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Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Inflation Watch -- Flat-Screen Televisions -- November 29, 2022

The other day I posted this but did not include the price of the "advertised" television:

Now that Thanksgiving is over and turkeys recede into the distant background, we can talk about inflation where it really counts: big-screen televisions. Look at inflation here.


So, what was the price of that Amazon Fire TV Omni QLED Series 4K? From the linked article:

I’ve been testing Amazon’s new 65-inch Fire TV Omni QLED Series 4K UHD smart TV. If you’re a casual TV watcher like me, the new Fire TV is easy to use and has great picture quality for the price.

And speaking of price, at the time of publication it’s on sale for $550, about $250 off its launch price, making it cheaper than last year’s model that Amazon still sells. There’s also a more expensive 75-inch model that costs $1,100.

But here in Texas, one can get a  65-inch flat-screen television for a whole lot less, and not even on sale. At Walmart, November 28, 2022, "everyday low price” at $378 vs $550 vs $800:


By the way, there's a reason why these televisions are so inexpensive, but I'll let readers think that out for themselves.

The TCL television pictured above: 

TCL at wiki:

TCL Technology (originally an abbreviation for Telephone Communication Limited) is a Chinese electronics company headquartered in Huizhou, Guangdong Province.
It designs, develops, manufactures, and sells consumer products including television sets, mobile phones, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and small electrical appliances.
In 2010, it was the world's 25th-largest consumer electronics producer. It became the second-largest television manufacturer by market share by 2019.
On 7 February 2020, TCL Corporation changed its name to TCL Technology.

Devon -- An Update, As It Were But Probably Nothing New -- November 29, 2022

As Twitter gets weirder and weirder (or is it, more and more weird), it behooves folks to be very, very circumspect in whom to follow. I follow only oil-related contributors with a few exceptions. I follow no politicians. Often someone I follow re-tweets a post originally tweeted by someone else. If it pertains to energy or oil, I am generally fine with that. However, a pet peeve is when the re-tweet is off-subject, especially political.

I assume that's how a lot of folks feel about the MDW blog: it's great as long as it sticks to the Bakken but the other stuff -- especially the political stuff -- is really, really unwelcome.

So, as Twitter gets more and more weird (and it some cases downright dumb and dumber) I find myself looking for new contributors to follow.

Devon Energy - blue check validated -- seems to be an account I will enjoy following. First link here. That was a "search." Under that "search": Devon Energy; Rock Creek Freak; Emily Patsy; and, then many others that we all know: Rystad Energy, and Josh Young, for example.

Surinam Update -- November 29, 2022

Guyana-Surinam is occasionally tracked here.

This is a non-story but it is posted:

  • for the archivees; and,
  • for the reason, it's a pretty good summary of operations to date.

*************************
Price Watch

Coke: just weeks ago, two-liter bottles of Coca-Cola were running $2.58 (Walmart) and $2.59 (Target).
yesterday I noted these two-liter bottles were priced at $1.88 (Target)
today: at our favorite high-end store where prices are slightly more expensive than Target, these two-liter bottles were priced at $1.69

Lettuce: after weeks, maybe two months, of being able too find iceberg lettuce anywhere, it finally appeared at Walmart; Target still does not have iceberg lettuce though it has a small amount of relatively expensive romaine lettuce

Chicken: apparently dropping in price faster than the price of used cars.

  • mixed news for Costco, I assume
  • it now seems a no-brainer to buy grocery store rotisserie than cooking one yourself

One Last One -- Then Going Biking -- Apple Store Opening At "Massive" American Dream Mall Outside NYC -- November 29, 2022

We're going to hit a high of 77°F today; partly cloudy but no rain. Perfect for biking.

Link here to the Apple story.

American Dream is the second-largest shopping mall in the U.S. behind the Mall of America in Minnesota.
Opened in 2019, the three-million-square-foot shopping destination has several indoor attractions, including the Nickelodeon Universe amusement park, DreamWorks Water Park, a year-round indoor skiing and snowboarding resort, an NHL-sized ice skating rink, a burger restaurant owned by YouTube star MrBeast, and more.
Apple's grand opening date at American Dream was first spotted by Michael Steeber, who recently released an iPhone app tracking all of the company's retail locations.

**********************
The Book Page

The best history of the story of the Arabic numeral zero (0) that I have found to date:

Fantastic Numbers And Where To Find Them, Antonio Padilla, c. 2022, pages 155 to 173. 

The book: part of my summeer, 2022, reading program

Another Open-Book Test For Investors: COP - Qatar Sign Off Fifteen-Year Deal To Supply Germany With LNG Starting In 2026 -- November 29, 2022

Conversion

Link here:

COP/Qatar to deliver:

  • two billion tonnes = 17,746,228,927 boe
  • 17,746,228,927 / 365 = 48,619,805 boepd
  • rounding 50 million boepd

Germany consumption:

  • Germany used 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021
  • 100 billion / 365 = 273,972,603 cubic meters / day
  • rounding = 300 million cubic meters / day
  • one cubic meter = 0.4049 tonnes
  • 273,972,603 x 0.4049 = 110,931,507 tonnes / day
  • 110,931,507 tonnes = 984,307,959 boe

So, assuming the math is correct, feel free to fact-check:

50 million boepd / 984,307,959 boepd = 4.9%.

That seems reasonable
. Now why could the journalist not have done this? We always get these articles without context, or denominators.

Updates 

Later, 11:54 a.m. CT, November 29, 2022, link here:

Original Post


I may have to re-think my "new money allocation" plan. See below.

To review:

  • a rolling 30-year horizon
  • new money allocation (slight change in past few weeks):
    • 35%: Buffet, blue-chip; dividend-paying;
      • current favorites: DE, CAT
      • more AAPL only when below $155 / share
    • 30%: beaten-down tech (mostly semiconductors)
    • 20%: energy (mostly oil; those with announced focus on shareholder return)
    • 10%: mRNA (mostly Big Pharma)
    • 5%: Daimler (might be considered part of Buffett, blue-chip)
  • invest new money twice a month regardless of overall market conditions
    • first week of the month
    • third week of the month

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

COP / Qatar: 15-year deal to supply Germany with LNG.

The deal, the first of its kind to Europe from Qatar's North Field expansion project, will provide Germany with 2 million tonnes of LNG annually, arriving from Ras Laffan in Qatar to Germany's northern LNG terminal of Brunsbuettel.
"(The agreements) mark the first ever long-term LNG supply agreement to Germany, with a supply period that extends for at least 15 years, thus contributing to Germany's long-term energy security," Saad al-Kaabi said in a joint news conference with ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance.

Favorite two words in that press release: "at least."

COP today: 

Covid-19: Right Now It's An "Asian Problem" -- November 29, 2022

Data links

Coronavirus: statistics

Japan, out of control?


Global, sorted by new cases, as reported two days ago:

  • Japan leads the list, almost double the next country down, South Korea


Global, new deaths, single day, two days ago:

  • Japan: 142
  • Russia: 51
  • Canada: 44
  • South Korea: 39
  • Indonesia: 35
  • Taiwan: 25
  • Philippines: 24
  • USA: 20
  • Hong Kong: 20
  • Chile: 20
  • .
  • .
  • .
  • .
  • China: 1 -- yup. One. One less than two. One more than zero.

Boeing Customer Goes Broke Is The Headline -- Orders Weren't Going To Get Filled Anyway -- A Non-Story -- Novmeber 29, 2022

Blame it on the bossa nova. 

Being reported elsewhere that "a Boeing customer" went broke / bankrupt.

It's a non-story.

The orders were never going to be filled anyway.

Here's one article on the story

CargoLogicAir, the U.K.-based all-cargo airline affiliated with Russia’s Volga-Dnepr Group, appears to be officially going out of business, collateral damage from the invasion of Ukraine.

The airline, which flew two Boeing 747-400 freighters out of London airports, ceased operations earlier this year after the U.K. government sanctioned majority shareholder Alexey Isaykin for signing a deal with the city of Moscow for Volga-Dnepr Airlines to maintain supply chain connectivity with countries in Asia and the Middle East.

On Wednesday, CargoLogic Air (CLA) appointed corporate restructuring firm Buchler Phillips to administer its insolvency ....

CLA was a small carrier, but the grounding of two extra-large freighters is part of the story behind the shortage of cargo capacity compared to pre-COVID times and why rates haven’t dropped more with weak demand. Sister company CargoLogic Germany, with a fleet of four Boeing 737 freighters, has also been grounded after filing for bankruptcy protection in May. And AirBridgeCargo, Volga-Dnepr’s scheduled airline that flew a large fleet of Boeing 747 freighters, has been shut down along with subsidiary Atran Airways.

Established in 2015, CLA had a spotty history. It reduced operations in 2019 under weak market conditions and closed down in early 2020 but regained its operating certificate in April when the pandemic created intense demand for freighter service. CLA employed about 130 before the sanctions and turned a profit in 2020. 

CLR's Bang Wells -- November 29, 2022

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. It's for my benefit only. If this is important to you, go the source. I remain inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Tracked here.

All CLR Bang wells updated two days ago.

Very, very nice wells; perhaps not monster wells but better than what we saw in the early days of the boom.

Number of Bang wells: I count fourteen (14). When I first started the blog in 2007 / 2009, I told folks that if you "had" one well in the Bakken, you would eventually have four, probably eight, possibly twelve and perhaps even more than that. The MDW blog was the first to "predict" / note that. 

Halo effect noted in the field. This well was refracked, 6/7/22 - 6/15/22: 7.7 million gallons of water; moderate frack; 89.1% fresh water; 10.2% proppant in that frack. 

Original report:

  • spud: 1/12/2007
  • td: 20,619'
  • td: 2/21/2008
  • days total drilling: 40.
  • days drilling lateral: 14.
  • kick-off:
    • began January 29, 2008
    • completed build on February 2, 2008
    • drilled out of casing oon February 7, 2008

Open-hole frack:

  • on/about March 12, 2008
  • 1,646 bbls of water
  • 70,067 pounds of sand

Stripper well: June 16, 2014.

Comment:

  • this same well -- if drilled in the Bakken today -- expectations --
  • spud to td: seven days, maybe six
  • vertical: 24 - 36 hours
  • curve build (kick off): 12 hours
  • lateral: three days
  • frack: seven days
    • 8 million gallons of water
    • 30 - 60 stages

Recent production and updated cumulative production:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 237K 8/22; huge halo effect;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20225174216755566218321792
BAKKEN8-2022151790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400

The Incredible "Waffle House / Hearty Breakfast" Pad Wells In The Antelope Oil Field -- Enerplus -- November 29, 2022

The Enerplus pads in the Bakken.

Hearty Breakfast (Enerplus, Antelope). In some places referred to as the "Waffle House" pad.

The Antelope: perhaps the best field in the Bakken.  

Enerplus is reporting out its "Hearty Breakfast" pad wells this week and next.

Look at the initial production of these wells from the Hearty Breakfast pad:

  • 37964, loc, ERF,  Omelet 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20223510450732
8-20226215490239
7-20221615025668
6-20222221030175
  • 37962, loc, ERF,  Sausage 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope, no production data,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20227050198008
8-20221835424281
7-20223775947114
6-202269099387

  •  37961, loc, ERF, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H, Antelope:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20221524821027
8-20221376323107
7-20221979238250
6-20224812265381
  • 37965, conf, Enerplus, Ham 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2022959213363
8-20224366664108
7-202233815725
6-20223770451226
5-20220776
  • 37966, conf, Enerplus, Bacon 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20223704655889
8-20224294463305
7-202223173807
6-20226494288234
5-20220204

On My Radar Scope Today -- November 29, 2022

Tee leaves: President Biden will go down in history as one of the better US presidents. 

  • depends how one defines "better"
  • "more effective" than many US presidents?
  • more statesmanlike?

The impending rail strike.

The triplepidemic: the seasonal flu, Covid-19, and RSV "chest cold" data is absolutely fascinating

  • Covid surging in China, Japan
  • mortality and serious disease from Covid in China? About 0.025%. Let that sink in.
  • Japan: huge surge in cases; tell me again the vaccine program in the US is not working
  • seasonal flu is particularly severe this year -- CNBC. Hospitals feeling the pressure ... again

NFL Monday night: pathetic

  • Thursday night: some great matchups
  • what changed? Amazon owns NFL TNF
  • Jeff Bezos: well-played

Pet peeve: blaming high prices on some food items on inflation;
in fact, other forces at work, though inflation pays a role
examples: iceberg lettuce; to some extent romaine lettuce; chickens; eggs

Coca-cola:

  • for the past several months, a year? Price of 2-liter Coke:
  • Target: $2.59
  • Walmart: $2.58
  • yesterday, Walmart: $1.88. What just happened.

Great Britain:

  • wind not blowing
  • renewables providing almost no electricity for the Brits right now

Apple vs Twitter spat:

  • probably not good for either
  • but mainstream media missing the big story
  • has to do with revenue
  • reminder: Apple destroyed Meta because of Apple's privacy rules

Tech, Russia:

  • the country's largest tech company exits Russia
  • winner: certainly not Russia

LNG, Europe: the story keeps getting bigger and bigger

  • winner: US. Huge story. Few following the story.

WTI: recovering.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: 78.66.

Natural gas: $7.268.

Wednesday, November 30, 2022: 72 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 654 for the year.
38844, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 7-19-30TFH,
38819, conf, CLR, Bonneville 7-26HSL,
38728, conf, Kraken, Raymond 16-21 2H,
38173, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 10-28H1,
37965, conf, Enerplus, Ham 151-94-16B-21H,
37945, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 14-11H2,

Tuesday, November 29, 2022
: 66 for the month, 103 for the quarter, 648 for the year.
38921, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 3-27HSL,
38843, conf, Slawson, PhatKat Federal 7-18-7TFH,
37947, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 12-11H1
37946, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 13-11H,

RBN Energy: more Gulf Coast LNG export capacity is on its way; where will the feedgas come from? Archived.

The first wave of Gulf Coast liquefaction and LNG export facilities was well-timed, coming as it did with fast-rising natural gas supplies in the Lower 48 and a slew of pipeline reversals and expansions that enabled billions of cubic feet a day of low-cost Marcellus-Utica gas supplies to reach Gulf Coast markets. Permian and Haynesville supplies helped too. The next wave of LNG development, which will kick off in earnest in 2024, may not go quite as smoothly, however. Global demand for LNG is there — there’s little doubt about that. But the next phase of export capacity growth may well be hemmed in by domestic factors, namely the timing and availability of gas supplies to the Gulf Coast due to potentially serious midstream constraints. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where the feedgas supply is likely to come from and what that will mean for pricing dynamics.