AMEX -- Story Of The Day -- January 27, 2023

Will raise dividend 15%.

Remember: we're in a recession.

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Recession Talk

Link here. This is Yahoo!Finance

And, all the Legacy car companies -- GM, F -- are up today. As is Tesla. People are spending money.

See my parting shots last night:

Random comment:

At our monthly Schwab luncheon today I saw a lot of financial slides. 

It seemed every slide had at least one item that caught my eye but an item which the speaker did not address.

The question on everyone's mind was the question of "recession": are we already in a recession? If not, what is the likelihood of a recession? And when? And how severe? And how long?

The last recession was 2Q20 and lasted one month (various sources; here's one source). 

Looking at all the graphs today, one thing jumped out at me. It certainly appears that the average  American consumer is a) a whole lot better off; and, b) a whole lot better prepared going into 2023 than when that same average American consumer woke up on March 13, 2020.

One example: even when the "emergencies" were declared in early 2020, it took a long time to get stimulus money distributed, and the stimulus money fell well short of what was needed, and the stimulus money ended before the need for the aid ended. On the other hand, just as one example, pay for military retirees and social security recipients jumped 8.7% -- which will continue "forever," and likely increase again in 2024.

Another example, Americans placed a lot of cash in their savings accounts during the lock down. They are going into 2023 with a huge amount of cash in savings and already prices are coming down.

I think it's pretty much agreed that the Fed is more likely to overshoot than undershoot its target. But unlike what was going on in late 2019 / early 2020, the American consumer and the entire American economic system is so much better prepared for what comes next. Way better.

And, then I can't forget this story, from the other day:

Port of New York: new threshold for empty container fee on ocean containers. 

Ports of Los Angeles: container dwell fee put on hold through November 18, 2022. New program announced October 25, 2021.

US supply chain congestion eases: carriers seek cargo. January 25, 2023:

Turning to the US west coast, they commented that: “The picture is not as bright in Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), where transit times increased by 41.7% and 24.5%, respectively, in December compared to November. That sets LAX back to a congestion level similar to last April, and LB to last June's levels. Oakland improved its average transit times by 26.4%. Vessels arriving from China and other parts of Asia were quicker to berth in Oakland than they were in LA/LB.”

Ports post strong volume: despite December drop-off. January 25, 2023. 

Despite a significant slowdown in the second half of 2022, two major West Coast ports approached the record-setting pace they had in 2021.

Port of Los Angeles officials said the facility still finished as the nation’s busiest container port for the 23rd consecutive year, processing 9,911,158 20-foot-equivalent units, down nearly 7.2% from 2021’s 10,677,609.

For December the port processed 728,871 containers, down 7.3% to 786,588 year-over-year.

Demand for industrial space? At the ports. January 19, 2023. What's driving that need for space? Cars. The report showed that the automotive industry has seen its demand increase by more than 156% since 2021 to servee an influx of electric vehicles. This correlates with huge numbers from first reading GDP -- see above.  

The report showed that the automotive industry has seen its demand increase by more than 156% since 2021 to serve an influx of electric vehicle and battery manufacturing endeavors across the country. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

And demand for construction, machinery and materials companies grew by more than 41% this year because of the oversized pipeline of commercial and residential demand for housing. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

JLL added that with companies reevaluating their existing operations and addressing the COVID-induced supply chain disruptions, demand will continue to increase for manufacturing and automotive users. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

From a macro perspective, supply chain woes continue to create backlogs at the ports. The concept and practice of reshoring have come into play, and many occupiers have placed this at the forefront of their business operations. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

Tight availability, high rents, and port congestion along the West Coast have pushed many occupiers to the Southeast region and to ports along the East Coast, such as Savannah and Charleston, which are seeing record TEU volumes. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

And don't forget about the third leg of this three-legged stool: New Orleans.

NEW ORLEANS — The pandemic-era collapse of supply chains spurred speculation that globalization was on the decline, as companies vowed to become less reliant on foreign providers of goods and services.

But if New Orleans is any example, the world is headed for less of a retreat from global trade and more of an overhaul to how it operates.

A critical gateway between the Mississippi River and global oceans, New Orleans has been an entry and exit point for the United States since before the Louisiana Purchase. The city is now betting that position will continue — and even deepen — as the world enters a new era of global integration.

The New Orleans port is one of the nation’s busiest for agricultural exports like soybeans and corn. But it has struggled to compete for the lucrative imports that are ferried on huge ships from Asia, in part because those vessels cannot fit under a local bridge. As global supply chains rearrange in the pandemic’s wake, New Orleans’ proximity to Mexico and its position on the Mississippi River could help make it a crucial stop in what many expect to be a more resilient supply chain of the future.

Executives at the New Orleans port are wagering on that transformation: They recently unveiled a plan to spend $1.8 billion on expanding the port to a new site that can handle more trade and accommodate bigger boats. That optimism about the future of trade breaks with some of the worst fears of the past few years, as pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, COVID lockdowns in China and Russia’s war with Ukraine shook confidence in the global trading system.

Policymakers and company executives vowed to become less reliant on China and to locate supply chains closer to home. That prompted predictions that the world was headed for a period of “de-globalization,” in which the trade and financial ties that have brought countries closer in recent decades would spin into reverse. So far, economic data shows few signs of such a sharp retreat. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

Anyway, do your own google search -- us ports los angeles news. I'm moving on. Remember: we're in a recession.