Clearing Out The In-Box -- July 18, 2023

Locator: 45151ECON.

SPR: much ado about nothing.

• wow, not only a "nothing-burger" but incredibly irrelevant.
• consider the source;

Laser-focused on dividends

• BK: from 37 cents to 42 cents; a 13.5% increase

LNG:

• US has supplied roughly 50% of the LNG that western Europe imported last year. Link here.

Earnings:

• big banks crushing earnings expectations
• BNY Mellon beats;
• Bank of America: profits rise 19%;
• Costco shares pop;
• profit growth for retail giant Costco Wholesale (COST) has risen sharply the last couple of quarters, from 4% three quarters ago to 18% last quarter, link here. 

Economy?

• recession -- what happened? Ten reasons 
• all you nedd to know:

• "Goldilocks" -- GS
• global economes:
  
• risk of recession in US lowered:
• UK on brink of severe recession
• Germany in mild recession
• US in mild recession (Charlie Munger)
• retail sales: underwhelm but positive m/m
• retail sales: rose in June as inflation eased! 
• Wow! Let's go Brandon.

AI:

• Nvidia more than triples in 2023.
• Citi: target price raised from $420 to $520 -- Barron's --  link here.
• Nvidia is dominant in chips; forget the competition -- Barron's, link here.

Taylor Swift:

• first female artist to have four albums on Billboard's top 10 at once. Wow.
• actually moves the needle on regional GDP when she comes to town; source: Federal Reserve

Apple:

• finally, Apple Maps!

EVs:

• Ford cuts prices, $6,000 - $10,000
• Ford's shares slump;
• the phrase EV-makers don't want to hear: "rising unsold inventories"
• Tesla announces Cybertruck coming off production line: VIN: TSLACT000000001 released.

A bridge too far:

• Zeihan.

Putin: destroyed his economy:

• Russia went from "bad" to "worse" in only months; let's go Vlad!

California, update, Peter Zeihan:

California has been one of the most successful states in the US, primarily because of things outside its control. Large-scale inward international immigration has enabled California to continue its population growth. The millennial desire for an urban coastal experience has brought a constant influx of people in their 20s and 30s, which has helped with taxes and a steady labor force. Now combine all these people with a rich capital environment and boom...Silicon Valley. 

Ideas flow from the tech startups in the valley to factories in China, Japan, Taiwan, etc., making California the gateway to East Asia. And when those products get imported back to the States, their first stop is the Long Beach Port along CA's coast. This is just another external element contributing to California's solid economic model. But now, all of the factors that have propped up California are flipping. Immigration is stalling. The capital situation is upside down. The cost of living is through the roof, so the labor force is moving to places like Texas. Rising tensions with Asia are causing reshoring and nearshoring. The only thing California can do now is reinvent itself.