What Were They Thinking? December 13, 2022

Same with the "southern surge."

As a reminder, "every" county along the Texas southern border voted for Beto (over incumbent governor Abbott) -- and Beto is for "open borders." So, we'll see how the "open border" folks feel about the record surge the Biden administration expects at the end of the year when the "Trump restrictions" end. 

Right now, we're running about 6,000 "encounters" a day; officials are predicting 9,000 "encounters" when "open borders" are the norm. My hunch: it's going to be a lot more that 9,000. 

For the record, this subject no longer interests me one way or the other. But I'll watch it from afar, about a thousand miles afar.

Ten New Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 13, 2022

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $75.29.

Natural gas: $6.952

Ten new permits, #39481 - #39490, inclusive:

• Operator: Oasis (9); Grayson Mill;
• Field: Dimmick Lake (5); Painted Woods (2); Rosebud (2); Alger
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has a permit for an Esther Hynek well, NWNW, section 10-155-93; 
• to be sited 1093 FNL and 584 FWL
• Oasis has:
• two Ledahl permits, Painted Woods, SESW 33-154-102, 
• to be sited 991 FSL and 2170 FWL; and, 1118 FSL and 2215 FWL;
• two Ledahl permits, Rosebud, SESW 33-154-102; 
• to be sited 1033 FSL and 2185 FWL; and, 1076 FSL and 2200 FWL:
• five Allen permits; SESE 36-151-97;
• to be sited between 474 FSL and 586 FWL and between 677 FEL and 747 FEL

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35921, 1,695, CLR, Chloe 5-20H,
• 35922, 1,449, CLR, Chloe 4-20H,
• 35923, 1,350, CLR, Chloe 3-20H,
• 35924, 1,548, CLR, Chloe 2-20H,
• 38814, 4,387, Grayson Mill, Bugs 27-22 4H,

Three Oil Stocks To Watch As OPEC+ Presents Largest Production Cut Since 2020 -- December 13, 2022

From Alex Kimani, Oilprice, back in October, 2020:

• Devon
• from BoA earlier: Devon, Pioneer Natural Resources, and EOG Resources
• Alex Kimani selected Devon from those three
• Occidental Petroleum
• Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)

Federal Indian Land Definitions -- December 13, 2022

Link here. 

There's a story about a lawsuit here of which you may or may not be interested; it involves Devon / WPX.

The lead-into the story was what interested me. The story: September 11, 2022.

The lead-in:

Fort Berthold Indian Reservation sits in the heart of Bakken Oil Field in western North Dakota. The lands are rich with resources such as oil and gas.

Currently, there are 2,645 wells on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation, and companies are expected to drill 3,907 more wells before the field is fully developed.

The lands belong to the federally recognized tribes known as the Mandan, Hidatsa & Arikara Nation, also known as the Three Affiliated Tribes, and their members. The Tribe’s interest, the allotted interest, and the fee interest make up 980,000 acres, which are managed by the Bureau of Indian Affairs on Fort Berthold Indian Reservation.

Lands held by individual members are known as Allotted Lands or Allotments which were granted to individual Indian owners by the United States government. The owners of these lands are known as Allottees, and they own undivided interests which comprise 343,000 acres on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation.

In order to drill oil and gas wells or obtain a right of way for land use on these Allotted Lands, oil & gas companies must obtain consent from a majority (51% or more) of these landowners by signature from the Allottees and/or landowners.

Pursuant to the Code of Federal Regulations (“CFR”) which governs these lands and their use, all rights of way and other encumbrances must identify the specific use and purpose for which they are granted. The specific use and purpose of the encumbrance must be spelled out in the consent forms provided to the landowners by the companies and in the encumbrance granted by the BIA.

The Bureau of Indian Affairs and their offices are charged with reviewing the consent forms and the applications to determine if they should grant these rights of way and other encumbrances with the consent of a majority of the Allottees who own the tract on which the encumbrance will be granted, however, the oil and gas companies are responsible for providing Allottees with accurate information about what they intend to use their lands for and obtain consent forms from the owners to provide to the BIA with their request for a right of way or other encumbrance.

When landowners feel those encumbrances have been violated or their lands have been trespassed upon, they ask the BIA to investigate the matter and the BIA is charged with investigation and issuing a decision regarding whether or not there has in fact been a trespass. The BIA has the power by law to make these determinations and to terminate the encumbrance/right of way if they feel a trespass has occurred or take other action as they see fit. Parties impacted by their decisions have the right to appeal such decisions through the process spelled out in the CFR.

For the lawsuit, go to the link. 

De Soto, Kansas City, Kansas -- December 13, 2022

From Barron's: 

Electric vehicle start-up Lucid is securing electric-vehicle batteries ahead of its product line expansion. 

On Tuesday, Lucid said that Panasonic will supply EV batteries for its full lineup of electric vehicles. 

The batteries will come from facilities in Japan as well as a new plant to be built in De Soto, Kansas. 

What intrigued me? De Soto, Kansas.

De Sota, Kansas: within the Kansas City, Kansas, metropolitan area. 

Now, Kansas City?

Link here.

The Kansas City region is a top automotive logistics hub, home to major production facilities for both Ford and General Motors, as well as nearly 70 auto industry suppliers. 

In the last decade, the Kansas City region has seen significant economic investment from the automotive sector.

Reinvestment in General Motors’ Fairfax, KS, operation ($265 million in 2018 and $650 million in 2013), Ford’s Claycomo, MO, facility ($100 million in 2021, $400 million in 2019 and $1.2 billion in 2011), and Ford's stamping plant in Liberty, MO, ($101 million in 2020, $5.8 million in 2019 and $260 million in 2011) has resulted in a surge of interest and investment from automotive suppliers looking to the KC region for new facilities. 

Kansas City has been named the #2 auto industry trading hub in North America by the Brookings Institution and employs more than 20,941 individuals in the auto and transportation industry.

Ford’s KC plant has been cited as its most productive worldwide, producing the new Ford Transit Van and best-selling F-150 truck.

For The Archives -- Our Main Thoroughfare Grapevine To Fort Worth -- Texas -- December 13, 2022

Link here.

Best Managed -- Most Innovative -- Top Ten -- For 2022

Link here.

Pfizer -- December 13, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Updates

December 21, 2022: a most interesting story.

December 13, 2022:

• Moderna-Merck-partnered cancer vaccine meets primary efficacy endpoint.
• link here: for treatment of stage III/IV melanoma, following complete resection.
  

December 13, 2022:

• Pfizer sees $10 billion - $15 billion in potential revenue from mRNA vaccines by 2030.

Original Post

After posting this note below, yesterday, I received a note from a reader regarding Pfizer's history from 2012 - 2016 time frame. Amazing how fast things can change.   

Best managed, one of five metrics -- financial strength:

Before getting to Pfizer, look at Moderna today: up 24%:

From today:

From yesterday:

Link here.

“Managers,” Peter Drucker wrote, “must understand that business results depend on a balance of efforts and results in a number of areas."

Yet if the Drucker Institute’s measure of corporate effectiveness is any indication, that is much easier said than done.

Of the 902 companies that we analyzed this year, a mere seven of them scored 60 or higher, on our 0-100 scale, in every category of performance that we examined: customer satisfaction, employee engagement and development, innovation, social responsibility and financial strength. 

The seven companies:

• Accenture PLC
• Apple Inc.
• HP Inc.
• Mastercard Inc.
• Pfizer Inc.
• Procter & Gamble Co.
• Visa Inc.

Tornado Alert -- Sirens Blaring -- 8:33 A.M. CT -- December 13, 2022

DFW airport: terminals are being evacuated. I assume folks are being rushed to lowest levels, inside, where there are no windows -- 8:55 a.m. CT. 

The storm. 

• huge rainstorm here in north Texas
• tornado alert: everyone to move into shelters -- alert, until 8:45 a.m. CT.
• Grapevine, Euless, DFW -- our location -- at ground zero
  
• I'm getting alerts from all sources
  
• schools: will shelter in placce 
• tornado alarm siren is now blaring -- I haven't heard this siren in more than two years

At the open: 

Crude oil, days supply: link here. Down to 25.2 days.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- December 13, 2022

Apple: wants to triple phone production in India. Link here.

Russian oil: headed to Asia. That's fine. It's all become much clearer.

• Three suppliers:
• US
• OPEC (Saudi Arabia, Iraq for oil; Qatar for natural gas; Iran, the wild card, for tension)
• Russia (lack of technology; long term, a really huge problem)
  
• Consumers:
• Europe: the biggest new market, short term, five year
• Asia: Saudi's domain; won't cede that market to Russia; the US a non-player
• India: a fight between Saudi and Iraq for that market; currently Iraq #1; Saudi, #2.
• US: has been energy independent for quite some time; will stay that way "forever";
  
• Big winner: US.

Russian oil: the discussion -- is it 3 million bopd or 1 million bopd of Russian oil headed to China?

Housing: well, that seems transitory.

Transitory: no one ever did provide a definition, or the "length of time" that would be transitory or not.

Fuel efficiency: GM, Stellantis -- rank as worst; link here.

• fuel efficiency: down (bad)
• CO2 emissions: up (bad) -- for those folks concerned about such things; I'm not.
• I was surprised to see Hyundai Motor on this short list.

Road to New England: link here.

Net imports: the highest I've seen is 24%. 

Back on September 19, 2022 -- only three months ago:

Now, today:

We'll have to come back to this.

• market open;
• huge rainstorm here in north Texas
• tornado alert: everyone to move into shelters -- alert, until 8:45 a.m. CT.
• schools: will shelter in placce 
• tornado alarm siren is now blaring -- I haven't heard this siren in more than two years
  

mRNA: Huge -- December 13, 2022

Link here.

I said this just a few days ago. 

It will be interesting to see all the naysayers eagerly accept mRNA treatment for cancer, chronic debilitating disease, and psoriasis.

mRNA is the new GMO.

CPI: Holy Mackerel -- December 13, 2022

CPI: way better than expected; but services still "hot" / "high"

• CPI: up 0.1% vs 0.3% estimate
• CPI: ex-food / energy -- up 6% y/y
• Dow implied open: up 822 points
• betting
• tomorrow: 50 bp
• February, 2023: 25 bp (down from previously expected 50 bp)
  

Decisions, decisions, decisions.

• choices
• do I stay home to watch the CPI announcement live on CNBC, or,
• go on my usual morning bike ride?
• JPMorgan says S&P could rally over 10% if CPE comes in at 6.9% or under (wishful thinking; LOL) 
• here we go: see above.
  

The weather: beautiful -

• rained overnight but appears to have quit for the day;
• very breezy, which is no fun for biking; wind from the south,
• warm; already 65° -- but the high is forecast to be in the mid-60s, which makes no sense;
• tornado alert and tornado watch already in our area this morning as forecast

*****************************
Market

F-150 Lightning: MotorTrend car of the year.

Best managed companies of 2022: Microsoft tops the list, #1, but not one of the top seven All-Stars

• link here: for entire list;
• link here: for top seven All-Stars;

Tomahawk: Japan's new toy -- Peter Zeihan. 

Copper could soar: link here. 

Chart of the day, Bloomberg -- distillate:

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- December 13, 2022

Pre-market:

• MPC: flat; closed up 4% yesterday;
• VLO: flat; closed up 5% yesterday;

********************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $73.59.

Natural gas: $6.783.

Wednesday, December 14, 2022: 34 for the month, 143 for the quarter, 687 for the year.
38930, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 4-33-4TFH,
38863, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 3-20H,
36899, conf, Bowline/Nine Point, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-7H,
35527, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-32-16H3U,

Tuesday, December 13, 2022: 30 or the month, 139 for the quarter,  683 for the year.
38486, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-4,
38216, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 11TFH,
38215, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 9H
36898, conf, Bowline/Nine Point, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-13H,

RBN Energy: is it too soon to celebrate comfortable winter propane market conditions?

Winter arrived early in many parts of the U.S. this year, with frigid temperatures and, in some places, snow measured in feet, not inches. Propane demand for heating is up, but surprisingly, inventories are high, prices are low and the outlook for the rest of the winter looks good. And propane just dodged a hail of bullets when Congress legislated away what had been a likely rail strike. Is it too early for propane marketeers to be dancing in the aisles about what looks like a safe outlook for winter season supplies? That’s the big question. Because spring is still more than three months away. And it’s a fact that sustained cold weather, logistical challenges and other factors can wreak havoc with any propane market. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the current state of the U.S. propane market, why things have improved so dramatically and, of course, what could still go wrong.