The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 12/02/22

Friday, December 2, 2022

Non-Complete Waivers (NCW) -- For The Archives -- December 2, 2022

From the NDIC several years ago:

Week 48: November 27, 2022 -- December 3, 2022

Top story:

Joe Biden is still president

Top international non-energy story:

Russian-Ukraine war continues

Top international energy story:

Saudi Arabia / OPEC agree to maintain oil production cuts

Top national non-energy story:

President Biden averts national railroad strike
triple threat: Covid-19; seasonal flu; and, RSV
Amazon: reports record sales over holiday shopping weekend

Top national energy story:

The draw.

Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Quick connects.

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

World cup: US advances from first round after defeating Iran; but loses to The Netherlands in the round of 16.

The CLR Edward Wells In Little Knife

The wells:

39457, loc, CLR, Edward 6-23H1, Little Knife,
39456, loc, CLR, Edward 5-23H, Little Knife,
39455, loc, CLR, Edward 4-23H1, Little Knife,
39454, loc, CLR, Edward 2-23HSL1, Little Knife,
39452, loc, CLR, Edward 12-23HSL, Little Knife,
39451, loc, CLR, Edward 11-23H1, Little Knife,
39450, loc, CLR, Edward 10-23H, Little Knife,
39449, loc, CLR, Edward 9-23H1, Little Knife,
39448, loc, CLR, Edward 8-23H1, Little Knife,
39447, loc, CLR, Edward 7-23H, Little Knife,
20363, 668, CLR, Edward 1-23H, Little Knife, t2/12; cum 336K 9/22;

plateaued early; maintained 1,500 bbls/month; nice well;

Graphic:

Five New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- December 2, 2022

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $79.98.

Natural gas: $6.281.

Five new permits, #39453 - #39457, inclusive:

Operators: CLR (4); Slawson
Fields: Little Knife (Dunn); Sanish (Mountrail)
Comments:

CLR has permits for four more Edward wells, SWSE 23-146-97;

to be sited 400 FSL and between 2484 FEL and 2612 FEL

Slawson has a permit for a Golden Eye Federal well, lot 1 section 2-153-91;

to be sited 301 FNL and 674 FEL

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

38815, 3,666, Grayson Mill, Lloyd 34-3 4H,

CDC "Chest Cold" Data For Week Ending December 2, 2022 -- Chest Colds Worse Since 2017?

Updates

Later: I don't think folks realize "we're" dealing with three outbreaks simultaneously: Covid-19; "seasonal flu; and, RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).

Later: from The LA Times today:

L.A. is seeing a major COVID surge as viral illnesses stress hospitals statewide
Coronavirus case and hospitalization rates have risen dramatically in Los Angeles County, which reentered the medium COVID-19 community level for the first time since the end of the summer Omicron wave, raising the possibility again of an indoor masking mandate.
Local and state health officials worry about difficult times ahead for California’s healthcare system, not only because of COVID-19, but also flu and RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus. Children’s hospitals throughout the state are already under stress because of RSV and other viral illnesses: Orange County declared a public emergency, and some San Diego County hospitals had to set up overflow tents outside of their emergency departments.
In Fresno County, the strain on hospitals extended to those for adults. At several hospitals, according to the county health department, “emergency rooms are close to disaster levels.”

Original Post

Link here.

Remember: vaccines exist for (pneumococcal) pneumonia, "seasonal flu," and, Covid-19.

Afraid To Take On Trump Mana A Mano -- Friday, December 2, 2022

This was the analysis of the mid-term elections (2022) by Governor DeSantis (R-Florida):

"We assumed we were going to end up with like 245 House members, we're at 222 it looks like, which is a huge underperformance," DeSantis said.

"The question is, you know, why did that happen?"

He observed that historic trends favored Republicans and that President Biden's unpopularity and widespread belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction should have led to big GOP gains in Congress.

"Usually those voters are going to want to vote for people that are offering an alternative, and yet some of those voters throughout the country, not in Florida, but throughout the country, even though they disapproved of Biden, even though they disapproved of the direction of the country, they still didn't want to vote, you know, for some of our candidates," DeSantis said.

"I don’t think it’s a question of necessarily being divided as a party, I think it’s like, OK, how do you run and win majorities?" he continued. "I think what we’ve done in Florida is we’ve shown that we’ve exercised leadership, we’ve not kowtowed, we’ve been willing to take on big interests … but producing results, and then that ends up attracting more people to want to be on your team," DeSantis said.

"That was not something that was happening throughout the rest of the country."

Bottom line: DeSantis is afraid to take on Trump mano a mano.

My analysis in contrast to that of Governor DeSantis:

On the blog from November 9, 2022:

2022 mid-terms, early analysis, based on less than five minutes of social media headlines:

no "red wave"
GOP debacle in big scheme of things
GOP to take US House but with centrist Republicans

Trump faction "out"

Texas: closer than many/most folks think

sure, it was a landslide for Abbott (using the term loosely) but look at the map
Beto: despite being perceived as supporting "open borders," the border counties supported Beto by huge margin ... a huge margin ... Hispanics did not turn out for GOP as headlined prior to the midterms -- huge implications for GOP in Texas
all five major urban areas in Texas went solidly for Beto
exception: Tarrant County (Ft Worth) and even Tarrant County was purple

if the Dems hold the US Senate, the 2022 mid-terms will be seen as a win for Biden, a loss for Trump

might the Dems' lead in the US Senate widen?
how in the world did the GOP let Dr Oz run?

my only takeaway, nationally

social issues took precedence over economy, inflation, price of gasoline

or voters felt Dems could handle the economy, inflation, price of gasoline better than the GOP;

Pennsylvania: blue
Florida: solidly red
Texas: purple

not a great optic for 2024 presidential election if one is aligned with GOP

This Is Texas, Folks — December 2, 2022

Link: https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/cross-country-cinderella-story-valentine-high-school/?itm_source=parsely-api&utm_source=texasmonthly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TM%20Today%2012-2-22&utm_term=TM%20Today.

Wow, I thought that article captured everything when they mentioned the rattlesnakes. …. then Buc-eye’s! The writer didn’t miss a thing. I may have to subscribe.

“I Have Friends In High Places” — Warren Buffett — December 2, 2022,

Wow! No paid sick days.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/biden-signs-bill-averting-rail-worker-strike-despite-lack-of-paid-sick-days.html

My son-in-law helped me understand this entire issue. I will explain later but in e-mails only; the issue is too sensitive.

Unemployment -- November, 2022, Data

Link here.

November, 2022, data, jobs report

stronger-than-expected jobs data;
jobs:

increased by 263,000 in November, 2022
forecast: 200,000 jobs

unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

Is Anyone Paying Attention? Chart Of The Day -- I'm Going Biking -- December 2, 2022

Link here.

Euros? For all practical purposes, the USD and the Euro are at parity.

For Those Who Say The Bakken Boom Is Over -- In The Past Two Days -- New Permits -- December 2, 2022

November 30, 2022	39438	C	Kraken	Orbit 24-13-12 1H	WMS	Burg
November 30, 2022	39439	C	Kraken	Orbit 24-13-12 2H	WMS	Burg
November 30, 2022	39440	C	Kraken	Orbit 24-13-12 3TFH	WMS	Burg
November 30, 2022	39441	C	Kraken	Orbit 24-13-12 4H	WMS	Burg
November 30, 2022	39442	C	Kraken	Orbit 24-13-12 5H	WMS	Burg
November 30, 2022	39443	L	MRO	Bunk 34-33H	DUN	Bailey
November 30, 2022	39444	L	MRO	Luptak 34-33TFH	DUN	Bailey
November 30, 2022	39445	L	MRO	Margery 24-33H	DUN	Bailey
November 30, 2022	39446	L	MRO	Claudia 24-33TFH	DUN	Bailey
December 1, 2022	39447	C	CLR	Edward 7-23H	DUN	Little Knife
December 1, 2022	39448	C	CLR	Edward 8-23H1	DUN	Little Knife
December 1, 2022	39449	C	CLR	Edward 9-23H1	DUN	Little Knife
December 1, 2022	39450	C	CLR	Edward 10-23H	DUN	Little Knife
December 1, 2022	39451	C	CLR	Edward 11-23H1	DUN	Little Knife
December 1, 2022	39452	C	CLR	Edward 12-23HSL	DUN	Little Knife

Vehicle-to-Grid Technology Could Make EVs an Asset to the Power Grid -- RBN Energy -- December 2, 2022

RBN Energy: vehicle-to-grid technology could make EVs an asset to the power grid. Archived.This should be an interesting read. Ford's CEO recently said he was surprised by the public's huge endorsement, enthusiasm, excitement for its F-150 Lightning. Folks aren't buying it for towing.

The debate around the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) has often centered on the burden the shift will put on the power grid, both in terms of overall load and particularly peak load. Those concerns amplify risks to grid stability and sufficiency, the ability to meet summertime spikes in power demand, and the need to accommodate a growing share of power generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar. Now, the introduction of bidirectional charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology — both of which are just beginning to enter the conversation around EVs — is likely to make the discourse even more complicated and interesting. In today’s RBN blog, we explain the basics of V2G tech, some ways in which it could one day add strength and reliability to the power grid, and some barriers to wider adoption.

We first looked at EVs and their effect on the power grid in an earlier post laying out the basics about charging infrastructure and the challenges that wider EV adoption will pose for the California and Texas energy and power markets. We looked at the sudden burst of attention that EVs have received this year, the impact of higher gasoline pricees on the EV market, and how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is incentivizing automakers to make more EVs in the U.S.

One of the hottest EVs in the market today is the Ford F-150 Lightning, the iconic brand’s first all-electric pickup. Ford said it planned to produce 40,000 vehicles/year when it was unveiled in May 2021 but boosted that target to 150,000/year less than a year later. Ford has said that demand was two to three times more than expected and that it already had reservations for more than 200,000 vehicles. And it’s not hard to see why even die-hard truck-lovers are signing up. The base model’s 426-horsepower output is more than a top-of-the-line 3500 Ram, Silverado, or F-350. It has a reported range of 320 miles — more than enough to comfortably drive from Dallas to Houston — alleviating some of the range anxiety. And, as we’ll get to later, for areas where backup power generation is highly sought after due to natural disasters, the Lightning’s bidirectional capability could be a lifesaver.

Ford: down 30% this past year (full year). An incredibly good stock for traders but one has to be nimble. I'm not (nimble) when it comes to investing / trading.

Devon: up almost 70% this past year (full year). Start here. August 7, 2021.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

TGIF, Part 3 -- December 2, 2022

Dow crashes; WTI doing just fine --

DVN: up 1.11%
MNRL up 0.64%
NOG: up 0.42%
CVX: up slightly;
COP: up slightly;
PSX: down 0.3%
MPC: down 0.74%
KMI: down 0.74%
ENB: down 1.2%
EPD: down 0.6%

Back To The Bakken; CLR: Full Speed Ahead, Damn The Torpedoes And Venezuela -- December 2, 2022

From yesterday, daily activity report:

Active rigs: 42.

Six new permits, #39447 - #39452, inclusive:

Operator: CLR
Field: Little Knife (Dunn)
Comments:

CLR has permits for six Edward wells, SESE 23-146-97,

to be sited 341 FSL - 343 FSL and between 357 FEL and 517 FEL

existing, #20363, 668, CLR, Edward 1-23H, Little Knife, t2/12; cum 336K 9/22;

plateaued early; maintained 1,500 bbls/month; nice well;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

34301, 5,580, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23H, North Fork, minimal production reported;
34305, 5,787, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23F, North Fork, minimal production reported;
38563, 3,659, Hess, GO-Haug-156-98-3031H-1, Wheelock, no production data;

Dry hole:

29088, dry/TA/PA, EOG, Van Hook 35-1319H,

was TA November 8, 2018 -- due to commodity prices

Today:

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $81.49.

Natural gas: $6.534.

Monday, December 5, 2022: 14 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 667 for the year.
38804, conf, Hunt, King 156-90-4-35H 3,
38799, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 12-27H,
37961, conf, Enerplus, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H,
29286, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 4-18-7TFH,

Sunday, December 4, 2022: 10 for the month, 119 for the quarter, 663 for the year.
38800, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 13-27H1,
37962, conf, Enerplus, Sausage 151-94-16B-21H,
29283, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 5-18-7TFH,

Saturday, December 3, 2022: 7 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 660 for the year.
38801, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 15-27H,
29284, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH,

Friday, December 2, 2022: 5 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 658 for the year.
38802, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 16-27HSL1,
37963, conf, Enerplus, Pancake 151-94-16B-21H,

The debate around the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) has often centered on the burden the shift will put on the power grid, both in terms of overall load and particularly peak load. Those concerns amplify risks to grid stability and sufficiency, the ability to meet summertime spikes in power demand, and the need to accommodate a growing share of power generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar. Now, the introduction of bidirectional charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology — both of which are just beginning to enter the conversation around EVs — is likely to make the discourse even more complicated and interesting. In today’s RBN blog, we explain the basics of V2G tech, some ways in which it could one day add strength and reliability to the power grid, and some barriers to wider adoption.

We first looked at EVs and their effect on the power grid in an earlier post laying out the basics about charging infrastructure and the challenges that wider EV adoption will pose for the California and Texas energy and power markets. We looked at the sudden burst of attention that EVs have received this year, the impact of higher gasoline pricees on the EV market, and how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is incentivizing automakers to make more EVs in the U.S.

One of the hottest EVs in the market today is the Ford F-150 Lightning, the iconic brand’s first all-electric pickup. Ford said it planned to produce 40,000 vehicles/year when it was unveiled in May 2021 but boosted that target to 150,000/year less than a year later. Ford has said that demand was two to three times more than expected and that it already had reservations for more than 200,000 vehicles. And it’s not hard to see why even die-hard truck-lovers are signing up. The base model’s 426-horsepower output is more than a top-of-the-line 3500 Ram, Silverado, or F-350. It has a reported range of 320 miles — more than enough to comfortably drive from Dallas to Houston — alleviating some of the range anxiety. And, as we’ll get to later, for areas where backup power generation is highly sought after due to natural disasters, the Lightning’s bidirectional capability could be a lifesaver.

Ford: down 30% this past year (full year).

Devon: up almost 70% this past year (full year). Start here. August 7, 2021.

TGIF, Part 2 -- December 2, 2022

Cold, link here.

The western half of the U.S. just observed its coldest November in 22 years! There's not a headline about it. This is pretty significant, especially during an energy crisis with sky-high inflation.

Heating oil: reserves to be released? Link here.

important, but no longer an emergency now that the mid-term elections are over.

Amazon streaming: link here.

NFL TNF, anoche, most anticipated game of the week?
only on Amazon Prime Video
Buffalo Bills crush Belichick without Brady: 24 - 10
next week, another huge game for Amazon's TNF: the Los Angeles - Las Vegas market (huge market), despite lousy records

LV Raiders (4 - 7) vs the LA Rams (3 - 9)

is it just me, or are the TNF match-ups now more exciting than the MNF match-ups?

most recent MNF match-up: Pittsburgh Steelers (24) vs Indianapolis Colts (17)

Steelers: 4 - 7; last in their division
Colts: 4 - 7; second in theirs

Dividends: this is all old news.

For investors: well, that didn't work out for many; link here;

Harvard University losses? Estimated to be $1 billion

at $100,000 / year = 10,000 full-ride scholarships / year

IRA withdrawals in 2022: new IRS reporting rules. Link here. Or search IRS-Form W-4R.

my first reaction was: "Oh, no."
but after further reflection: "Awesome."

NOG: also old news but for the archives -- NOG announces closing of core northern Delaware Basin bolt-on acquistion. Link here.

TTE: to cut UK investment by 25% after windfall tax. Link here.

TGIF, Part 1 -- December 2, 2022

There is so much happening today, I won't be able keep up. I will do the best I can.

Recession? what recession?

stronger-than-expected jobs data;
jobs:

increased by 263,000 in November, 2022
forecast: 200,000 jobs

unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%
market drops 300 points in pre-market trading

sell-off won't last; an over-reaction
but for the moment, a great buying opportunity

Looks a lot like a recession:

November ISM manufacturing PMI: crashing
from recent high of 90 to below 50; link here;

below 50: contraction (recession)
prices have peeled back for eight consecutive months
lowest levels since May, 2022

Germany: 46.2 vs 46.7 preliminary; deindustrialization is the new buzzword;

link here;

tag: inflation, transitory;

PMI, US November data, link here -- really, really alarming -- is this what drove JPow's "off-tthee-cuff" remarks yesterday -- suggesting a "pause" while re-assessing what's happening? This will be re-posted. This is the chart of the day; not the chart Javier Blas suggested as the chart of the day.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 47.7 in November of 2022 from a preliminary of 47.6, but continued to point to the first contraction in factory activity since June of 2020.

The fall was driven by declines in output and new orders. Demand conditions weakened in domestic and external markets, as new export orders fell further.

Employment growth slowed as pressure on capacity dwindled and backlogs of work contracted strongly.

On a more positive note, supply chains improved for the first time since October 2019, with price pressures softening as a result of reduced demand for inputs from firms. Input costs rose at the slowest rate for two years.