TGIF, Part 1 -- December 2, 2022

There is so much happening today, I won't be able keep up. I will do the best I can.

Recession? what recession?

• stronger-than-expected jobs data;
• jobs:
• increased by 263,000 in November, 2022
• forecast: 200,000 jobs
• unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%
• market drops 300 points in pre-market trading
• sell-off won't last; an over-reaction
• but for the moment, a great buying opportunity

Looks a lot like a recession:

• November ISM manufacturing PMI: crashing
• from recent high of 90 to below 50; link here;
  
• below 50: contraction (recession)
  
• prices have peeled back for eight consecutive months
• lowest levels since May, 2022
• Germany: 46.2 vs 46.7 preliminary; deindustrialization is the new buzzword; 
• link here;
  
• tag: inflation, transitory;

PMI, US November data, link here -- really, really alarming -- is this what drove JPow's "off-tthee-cuff" remarks yesterday -- suggesting a "pause" while re-assessing what's happening? This will be re-posted. This is the chart of the day; not the chart Javier Blas suggested as the chart of the day.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 47.7 in November of 2022 from a preliminary of 47.6, but continued to point to the first contraction in factory activity since June of 2020.

The fall was driven by declines in output and new orders. Demand conditions weakened in domestic and external markets, as new export orders fell further.

Employment growth slowed as pressure on capacity dwindled and backlogs of work contracted strongly.

On a more positive note, supply chains improved for the first time since October 2019, with price pressures softening as a result of reduced demand for inputs from firms. Input costs rose at the slowest rate for two years.

Meanwhile, business confidence remained historically subdued, as concerns regarding inflation and customer hesitancy weighed on optimism.

Housing:

• Blackstone: link here. Yesterday, mainstream media.
• Blog: link here. Two days ago.
• Tags: inflation, housing, transitory. 

Dividends:

• COP, PSX: in the bank. 

EV infrastructure:

• tells me all I need know about the transition to EVs
• link here;
• California had to do this during the summer; now Switzerland;
• Norway; chart of the day (Javier Blas);
• investors:
• EVs: not for me.
• Tesla: incentives! What's going on? 
• and, here; and, everywhere;
• the Tesla incentives won't last: Barron's; 
• US sales eroding; cheaper EVs arriving; CNBC;
• nice thread here;
  

China: starting to open up? Easier said than done. Another head fake?

SPR: isn't this interesting?

• lots going on here;
• Bloomberg; 
  

DUCs: link here.

Investors:

• KMI vs DVN: pretty easy decision -- both

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All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

Railroads: what the issue is all about. Great article.