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Tuesday, December 13, 2022

CPI: Holy Mackerel -- December 13, 2022

CPI: way better than expected; but services still "hot" / "high"

  • CPI: up 0.1% vs 0.3% estimate
  • CPI: ex-food / energy -- up 6% y/y
  • Dow implied open: up 822 points
  • betting
    • tomorrow: 50 bp
    • February, 2023: 25 bp (down from previously expected 50 bp)

Decisions, decisions, decisions.

  • choices
    • do I stay home to watch the CPI announcement live on CNBC, or,
    • go on my usual morning bike ride?
  • JPMorgan says S&P could rally over 10% if CPE comes in at 6.9% or under (wishful thinking; LOL) 
  • here we go: see above.

The weather: beautiful -

  • rained overnight but appears to have quit for the day;
  • very breezy, which is no fun for biking; wind from the south,
  • warm; already 65° -- but the high is forecast to be in the mid-60s, which makes no sense;
  • tornado alert and tornado watch already in our area this morning as forecast

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Market

F-150 Lightning: MotorTrend car of the year.

Best managed companies of 2022: Microsoft tops the list, #1, but not one of the top seven All-Stars

Tomahawk: Japan's new toy -- Peter Zeihan. 

Copper could soar: link here

Chart of the day, Bloomberg -- distillate:

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