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Saturday, March 4, 2023

Rambling On A Saturday Night -- March 4, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Wow, wow, wow, I'm in a great mood. 

I don't know where to start.

The stock market Friday certainly has something to do with it. 

The weather here in north Texas ... ditto.

All the building -- commercial and residential real estate ... ditto ... one comment --- 

I'm used to seeing "big houses" and "McMansion" here in Texas but there's something new in the immediate area -- I'm seeing "McMansions on steroids" on double lots being built -- I mean, I have seen some huge McMansions in southern California, Hollywood Hills (Los Angeles), in my lifetime, but I'm just not used to seeing these huge houses in this area .... it almost makes me think a lot of those California folks moving to Texas are building "California-style McMansions" here. Remember, the "$1.5 to $2.0 million" one would pay for a McMansion in southern California will get you the same house here in north Texas for  $600,000 to $800,000, depending on location, much of it having to do with school district, and perhaps proximity to DFW. 

I don't know. But the houses being built now in this area are nothing I've seen before.

Teslas: by the way, more and more Teslas are being seen in our area. I don't see any new charging stations.

Television. TCM: I'm watching "Some Like It Hot" for the third time today. 

I don't watch it from start to finish, I watch it in bits and pieces due to all the driving I do for Sophia and other family errands. But this time, something different -- I'm listening to "The Mamas and The Papas" in the background on YouTube, and watching Marilyn Monroe with the sound off. Wow, there are some "shots" of Marilyn Monroe you don't "see" unless the sound is off and you are only paying attention to the video. The video is obviously "PG" but it doesn't take much imagination to see the "R." No complaints here.

Baking: I made a batch of chocolate chip cookies this evening. They taste perfect; they are really, really, really good but they don't look as nice as usual. I thought it was "old" baking soda, but I went to this site for trouble-shooting. The problem, without question: too much flour, and not by much, probably a tablespoon too much. It was not the baking soda at all.

Someone wrote this. I wonder if it's true? Baking SODA doesn't go bad (expiration dates aren't regulated so often they are less meaningful than we'd like). Baking POWDER does. Baking soda is just calcium carbonate. It should be fine as long as it was baking soda you needed.

Investing:

  • always fully invested in equities
    • no bonds
  • park money in T; T used as checking account
  • I do not time the market; regardless of the market:
    • buy: second and fourth week of each month (this is a change, was first and third week)

Investing: "new money" allotment --

  • "40-30-20-5-5":
  • 40%: big cap value; dividend paying; BRK-like;
  • 30: beat down tech, copper;
  • 20: oil; second tier;
  • 5: healthcare
  • 5: Daimler Truck

Investing:

  • on the blog I follow a lot of sectors, but that doesn't mean I invest in them;
  • I won't invest in anything "that keeps me up at night [worrying]"
    • example: I won't touch streaming -- DIS, for example -- but very, very interesting to follow
    • example: I won't touch third tier (or worse) oil; majors and second tier independents only; I stay away from pure-play Bakken plays; one exception, small position in CHRD;
    • example: airlines; never;
    • example: refiners -- never, until recently; refining is looking very, very interesting
    • example: utilities -- no more; I have what I have and won't add any more
    • example: pipelines, ditto; no more; I have what I have and won't add any more
  • good, bad, indifferent: tech -- semiconductors -- building significant positions;

Investing: the importance of reading, surfing, studying, link here:

Investing, bonds, link here:

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Miscellaneous

The blog:

  • residing rent-free in the minds of many: Trump, and Covid-19
  • Covid: I still follow Covid-19 very closely: the science, the disease, the virus;
    • politics: I care not a bit;
    • I give the US government an A+ with regard to their handling of the pandemic; I grade on the curve
    • China's handling of the pandemic: at best a D; probably an F.
    • among the states: California, B; Florida, A-; Texas, A.
  • Trump:
    • the GOP better sort this out sooner than later;
    • the DEMs have a way of bringing more folks inside their tent
    • the GOP seems to have too many tents, if that makes sense
      • we have the Trump tent, the Florida tent, the Texas tent, the Midwest “fly-over” tent, the southern California tent.
    • in national elections, a big tent is needed, not a lot of little tents

Music. The first song in the trilogy --- "Dedicated To The One I Love" hits me pretty hard tonight. 

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Family

Sports: granddaughter Olivia -- soccer -- huge weekend --

  • high school soccer: her team won 4 - 1 Friday night;
  • club soccer -- FC Dallas soccer: won both games today, and today, in the second game which they won, 3 - 0, Olivia scored two of the three goals.

Her cousin, Caleb, 17, in Williston, ND -- set a new WHS 100-yard backstroke record (swimming, of course).

Her cousin, same age as Sophia, 8, Gemma in Williston, ND -- "Dancer of the Year" -- local competition.

Her other cousin, Kaitlyn, 16, also in Williston, ND -- competing in global CrossFit competition; North Dakota venue is being held in Bismarck; perhaps other cities, I don't know.

For Investors -- Themes -- 2023

Themes -- link here.

This was posted back in January, 2022, more than a year ago! Wow. Pay particular attention to "commodities: a generational opportunity."

For investors:

A huge "thank-you" to the Biden administration. More tomorrow.

Covid, Sweden, Excess Deaths, And All That Jazz -- March 4, 2023

Link here.

This is so cool, so incredibly cool.

Here's the screenshot:

Now, just the bar graph:


In that graphic / screenshot, there is one outlier and only one outlier. And it's NOT Sweden.

And not one reader in a 1,000 will be able to explain the outlier even after it's pointed out.

I'll do that later; give folks a chance to see if they can spot the one outlier. And then, see if anyone can explain it.

UNP Dividend -- March 4, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

See this post for UNP vs BNSF earnings. 

UNP currently pays 2.5%. 

Hunch: UNP will announce a new quarterly dividend of $1.43 with a June 30, 2023, pay date. 

SCCO -- Southern Copper -- March 4, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

In an earlier note I talked about the market on Friday, but because this is not an investment site, that post was pulled down, put in draft, and will be re-posted some time in the future.

[This post will also be posted for 30 minutes or so, and then also put in draft for a few days, again, because this is not an investing site.]

All I will say is that Friday, March 3, 2023, may have been the best day I've ever had on the market.

I forgot to look at SCCO in which I took a big position with my "40-30-20-5-5" new money allocation, where 30% of my new money when into beat down tech, which included SCCO, not so much because it was "tech" but because it was so "beat down" and like "chips," copper will be huge in the coming / continuing tech revolution.

So, how did SCCO do yesterday?

Link here


Warren Buffett

 

Links

Portfolio watch: link here

A timeline: link here. 1936 - 2013.

Updates

April 4, 2024: closing the loop on Warren Buffett and Paramount.

March 7, 2023: Warren Buffett buys more OXY.

March 5, 2023: Warren Buffett and CVX

March 5, 2023: fun with numbers.

March 4, 2023: UNP vs BNSF.

March 4, 2023: a buffet of links.

March 2, 2023: Berkshire Hathaway's cash horde.

February 28, 2023: annual letter a disappointment.

February 27, 2023: New England Asset Management.

February 25, 2023: 2022 results.

February 15, 2023: Apple and Buffett.

February 14, 2023: oil and Buffett.

February 14, 2023: TSM and Buffett (later sold it). Includes his equity portfolio

January 13, 2023: Buffett is full of crap.

January 8, 2023: buybacks.

August 15, 2022: 2Q22, update here.

May 2, 2022: 1Q22 update here.

May 1, 2022: Buffett -- CVX.

March 17, 2022: Buffett taking huge position in oil, notably CVX and OXY. 

March 13, 2022: Buffett is "in the money." An OXY update.

January 22, 2022: I remember a year ago, all the grief Warren Buffett received because he was not buying technology .... or cryptocurrency.

March 11, 2021: idle thoughts.

March 1, 2021: Scorecard. I was right the first time. One of the worst graphics ever for those still arguing that BRK is a great investment.

  • BRK has been "awful" for the past ten years, if not longer;
  • AAPL saved "Berkshire Hathaway"

February 28, 2021: I was wrong.

February 27, 2021: impressed. Not impressed

February 17, 2021: more on Buffett initiating a position in Chevron.

August 16, 2016: Buffett, BNSF, apple, the iCloud, and all that jazz.

Original Post
February 17, 2021

Warren Buffett: there are only a few things that fascinate me right now, e.g. Apple, semiconductors, Amazon. The list changes from time to time, but a pretty comprehensive list is over at the "Investors" page, tabbed at the top of the blog.

I'll have to add Warren Buffett to that list. That was a huge oversight. I don't have time or the interest to read his SEC filings so I am at the mercy of the media reports. Some thoughts:

  • timing?
    •  his "13F filings" are purposely delayed, so by the time we see them, things have changed
    • we don't know exactly when he bought something; and we certainly don't know when he started looking;
    • he could have been following CVX and/or VZ for years before finally "pulling the trigger"
  • what was he thinking?
    • why did he choose VZ and not T-Mobile or ATT?
    • why did he choose CVX from among the seven major international integrated oils? That will be an interesting question to explore.
  • value vs growth?
    • wow, this is a story in itself; I think if one were to ask, most would consider Buffett a value investor; not a growth investor and not a trader;
    • did anyone note that both VZ and CVX pay hefty dividends? almost 5% for VZ; and, almost 6% for CVX (and perhaps more, depending when he actually bought them)
    • back in October, CVX was trading at $66; today, it is trading above $90; the dividend has remained the same; you can do the math ($5.16 / $66 = 7.8%)
    • VZ has been in a very narrow trading range for the past six months
  • why would he "sell" AAPL? 
    • I think he would have trimmed his holdings regardless, but had AAPL paid a few special dividends along the way or raised its quarterly dividend, Buffett might have stuck around; but indications are Tim Cook as other ideas;
    • expensive foray into EVs; Buffett likes wide moats; it is obvious there are no moats at all when it comes to EVs;
  • connecting the dots:
    • did you all know that Verizon owns Yahoo!Finance? Actually, Verizon owns all of Yahoo!
    • is Google under scrutiny around the world? Does Apple have an interesting relationship with Google? Is there a special relationship between Warren Buffett and Tim Cook? This is not rocket science; one can connect the dots; I'm not suggesting anything will happen, just suggesting things that could happen.
  • gold?
    • what was that all about?

UNP vs BNSF Financial Results -- March 4, 2023

Updates

Later, 7:06 p.m. CT: after reviewing the rail network for both railroads -- UNP and BNSF -- UNP has the much better network. UNP beats BNSF in the following areas:

  • UNP with southern Texas route to California; vs northern route for BNSF
  • UNP has two rails across south to California; vs just one for BNSF
  • UNP has two rails south-to-north (and vice versa, of course) through all of California vs one rail for BNSF
  • UNP much, much more robust in Texas;

Original Post 

I've always considered UNP and BNSF (wholly-owned by BRK, Warren Buffett) as identical assets.

UNP: 4Q22 and full year 2022 results.

BNSF: annual letter, tax year 2022.

Winter Reading Program -- March 4, 2023

Nothing new here. This has all been previously posted. 

1. California: America's High-Stakes Experiment, Peter Schrag, c. 2006.

  • California politics, late 1990s into the 21st century. 
  • how the California public education system (kindergarten through university) collapsed. 
  • what happens when 1% of the population accounts for 49% of the state's revenue.

2. Silent Spring Revolution: John F. Kennedy, Rachel Carson, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, and The Great Environmental Awakening, Douglas Brinkley, 2022.

  • "EPA" politics
  • incredibly good writing;

3. The Rise and Reign of the Mammals: A New History, From the Shadow of the Dinosaurs to US, Steve Brusatte, c. 2022.

  • one of four books that should be read by every high school junior / senior who plans to major in the life sciences in college; the others:
    • The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Evolution, Richard Dawkins and Yan Wong, c. 2016 (revised and expanded from earlier edition) 
    • The Mistaken Extinction: Dinosaur Evolution and the Origin of Birds, Lowell Dingus and Timothy Rowe, c. 1998
    • How The Mountains Grew: A New Geological History of North America, John Dvorak, c. 2021.

4. The Age of Entanglement: When Quantum Physics Was Born, Louisa Gilder, c. 2008; and, Too Big for a Single Mind: How the Greatest Generation of Physicists Uncovered the Quantum World, Tobia Hürter, c. 2021.

  • the two books that should be ready by every high school senior who plans to major in physics or chemistry in college

5. Mailer: The Naked and the Dead; Selected Letters 1945 - 1946. J. Michael Lennon, editor, c. 2023.

  • "everybody" talks about reading "Mailer." And "no one" has read "Mailer." This is the only Mailer book worth reading.

6. Chip War: The Fight For the World's Most Critical Technology, Chris Miller, c. 2022. 

  • every investor needs to read this book

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Winter Reading Program, 2022 - 2023

My 2022 - 2023 winter reading program -- ends May 31, 2023.

 The books

  • Silent Spring Revolution: John F. Kennedy, Rachel Carson, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, and The Great Environmental Awakening, Douglas Brinkley, 2022.
  • California: America's High-Stakes Experiment, Peter Schrag, c. 2006.
  • The Book of Eels, Our Enduring Fascination with the Most Mysterious Creature in the Natural World, Patrick Svensson, c. 2020.
  • The Mind of a Bee, Lars Chittka, c. 2022. Princeton University Press. A scientific treatise.
  • The Rise and Reign of the Mammals: A New History, From the Shadow of the Dinosaurs to US, Steve Brusatte, c. 2022.
  • Lady Almina and the Real Downton Abbey: The Lost Legacy of Highclere Castle, The Countess of Carnarvon, 2011.
  • The Lord of the Rings, J. R. R. Tolkien, deluxe edition, 2004. Notes on the text: Douglas A. Anderson, May, 2004.
  • Cinema Speculation, Quentin Tarantino, November 1, 2022.
  • The Age of Entanglement: When Quantum Physics Was Born, Louisa Gilder, c. 2008.
  • Chip War: The Fight For the World's Most Critical Technology, Chris Miller, c. 2022.
  • Indigenous Continent: The Epic Contest for North America, Pekka Hämäläinen, September, 2022. 
  • Too Big for a Single Mind: How the Greatest Generation of Physicists Uncovered the Quantum World, Tobia Hürter, c. 2021.
  • Mailer: The Naked and the Dead; Selected Letters 1945 - 1946. J. Michael Lennon, editor, c. 2023. See note here.

Production -- Putting Things Into Perspective -- March 4, 2023

Link here.


Three million bbls? Three days of production in the Bakken.

100 million bbls? Twenty days of production in the Permian.

The Market -- March 4, 2023

Link here.

Back where we started:

Or an alternative:

Amazon Clinic -- March 4, 2023

The other day I mentioned "Amazon Pharmacy" with regard to new insulin-pricing developments. 

Today, in my mailbox:

And, now along with Prime Video --

Even Barron's Noticed -- March 4, 2023

The weather has been incredible here in Texas the last few weeks. Yesterday was beautiful, today is better and tomorrow will be even better.

Reminds me of Harbor Freight's marketing: good, better, best.

The nights have been incredibly clear and we are getting spectacular views of Venus and Jupiter. At the right time, one might get lucky and even see two planets inside the crescent of the moonn. 

Even Barron's noticed

China: Demographics -- March 4, 2023

Link here.

Peter Zeihan was all over this years ago. 

Russian Oil And Gas Revenue Tanks In February -- Friday, March 3, 2023

Some readers feel the data is manipulated suggesting Russian sales are much better than being reported, based on links to Russian government spokesmen. 

Link here.


Link here.