAKKEN6-201929486246952677495941340
BAKKEN5-20192936944232215233251965677
BAKKEN4-201930618657355142616152590
BAKKEN3-201931396341144462407432000
BAKKEN2-20192337433617200933688451869
BAKKEN1-20193155155590273549643393684
BAKKEN12-201831755974923575680344971207
BAKKEN11-201830669166602971602232062671
BAKKEN10-201831531553373012584619353760
BAKKEN9-201829543655123139598040711812
BAKKEN8-20183081978275441190172878628
BAKKEN7-20183090688929488311718116180
BAKKEN6-20182982598132460190848268718
BAKKEN5-201828788278624300867069041673
BAKKEN4-201830774878663704852367561669
BAKKEN3-201828893189493886982559743758
BAKKEN2-2018281124711493105421237283493930
BAKKEN1-2018311578415733686217362141923064
BAKKEN12-2017309637963744631060171583342
BAKKEN11-201730801177803924881259692742
BAKKEN10-201713301330821194331420351236
BAKKEN9-201726565555403463622138042414
BAKKEN8-2017313010326613103311321593
BAKKEN7-201731802778594289883044514374
BAKKEN6-2017299227923253771014955484598
BAKKEN5-201731107421065566931181682173597
BAKKEN4-2017307960804710239875656002915
BAKKEN3-201717520452443698572540331416
BAKKEN2-201727775975903854853553792695
BAKKEN1-201714370637751443407620511926
BAKKEN12-2016231673171623915051192214
BAKKEN11-201625757077243090681354451045
BAKKEN10-201631140541408774241264811489551
BAKKEN9-2016301450614589769114506122421729
BAKKEN8-2016311684517227100911684616120238
BAKKEN7-2016311665816274755316658150451609
BAKKEN6-20163019082190481098820072179830
BAKKEN5-20163122329226241274422329160403854
BAKKEN4-2016302931628885158332931625913269
BAKKEN3-20162735886362942369535886300691883
BAKKEN2-20162234523337454350334523233407396

Update On Spot -- RBN Energy; Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Easter Weekend -- April 10, 2023

Locator: 44354B.

Zelle vs Venmo: which to use and when. Forbes. October 11, 2022.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 43

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $80.75.

Natural gas: $2.159.

Monday, April 10, 2023: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 279 for the year
38845, conf, Enerplus, Embroider 149-93-05A-8H, these wells are tracked here;
38754, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-14H,
36145, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 1B UTFH,

Sunday, April 9, 2023: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 276 for the year
38764, conf, Whiting, Locken Federal 12-11TFX,
38753, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-13H,
38666, conf, Enerplus, Eyelet 149-93-05A-08H, these wells are tracked here;

Saturday, April 8, 2023: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter, 273 for the year
38865, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-4MBHX,
38440, conf, Hess, EN-Sable-157-93-3534H-5, these wells are tracked here;

Friday, April 7, 2023: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 271 for the year
38846, conf, Enerplus, Patch 149-93-05A-08H, these wells are tracked here;
38752, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-7H,

RBN Energy: Why SPOT will change everything in the U.S. crude oil export market. Archived.

See The Guardian's take on this export terminal and others:

The Biden administration's plan to potentially allow four new oil terminals along the Texas Gulf Coast would unleash a "carbon bomb" potentially equivalent to three years of all U.S. emissions and belie President Joe Biden's stated intent to "act boldly on climate," according to an analysis published on Tuesday, February 21, 2023..
The analysis—which was conducted for The Guardian by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO that tracks fossil fuel projects around the world—found that if all four terminals are built and operate at full capacity for their expected 30-year lifespan, they will generate a staggering 24 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases.
According to The Guardian:
The federal government has already quietly approved the Sea Port Oil Terminal project, a proposed offshore oil platform located 35 miles off the Texas coast, south of Houston, and will decide whether to allow three other nearby oil terminal proposals.
Combined, the four terminals would expand U.S. oil exports by nearly seven million barrels every day, handling the capacity of half of all current national oil exports.
"The amount of oil going through these projects, and the resulting emissions, are pretty astounding," said Global Energy Monitor analyst Baird Langenbrunner.
Sea Port Oil Terminal (STOP), the largest of the projects, would produce an estimated seven billion metric tons of annual greenhouse emissions, followed by Bluewater Texas (6.7 billion metric tons), Blue Marlin (6.6 billion), and Texas GulfLink (3.8 billion).
In 2019, U.S. emissions totaled 6.6 billion metric tons, according to the analysis.
"Even if the emissions are a bit lower... we are fast-forwarding ourselves to the date where we have to stop completely emitting," said Langenbrunner.
"Any extra emissions are in direct conflict with climate goals and it's hypocritical for the Biden administration to allow these things to get built and then say the U.S. wants to decrease its own emissions."
SPOT was approved by the Biden administration last November over the strong objections of climate, environmental, and other campaigners. As currently planned, the project would consist of several pipelines—the longest of them 50 miles long—storage tanks, and a deepwater oil export platform. Last month, green and community groups sued the U.S. Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration (MARAD) over its approval of SPOT. 

From RBN Energy link above:

If you think, as we do, that (1) U.S. crude oil production is likely to increase by 1.5 to 2 MMb/d over the next five years, (2) almost all those barrels will be light-sweet crude that needs to be exported, and (3) exporters will overwhelmingly favor the marine terminals that can accommodate Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), it would be hard to ignore the game-changing impacts that Enterprise Products Partners’ planned Sea Port Oil Terminal could have. SPOT, which could be completed as soon as 2026, will have robust pipeline connections from the Permian and other shale plays and be capable of fully loading a 2-MMbbl VLCC in one day, enough to handle virtually all the incremental exports we’re likely to see over the next five years.
In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the fast-increasing role of VLCCs in U.S. crude oil exports and the potentially seismic impacts of the SPOT project. RBN’s middle-of-the-road “Mid” forecast sees U.S. crude oil production increasing to 14 MMb/d by 2028, about 2 MMb/d higher than the 2022 average, with three-quarters of that incremental output coming from the Permian and most of the rest from other shale plays that also produce high-API-gravity, low-sulfur oil. Given that U.S. refineries’ ability to economically process light-sweet crude is essentially maxed out, it’s a good bet that almost all those incremental barrels will be bound for export terminals along the Gulf Coast. At’s just as likely that, on their way to overseas refineries, as many of those barrels as physically possible will be headed through terminals like the Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC) and South Texas Gateway (STG) — both in the Corpus Christi area — whose docks can receive and load VLCCs with minimal reverse lightering, the most cost-effective way to move massive volumes of oil to Europe and Asia.